CAN WE SOLVE THIS HOBBY (SPORTS CARD) CRISIS? Video and Discussion

[Peter_Spaeth]

lolz

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

lolz

FAKE NEWS.

Everyone knows that cardboard only goes up.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

lolz

lots of doom and gloom in the hobby today. Investing in a t206 wagner would've been a tad bit smarter than the kobe card.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

lots of doom and gloom in the hobby today. Investing in a t206 wagner would've been a tad bit smarter than the kobe card.

I think a lot of newbies with money got talked into stuff like this. Could be wrong.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I think a lot of newbies with money got talked into stuff like this. Could be wrong.

im sure...will be curious to see what happens in the future? Guessing the chance of the MPLS Nat'l happening is about zero!!!

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

im sure...will be curious to see what happens in the future? Guessing the chance of the MPLS Nat'l happening is about zero!!!

IMO the whole BGS Black Label thing is rather foolish to begin with, and, if an expose on Blowout is to be believed, subject to favoritism if not outright corruption. Textbook example of buying the flip. Nothing wrong with that until you lose a million on it.

[BioCRN]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

lolz

Football and basketball cards crash quick and hard.

This recent explosion fueled by sneakerheads and fashion-flippers was heavy in on football and basketball. It's been a harder drop than in the past.

We did get some neat/weird stuff attempting to cater to that crowd, though. I am a fan some of the Topps Project 70 (and similar) issues to appeal to that demographic's sense of style.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

lolz

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by BioCRN

Football and basketball cards crash quick and hard.

This recent explosion fueled by sneakerheads and fashion-flippers was heavy in on football and basketball. It's been a harder drop than in the past.

We did get some neat/weird stuff attempting to cater to that crowd, though. I am a fan some of the Topps Project 70 (and similar) issues to appeal to that demographic's sense of style.

One interesting way to spend some time is looking on whatnot at the livestreams for cards there. If you want to see how circular and overabundant the modern market is, take a look. Very few sellers offering anything made before 2000, especially in the basketball area. You will also see just how ignorant modern dealers are. I had a hilarious exchange with a completely clueless seller who supposedly had vintage basketball cards. He asked what I was interested in. I wrote "Lakers cards." I then added: "Showtime era" so he wouldn't bother pulling LeBron cards.

He said OK and started to look for items, going on about Kobe Bryant, and it became apparent he had no idea what the Showtime era Lakers were.

I added "Magic and Big Game James."

He said "you mean like Orlando Magic?"

I said "No. Magic Johnson." He said, "oh, sure, everyone likes him. I have some Shaq cards." Which are 20 years later.

I logged off.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

lolz

Where did this info come from? Or this guy talking about himself....?

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Modern and Ultra Modern are in trouble, big trouble. Quality blue chip kind of like that post the other day vintage zero signs of trouble only clear skies ahead... up up and away territory.

Sorry, but this is a wrong-headed take. If there are no modern collectors anymore, who is your estate going to sell your cards to?

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[G1911]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

IMO the whole BGS Black Label thing is rather foolish to begin with, and, if an expose on Blowout is to be believed, subject to favoritism if not outright corruption. Textbook example of buying the flip. Nothing wrong with that until you lose a million on it.

They put together a pretty compelling case. Not that anyone bidding seems to care.

[jsfriedm]

Originally Posted by jsfriedm

It seems that PWCC's November Premier Auction has been cancelled. Unrelated coincidence, or symptom of the market downturn?

My mistake, looks like it was just a temporary software glitch.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Meanwhile, I get emails daily from Probstein about their investment worthy cards for sale. Mostly the predictable modern.

[Eric72]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

...I added "Magic and Big Game James."

He said "you mean like Orlando Magic?"

I said "No. Magic Johnson." He said, "oh, sure, everyone likes him. I have some Shaq cards." Which are 20 years later.

I logged off.

You didn't hang around to see the LeBron cards? (here you go, bro...Big Game James)

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by G1911

They put together a pretty compelling case. Not that anyone bidding seems to care.

Some of the denial posts in that thread were pathetic beyond words..

A classic of the genre. It may be better than any of the altered card posts.
https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1297069

[lowpopper]

It's just a hobby

[brianp-beme]

My vintage brain (which squeaks when I move too quickly) tells me that the Kobe card shown still is 50 to 100x too much.

Brian

[Snapolit1]

If you think some of these folks got slaughtered on modern cards, take a look at what has gone on with those idiotic NFTs. I'm stunned to learned that a little cartoon image of an ape smoking a cigar that you have no copyright or other legal rights in is not worth a million dollars. Shocked.

Vintage cards holding up like prime Beverly Hills real estate compared to some of this other dreck.

[rjackson44]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

If you think some of these folks got slaughtered on modern cards, take a look at what has gone on with those idiotic NFTs. I'm stunned to learned that a little cartoon image of an ape smoking a cigar that you have no copyright or other legal rights in is not worth a million dollars. Shocked.

Vintage cards holding up like prime Beverly Hills real estate compared to some of this other dreck.

Nfts steve lol

[Leon]

Originally Posted by brianp-beme

My vintage brain (which squeaks when I move too quickly) tells me that the Kobe card shown still is 50 to 100x too much.

Brian

+1. I was still feeling queasy for the guy that bought it for $795,000. Because tomorrow it could be worth $7950.00 .....Personally, I wouldn't pay $7.95 for it....unless I could immediately flip it for a profit. Yuck on all of that shiny stuff...but am glad folks are having fun, even if losing a boatload of money doing it.

NFTs remind me of pet rocks. LOL
.

[Fuddjcal]

Originally Posted by BioCRN

One of my main collections is an All-time Cubs collection (not anywhere near as high quality as other collectors) that required a lot of deep digging to find players I personally gate-kept as worthy.

You're not going to find a lot of Hal Jeffcoat fans in Cubs history, but the guy is notable because he went from 6 years of playing OF (not well) to pitching (also, not well) for the Cubs for a couple years over the course of a winter off. He was traded to CIN where he continued to pitch for a few years. Maybe if he was effective at either he would be more well known, but that's a unique Cubs player.

Deep diving into the history of the Cubs has extremely deepened my knowledge of the team beyond the existing literature.

You must have Kenny Hubbs of the Chicago Cubs?

[Fuddjcal]

Originally Posted by Leon

+1. I was still feeling queasy for the guy that bought it for $795,000. Because tomorrow it could be worth $7950.00 .....Personally, I wouldn't pay $7.95 for it....unless I could immediately flip it for a profit. Yuck on all of that shiny stuff...but am glad folks are having fun, even if losing a boatload of money doing it.

NFTs remind me of pet rocks. LOL
.

I've always felt the same way. Since 1988

[BioCRN]

Originally Posted by Fuddjcal

You must have Kenny Hubbs of the Chicago Cubs?

Hubbs 62-64 is part of the collection. I thought about adding the 1966 Dick Ellsworth because the photo is actually Hubbs (doh), but I passed on it after thinking about it a while.

[cubman1941]

I have both.

Originally Posted by BioCRN

Hubbs 62-64 is part of the collection. I thought about adding the 1966 Dick Ellsworth because the photo is actually Hubbs (doh), but I passed on it after thinking about it a while.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Leon

+1. I was still feeling queasy for the guy that bought it for $795,000. Because tomorrow it could be worth $7950.00 .....Personally, I wouldn't pay $7.95 for it....unless I could immediately flip it for a profit. Yuck on all of that shiny stuff...but am glad folks are having fun, even if losing a boatload of money doing it.

NFTs remind me of pet rocks. LOL
.

Well, as a Los Angeleno I would definitely pay $7.95 for a nice Kobe card. Heck, I'd even go as high as $16.95 for one that really caught my eye (as one did recently).

[brad31]

The way I look at it I traded paper with a president’s picture on it (that I had duplicates of) for cardboard with a baseball player’s picture on it that I didn’t have. Always a win in my book.

Downturns just mean cards I thought I could never afford I might be able to get.

[VoodooChild]

30 years from now, a 15 year old kid who buys packs and goes to card shows with his dad today will be 45. He'll have some disposable income and will feel nostalgic at some point. He has the "collectors itch" again so what is he going to buy? In 2052, a 2010 Trout RC will be considered vintage. Will he go the "blue chip" route with a Trout RC or will he consider trying to complete a 2020 Topps Chrome "color run" of some random player he researched on the internet? Is that really any different than deciding to buy Mantle RC or trying to complete a "back run" of a T206 common? Or will he try and find his own unique way to collect like our members here who collect vintage catchers or Howe McCormick stamped cards?
Who knows. Collectors will always collect in their own way. I think the hobby will be just fine. It's the so-called investors or flippers who will always get screwed and I think that's a good thing for us collectors.

[Touch'EmAll]

There are always 2 sides to a transaction.

Dude is getting hammered selling the Kobe card he bought on 3/8/2021 for $ 1,752,000. and sold on 8/28/2022 for $ 795,000.

What about the dude who SOLD it on 3/8/2021 for $ 1,752,000. ? Now we're talking headline record gains. I honestly don't know, but it's possible this seller is up way over $ 1.M on this Kobe card. Think he isn't happy?

I don't want to bash Modern, it can be cool, fun and profitable but more risky. A lot of folks go for it.

My preference is for Pre-War and Vintage. It is much more cool, fun, and luckily has been profitable.

[ValKehl]

Originally Posted by VoodooChild

30 years from now, a 15 year old kid who buys packs and goes to card shows with his dad today will be 45.

Jason, do you really believe there will still be card shows 30 years from now?

[VoodooChild]

Ha...no, I meant that the kid is 15 and going to card shows with his dad today in 2022. He'll be 45 in 2052. I have no idea how he'll be buying cards then.

[Bcwcardz]

To be honest, in 2052 I think a card show will be how a stamp show and collecting is today.


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[Kutcher55]

Modern is a cesspool compared to vintage. It’s no surprise to see it implode the way it has in terms of prices. Also the scammer quotient is off the charts with modern, ergo the “cesspool” comment. If you ever check out a Facebook scammer page, in addition to being an incredibly depressing scene, a high % of the posts relate to modern cards not to mention people not paying for “razzes” whatever the hell those things are.

That YouTube station has some good content on occasion. However they get people to click with headlines of pending disaster, economic collapse, sell everything etc. It’s the same strategy employed by many news outlets. Red ticker tape. BREAKING NEWS, that sort of thing. If it’s in all caps then it’s especially important.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Kutcher55

If you ever check out a Facebook scammer page, in addition to being an incredibly depressing scene, a high % of the posts relate to modern cards not to mention people not paying for “razzes” whatever the hell those things are.

Add me to the list of those with no clue what "Razzes" are!

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by VoodooChild

30 years from now, a 15 year old kid who buys packs and goes to card shows with his dad today will be 45. He'll have some disposable income and will feel nostalgic at some point. He has the "collectors itch" again so what is he going to buy? In 2052, a 2010 Trout RC will be considered vintage. Will he go the "blue chip" route with a Trout RC or will he consider trying to complete a 2020 Topps Chrome "color run" of some random player he researched on the internet? Is that really any different than deciding to buy Mantle RC or trying to complete a "back run" of a T206 common? Or will he try and find his own unique way to collect like our members here who collect vintage catchers or Howe McCormick stamped cards?
Who knows. Collectors will always collect in their own way. I think the hobby will be just fine. It's the so-called investors or flippers who will always get screwed and I think that's a good thing for us collectors.

OK, so if the 15 year old leaves Chicago on an eastbound train traveling at 50 miles per hour and the 45 year old leaves New York on a westbound train traveling at 55 miles per hour, how old are they in Cincinnati?

[BobC]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

Add me to the list of those with no clue what "Razzes" are!

I believe they are a new slang term for card "breaks", which was the original slang term they came up with to describe what they were doing.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by BobC

I believe they are a new slang term for card "breaks", which was the original slang term they came up with to describe what they were doing.

Thanks, Bob - what was wrong with the term "break" I wonder?

[BobC]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

Thanks, Bob - what was wrong with the term "break" I wonder?

LOL

I don't know, but thought the exact same thing you did. I guess breaks have been around long enough now that the new people entering the hobby want their own slang term to differentiate them from the older, previous generation.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by BobC

LOL

I don't know, but thought the exact same thing you did. I guess breaks have been around long enough now that the new people entering the hobby want their own slang term to differentiate them from the older, previous generation.

Us vintage collectors must truly be dinosaurs to them!

[JustinD]

I don’t think the sky is falling anytime soon.

I do 100% think that the pandemic pricing was a freak anomaly. I fully expect prices to return to 2019 levels more or less by the end of 2023. I also do not see that as a loss just a return to sanity and people who had nothing to do with it and were there for the quick buck going back to their previous whatever’s.

[Exhibitman]

As slang continuously evolves, perhaps it is time for a new term for those who engage in these modern card 'razzes'? How about "sucker"?

[BobC]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

Us vintage collectors must truly be dinosaurs to them!

LOL

I would think so to a lot of them.

[lowpopper]

just keep buying

[Stampsfan]

Originally Posted by jsfriedm

It seems that PWCC's November Premier Auction has been cancelled. Unrelated coincidence, or symptom of the market downturn?

It's up and running tonight. Closes November 17th.

[Lordstan]

Breaks refers to the process of breaking open unopened card product. The process is a person/number of persons buys all the cards of a certain team while the seller person "breaks" open a box or case of cards. So the buyer is gambling that there will be some expensive cards in whatever is being broken open.
A razz, razzle, waffle, and raffle are all slang for the same thing. A seller sells a raffle slot to win an item. I have seen cards, autos, and memorabilia items all sold this way. So a seller will list something like "10 spots @$30". Buyers put their name on the list by which specific number they want. Once all slots are full, everyone will pay and then an online random number raffle generator is used to choose a winner. Over the past couple years, people would run them before everyone paid, but recently there have been a lot of non payers, so now, if anyone doesn't not pay they raffle does not go forward.
These 2 things seem to be mostly Facebook driven, with some breaks happening on Instagram as well.
I think the new stuff is in trouble because a lot of the new people to the hobby were internet content creators who drummed up followings by creating excitement. Buying and holding vintage stuff is not exciting in an immediate sense for many. They want the immediate gratification of the flip. Buy it today, wait for the player to have a good game or two, and flip for a profit. It was all about the adrenaline rush at a time when boredom was an issue. Now that real life is starting to return, the rush is no longer as needed. Now that there are less buyers, the flipper/investor has far fewer people to flip to.

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[lowpopper]

but really tho...just keep buying

[Exhibitman]

How are breaks not illegal lotteries?

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

How are breaks not illegal lotteries?

Because everyone will get something. Not a lottery.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by parkplace33

Because everyone will get something. Not a lottery.

I was going to say that too. I really don’t know why it’s not legally a lottery, but here are four potential reasons:

1. Everyone wins. Some win more than others, but everyone gets something, so it’s a genuine quid pro quo transaction

2. The winners are not getting cash. They are getting a piece of personality. Maybe lotteries are limited to cash

3. The break pool may be too small. Is it a lottery if only 20-30 people participate

4. The “payout” is not derived by the the number of people paying in. For example, the more people who buy lottery tickets, the more the winning pot. That is not the case here, as the winning pot is finite and fixed before the event begins

[Lordstan]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

How are breaks not illegal lotteries?

My only thought is this. In a lottery there is a chance you could lose and get nothing. In a break, you are purchasing all the cards of a specific team in that box/case/whatever. There is no question that you will get what you purchased. The question is what specific cards will be in what you purchased.

Not sure if that somehow skirts around the legal definition of a lottery or not. While I am not an attorney, I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.