National pricing

[Snapolit1]

Will be real interesting. Anyone who doesn’t realize prices have come down hard in many corners of the hobby isn’t paying much attention. I’ve mostly been buying memorabilia, primarily ticket stubs and photos lately. Prices are down pretty hard on most of what I look at. Things that exploded up to 7-8k are now down 50% or more. If sellers are going to stick to prices from last winter and then add a National premium on to that …. going to hear a lot of stories like “good crowd …. didn’t sell as much as I wanted”. I dont envy sellers in this environment. Seems the economic pressures have now really impacted the hobby significantly. Will alway be the multi millionaires buying the $800,000 cards …. but the guy making $75,000 or $100,000 is not buying the way he used to. I see the same stuff sitting on ebay and sitting and sitting. No, no one is going to pay you $5000 for a ticket stub that just sold at an AH for $1700. No one is going to pay you $12,000 for the photo you bought last year for $2700.

[Jetsfan]

Although I won’t be attending, I wonder if the smart strategy this year would be to attend later in the week and see if sellers are more willing to negotiate (assuming they’re holding firm on prices earlier in the show). Of course, that would be if you’re not looking for super rare items which I’d think could go day 1.

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by Jetsfan

Although I won’t be attending, I wonder if the smart strategy this year would be to attend later in the week and see if sellers are more willing to negotiate (assuming they’re holding firm on prices earlier in the show). Of course, that would be if you’re not looking for super rare items which I’d think could go day 1.

Super rare will always sell. If it's a card people spend years chasing someone will open the wallet quickly. It's the PSA 4 and 5s that we see in every auction that are really hard to price in this market.

[brikks]

Hey all. This will be my first National as well. I'll be looking for 1914 Cracker Jacks and a few other pre-War vintage. I was planning to use VCP for a starting point on prices, but also hoping to get some good value for paying in cash. I'm more of a negotiator than haggler, so hoping good vibes are on my side.

[rjackson44]

The vintage market is strong no one is giving anything away no one ,,dont know what steve is looking at ??

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by rjackson44

The vintage market is strong no one is giving anything away no one ,,dont know what steve is looking at ??

I follow Gehrig cards to what some would say it a rather obsessive degree. It's like 95% of my collection. Prices have softened. In some cases rather significantly. Here's one rather striking example.

Heritage just sold a 1925 Gehrig Exhibits 3(MK) for $75,000
LOTG sold a 1925 Gehrig 3(MK) Exhibits in March 2021 for $160,000

Just like the stock market . . . not every stock moves in tandem.

[1954 topps]

I'm still seeing record sales on high grade 1950's stuff. Stars, commons, doesn't matter. High condition centered cards always have a strong market.

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Will be real interesting. Anyone who doesn’t realize prices have come down hard in many corners of the hobby isn’t paying much attention. I’ve mostly been buying memorabilia, primarily ticket stubs and photos lately. Prices are down pretty hard on most of what I look at. Things that exploded up to 7-8k are now down 50% or more. If sellers are going to stick to prices from last winter and then add a National premium on to that …. going to hear a lot of stories like “good crowd …. didn’t sell as much as I wanted”. I dont envy sellers in this environment. Seems the economic pressures have now really impacted the hobby significantly. Will alway be the multi millionaires buying the $800,000 cards …. but the guy making $75,000 or $100,000 is not buying the way he used to. I see the same stuff sitting on ebay and sitting and sitting. No, no one is going to pay you $5000 for a ticket stub that just sold at an AH for $1700. No one is going to pay you $12,000 for the photo you bought last year for $2700.

Thanks Steve for the insights. And if you can point that out to all the people on eBay who are outbidding me I would appreciate that too.

Sent from my SM-S906U using Tapatalk

[mrreality68]

Some prices are coming down but it is mot consistent and sometimes the next auction the prices look like they are going back up depending the bidders and card.
Right now it might seem a little soft for some but is that because of summers auction fatigue? Every summer there seems to be a ton of auctions at the same time plus Nationals and there is only so much money to go around for all those cards. I am finding that as I bid on cards another auction opens with cards that I want more than what I am currently bidding on(wish I could get them all) so I stop bidding on that card or I am not bidding at all until I see what is coming in the next auction so I do not miss out.

Related to eBay I find that many people put their collection on eBay just for viewing and not really interested in selling but just a place to show off so they put prices that no one would want to pay. I have seen many cards on their for years and years and literally seen them not only not sell but they raise the price

[puckpaul]

I think the February to April 2021 period was a peak speculative run in many parts of the market. Prices corrected in the next few months and to me appear to be steady to strong still since then. One reason is that many interesting cards in PSA 8-10s (thinking 80’s hockey and basketball) never gave people reason to grade them and they weren’t readily available before the price runup, so they hit a frenzy but then supply eventually (and PSA backup loosening) caught up and prices took a decent hit.

Of course the more rare and vintage, the less available and its hard to see too much evidence of the correction. Lower grade Ruths are still strong, but some of the prices in that period were a bit high perhaps. Something like a Gehrig is 3(mk) might have been a fever pitch auction, but excepting that, the Gehrig card remains strong. It probably has more volatility than others because it was so neglected for so long and has had a huge run.

That said, it’s hard to see that the general harsh repricing of equities and bonds and many assets will not spillover to take some of the fluff out of cards here. Thus far it still seems generally strong.

[Johnny630]

Ten years from now we will all be looking at these prices and saying to ourselves man that was cheap back then.

All the good stuff is going up up and away. Get it before it's out of reach.

[Touch'EmAll]

I would bet the big '52 Mantle at Heritage will help fuel vintage prices. Don't see how the Mantle auction would have a negative affect of nice vintage stuff. I am still having hard time pulling the trigger on similar such cards I used to buy, but now the gap may even widen. My recent motto, "don't sell what you have, just be sure to keep it, 'cause you probably aren't going to replace it."

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

Some prices are coming down but it is mot consistent and sometimes the next auction the prices look like they are going back up depending the bidders and card.
Right now it might seem a little soft for some but is that because of summers auction fatigue? Every summer there seems to be a ton of auctions at the same time plus Nationals and there is only so much money to go around for all those cards. I am finding that as I bid on cards another auction opens with cards that I want more than what I am currently bidding on(wish I could get them all) so I stop bidding on that card or I am not bidding at all until I see what is coming in the next auction so I do not miss out.

Related to eBay I find that many people put their collection on eBay just for viewing and not really interested in selling but just a place to show off so they put prices that no one would want to pay. I have seen many cards on their for years and years and literally seen them not only not sell but they raise the price

It is not just eBay. Check out the auction section here. We have a guy that starts stuff off at prices WAY higher than eBay BIN listings that rearely if ever sell. I am waiting for hm to list a half bottle of Crisco for $12 plus shipping and say it is below eBay comps.