Kris Bryant overrated?... too soon for they hype?

[packs]

Don't know what the future holds for Bryant but everyone hyped Puig. The guy had 66 K's vs 72 hits last year and looked awful. Then again, Trout strikes out a ton too.

My humble opinion: Bryant ends up a good player, never great. He will surpass Strasburg's lame duck career but neither will live up to the price of their rookie cards.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by packs

Don't know what the future holds for Bryant but everyone hyped Puig. The guy had 66 K's vs 72 hits last year and looked awful. Then again, Trout strikes out a ton too.

My humble opinion: Bryant ends up a good player, never great. He will surpass Strasburg's lame duck career but neither will live up to the price of their rookie cards.

I don't think that Bryant will crash and burn, but I just don't see him as a top tier player. His card prices just don't reflect the uncertainty that he left on the table with 199 SO (with 77BB) in 650 PA.

[sbfinley]

No, he's not overrated. The strikeouts are an issue that he'll have to rectify, but I project him as a superstar for the next decade plus. Look at his stat lines from Low A to the majors, that kind of quick movement from class to class with little to no regression or struggle just doesn't happen. As for the strikeouts, he will spend the next 4-5 years in the lineup surrounded by Rizzo, Hayward, Schwarber, and Soler (who I would gamble could be the best of the bunch) which will mean plenty of pitches to hit. The bust talk was all the rage with Harper last off season and he only turned out an MVP season. Give the kid some time.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by sbfinley

No, he's not overrated. The strikeouts are an issue that he'll have to rectify, but I project him as a superstar for the next decade plus. Look at his stat lines from Low A to the majors, that kind of quick movement from class to class with little to no regression or struggle just doesn't happen. As for the strikeouts, he will spend the next 4-5 years in the lineup surrounded by Rizzo, Hayward, Schwarber, and Soler (who I would gamble could be the best of the bunch) which will mean plenty of pitches to hit. The bust talk was all the rage with Harper last off season and he only turned out an MVP season. Give the kid some time.

Again, Harper isn't even 23 yet. It makes sense to give him time to adjust. Harper's BABIP is still lower than Brant's. (Bryant .378 vs Harper's.369). Bryant's going to have to keep his BABIP very high to compensate for his high SO. Bryant didn't just have a high Strike Out year. He now holds the record for most SO by a rookie. So unless he can manage to put the ball in play more as his BABIP starts to average out as he gets older than he will be just another Ryan Howard.

Think about it this way of the Top 30 BABIP in 2015 he ranks 5th, but his BA of .275 is second lowest to Anthony Gose's .254 and his BABIP was only .352 with a 27.1% SO% (compared to Bryant's 30.6%). With such a high BABIP his average should reflect it, but it doesn't. I really think the most comparable rookie year of the last 15 years would be Mark Reynold's 2007 season.

Mark Reynold's:
Games:111 PA:414 HR:17 R:62 RBI:62 SB:0 BB%:8.9% K%31.2 % BABIP:.378 AVG:.279 OBP:.349 SLG:.495

Kris Bryant:
Games:151 PA:650 HR:26 R:87 RBI:99 SB:13 BB%11.8 % K%30.6 % BABIP:.378 AVG:.275 OBP:.369 SLG:.488

He ranks 23rd of all rookies since 2000 in the highest K%, but 6th with players with more than 100 games in their RY. There is only one with more games and that is Michael Taylor.

The only stat that seems to make him look great is that he Ranks 3rd in WAR for Rookies since 2000.

I just can't fathom putting so many eggs in that basket with just one season under his belt and with so many negatives in his batting.

[packs]

Bryant had more strikeouts than hits last year and still managed to hit .275. But that will not happen consistently and we've seen what a stable BABIP did to Austin Jackson, who has floundered, though he isn't the hitter Bryant is.

If Bryant can manage to still hit above 270 he'll be a super star. But if he can't, he'll probably drop down to the 230 / 240 range and be a Mark Reynolds.

[Rookiemonster]

I was not impressed by what I seen out of Bryant . I was much more impressed by joc pederson . You never really know what a player will be . To many variables .

Look over the history of young guns in baseball. So many fizzle out fast .

[packs]

Pederson really struggled the second half of the season. But he does have a defensive upside that makes him valuable. I hope he rebounds, but I don't think he'll ever hit for average.

[meatloaf]

Originally Posted by packs

Don't know what the future holds for Bryant but everyone hyped Puig.

+1

Also, baseball over hypes prospects more than any other sport IMO. I would put my money in other sports.

[quinnsryche]

I think any player with less than 3-4 years experience is over-hyped. Just too soon to know. Also, any time a Cubs, Red Sox or Yankees player has even a decent year, he's the next greatest thing (ESPECIALLY the Cubs). Anyone remember Shawon Dunston, Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, Starlin Castro or the hundreds of other prospects that never lived up to the hype? Not saying Bryant will or won't, you just have to be very careful as it seems 99% of the next greatest player never is.

[packs]

To be fair, Starlin Castro is a 3 X All Star before the age of 25. That's pretty good.

[quinnsryche]

When he's not asleep in the field. If he's a 3X All Star that doesn't say much for NL shortstops. Joe Maddon could only take 1 year of his pathetic attitude before he had him shipped out.

[packs]

Sure but you can't call the guy a bust. He's still only 26.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by quinnsryche

I think any player with less than 3-4 years experience is over-hyped. Just too soon to know. Also, any time a Cubs, Red Sox or Yankees player has even a decent year, he's the next greatest thing (ESPECIALLY the Cubs). Anyone remember Shawon Dunston, Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, Starlin Castro or the hundreds of other prospects that never lived up to the hype? Not saying Bryant will or won't, you just have to be very careful as it seems 99% of the next greatest player never is.

Phil Plantier and Kevin Maas come immediately to mind. Corey Patterson for the Cubs as well.

[Laxcat]

Don't forget Gary Scott and Todd Benzinger

[packs]

I'm with you guys on the skepticism but we're not talking about the same thing. Bryant won ROY. Phil Plantier, Kevin Maas, et all, they never had comparable success at the major league level. It's not really an apples to apples comparison.

Instead I'd parade the cautionary tales of guys like Geovany Soto, and Angel Berroa, and Bob Hamlin.

[JTysver]

I would go with someone with raw ability and lower age to gauge future ability.

Carlos Correa is the gem from last year's rookie crop in my opinion. He is so young and his play is at a higher level. I might also add that Miguel Sano also has an amazing amount of pop in his bat (more than Bryant) but he too struck out quite a bit.
That being said, Bryant did destroy minor league pitching but he struck out about 1 in every 3 at bats despite hitting over .320.

Being a Mets fan, I rave about Michael Conforto. He hit the second hardest ball (by exit velocity) last season and the ball I saw him hit in Atlanta (a line drive HR that was the hardest hit ball I'd ever seen). Plus his strikeouts/BB ratio wasn't outrageous.

I don't buy into the Bryant hype, and I think the strikeouts are a big problem with him. I kind of feel that will keep him from a lofty batting average. I expect him to have decent power, but never reach the potential people expect from him. At some point, the strikeouts are just going to get in his way.

[jason.1969]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Phil Plantier and Kevin Maas come immediately to mind. Corey Patterson for the Cubs as well.

And Cubs fans may still have their huge stacks of 89 UD Jerome Walton and Dwight Smith high numbers!

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