Another card investment thread

[conor912]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

So people now want to invest in baseball cards without being card collectors and without any knowledge of what they should buy. Does that concern anyone?

This was my first thought. This is not good. Once people who have no idea what they're doing start getting in, it usually signifies a problem.

[rjackson44]

leons card is gorgeous

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by conor912

This was my first thought. This is not good. Once people who have no idea what they're doing start getting in, it usually signifies a problem.

Quoted for truth

[The Nasty Nati]

My opinion. Invest in the bluechip sets of T206, 1933 Goudey, and 1952 Topps. People will always come back to those sets. Of the 3 sets, I think Goudey have the greatest potential for growth. Many of the key Hofers are undervalued IMO.


And if you're looking outside of the Big 3 sets, I think a good investment is picking up the true rookie cards of HoFers. Oldcardboard.com has a great list of HOF rookie cards. Postcards and Exhibit RCs that were once ignored are now seeing a surge and they will only go up. Collectors more and more care about first appearances and I think the Bowman Chrome Prospect craze has fueled that.

[groundskeeper]

I would not "invest" in cards.
THAT SAID, there are ones I clearly think are going to decline, long run.

Mickey Mantle has almost no appeal for people of my generation. Zero. The prices people pay on those cards are purely Baby Boomer supported.

Cobb seems like a blue chip legend but if even a TASTE of the social justice movement gets into this hobby, he is going to take a serious hit. I know I avoid Cap Anson cards for this reason. Try selling that in 20 years for a profit (over inflation).

I bought Cy Young as one of my first cards because it seemed cheap for a guy with contemporary name recognition (CY Young Award hit the news every year), and he will never lose the most wins record. But I think there's a ceiling to his appeal, and it is approaching.

Ruth is the king. The gold standard.

[The Nasty Nati]

Originally Posted by groundskeeper

Mickey Mantle has almost no appeal for people of my generation. Zero. The prices people pay on those cards are purely Baby Boomer supported.

Fair point, but even when the baby boomer generation dies off, kids of baby boomers will still want to collect Mantle as it was their father's favorite player of that generation.

And I think 30 years from now, the 1952 Mantle will always be a top 5 card in the hobby. That card single-handedly started the card collecting craze of the 1980s/90s. Now kids from the 1980s/90s are in their 30s and 40s and they will have spending power for quite some time.

[Golfcollector]

If you want a rare cobb you might be able to offer around 10K. I think the seller may take it (and no, I am not the seller and do not know the seller)

https://www.ebay.com/itm/PSA-7-TY-CO...kAAOSwGIZcU24N

[groundskeeper]

Originally Posted by The Nasty Nati

Fair point, but even when the baby boomer generation dies off, kids of baby boomers will still want to collect Mantle as it was their father's favorite player of that generation.

And I think 30 years from now, the 1952 Mantle will always be a top 5 card in the hobby. That card single-handedly started the card collecting craze of the 1980s/90s. Now kids from the 1980s/90s are in their 30s and 40s and they will have spending power for quite some time.

I can only speak for myself, but as someone in his 30s whose father liked Mickey Mantle, I will never buy that card anywhere in the same universe as the current prices. He's below Dimaggio on the collector scale to me. I got Mantle in my Ted Williams-tier price range. Seeing the 52 sell in the MILLIONS.....uhhh, that is going to crash. If I didn't know any prices, I'd think a 52 Mantle PSA 7 would be worth about $8,500 to me right now.

[icollectDCsports]

One word: Plastics!

[Huysmans]

Originally Posted by groundskeeper

I can only speak for myself, but as someone in his 30s whose father liked Mickey Mantle, I will never buy that card anywhere in the same universe as the current prices. He's below Dimaggio on the collector scale to me. I got Mantle in my Ted Williams-tier price range. Seeing the 52 sell in the MILLIONS.....uhhh, that is going to crash. If I didn't know any prices, I'd think a 52 Mantle PSA 7 would be worth about $8,500 to me right now.

Prices reflect that you are definitely in the minority regarding this thinking. There seems to be no cap on Mantle's value, and to say they will "crash", with all due respect, seems utterly ridiculous.

[ALBB]

Wow, everybody and the mother got opinions on how to spend 10 grand of somebody else's money !

Me Too - I say find an incredibly high end graded( 8's and 9's .or higher PSA registry top 5 ??) complete set from early 70s …..there will always be somebody somewhere,someday that will pay big bucks for that type of thing

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by groundskeeper

I would not "invest" in cards.
THAT SAID, there are ones I clearly think are going to decline, long run.

Mickey Mantle has almost no appeal for people of my generation. Zero. The prices people pay on those cards are purely Baby Boomer supported.

Cobb seems like a blue chip legend but if even a TASTE of the social justice movement gets into this hobby, he is going to take a serious hit. I know I avoid Cap Anson cards for this reason. Try selling that in 20 years for a profit (over inflation).

I bought Cy Young as one of my first cards because it seemed cheap for a guy with contemporary name recognition (CY Young Award hit the news every year), and he will never lose the most wins record. But I think there's a ceiling to his appeal, and it is approaching.

Ruth is the king. The gold standard.

Agreed on Ruth. I think Gehrig and Jackie Robinson have transcendent appeal too.

[griffon512]

Originally Posted by groundskeeper

I would not "invest" in cards.
THAT SAID, there are ones I clearly think are going to decline, long run.

Mickey Mantle has almost no appeal for people of my generation. Zero. The prices people pay on those cards are purely Baby Boomer supported.

Cobb seems like a blue chip legend but if even a TASTE of the social justice movement gets into this hobby, he is going to take a serious hit. I know I avoid Cap Anson cards for this reason. Try selling that in 20 years for a profit (over inflation).

I bought Cy Young as one of my first cards because it seemed cheap for a guy with contemporary name recognition (CY Young Award hit the news every year), and he will never lose the most wins record. But I think there's a ceiling to his appeal, and it is approaching.

Ruth is the king. The gold standard.

If you were investing in Confederate statues I'd worry. I wouldn't overly worry about a similar dynamic on vintage baseball cards/players. If it does hit vintage cards there will be much bigger issues to be concerned about than our hobby.

[joshuanip]

Originally Posted by conor912

This was my first thought. This is not good. Once people who have no idea what they're doing start getting in, it usually signifies a problem.

For me not one bit. TPGs have limitations, but they are commoditizing (raw cards into value buckets) makes it easier to assign value, thus adding liquidity, thus adding value. In fact, the more we get to i) a market where graded cards are the standard and ii) price indications as a result of online sales research (ebay and auctions), the more our cards will retain value and withstand future market dislocations.

The fact that people are interested and looking into card collecting is a GOOD thing, not something to be weary of. (I'd be more weary of having no where to hide in this asset bubble environment we are in.)

[conor912]

Originally Posted by joshuanip

For me not one bit. TPGs have limitations, but they are commoditizing (raw cards into value buckets) makes it easier to assign value, thus adding liquidity, thus adding value. In fact, the more we get to i) a market where graded cards are the standard and ii) price indications as a result of online sales research (ebay and auctions), the more our cards will retain value and withstand future market dislocations.

The fact that people are interested and looking into card collecting is a GOOD thing, not something to be weary of. (I'd be more weary of having no where to hide in this asset bubble environment we are in.)

I pretty much agree with all of this... within the context of modest, steady growth. But when a market becomes so hot so fast that Joe Schmoe down the street starts asking about what cards to "invest in", that has historically signified the end of the food chain. That's when the insiders dump everything on Joe for inflated prices and leave him with the shit end of the stick. That said, I think you make an interesting point that grading has caused a bit of a paradigm shift which may very well be a permanent disruption. Only time will tell.