Commerce Comet's 1952 Topps #311 meteoric rise in value

[brunswickreeves]

I was on the home stretch of school, to brain break, I began analyzing the prior 3 years of available sales trend data on the beloved 1952 Topps #311 Mickey Mantle card. I put that analysis away until recently. Wondering what if instead, I dropped out and invested my tuition dollars into a '52 Mantle. Analysis is attached. I could have bought 2 PSA 5.5s at $43K each, which has recently sold in that grade for $124K, each. That's an unrealized PROFIT of $162K. Anyone leave money on the table, or get in at the right time? What's the future hold for this card?!

[MattyC]

Will always be a classic baseball card that endures the test of time. The prettiest copies regardless of grade will always be sought after by collectors.

[swarmee]

In one year the PSA 10 Michael Jordan '86 Fleer went from $45K to $750K, if you want to talk unrealized profits. And PSA 10 base Kobe and LeBron 2012 Prizm cards went up tens of thousands of percents.

Ergo, the '52 Topps Mantle must still be a bargain. ;-)

[ullmandds]

I sold my 51 bowman mantle...at the worst possible time...shortly before the run up...I transferred the 20K+ gain to another board member!

[Yoda]

I auctioned off a 1915 Sporting News Ruth RC in a Mastro auction about 20 yrs ago. It was graded personally by Derek Grady when he was with SGC and received a grade of 5.5. The nightmares continue.

[russkcpa]

Hi Brunswick,
Smartest move I ever made:
I paid $60K for my PSA 6 and $120K for my PSA 7. Those prices include BP. PSA had to retire my original PSA 7 SN and re holder with new SN due to a counterfeit example that was being circulated.
I am a big fan of eye appeal in all my cards. This iconic card will always continue to appreciate. This is not a 96 Kobe with 10 million Pop 10's There are millions of card investors who want a piece of the 52 Mantle and will always be looking to buy one. I turned down $185K for my 6 back in March.
Check out the PSA 8 in Memory Lane auction...... https://memorylaneinc.com/site/bids/...e?itemid=60642 Chart buster
BTW....I graduated from Babson in 1976 with a BS in Accounting. Tuition was $950 a semester. Unfortunately I had to commute and lost so much of the college experience. But I did get to drive "Thunder Road" every day. I worked at an insurance agency as a bookkeeper on the corner of Beaver and Washington that later became a Bertucci's.
Dumbest move I ever made:
Investing a great deal into stem cell biotech stock back in 2010 called
Athersys (symbol ATHX). Had I put that money into AMZN and AAPL I would be retired instead of celebrating my 43rd anniversary as a CPA. I guess we all do stupid things.
Best of luck to you
Russ

[investinrookies]

amazing cards.

[JimC]

Yes those two Mantles are beasts.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by JimC

Yes those two Mantles are beasts.

Agreed 2 Great Cards from Eye Appeal to Centering

[Jdoggs]

Originally Posted by russkcpa

Hi Brunswick,
Smartest move I ever made:
I paid $60K for my PSA 6 and $120K for my PSA 7. Those prices include BP. PSA had to retire my original PSA 7 SN and re holder with new SN due to a counterfeit example that was being circulated.
I am a big fan of eye appeal in all my cards. This iconic card will always continue to appreciate. This is not a 96 Kobe with 10 million Pop 10's There are millions of card investors who want a piece of the 52 Mantle and will always be looking to buy one. I turned down $185K for my 6 back in March.
Check out the PSA 8 in Memory Lane auction...... https://memorylaneinc.com/site/bids/...e?itemid=60642 Chart buster
BTW....I graduated from Babson in 1976 with a BS in Accounting. Tuition was $950 a semester. Unfortunately I had to commute and lost so much of the college experience. But I did get to drive "Thunder Road" every day. I worked at an insurance agency as a bookkeeper on the corner of Beaver and Washington that later became a Bertucci's.
Dumbest move I ever made:
Investing a great deal into stem cell biotech stock back in 2010 called
Athersys (symbol ATHX). Had I put that money into AMZN and AAPL I would be retired instead of celebrating my 43rd anniversary as a CPA. I guess we all do stupid things.
Best of luck to you
Russ

$185k for your psa 6 52 mantle last March is a great offer considering a nice 52 mantle psa 6.5 just sold for $132k in heritage auctions last night.

[Johnny630]

I think it’s do for a 20-30% correction short term end of 23-25 especially in lower grades below 1-6. In the long run it’s only going up.

[investinrookies]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

I think it’s do for a 20-30% correction short term end of 23-25 especially in lower grades below 1-6. In the long run it’s only going up.

If Im not mistaken prices have already come down 20-30% on these in most cases. Not sure they fall much farther but suppose they could? I think nows a great time to buy one personally. In the long run its only going up.

[Seven]

Originally Posted by samosa4u

Go after the 51' Bowman Mantle and Mays rookies instead. Way better investment, IMO.

Problem is, I'm not really looking at it from an "investment" perspective. 51 Bowman is another issue I need, but it's not like I'm ever going to sell it after I buy it in the future, unless of course, it was for an upgrade of the same card.

Originally Posted by investinrookies

If Im not mistaken prices have already come down 20-30% on these in most cases. Not sure they fall much farther but suppose they could? I think nows a great time to buy one personally. In the long run its only going up.

I have noticed the 52 Bowman and 53 topps starting to flatline a bit, haven't paid much attention to the 52 topps because even a 25% drop still makes it out of my price range for now. thankfully collecting is a life long process.

[russkcpa]

Originally Posted by Jdoggs

$185k for your psa 6 52 mantle last March is a great offer considering a nice 52 mantle psa 6.5 just sold for $132k in heritage auctions last night.

I was not crazy about that card's eye appeal and it showed in the hammer price. All PSA 6-6.5-7's are not the same.

[investinrookies]

Nice PSA 5 up at REA, will it bring a new record high for a 5? Even average examples for the grade continue to sell at higher prices.

[Foo3112]

I am seeing some here say that prices have dropped but that's not entirely accurate. Pretty much everything has dropped - however - even at the "dropped" prices, they are still higher than pre-covid prices so they have actually raised. Look at the 86 Jordan for example. They were selling at 30K during the 2019 National in late July of that year. Then by December, they were selling at 40K. Even if they have "dropped" in price from those two or four 700K sales, that is still a MASSIVE win for those who bought low.

I feel like the Mantles graded in the 5, 6 & 7 range are very underpriced - especially when you compare at the last few sales in PSA. How does a PSA 1 sell for 25-30K but then something like a 6 sells only between 110 & maybe $130K.

There is currently a 6 for auction at Heritage. I think it will hit the 120K mark. I think the 6's will be at the 300K before 2030 comes around. Just my guess seeing the popularity in cards and the demand for the 52 Mantle. As someone mentioned, there will always be people with deep pockets who want one. Feels like almost every new sale outsells the previous one when color and centering are similar.

[Seven]

Originally Posted by brunswickreeves

In 2018 I was on the home stretch of my MBA at Babson. To brain break, I began analyzing the prior 3 years of available sales trend data on the beloved 1952 Topps #311 Mickey Mantle card. I put that analysis away until recently. Wondering what if instead, I dropped out and invested my tuition dollars into a '52 Mantle. Analysis is attached. I could have bought 2 PSA 5.5s at $43K each, which has recently sold in that grade for $124K, each. That's an unrealized PROFIT of $162K. Anyone leave money on the table, or get in at the right time? What's the future hold for this card?!

I have no clue what the future holds for this Card.

I remember getting back into collecting roughly a year and a half before the Pandemic. I was looking at Prices on the 52 Mantle. I believe A's and 1's were going anywhere between 8-12 thousand. Not that I could afford that at that time, but I said to myself "Well even if it doubles in Value over the next decade, I should still be able to swing it by the time I'm in my early 40s, as long as I save properly"

It's gone insane, to the point where I question how much I want one. Sure I would love to eventually complete my Mantle run but now 1's are selling for 30K. I would have to sell a kidney to purchase that. And even then It poses the question of "Would I rather have the one Mantle or a Cobb, Gehrig, Ruth, Mathewson, and Mays?"

I understand the card is iconic, and a staple of the vintage hobby, but I don't understand it. Yes the high numbers are more rare, Yes it is Mickey Mantle but there are thousands of 1952 Mantles out there, hell I'd wager there is more than we think in the hands of older collectors who never got theirs graded. Just doesn't make sense to me.

[samosa4u]

Originally Posted by Seven

It's gone insane, to the point where I question how much I want one. Sure I would love to eventually complete my Mantle run but now 1's are selling for 30K. I would have to sell a kidney to purchase that. And even then It poses the question of "Would I rather have the one Mantle or a Cobb, Gehrig, Ruth, Mathewson, and Mays?"

I understand the card is iconic, and a staple of the vintage hobby, but I don't understand it. Yes the high numbers are more rare, Yes it is Mickey Mantle but there are thousands of 1952 Mantles out there, hell I'd wager there is more than we think in the hands of older collectors who never got theirs graded. Just doesn't make sense to me.

Yep, and it doesn't make any sense to me either. Why would anyone want to spend thirty thousand USD on a butt-ugly PSA 1 Mantle when you can buy a bunch of other cards with that money and watch them double over the years?

[Seven]

Originally Posted by samosa4u

Yep, and it doesn't make any sense to me either. Why would anyone want to spend thirty thousand USD on a butt-ugly PSA 1 Mantle when you can buy a bunch of other cards with that money and watch them double over the years?

I also look at it this way, most people that have 30 grand to drop on a card, probably have a good amount of disposable income to the point where they can stretch going for a 2 or maybe a 3. I look at it this way, when I'm older and sitting on a house with no mortgage, that's when I'll probably look to buy a #311, unless the prices come down of course, which knowing Mantle if they do, it won't be by much.

[samosa4u]

Go after the 51' Bowman Mantle and Mays rookies instead. Way better investment, IMO.

[investinrookies]

Originally Posted by samosa4u

Go after the 51' Bowman Mantle and Mays rookies instead. Way better investment, IMO.

People have been saying that for years, I even say it from time to time. Than I look at VCP, the trend lines, and every passing auction, only to see the gap continue to grow. Nothing will stop this trend in my opinion...simply to much demand and to many people willing to pay up for one.

[cardsagain74]

Originally Posted by Seven

I understand the card is iconic, and a staple of the vintage hobby, but I don't understand it. Yes the high numbers are more rare, Yes it is Mickey Mantle but there are thousands of 1952 Mantles out there, hell I'd wager there is more than we think in the hands of older collectors who never got theirs graded. Just doesn't make sense to me.

"Thousands" implies that the card is actually a lot easier than what people are willing to pay, and I don't think that's the case. About 1700 PSA Mantles out there and many fewer SGC/BVG. And even if there are more raw copies in the hands of older collectors than expected, I doubt most would ever be up for sale.

At least not while those guys are still alive. And even then, I'd bet that every new Mantle that would hit the marketplace is replaced by someone who was finally able to get one (and puts it away in his own collection for good, as so many do with that card).

So I think the '52 T Mantle has been fairly accurately priced and valued, both pre and post pandemic bump

[MVSNYC]

Russ, incredible pair. You still own both?

[russkcpa]

Originally Posted by MVSNYC

Russ, incredible pair. You still own both?

Yes I do.
I do not believe we will ever see the bubble that other collectors saw with more modern cards. For bubble comparison I'll look at my youngest card investment which is a 1996 Kobe Bryant Topps Number 138 PSA 10 that I paid $3,300 for after it peaked at $10K. I felt that was just about as low as it would go. That card is now in the $2,300 to $2,500 and I'm not sure where the bottom is. Sometimes you win and sometimes you lose. I will put it in my safe deposit box and wait it out.

[investinrookies]

Nice card for the grade. No such thing as overpaying for a 52T mantle.


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[Aquarian Sports Cards]

What are the odds the market continues into September for the nicest 1.5 you'll ever see?

[Bestdj777]

I made two mistakes when it comes to 52 Topps Mantles. First, when I built up a really nice Mantle collection many years back, poor 52 Topps were in the $2000-3000 range. I really considered liquidating my collection and getting a mini-hoed together of 6-10 of them. That would have been fantastic to look through. Second, I once bought CSG 2 or 3 52 Topps Mantle. I can’t remember the specific grade. The card looked 100% legit, and the price was decent—in line with PSA 1s at the time. I got cold feet and asked the seller to cancel the sale and instead picked up another example in a SGC holder in a lower grade.

Now for a couple of things I don’t regret, buying my 51 Bowman and 52 Topps Mantles when I did and selling my second 52 Topps to buy a house—the price had tripled by then and, although I would have made substantially more if I’d held it, I’ve seen good returns on my home purchase.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

What are the odds the market continues into September for the nicest 1.5 you'll ever see?

As close to a lock as there is in this hobby. This card goes for > $50k. Mark my words.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by Snowman

As close to a lock as there is in this hobby. This card goes for > $50k. Mark my words.

We figured obviously top of the mark for that grade, but I wasn't quite that optimistic. I'm rooting for you to be right!

We literally could've offered a reward at the National for an explanation for the grade and it would've gone unclaimed, and you KNOW how people love to find what you miss on a card. There is a 1" wrinkle (doesn't show on the back at all) down from the center of the top border to about the level of his eyebrows that you can sort of make out in the scan, but since when does that result in a 1.5?

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

We figured obviously top of the mark for that grade, but I wasn't quite that optimistic. I'm rooting for you to be right!

We literally could've offered a reward at the National for an explanation for the grade and it would've gone unclaimed, and you KNOW how people love to find what you miss on a card. There is a 1" wrinkle (doesn't show on the back at all) down from the center of the top border to about the level of his eyebrows that you can sort of make out in the scan, but since when does that result in a 1.5?

Scott if you were the right submitter you would have got a different grade. Most likely the 3 or on a good day 4 range.

[investinrookies]

Originally Posted by Snowman

As close to a lock as there is in this hobby. This card goes for > $50k. Mark my words.

If the card was centered it would go for 50k+ easy. Centered 52T Mantles are extremely hard to find and command huge premiums. That being said, any nice 52T Mantles are hard to find. Nicer copies continue to command more money

[investinrookies]

Prices are getting so high on this card the average collector almost has to sell everything just to get a nice copy. Guess you have to ask yourself if it’s worth it to you and does it have the upside vs holding other lower priced cards


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[Foo3112]

Or sell their entire collection just to get even an authentic one. Me personally, couldn’t sell a bunch of stuff just to acquire even a PSA 1 or even most PSA 2’s. At least not one that looks like it’s been through a washer. It would have to look like one that perhaps has a pinhole or paper loss on the back and then still, lots of people would fight over that copy and it would still sell in the range of a PSA 2 or slightly higher.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by investinrookies

Prices are getting so high on this card the average collector almost has to sell everything just to get a nice copy. Guess you have to ask yourself if it’s worth it to you and does it have the upside vs holding other lower priced cards


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It's just getting started...

[rjackson44]

1953 are getting crazy too ,

[Republicaninmass]

Same pumpers, not many dumpers.


Signed 52 mick in heritage estimate was 200k and only hit 138k. Only so much hype can keep driving them up.

[MattyC]

That Heritage estimate isn’t really a sign of anything other than their not taking too much time/thought to formulate it. As much as a collector I want prices low, it’s worth noting that the signed 51 Mantle blew away the estimate at 200k+. As a collector of signed Mantle cards, and having talked with others doing his signed run, it seems guys were not head over heels for the vertical positioning of the signature on the 138k 52T. I know I only bid it to 105k, because I prefer a horizontal signature if I am paying top dollar. If that same signature was horizontal I would have gone higher. And even higher if the card itself was nicer. So I think Heritage didn’t take the signature orientation/placement and its effect on eye appeal into account when they formulated that estimate.

That said, I thought for a “1” with a vertical signature, it sold in line with past prices; the better looking prior card to sell, with a higher grade signature, went for a little north of 200. And before that a 4 with a great 9 signature sold for 227. So 138k pre tax for a 1/8 didn’t seem like any kind of drop to me, especially with the 51 shattering the estimate. Sadly for someone who is rooting for lower prices, I think the performance of the 51 and the setting a 130-140k bar for even a 1/8 of the 52t, means there is no dip in which to get a good buy on the horizon.

But Ted if you are bearish PLEASE sell me yours bro! It’ll be LOVED