october Madness

[Archive]

Posted By: Bruce Dorskind

We are disappointed that our post on Direct Sales turned into a political commentary

So, we believe it is time for a major baseball card only reality check.

Between October 15 and November 15 there are six auctions


1) Brockelman an Luckey
2) Heritage
3) Huggins and Scott
4) Mastro
5) Sloate Auctions
6) 19th Century


We should choose 25 key cards from each auction and create an index

1) last three prices on VCBC (in some cases there will be none
2) Estimated value
3) Actual prices realized

Our prediction is that of 125 items at least 20 will fail to meet their reserve
(not likely in Mastro because of $100 opening bid on all items) and that more
than 50 of the remaining items will sell for 25%+ less than either the estimated
value or the average value of the past 3 public auctions.

Although the auctions are much like the stock market- i.e. one can really judge the outcome
until the final bell, from what we see bidding in those auctions that are now open is
unenthusiastic at best.

At the end of this study, we are confident that we will able to say the Baseball Card/Memorabilia
Hobby has entered a significant recession.

Whilst we hope that we are incorrect, we strongly believe that that our most dire predictions
are optimistic.


Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List