Skyrocketing Card Values Lately - Theories?

[MailboxBaseball]

Hello,

I am noticing some outrageously high card values/sales on eBay lately. This includes auctions as well as Buy It Now's.

It's not only Michael Jordan, but a few other key names in modern basketball as well.

Does anyone have any theories as to what is going on?

All I can come up with is that the government has been giving away lots of money over the last few months, and that people aren't spending money on vacations or at restaurants/malls these days til this all passes. Also, maybe that people are investing in the stock market less since it crashed in March.

The big question though is:

Will buying at these skyhigh prices be a mistake?
Once life returns to normal and people are all back to work, will the values of some Jordan cards and other refractors come back down to Earth?

Any insight or theories is greatly welcomed and appreciated.

Thanks

[marzoumanian]

Ask yourself one key question: Why do I buy cards in the first place?
Don't chase prices. It's a sure way to be disappointed. Buy what you love so that IF card prices in ANY sport collapse next month (don't worry, that won't happen!) you can still enjoy the cards and the memories they bring you. Admittedly I'm old school (in my 60s) but that's my two cents. Peace.

[brewing]

My theory:
Alot of guys 40-55 have been staying home the past few months.
Saving money on dining out, gas, and entertainment.
Not as many opportunities to do their typical hobby and no sports on TV, so they are bored.

Extra money and boredom. Hey, let's get back into the sports card hobby.

[rats60]

It is a combination of the NBA not playing and the international appeal of the sport. Money that would be put into new product and current year rookies is being directed toward known players like Jordan and LeBron. Also the 10 part Bulls documentary caused people to seek out players from those teams. Basketball has become the sport to collect because there are collectors all over the world seeking out their cards. Baseball and Football cards are primarily collected by those in the US and Canada.

[MailboxBaseball]

Yes these are ALL very good points and thanks for the replies.

Do you think once people are less bored and all the sports return, that certain Kobe and Lebron cards will still be so absolutely sky high? Or could we see a decline in these values as we return to normalcy in life globally? Or will they continue to rise until a Kobe rookie refractor is literally more than a t206 honus wagner? Because the Kobe rookie refractors are already doing close to 50k-100k.

[swarmee]

I expect a plummet. There are a lot of sneakerheads (Collectors of basketball shoes) and bitcoin kids and gamblers who are getting in on baseball cards because they're following baseball card savants like Vegas Dave, Gary Vaynerchuck, and other people you've never heard of on Twitter. Most of them are buying up card segments, then telling their followers what is hot, and then seeing their cards skyrocket when those newbies blindly trust what they're being told.

Look at Topps Project 2020 as an example. Cards with print runs of 40K copies started selling for $200 each even though they were printed by Topps days ago. Now they're dropping to $150 > $130 > $100 > $80 > $60 over the course of two weeks. EBay sellers who sold those cards at $140-200 are getting refund requests because these kids didn't think cards could go down!

They're also the reason you can't get any blaster boxes at Wal-Mart and Target; they're buying them up when they hit the shelves (or supposedly extorting the middleman to force them to sell to regional managers instead of ever hitting the store shelves) and then reselling them online for quadruple or more. It's a huge bubble market right now and you can already see the bubble bursting. Now that those kids' PayPal credit cards are due and they're underwater, it's only going to keep sliding.

[MailboxBaseball]

Swarmee,
Thats an interesting take and thanks for providing a specific example and rationale for an upcoming dip in prices potentially.

Thanks for the reply.

Do you think the Lebron insanity taking place in eBay right now is a bubble also?
No joke, some of these cards have seen their values MULTIPLY BY 4 in only 3 months. And the sports not even on right now! Madness.

[carlsonjok]

Originally Posted by swarmee

I expect a plummet. There are a lot of sneakerheads (Collectors of basketball shoes) and bitcoin kids and gamblers who are getting in on baseball cards because they're following baseball card savants like Vegas Dave, Gary Vaynerchuck, and other people you've never heard of on Twitter. Most of them are buying up card segments, then telling their followers what is hot, and then seeing their cards skyrocket when those newbies blindly trust what they're being told.

I think there is a lot of truth to this. I noticed prices creeping up over a year ago. I am primarily a vintage set builder and I mainly get cards through local card shows and from Greg Morris on eBay. My rule of thumb was I'd pay 30-40% of Beckett high book for cards in EX/NM condition. I used to pick up 10 to 15 cards at a crack, from GM, sticking to that rule. Last year, I was lucky if I could get 2 to 3 and often I would strike out completely. All the other factors mentioned above certainly contribute. But, it all seemed to start with Gary V.

One example really sticks out in my mind. I am three cards away from finishing 1970 Topps. One of those cards is #550, Frank Howard. Beckett shows this card has a $8 high book value. In one recent Greg Morris auction, that card went for nearly $49. I will grant it was NM, but it's centering was 60-40 at best. That is just nuts.

I am also 6 cards from finishing 1968 Topps, one of which is the Ryan rookie card. Right now the prices are outrageous. I have a BGS 4 1956 Mantle that I could probably trade straight up for one. But, I'm more content to wait for the bubble to pop.

[Fuddjcal]

Originally Posted by swarmee

I expect a plummet. There are a lot of sneakerheads (Collectors of basketball shoes) and bitcoin kids and gamblers who are getting in on baseball cards because they're following baseball card savants like Vegas Dave, Gary Vaynerchuck, and other people you've never heard of on Twitter. Most of them are buying up card segments, then telling their followers what is hot, and then seeing their cards skyrocket when those newbies blindly trust what they're being told.

Look at Topps Project 2020 as an example. Cards with print runs of 40K copies started selling for $200 each even though they were printed by Topps days ago. Now they're dropping to $150 > $130 > $100 > $80 > $60 over the course of two weeks. EBay sellers who sold those cards at $140-200 are getting refund requests because these kids didn't think cards could go down!

They're also the reason you can't get any blaster boxes at Wal-Mart and Target; they're buying them up when they hit the shelves (or supposedly extorting the middleman to force them to sell to regional managers instead of ever hitting the store shelves) and then reselling them online for quadruple or more. It's a huge bubble market right now and you can already see the bubble bursting. Now that those kids' PayPal credit cards are due and they're underwater, it's only going to keep sliding.

Darn fool kids

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by rats60

It is a combination of the NBA not playing and the international appeal of the sport. Money that would be put into new product and current year rookies is being directed toward known players like Jordan and LeBron. Also the 10 part Bulls documentary caused people to seek out players from those teams. Basketball has become the sport to collect because there are collectors all over the world seeking out their cards. Baseball and Football cards are primarily collected by those in the US and Canada.

Guessing you havent seen prices on new panini boxes and zion, Luca etc. They are also through the roof.

[todeen]

There are plenty of economists that are discussing the white collar layoffs. Will they arrive? In my little corner of the world (WA state) government jobs are about to take a hit. Our county was already in trouble when the quarantine hit (i have nothing good to say about our county commissioners), so we now have a double whammy problem looking at loss of tax revenues.

Boeing has announced layoffs. This will reverberate across the entire state. They order aluminum from Spokane.

I don't follow other state economies closely, but my national union (NAT'L EDU ASSOC) believes 1.8 million education jobs are at risk across the USA. Lots of paras and classified staff will be negatively affected, as well as general staff at public and private colleges and universities. I got a very cryptic email about reduction in hours from my side job on Monday, telling me they will have more information on Thursday. I work at Whitman College library, which is a rather prestigious west coast school. I thank God every day I'm not low man on the totem pole at my public K-12 school in case a riff happens.

Tough times lay ahead for many people. White collar workers will face a reckoning eventually, and the bubble will burst for modern cards. And baseball is doing its part to ruin excitement as well.

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[Leon]

Prices on cards are up for all of the reasons mentioned. The Coronavirus has amplified that with even more people being online everyday. With unemployment being so high there are more people at home (surfing the net).

And where else are you going to put your money right now? Cards almost seem safe compared to the stock market. LOL

[tulsaboy]

I know that it low dollar compared to most of what previous posters have been discussing, but for a percentage gain, you should check out junk era unopened. Boxes like 1987 Topps, which for the longest time has been a $10 box, is selling quickly at $40. 1987 Donruss boxes, which were $25 boxes forever, are briskly selling in the $55-75 range. 1983 Topps, while not the junk range, is still more modern than this particular forum's focus. Boxes of 1983 Topps could easily be had for $250 at the National last summer. Right now, BBCE wrapped boxes are $750-1000. FASC even more. A lot of it is ridiculous, as the supply has not fundamentally changed and the desirability of these boxes has also not fundamentally changed. But I agree with a previous poster that the Corona checks, coupled with boredom, coupled with a lack of other avenues to spend "play money" like sporting events, movies, eating out, etc. has caused a momentary spike in prices. I think they come down in the next 3 months. Not back down to pre-Corona levels, but back down significantly.
kevin

[Exhibitman]

Everything seems to be selling well right now; good time to move all that bulk in the ol' collection.

[Directly]

Appears Mid-grade Ruth and Gehrig Goudey and T206 Cobbs are trending--if your assessment of a possible better grade on the Ruth shown, they got a good deal?

[todeen]

Originally Posted by Leon

And where else are you going to put your money right now? Cards almost seem safe compared to the stock market. LOL

As white collar workers lose their jobs (worst is expected in 2021), they will stop buying cards and do what has always been done before by stressed out individuals during a recession.... They will buy cigarettes and alcohol, and they will gamble. When people are stressed, they look for stress relief.

And retirees better hope the Senate does another stimulus package and give money to states and local entities. A lot of pensions could be stressed and shocked, just like Detroit in the last recession, then they had to file bankruptcy. A pension cut in half doesn't allow a lot of money to buy cards.

Of course the 24 rich individuals driving the boom will still be around to bid on cards.....

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[pawpawdiv9]

I really was 'aimed' at getting this card, even went higher than prices i seen, because it is one of the best looking 2's i seen. But i be baffled, i got outbid on it.
This has to be a new 'record' price for this. Personally i think it will get bumped out of its slab to a 2.5 or 3. Its that nice!!!

Ended last night at Baggers
https://www.baggersauctions.com/Auct...6&lotNumber=32

[pawpawdiv9]

I really was 'aimed' at getting this card, even went higher than prices i seen, because it is one of the best looking 2's i seen. But i be baffled, i got outbid on it. Sat as top bidder for the whole week.
This has to be a new 'record' price for this. Personally i think it will get bumped out of its slab to a 2.5 or 3. Its that nice!!!

Ended last night at Baggers bid 4150 (4772.50 BP)
https://www.baggersauctions.com/Auct...6&lotNumber=32

[IgnatiusJReilly]

I’ve been tracking sgc/PSA Goudey Ruth’s in 2-4 and I think I’ve been priced out of the market. A decent looking #144 sgc 2 went for $1100 more today than it did 2.5 months ago (exact same card) for a 30% bump.


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[conor912]

Originally Posted by IgnatiusJReilly

I’ve been tracking sgc/PSA Goudey Ruth’s in 2-4 and I think I’ve been priced out of the market. A decent looking #144 sgc 2 went for $1100 more today than it did 2.5 months ago (exact same card) for a 30% bump.


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I feel for you. In 2014 I was 4 cards away from finishing my ‘33G set...all 4 Ruths. It was the centennial of his rookie year and several people whose opinion I trust told me that his cards were inflated and to wait a year or two and they would come back down. Man I’m glad I didn’t listen to them. I scraped up every penny I could and bought all 4 that summer....they’ve just about tripled since then and there’s no way I could afford them now. Even the sun shines on a dogs ass every once in a while. But i know the shitty feeling of watching a card you want just sail away into the sunset.

[thatkidfromjerrymaguire]

Well, you all are welcome in advance, because I likely just popped the vintage bubble.

I've never spent more than $600 on a single baseball card before, but I've been slowly saving over the last couple years to buy a mid grade 1952 Bowman Mantle. I finally gathered what I thought was enough money recently, only to see midgrade (PSA and SGC 5's and 6's) 1952 Bowman Mantles are spiking right now.

So I had to decide if I should wait for them to come back down...or just go all in right now in case they keep going up and never come back to pre-quarantine prices.

So I bought an SGC 6 today.

And because of how my life works, I fully expect the market for 1952 Bowman Mantles to drop quickly and precipitously....starting today.

[conor912]

Originally Posted by thatkidfromjerrymaguire

Well, you all are welcome in advance, because I likely just popped the vintage bubble.

I've never spent more than $600 on a single baseball card before, but I've been slowly saving over the last couple years to buy a mid grade 1952 Bowman Mantle. I finally gathered what I thought was enough money recently, only to see midgrade (PSA and SGC 5's and 6's) 1952 Bowman Mantles are spiking right now.

So I had to decide if I should wait for them to come back down...or just go all in right now in case they keep going up and never come back to pre-quarantine prices.

So I bought an SGC 6 today.

And because of how my life works, I fully expect the market for 1952 Bowman Mantles to drop quickly and precipitously....starting today.

Congrats on pulling the trigger! I regret the things i didn’t buy infinitely more than the things i did. The way I see it, only one of 3 things can happen...1) it goes down (but you still have a sweet card 2) it stays the same (all good) or 3) it goes up....icing on the cake. Even the worst of the 3 doesn’t seem so bad for something that brings joy to your life.

[Seven]

I think it also has to deal with so many people coming back to the hobby, because there's not much to do but return to old hobbies, or start new ones. I pulled the Trigger on a 53 Bowman Color Mantle, for a little more than I would normally be comfortable with but, what's the worst that could happen? It goes down? I'm probably not going to sell it regardless.

I think Card's return to somewhat normal levels, once everyone's back to work in a somewhat normal capacity. I think post vaccine, it should be fine. I'll probably hold off on making any more super major purchases but there are always exceptions to the rule, so you never know.

[thatkidfromjerrymaguire]

Originally Posted by conor912

Congrats on pulling the trigger! I regret the things i didn’t buy infinitely more than the things i did. The way I see it, only one of 3 things can happen...1) it goes down (but you still have a sweet card 2) it stays the same (all good) or 3) it goes up....icing on the cake. Even the worst of the 3 doesn’t seem so bad for something that brings joy to your life.

Yes, I agree with your three possibilities which is why I ultimately pulled the trigger. I bought the card to keep and enjoy, not to flip for a profit. So even if it decreases in value, it will still be the cornerstone of my humble collection.

[GasHouseGang]

Originally Posted by thatkidfromjerrymaguire

Well, you all are welcome in advance, because I likely just popped the vintage bubble.

I've never spent more than $600 on a single baseball card before, but I've been slowly saving over the last couple years to buy a mid grade 1952 Bowman Mantle. I finally gathered what I thought was enough money recently, only to see midgrade (PSA and SGC 5's and 6's) 1952 Bowman Mantles are spiking right now.

So I had to decide if I should wait for them to come back down...or just go all in right now in case they keep going up and never come back to pre-quarantine prices.

So I bought an SGC 6 today.

And because of how my life works, I fully expect the market for 1952 Bowman Mantles to drop quickly and precipitously....starting today.

Thanks a lot John. Now my 1952 Mantle is sure to drop in value!

[thatkidfromjerrymaguire]

Originally Posted by GasHouseGang

Thanks a lot John. Now my 1952 Mantle is sure to drop in value!

Haha, yes. I truly apologize.