AL Wild Card Scenarios

[rats60]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Yet another reason why people often say "baseball is all luck". The Dodgers were the best team in baseball this season (and by a sizeable margin as well). They have an SRS of 1.6 vs the Giants 1.2, which is a better predictor of playoff success than is total wins or even Pythagorean wins (and they had 109 PWs vs the Giants 101). Yet, here they are in a one-game playoff just for a shot at a series against the inferior Giants (albeit with a slightly better record).

Here's an interesting and relevant excerpt from The Drunkard's Walk that I often reference when discussing statistical probabilities in baseball with my friends...

You say it, but that doesn't make it true. Baseball is a situational game. Games are decided by performance in clutch situations such as getting a two out hit with runners in scoring position or on the other side getting the third out to get out of the jam. Pythagorean wins are just a bunch of nonsense. All they do is tell how much a team under performed or exceeded expectations in crucial situations. They aren't real.

That is a really ironic quote. The Giants and Dodgers played a 162 game schedule and the Giants won more games. However, you have decided because of " theoretical" wins, those 162 games should be ignored and the Dodgers are the best team. Why even have a playoffs? Just give them the title because you said so.

[mrreality68]

Go Yankees Go

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by rats60

You say it, but that doesn't make it true. Baseball is a situational game. Games are decided by performance in clutch situations such as getting a two out hit with runners in scoring position or on the other side getting the third out to get out of the jam. Pythagorean wins are just a bunch of nonsense. All they do is tell how much a team under performed or exceeded expectations in crucial situations. They aren't real.

That is a really ironic quote. The Giants and Dodgers played a 162 game schedule and the Giants won more games. However, you have decided because of " theoretical" wins, those 162 games should be ignored and the Dodgers are the best team. Why even have a playoffs? Just give them the title because you said so.

The great thing about statistics is that we don't have to guess at who is right or wrong. We can test out different theories and see which ones are more predictive of future success. Pythagorean wins are not "a bunch of nonsense". They are more predictive of future success than regular wins are. It may be a statistic you don't care about, but that doesn't mean it's not useful or informative. I've been building predictive baseball models for years using advanced statistical techniques (I also work in this field). I've beaten the Vegas spread 8 of the last 9 seasons. I am well tuned into what makes one team better than another, and spoiler alert, it's not their record of wins & losses. I assure you, on a neutral field, the Dodgers in a 7-game series would be favored against any team in baseball this season at every sportsbook across the country. But that doesn't mean they will win the World Series. There is a tremendous amount of variance and short-term luck in baseball. Far more than in any other major sport. The worst team in the league can beat the best team on any given night. This almost never happens in football or basketball. It's just the nature of the game. The difference between a game-winning double in baseball can be a bad hop where the ball catches a seam on the bounce, or whether or not the seam on the ball makes contact with the bat, causing the ball to shoot off at a different angle, or the launch angle can be changed by just 1 millimeter difference in the swing plane. A player has little to no control over many of the most important variables that ultimately determine the outcome of a game. Anyhow, I could go off on this topic for hours, but nobody wants to read that. I'm either preaching to the choir or arguing with someone who has no idea what they're talking about. I'm not breaking new ground here though. This stuff isn't exactly a secret.

[TUM301]

I like to sit in the bleachers at Fenway, get a sunburn eat pretzels and watch the game.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by TUM301

I like to sit in the bleachers at Fenway, get a sunburn eat pretzels and watch the game.

Good Problem to Have and Great Stadium to enjoy it in

Sadly my team will be sunning on the beaches in Florida

[Snapolit1]

All the post mortems on the Yankees will talk about a lost season and what a mess it was. Yep, team 21 games over .500 and it was a complete
and utter train wreck and heads should roll. The depths of Yankee fan entitlement never ceases to amaze me all these years later.

Some guy is putting his 27 rings leather jacket back in the closet for a long winter. Outraged that somehow one of more teams performed better than the Yankees. Not how it was pre-ordained.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

All the post mortems on the Yankees will talk about a lost season and what a mess it was. Yep, team 21 games over .500 and it was a complete
and utter train wreck and heads should roll. The depths of Yankee fan entitlement never ceases to amaze me all these years later.

Some guy is putting his 27 rings leather jacket back in the closet for a long winter. Outraged that somehow one of more teams performed better than the Yankees. Not how it was pre-ordained.

Hi

I am not sure which Yankees fans are feeling entitled or which are bitching about the season.
I hope you were not implying I. I was just saying to H Murphy that it was a good problem to have and enjoy it and my team will not be since his team beat mine.

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

Hi

I am not sure which Yankees fans are feeling entitled or which are bitching about the season.
I hope you were not implying I. I was just saying to H Murphy that it was a good problem to have and enjoy it and my team will not be since his team beat mine.

No Jeff. Honestly didn’t see your message.
Just on Twitter this morning reading one hand wringing outraged post after another.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by rats60

You say it, but that doesn't make it true. Baseball is a situational game. Games are decided by performance in clutch situations such as getting a two out hit with runners in scoring position or on the other side getting the third out to get out of the jam. Pythagorean wins are just a bunch of nonsense. All they do is tell how much a team under performed or exceeded expectations in crucial situations. They aren't real.

That is a really ironic quote. The Giants and Dodgers played a 162 game schedule and the Giants won more games. However, you have decided because of " theoretical" wins, those 162 games should be ignored and the Dodgers are the best team. Why even have a playoffs? Just give them the title because you said so.

On paper the Dodgers do look like the superior team, but it's hard to argue with the Giants' success. As I recall the Giants teams that won the WS three times in the 2010s weren't overwhelming on paper either.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Martinez' injury is of concern. With a not so great staff, the best path to victory is to score a shitload of runs lol.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Martinez' injury is of concern. With a not so great staff, the best path to victory is to score a shitload of runs lol.

Doing that against Tampa's pitching will be quite a challenge. But Alex Cora has proven he knows how to find, ahem, ways to win...

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

Doing that against Tampa's pitching will be quite a challenge. But Alex Cora has proven he knows how to find, ahem, ways to win...

Short series, one can always hope.

[Shoeless Moe]

How 'bout Brewers vs. the Astros

Wait.......who's the NL team and who's the AL team?