Omnious sign in market?

[Snapolit1]

Watching a few auctions close this week, I've seen an odd pattern where there is all of a sudden seemingly a wide disparity in where the same item is selling for in different places relatively close in time.

A ticket stub sold for 12K, then two months later sold for 10k, and now just sold for $4

Or a card that recently sold in a SGG 60 for over 20K sold for 12 in a PSA 6.

Or a photo sells for 6K that I was sure was going close to 20K.

Obviously there can be variations in eye appeal, but it seems like maybe the pool of motivated buyers from some nice new toys is perhaps drying up a bit.

Anyone else see anything like this in what they are following? Just wider fluctuations in price than what I've been accustomed to see.

Not sky is falling . . . .

[pawpawdiv9]

Its football season, give it a few months- like during the holidays when people have more free time to shop.
Could be just a system overload with so many auctions at one time.

[raulus]

I think we would all welcome a bit of a return to sanity in the market, no matter how small it might seem.

[Fballguy]

Check your 401K.

[mrreality68]

You could be right Steve.

But I do not think it will be. Potentially a lull do the overload of auctions and the National Show.

But items I bid on and track seem to still be going really strong and the prices fluctuate but not drastically and it seems to seem to be more up than down.

Pictures I am no expert and I cannot explain why 1 type 1 from the same year and basic subject matter goes for such dramatic prices

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Or a card that recently sold in a SGG 60 for over 20K sold for 12 in a PSA 6.

Wow that's a big drop. Which card was it?

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

Wow that's a big drop. Which card was it?

This one caught my eye. Others too.

[Johnny630]

I’m a Buyer of the S&P 500 and the Q’s doubling down in the middle of October. Then Up Up and Away. The vintage card market is a little too high for me. I view it as if you either have it or you don’t. I’m fine and love what I have, I’m good with never buying another card.

Last month a SGC 5 Mantle Sells for $306,000 in REA

Goldin Has a 5 Right Now it’s not as nice as REA’s ending tonight and it’s only at $122k plus the juice. Of course, we will hear $100,000 plus more is reasonable for eye appeal it's gonna get up graded/bumped yada yada yada but when is enough? People have a ton of money so I will contine to be wrong with cards, they're gonna only be going higher in auctions lol.

[Snapolit1]

My financial guy says at least 6-9 months more of volatility and some more pain but clouds clear next summer sometime.

I've long subscribed to the wall street adage "no one knows 'nuthin. And if they do they're not talking.





QUOTE=Johnny630;2262249]I’m a Buyer of the S&P 500 and the Q’s doubling down in the middle of October. Then Up Up and Away. The vintage card market is a little too high for me. I view it as if you either have it or you don’t. I’m fine and love what I have, I’m good with never buying another card.

Last month a SGC 5 Mantle Sells for $306,000 in REA

Goldin Has a 5 Right Now it’s not as nice as REA’s ending tonight and it’s only at $122k plus the juice. Of course, we will hear $100,000 plus more is reasonable for eye appeal it's gonna get up graduate yada yada yada but when is enough? People gave a ton of money so ill on continuing to be wrong with cards only going higher in auctions lol.[/QUOTE]

[robertsmithnocure]

Out of curiosity, what was the ticket and photo that you are referring to?

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by robertsmithnocure

Out of curiosity, what was the ticket and photo that you are referring to?

Ticket below.

The photo was the Ruth Gehrig barnstorming photo in SCP last night.

[Snapolit1]

Maybe just outliers, but those strike me as pretty significant corrections, if that is what they are.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

My financial guy says at least 6-9 months more of volatility and some more pain but clouds clear next summer sometime.

I've long subscribed to the wall street adage "no one knows 'nuthin. And if they do they're not talking.





QUOTE=Johnny630;2262249]I’m a Buyer of the S&P 500 and the Q’s doubling down in the middle of October. Then Up Up and Away. The vintage card market is a little too high for me. I view it as if you either have it or you don’t. I’m fine and love what I have, I’m good with never buying another card.

Last month a SGC 5 Mantle Sells for $306,000 in REA

Goldin Has a 5 Right Now it’s not as nice as REA’s ending tonight and it’s only at $122k plus the juice. Of course, we will hear $100,000 plus more is reasonable for eye appeal it's gonna get up graduate yada yada yada but when is enough? People gave a ton of money so ill on continuing to be wrong with cards only going higher in auctions lol.

[/QUOTE]

Agreed. Most pundits are like broken clocks, inevitably they will be right once in a while, but mostly not.

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

My financial guy says at least 6-9 months more of volatility and some more pain but clouds clear next summer sometime.

I've long subscribed to the wall street adage "no one knows 'nuthin. And if they do they're not talking.

Definitely agree with the latter, as for the former I have serious reservations and think the November election can and will heavily sway the market. Waiting nervously to see if 6-9 is the upswing or the start of much worse.

[Snapolit1]

Just wondering if for your run of the mill nice $15,000 card, whether maybe there are 8 people really actively looking for one as opposed to 18 or 28 a year ago. Not that no one is ponying up, but maybe the number of people in the pool has dropped a good bit. Would make sense to me in light of everything else going on in the economy.

[raulus]

I do think that outliers can be a factor, particularly on the high side.

You get a couple of guys bidding against each other. They both get emotionally invested. They both start clearing a spot on their wall to display it. They both start thinking, “Who does this other guy think he is? I crap bigger than him! I make $X million every year!!! I’m not going to let this blackguard win!!!” Next thing you know, it’s been bid up by 4x the real price.

But maybe I’m just projecting…

[irv]

I mainly follow 52 Topps cards, and not near as much as I use to, but I am not seeing a drop off.
If anything, I am seeing the opposite, at least lately.
Could have something to do with the 9.5 Mantle, but that is just a guess.
https://www.psacard.com/priceguide/b...952-topps/1129

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

This one caught my eye. Others too.

Wow, that's pretty crazy. Not a great endorsement for SCP.

I saw that over a dozen of their items (including some of their bigger items like some of the Bill Russell rings) didn't appear to make the reserve and were therefore not sold.

Of course the one item I really wanted--a picture of Clemente after he hit the game winning home run in Game 7 of the '71 World Series tripled in price in overtime, and I lost it.

[Schlesinj]

I jumped in late to the SCP auction and noticed the photos seemed lower in price. I liked that Barnstorming photo as well but I was too late to notice it. I was not planning buying, but i grabbed two items.

I won a lot which included 27 snap shots from Aaron’s 715th, 3 of which slabbed of the swing (it did not have a bid and I bid with 1 second to go). Also grabbed a photo from Home Run Derby TV show of Mantle. That exact photo sold on RMY earlier this year for $2,200, which I lost then. I won it for just under 1k after BP.

I will admit both kind of a weird niche vs cards that are easier to track consistent prices.

[Lorewalker]

Not sure when the economy gets healthy again but I do know that it will and at some point thereafter it will get weak again because that is what happens. I guess I do not worry or focus on the ups and down. Way out of my control.

The results posted, while a small sample, are consistent with what has been seen in the overall market since April/May. Maybe now it is impacting prices more broadly.

SCP's auction last night looked pretty solid on the dozen or so card offerings I just checked. The fact is that there is a better chance now of something going light than there was 6 months ago. Fewer buyers willing to pay top dollar even for great items will have that impact.

[Exhibitman]

I'm not sure you can make generalizations based on specific results, especially for items like tickets or photos, where the market is thinner. One guy who decides he's out and you can see a 50% drop in prices from auction to auction. As an ephemera collector and boxing type card collector, that is a consistent thing over the years: one or two people drop out and the market falls back significantly.

I've stopped thinking short term, except opportunistically. After nearly 50 years of buying and selling cards my focus is more on either whether I want to have something until I really liquidate, or on where I think the item is likely to be when I liquidate.

[boneheadandrube]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

This one caught my eye. Others too.

Centering!

[Jetsfan]

I see that the SGC 3.5 52T Mantle didn’t sell in SCP last night. Anyone know what the final bid was?

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Just wondering if for your run of the mill nice $15,000 card, whether maybe there are 8 people really actively looking for one as opposed to 18 or 28 a year ago. Not that no one is ponying up, but maybe the number of people in the pool has dropped a good bit. Would make sense to me in light of everything else going on in the economy.

I get this feeling too. FOMO is gone, quick flip is gone, cheap money is gone. I also think the collectibles market is a 6-9 month trailing indicator. You also have these investment groups/consortiums that have pooled money to "invest" in cards, they'll start losing money after the promised returns don't materialize and they'll move on to the next shiny object.

A good real estate analogy would be that the all cash offers 150K above list are no longer happening.

And it can't happen fast enough in my opinion. As a collector I would much rather pay 5k for a card I want instead of 8k. Your Gehrig is a perfect example, I would guess the 1st buyer was an investor and the second a collector. Beautiful card and worth what the 2nd guy got it for, not what the 1st guy got it for.

In the restaurant business we have an old saying, it's always the second guy who makes money after the first guy goes broke spending all the money building it out and the second guy buys the assets for pennies on the dollar.

[jsfriedm]

Originally Posted by Jetsfan

I see that the SGC 3.5 52T Mantle didn’t sell in SCP last night. Anyone know what the final bid was?

51 Bowman Mantle PSA 7 didn't sell either. A lot of the top lots didn't sell. That would seem to be strongest indicator of all.

[Jetsfan]

I agree Jeremy. Just wondering if there was a ridiculous reserve price.

[jsfriedm]

Originally Posted by Jetsfan

I agree Jeremy. Just wondering if there was a ridiculous reserve price.

Last I saw the 51 Bowman, it was in the low 60Ks, with buyer's premium. Centering was not good, but even so, I would expect that to be an 80K card, minimum.

[Rhotchkiss]

I didn’t even know SCP had an auction ending last night.

Looking now at some of the results, the following cards that I would have tracked did very well:

T206 Cobb bat off psa 6 ($37k- record)
1914 CJ Cobb psa 3 ($50k - record)
E92 Dockman Wagner throwing PSA 4 ($9k - record)

So it appears that some cards did great, some flopped, and surely some did as expected. I don’t think any broad conclusions can be drawn

[sreader3]

A major asset bubble is bursting. We saw this in 2007-10.

Good news: If you bought two years or more ago you will be fine.

[Johnny630]

Vintage Centered non-oddball Cobb, Ruth, Jackie, Mantle, and May's higher grades are in no way shape, or form in a bubble. Going Up.

Lower grade and oddballs yup they could be in a bubble.

I’m sorry but I’ll say it again ⬆️

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Vintage Centered non-oddball Cobb, Ruth, Jackie, Mantle, and May's higher grades are in no way shape, or form in a bubble. Going Up.

Lower grade and oddballs yup they could be in a bubble.

If the 53T Mays PSA 8 closing tonight with Memory Lane is representative, then it’s definitely way up. Even if it closed at the current price, it would be nearly 7x higher than the last sale price (admittedly pre-pandemic).

And it could still go a lot higher, particularly because Memory Lane leaves their auctions open practically all night.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by raulus

If the 53T Mays PSA 8 closing tonight with Memory Lane is representative, then it’s definitely way up. Even if it closed at the current price, it would be nearly 7x higher than the last sale price (admittedly pre-pandemic).

And it could still go a lot higher, particularly because Memory Lane leaves their auctions open practically all night.

Never have bid with them but been told by many that their auctions usually go until 9AM the next day. Seems fishy since there are some incredible offerings auction after auction in other venues and those never have gone past 1 or 2AM.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Never have bid with them but been told by many that their auctions usually go until 9AM the next day. Seems fishy since there are some incredible offerings auction after auction in other venues and those never have gone past 1 or 2AM.

I guess time zones could impact your results here, but my recollection from past auctions is that they often stay open until 6am or 7am eastern.

[sreader3]

In the 2000s prices for generic T206 PSA 6 commons rose steadily from $100 to $200. Then prices went crazy around 2006 and doubled to $400 by late 2007. Pop goes the bubble. Prices sank back to about $200 by 2009. But they never went back to $100.

I expect something similar to happen this time, except due to inflation the floor is probably $300.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by sreader3

In the 2000s prices for generic T206 PSA 6 commons rose steadily from $100 to $200. Then prices went crazy around 2006 and doubled to $400 by late 2007. Pop goes the bubble. Prices sank back to about $200 by 2009. But they never went back to $100.

I expect something similar to happen this time, except due to inflation the floor is probably $250-300.

I think all of us still in the acquisition phase would be ticked pink if prices settled back down to about 25-50% higher than pre-pandemic.

[Eric72]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

...it appears that some cards did great, some flopped, and surely some did as expected. I don’t think any broad conclusions can be drawn

Spot on!

[sreader3]

Originally Posted by raulus

I think all of us still in the acquisition phase would be ticked pink if prices settled back down to about 25-50% higher than pre-pandemic.

If that’s your expectation then I think you may be tickled pink.

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by raulus

I guess time zones could impact your results here, but my recollection from past auctions is that they often stay open until 6am or 7am eastern.

Really pretty absurd. I don’t know about any of you, but there is exactly a 0% chance I will increase my bid when I am asleep.

[Eric72]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Really pretty absurd. I don’t know about any of you, but there is exactly a 0% chance I will increase my bid when I am asleep.

I take it they don't close lot-by-lot. So, two bidders battling over one random item keeps every lot open, yes?

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by Eric72

I take it they don't close lot-by-lot. So, two bidders battling over one random item keeps every lot open, yes?

That’s my understanding.

[Eric72]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

That’s my understanding.

I guess that helps the AH, financially speaking. However, I wonder how many bidders they lose because not everyone wants to spend countless hours in extended bidding.

Staying up late is one thing. Waking up the following day to find the auction still going is sheer absurdity.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by sreader3

If that’s your expectation then I think you may be tickled pink.

Expectation would be a strong word for it. Hope? Definitely.

My fear is that it will keep raging at or above the current level.

[Shoeless Moe]

I look at it like this:

EVERYTHING went up during the pandemic.

Now pandemic is basically over, "many"(but not all) things are coming back down.

So 100% went up.

Now maybe 80% coming back down, but not all the way down.

I've yet to see anything come back down to pre-pandemic pricing. Things shot so high up plenty of room to fell back some, but not falling all the way down, but significant drops from those big highs at the height of the madness.

So again:
About 80% coming down.
20% still getting strong record prices.

My 2 cents.....which was 6 cents 6-9 months ago.

[Republicaninmass]

Signed cards...never been stronger. See memory lane

[sreader3]

Just to clarify I don’t expect to see pre-pandemic prices again but would not be surprised to see a modest retrenchment from recent highs. I can speak only to T206 where prices appear to have plateaued recently as month over month real estate and stock prices have declined.

[Fred]

At some point in time it just happens...


bubble pop.jpg

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by raulus

I guess time zones could impact your results here, but my recollection from past auctions is that they often stay open until 6am or 7am eastern.

Time zone issue or not, no other house has active bidders keeping the auction open from 10PM EST to 7AM the following day, auction after auction. Most end by 3AM EST which by most hobbyists' standards is absurd enough.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Time zone issue or not, no other house has active bidders keeping the auction open from 10PM EST to 7AM the following day, auction after auction. Most end by 3AM EST which by most hobbyists' standards is absurd enough.

Seems like most AHs have moved to item by item closing to avoid that nonsense altogether.

[Johnny630]

What Happened to $306,000 last month in REA on an SGC 5 Now a 5 Sells for $146,000 Tonight? Was the other card in REA with 150,000 plus more cause had a little nicer corners and centering maybe but to me, it’s a bridge too far. I think last month was an outlier. There is still hope for us mere mortals who do not own a 311 52 Mickey.

[ullmandds]

I see an e126 ruth in mem lane in psa 4 almost 80K...some cards are rocketing to the moon...still.