T206 Honus Wagner SGC 3 What is the Over/Under

[DCDSports]

Oh man, wish we still had the PSA 4! I bet that would fetch a pretty penny today.

[conor912]

I'm going to guess in the $6-7M range, but honestly wouldn't be surprised if it hit eight figures.

[Frank A]

I'm guessing it will go over 7 mil. there's a lot of money in the hobby right now and someone will dig deep to get it.

[Arazi4442]

I wish I had the bankroll to do this, I get the feeling there’s more than a few people on here who would be ready to place some real $ wagers and possibly put me back in the poorhouse. But here’s the line I would set:

Over $5.75M - +110
Under $5.75M - -140

[BearBailey]

I think it sets a record, 7 million or more, think of what the 52 mantles have been going for and there are thousands of them. There are only 70ish of these and everyone knows this card.

[chriskim]

If someone offer $15Mil to buy the card now, would REA just sell it privately? I am pretty sure it has happened before on other significant consignments in other AHs.

[mrreality68]

Hi All,

Great information and great thoughts and opinions from everyone.

Keep it going.

I think it has strong eye appeal and should challenge the $6 million dollar record of the 1914 Ruth Card.

I also think the T206 Wagner should have the record since as it was mentioned earlier it has been the Face of Baseball Cards for over 100 Years and will Continue to be the Face for a long time to come.

[Celtics18]

10M+

Wagner T206 deserves to be the first eight figure card sale in the history of sports cards. When we get to $5m+ market, the bidders pockets are deep and 1M jumps become commonplace. If there is a bidding war it could go much higher.

[mattsey9]

Does anyone know if REA is planning to display this card in their booth at the National?

[clydepepper]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

I disagree. Displayed art will evoke a reaction, even if you know nothing about the piece. Displayed art also tends to be large and can be seen just in passing. For 90% of the people the card would mean nothing other than the company spending lots of money, on a little piece of cardboard, that could have gone to increase wages or improve conditions.

I agree:

Babes.jpg

I'm willing to post this photo as often as needed for someone not to have to see them 'just in passing' - however, there is a cover charge if you come see them in person...lol



=

[cardsagain74]

I hope the Wagner card outsells the Baltimore News Ruth (which, in addition to being a minor league card, is basically a team schedule made to look like a baseball card and isn't even part of a set).

The Babe should be on the most valuable card in the hobby, but not that way.

Why hasn't the M101 Ruth taken those reigns?

[steve B]

Originally Posted by cardsagain74

I hope the Wagner card outsells the Baltimore News Ruth (which, in addition to being a minor league card, is basically a team schedule made to look like a baseball card and isn't even part of a set).

The Babe should be on the most valuable card in the hobby, but not that way.

Why hasn't the M101 Ruth taken those reigns?

Because it's missing one of the three elements that make something a "top item" in any hobby.
It doesn't have a great story behind it, even one that probably isn't true.

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

Hi All,

Great information and great thoughts and opinions from everyone.

Keep it going.

I think it has strong eye appeal and should challenge the $6 million dollar record of the 1914 Ruth Card.

I also think the T206 Wagner should have the record since as it was mentioned earlier it has been the Face of Baseball Cards for over 100 Years and will Continue to be the Face for a long time to come.

Now I'm wondering what card the Wagner took that title from. I'm guessing there may not have been such a thing as a famous baseball card before 1909, but one of them had to be the most famous. N28 Anson?

[darwinbulldog]

$6,000,206.

[mrreality68]

Hi Everyone

REA is now Open and the T206 Wagner as 10 bids already and $2.3 Million before Buyers Premium.
There is "NO RESERVE" and thus will sell.

Details to follow

[Natswin2019]

It's at 2.5 at the time I write this before the premium so my guess is over the 6 million mark. I'd bet it takes the record

[bnorth]

$7.5M before buyers premium

[ruth-gehrig]

Have at it, auction is open!

[marzoumanian]

Seconds ago I just received an email from REA telling me the auction is now open. This card is already at $2.3 million. Wow. What a start. Peace.

[bigfanNY]

A number of years ago REA sold a Baltimore News Ruth if memory serves for around 50k. And Rob Lifson said in the description that he thought the card had the ability to become one of the most valuable cards in the Hobby. ...He got that one right.

[Johnny630]

12 million

[Oscar_Stanage]

I think this card will go for over $6mm. It is THE card to own in the middle of an unprecedented boom

[ruth-gehrig]

Originally Posted by mattsey9

Does anyone know if REA is planning to display this card in their booth at the National?

According to todays email announcing the early opening of the auction, yes it will be on display along with other auction highlights.

[Johnny630]

REA is now accepting crypto currencies as payment in this auction, look under the description of this card.

A lot of dark monies maybe entering this hobby. Idk 🤷🏼*♂️

[MK]

Originally Posted by whiteymet

Jay:

Halper came onto the scene out of nowhere in the early 70's and was paying three times what things were going for at the time so everyone was selling him stuff.

He lived about 20 minutes from me at the time and asked if he could come over to see my collection. When he did he asked "how much for the Wagner"? I said I'd never sell the Wagner, I'd have to sell the entire collection. He asked how much for the entire collection?

Well, in those days that never happened. I sat down and wrote out long hand everything I had. T200, T201, T205, T206, T207 complete, most Goudy sets including Lajoie, Play Balls, tons of regionals, Topps and Bowman complete except for 52 Hi #'s ( I refused to pay $3 each for them!), Exhibits, Topps test sets, uncut sheets etc. etc. Came up with a price took 15% off as was the custom in those days if you were buying something big/expensive and gave Halper the price.

Without blinking or negotiating he said "fine" and ended up paying me with quite a few postal money orders made out to me from Joe Tinker, Frank Chance. and other old players... you get the idea.

I was 26 years old, getting married, and figured it was time. No one else would have been able to buy the entire collection, so off it went. My only mistake was figuring the "current" value and not the 3X $$ Halper was paying at the time.

Saying all that, the sale allowed me a few years later to start a business that evolved into more businesses and I was able to retire at age 55.

So, I would have had to live in a tent for 45 years in order to cash in now and sell the Wagner for the Millions of dollars you all are throwing around that is making me SICK!!!

Fred

Fred,
I read your story in total amazement. What a collection you had accumulated. How, if you don’t mind me asking, does a 26 year old manage to acquire all those cards? The fact you wouldn’t spend $3 for a ‘52 high number tells me you were thrifty.

[mrreality68]

slow but steady it goes up.

$3.2 million dollars (before buyers premium) a little while ago

Interesting but does this or does this nor effect the rest of the market.

I mean we know the prices have spiked especially on high end items.

What happens to the rest of the market. Will it stay at these new prices or down tick.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

slow but steady it goes up.

$3.2 million dollars (before buyers premium) a little while ago

Interesting but does this or does this nor effect the rest of the market.

I mean we know the prices have spiked especially on high end items.

What happens to the rest of the market. Will it stay at these new prices or down tick.

Hard to tell......a lot of dark money through crypto coming in on these big items.

I think long run this card will appreciate.

The rest of Vintage Ruth, Cobb, Mantle, and Jackie Centered In 6’s and above are Rock Stars.

I think lower grade will come down a lot take for examples 33 Ruth’s grades 1-5’s were nuts from Jan-April in those grades they have come back considerably.

[Peter_Spaeth]

I don't think the price of an ultra elite card like this affects the overall market one way or the other.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I don't think the price of an ultra elite card like this affects the overall market one way or the other.

I think there is some effect. I think Honus Wagner cards in general have gone up bc of the popularity of this specific Wagner, especially ones with this pose- like tip top, e90-2, w600, e103, etc. I also think that t206 in general gets a bit of a bump. The card is a t206 Honus Wagner card - that rising tide should/could/is lift all Wagner items and t206 in general. As far as the market on-whole, anytime an elite card sells and gets press, it draws attention to cards, which ultimately impacts the entire hobby in general. I don’t know that it directly makes a 1983 Tony Gwynn more valuable, but it may cause a 40 something to pull out that shoebox and get back into collecting, etc….

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I think there is some effect. I think Honus Wagner cards in general have gone up bc of the popularity of this specific Wagner, especially ones with this pose- like tip top, e90-2, w600, e103, etc. I also think that t206 in general gets a bit of a bump. The card is a t206 Honus Wagner card - that rising tide should/could/is lift all Wagner items and t206 in general. As far as the market on-whole, anytime an elite card sells and gets press, it draws attention to cards, which ultimately impacts the entire hobby in general. I don’t know that it directly makes a 1983 Tony Gwynn more valuable, but it may cause a 40 something to pull out that shoebox and get back into collecting, etc….

Who knows of course, but my belief is that only a very tiny fraction of collectors are in a position to compete for this card, that it will sell for what it sells for reasons having little or nothing to do with the overall market, and that the rest of us aren't going to be influenced one way or the other by what it sells for. I don't buy the rising tide theory. Did the off the charts sale of the recent Jordan 10 affect anything? I doubt it. And this card of course is far far rarer. Just a sui generis sale to me.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Who knows of course, but my belief is that only a very tiny fraction of collectors are in a position to compete for this card, that it will sell for what it sells for reasons having little or nothing to do with the overall market, and that the rest of us aren't going to be influenced one way or the other by what it sells for. I don't buy the rising tide theory. Did the off the charts sale of the recent Jordan 10 affect anything? I doubt it. And this card of course is far far rarer. Just a sui generis sale to me.

I don't think the final selling price will influence the average collector's spending habits. Will it move the needle on some Wagner issues...possible but I did not really see much ripple effect on the previous Wagner sales that took place earlier this year. I do think it gives elite collectors more confidence in the market but not sure the impact is the same on the rest.

[brunswickreeves]

$11.5 MM is my guess.

Given it's phenomenal (for age) and unaltered condition, this is like/better than the 3 PSA 10 52T Mantle. Since the PSA 9 doubled to $5MM+ in the last sale, and PSA 10s would sell for $20 MM+, which could scale to be the first $100 MM card, I think a high net worth pro athlete, actor, or domestic/international investor would easily be willing/able to double the recent PSA 9 52T Mantle price, and foresee this Wagner racing the 52T Mantle to be the 1st $20 MM+ card.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

I don't think the final selling price will influence the average collector's spending habits. Will it move the needle on some Wagner issues...possible but I did not really see much ripple effect on the previous Wagner sales that took place earlier this year. I do think it gives elite collectors more confidence in the market but not sure the impact is the same on the rest.

Hi

I think all the big time purchases do have a trickle down effect. What happens is these big purchases

1. Creates excitement and buzz and creates News and publicity about the card collecting industry
2. Demand for cards increases at all price levels
3. As Supply declines because of both new collectors making purchases as well as when the high end supplies dry up the next level of cards becomes the supply that is available for purchase so people scramble for those thus increasing the value
4. More people are purchasing cards as long term investments so also taking cards off the market (just as collectors who had cards for a while are selling to make a profit) now these cards are bought and removed from the market place with new collectors/investors

Every Market Spike in Collections we have seen over the years had a market correction to a small degree but always higher then the start of the spike and then with time restarted to go up again.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

Hi

I think all the big time purchases do have a trickle down effect. What happens is these big purchases

1. Creates excitement and buzz and creates News and publicity about the card collecting industry
2. Demand for cards increases at all price levels
3. As Supply declines because of both new collectors making purchases as well as when the high end supplies dry up the next level of cards becomes the supply that is available for purchase so people scramble for those thus increasing the value
4. More people are purchasing cards as long term investments so also taking cards off the market (just as collectors who had cards for a while are selling to make a profit) now these cards are bought and removed from the market place with new collectors/investors

Every Market Spike in Collections we have seen over the years had a market correction to a small degree but always higher then the start of the spike and then with time restarted to go up again.

It sounds good but I disagree, I think these elite cards are their own thing and I've seen no evidence of any significant trickle down when big prices are reported for rare/elite cards.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

Hi

I think all the big time purchases do have a trickle down effect. What happens is these big purchases

1. Creates excitement and buzz and creates News and publicity about the card collecting industry
2. Demand for cards increases at all price levels
3. As Supply declines because of both new collectors making purchases as well as when the high end supplies dry up the next level of cards becomes the supply that is available for purchase so people scramble for those thus increasing the value
4. More people are purchasing cards as long term investments so also taking cards off the market (just as collectors who had cards for a while are selling to make a profit) now these cards are bought and removed from the market place with new collectors/investors

Every Market Spike in Collections we have seen over the years had a market correction to a small degree but always higher then the start of the spike and then with time restarted to go up again.

You are certainly entitled to your opinion and reasoning but, personally, I have not seen 2-4 on your list when a card like this Wagner is sold. Memory Lane just sold several elite cards that made headlines everywhere. I saw no jump in prices, etc as you have described. The excitement, imo, is limited to the excitement of collectors who can buy dozens of 50K plus cards or even as many 1 million dollar cards as they want. Prices and demand on those cards rise but not the rest of the market.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

You are certainly entitled to your opinion and reasoning but, personally, I have not seen 2-4 on your list when a card like this Wagner is sold. Memory Lane just sold several elite cards that made headlines everywhere. I saw no jump in prices, etc as you have described. The excitement, imo, is limited to the excitement of collectors who can buy dozens of 50K plus cards or even as many 1 million dollar cards as they want. Prices and demand on those cards rise but not the rest of the market.

Perhaps you are right and I am not disputing that. However, every Ruth Card (even not his rarest or most famous) all seem to have jump in price during this spike in sales.
All the Joe Jacksons cards have also jumped dramatically.
Regardless of the grade of Ruth or Jackson and regardless of the Card they all are going for alot more then normal.

[BobbyStrawberry]

My money's on the over at $6 million.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

Perhaps you are right and I am not disputing that. However, every Ruth Card (even not his rarest or most famous) all seem to have jump in price during this spike in sales.
All the Joe Jacksons cards have also jumped dramatically.
Regardless of the grade of Ruth or Jackson and regardless of the Card they all are going for alot more then normal.

Ruth cards have been very hot for over a year now...over and above their usual popularity. Honestly have not followed Jackson cards that closely. I was simply disputing that the market overall gets excited and prices rise over specific sales of elite cards. I think from the middle of last year until March sales of elite cards might have helped the market but the market was already flying. Since March prices overall have dropped on a huge portion of the market and elite sales have not impacted those drops from my pov.

Most people cannot afford to spend 100K on a card let alone spend 10K on a card more than once or twice . If those $100K+ cards are climbing so be it but it is not trickling down from what I am seeing. Not in the least.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Ruth cards have been very hot for over a year now...over and above their usual popularity. Honestly have not followed Jackson cards that closely. I was simply disputing that the market overall gets excited and prices rise over specific sales of elite cards. I think from the middle of last year until March sales of elite cards might have helped the market but the market was already flying. Since March prices overall have dropped on a huge portion of the market and elite sales have not impacted those drops from my pov.

Most people cannot afford to spend 100K on a card let alone spend 10K on a card more than once or twice . If those $100K+ cards are climbing so be it but it is not trickling down from what I am seeing. Not in the least.

I think the most one could say is that sometimes there is some very temporary FOMO from seeing big sales, never across the board though or in most sectors of what people buy. And if Ruth prices are up, I think that's explained by a genuine increase in demand, not by seeing a spike in one or two sales and a trickle down effect. I would argue it's the other way around, that the high sales are the result of increased demand in the first place.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I think the most one could say is that sometimes there is some very temporary FOMO from seeing big sales, never across the board though or in most sectors of what people buy. And if Ruth prices are up, I think that's explained by a genuine increase in demand, not by seeing a spike in one or two sales and a trickle down effect. I would argue it's the other way around, that the high sales are the result of increased demand in the first place.

Hi Peter and Chase

Thanks for your thoughts on this. Some interesting and diverse ways of looking at the market.
This is one of the great things about these threads and these Forums

either way I enjoy my Collection and seeing others collections and the chase in trying to get the cards we all want

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

Hi Peter and Chase

Thanks for your thoughts on this. Some interesting and diverse ways of looking at the market.
This is one of the great things about these threads and these Forums

either way I enjoy my Collection and seeing others collections and the chase in trying to get the cards we all want

Just looked at your collection...very nice. Much to envy there.

[cardsagain74]

What stands out to me is that it looks like this Wagner is crease (and maybe even wrinkle) free, and wondering just how much people will pay up for such a rare chance to get their hands on a clean one. Especially at this point in the marketplace.

I'll guess 7.5 million, but wouldn't be surprised if it pushes 10

[rats60]

Originally Posted by cardsagain74

What stands out to me is that it looks like this Wagner is crease (and maybe even wrinkle) free, and wondering just how much people will pay up for such a rare chance to get their hands on a clean one. Especially at this point in the marketplace.

I'll guess 7.5 million, but wouldn't be surprised if it pushes 10

The card definitely has creasing to the right of Wagner's face. I agree with your pricing. I think it will break 7 million and I wouldn't be surprised if it breaks 10. This is the best card to hit the market since the 5MC Wagner. That card might break 20 million today.

[cardsagain74]

Originally Posted by rats60

The card definitely has creasing to the right of Wagner's face. I agree with your pricing. I think it will break 7 million and I wouldn't be surprised if it breaks 10. This is the best card to hit the market since the 5MC Wagner. That card might break 20 million today.

I couldn't tell if it was just scratches to the right of his face (plus there's a fairly bad edge spot over in that area too). One the back it does look wrinkled in that area, but the card stock on the back of those comes off so wrinkly all over that I can't tell about that either.

The t206 experts here would have a much better idea.

Regardless, it's close enough to clean that yep, the sky might still be the limit

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Just looked at your collection...very nice. Much to envy there.

Thanks and appreciated.

Trying to grow it strategically

Its a Labor of Love

A very slow process

[mrreality68]

WOW

For a Rare card there are alot of T206 Wagners coming up for auction

I just received an email from SCP Auctions that their next auction will include a T206 Wagner PSA Authentic

More To come

[Touch'EmAll]

What I am noticing drying up are the nice cards that people with ordinary incomes can afford - the $1.k benchmark investment up to $10.k Nice mid grade+ T206 HOFers are getting more scarce all the time. And the near-perfect centered cards (high end for the grade) of post-war HOFers are definitely drying up.

Seems like there are always big dollar cards available - Heritage, REA, Memory Lane, like wow ! They always seem to have a surprisingly impressive inventory of $10.k+ type cards.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

WOW

For a Rare card there are alot of T206 Wagners coming up for auction

I just received an email from SCP Auctions that their next auction will include a T206 Wagner PSA Authentic

More To come

The card has gone up 400% in the last year. People who are into the card at a much lower price are taking profits instead of having their insuance bill go up 400%.

[ZenPop]

lol... Time to break out a poster I created a few years back...

There wasn't a frenzy around bidding on this for some reason... and it has REALLY sharp corners!

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by ZenPop

lol... Time to break out a poster I created a few years back...

There wasn't a frenzy around bidding on this for some reason... and it has REALLY sharp corners!

Nice, lots of good memories at Slims and Bimbos365, I would have bid on that card.