Players not yet eligible for the HOF

[Peter_Spaeth]

As my collection is geared in part to the HOF, I never tire of the subject. Here is a list, by rookie year, of players not yet eligible but who would seem to have a chance as well as my assessment. I've arbitrarily cut this off in 2014 because anyone after that seems too new. Additions welcome as well as thoughts.

1995 Beltran (downgraded to maybe)
1997 Beltre (lock)
1999 Sabathia (likely)
2000 Cabrera (lock)
2001 Utley (unlikely)
2001 Ichiro (lock)
2001 Pujols (lock)
2002 Greinke (likely)
2002 Votto (likely)
2002 Mauer (likely)
2003 Cano (unlikely)
2004 Molina (likely)
2005 Cruz (unlikely)
2005 Verlander (lock)
2008 Scherzer (lock)
2008 Kershaw (lock)
2010 Posey (likely)
2010 Stanton (too soon to tell)
2011 Altuve (likely)
2011 Freeman (too soon to tell)
2011 Trout (lock)
2011 Goldschmidt (unlikely)
2012 Harper (likely)
2013 Arenado (too soon to tell)
2013 Machado (too soon to tell)
2013 Cole (too soon to tell)
2014 Betts (too soon to tell)
2014 DeGrom (too soon to tell)

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

As my collection is geared in part to the HOF, I never tire of the subject. Here is a list, by rookie year, of players not yet eligible but who would seem to have a chance as well as my assessment. I've arbitrarily cut this off in 2014 because anyone after that seems too new. Additions welcome as well as thoughts.

1995 Beltran (likely)

Beltran will be an interesting case study. Will the writers punish him for being a cheat like they have punished Bonds and Clemens? Although he wasn't formally punished, he was the only player named in the report on the Astros cheating scandal. Beltran lied about his involvement and eventually lost the job as Mets manager because of it.

He's also been rumored to be a steroid user like so many others.

Even ignoring all that, is he really a "likely" HOF candidate? 435 homers and 119 OPS+ with 1 top-5 MVP finish. I would argue that Jim Edmonds, who was a better player than Beltran, should get in before Beltran, but he's not getting in anytime soon.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Tabe

Beltran will be an interesting case study. Will the writers punish him for being a cheat like they have punished Bonds and Clemens? Although he wasn't formally punished, he was the only player named in the report on the Astros cheating scandal. Beltran lied about his involvement and eventually lost the job as Mets manager because of it.

He's also been rumored to be a steroid user like so many others.

Even ignoring all that, is he really a "likely" HOF candidate? 435 homers and 119 OPS+ with 1 top-5 MVP finish. I would argue that Jim Edmonds, who was a better player than Beltran, should get in before Beltran, but he's not getting in anytime soon.

70.1 WAR, 8th ranked CF by JAWS. But with the controversy I am changing him to a maybe.

[mrreality68]

Actually Peter that is a really good and most of your comments next to each are close to how I feel.
Injuries being the obvious concern that could derail some of these like Degrom.

Freddie Freeman is not to soon to tell. I would put him as likely but like all others has to continue to do what he has been doing for a few more years. I think the NL MVP in the Covid Shortened seasoned really help his case.

Cano I would not put on the list at all because he was likely until the PED's and now with that and losing the those games to add to his states I would not think he has any chance at all.

Harper with 2 NL MVP's I would put as a lock so as long as he is not hampered by injuries he is young enough to keep piling on.

Stanton to me is a lock or super close and he has an MVP and 2 silver slugger awards. HE is young enough and under contract long enough that as long as he stays healthy he will hit 500 HR's and put up other big numbers

[oldjudge]

I think Altuve is a coin flip at this point.Yes, he is a career .300+ hitter with an MVP, but he has not played at HOF levels the last few years. He has the potential to play himself out of a spot in Cooperstown. Plus, he is a member of those cheating Astros which will cost him some votes.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

I think Altuve is a coin flip at this point.Yes, he is a career .300+ hitter with an MVP, but he has not played at HOF levels the last few years. He has the potential to play himself out of a spot in Cooperstown. Plus, he is a member of those cheating Astros which will cost him some votes.

He hit 31 HR last year and hit .278, that's pretty damn good for a 2b IMO. His only bad year was the short 2020.

[oldjudge]

Minute Maid park is a band box with a 315 ft left field line and only 360 to left center. Altuve only hit 12 HRs on the road last year. Playing in Houston is like playing in Boston with a much lower fence.

[oldjudge]

Sabathia is pretty much Andy Pettitte, really good pitcher who falls a little short of being a HOFer. This is coming from a Yankee fan.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

I'm leaning towards DeGrom being "unlikely" and that's generous. He's the same age as Kershaw. I know wins aren't everything, or even all that important anymore, but can you imagine a starting pitcher with under 100 wins making the hall??? Unless he figures out a way to stay on the mound, AND the injuries don't rob him of his effectiveness, it's a real possibility.

[G1911]

This is a good list. I have no idea what statistical general standards will be used for the pitchers after ~Verlander/Scherzer/Kershaw. They play so little that a new bar will have to be enacted to allow them in, but where those lines will emerge and be drawn is a mystery.

I'd call Beltran and Altuve maybe's for moral posturing and not performance. HOF Voting has grown increasingly political over time.

Then there's guys like Tulowitzki, Hanley, etc. that might sneak in via a vets committee some day, that don't beat the HOF average but the almost random dice rolls of the VC's might reasonably encompass.

[dmats33312]

Can’t see how Mauer, Beltran, Votto, Posey, Altuve get in but Utley doesn’t. Might be some recency bias there but non of these players were better than Utley’s prime and most have less counting stats. Add in Utley has a championship that some of these players don’t and was the core for that to me he is as likely as them. If we are talking WAR only one of them is greater and one other has a chance to be.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

I think Altuve is a coin flip at this point.Yes, he is a career .300+ hitter with an MVP, but he has not played at HOF levels the last few years. He has the potential to play himself out of a spot in Cooperstown. Plus, he is a member of those cheating Astros which will cost him some votes.

Could one of the reasons he hasn't been playing at a HOF level these past few years be because he couldn't cheat like he was before, during these past few years? If I had a vote, I would most definitely take that into serious consideration. But as Peter pointed out, his one really bad year was the shortened 2020 season. Still seems to be hitting well despite not always knowing what is coming.

[Svabinsky78]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

Harper with 2 NL MVP's I would put as a lock so as long as he is not hampered by injuries he is young enough to keep piling on.

Dale Murphy has 2 MVPs.....along with basically 400 HRs, 2100 hits, almost 1300 RBIs, 7 AS, 5 GGs, 4 SSs.... I think Murphy should be in, personally speaking.

[BioCRN]

2000 Francisco Rodriguez

...if voters get over that "1000 innings" hangup that's keeping down Billy Wagner.

On the manager side of things, Jim Leyland (1986 Traded/1987 base) is probably on the cusp of making it while 1979 Bruce Bochy is probably a sure-thing.

[Steve D]

Originally Posted by BioCRN

On the manager side of things, Jim Leyland (1986 Traded/1987 base) is probably on the cusp of making it while 1979 Bruce Bochy is probably a sure-thing.

A couple of other managers to consider are Dusty Baker and Terry Francona. Baker just got his 2,000th win, and Francona is almost at 1,800; and Francona also has the two WS wins with the Red Sox. Every manager who won more than 2,000 games, is in the HOF, except Bochy and Baker.

Steve

[Peter_Spaeth]

Before game 7 of the 2004 ALCS, one of the Red Sox leaders, forget who now maybe Millar, came to Francona and said we've decided to skip batting practice. Francona barely looked up and said, OK. For that alone, he should be in the Hall.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Steve D

A couple of other managers to consider are Dusty Baker and Terry Francona. Baker just got his 2,000th win, and Francona is almost at 1,800; and Francona also has the two WS wins with the Red Sox. Every manager who won more than 2,000 games, is in the HOF, except Bochy and Baker.

Steve

Isn't Francona also the manager to finally beat the "Curse of the Bambino"? For that alone many people feel he deserves recognition in the HOF. Plus, he's from a truly great baseball family.

[BioCRN]

Originally Posted by Steve D

A couple of other managers to consider are Dusty Baker and Terry Francona. Baker just got his 2,000th win, and Francona is almost at 1,800; and Francona also has the two WS wins with the Red Sox. Every manager who won more than 2,000 games, is in the HOF, except Bochy and Baker.

Steve

I'm holding graded RC's of both expecting their HOF to happen (Personal collection + few to sell). Baker is worth having because of it being a short print and sharing a RC with Don Baylor, too.

The 1971 Baker/Baylor is still in that near all-time high price range, but the 1982 Francona cards are still going for near commons prices.

[Misunderestimated]

I know the Closers are problematic but I would add Craig Kimbrel --- Rookie year 2010. I would put the active career Saves leader in the "likely" category. He should pass Dennis Eckersley, and 400 career Saves, this year as the Dodger's closer.
Also as an Executive the recently retired Theo Epstein is a "lock" for breaking baseball's two greatest curses.

[sreader3]

Adam Wainwright just won his 189th game tonight against 108 losses. Not saying he will make it or is deserving but stranger things have happened.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

As my collection is geared in part to the HOF, I never tire of the subject. Here is a list, by rookie year, of players not yet eligible but who would seem to have a chance as well as my assessment. I've arbitrarily cut this off in 2014 because anyone after that seems too new. Additions welcome as well as thoughts.

1995 Beltran (downgraded to maybe)
1997 Beltre (lock)
1999 Sabathia (likely)
2000 Cabrera (lock)
2001 Utley (unlikely)
2001 Ichiro (lock)
2001 Pujols (lock)
2002 Greinke (likely)
2002 Votto (likely)
2002 Mauer (likely)
2003 Cano (unlikely)
2004 Molina (likely)
2005 Cruz (unlikely)
2005 Verlander (lock)
2008 Scherzer (lock)
2008 Kershaw (lock)
2010 Posey (likely)
2010 Stanton (too soon to tell)
2011 Altuve (likely)
2011 Freeman (too soon to tell)
2011 Trout (lock)
2011 Goldschmidt (unlikely)
2012 Harper (likely)
2013 Arenado (too soon to tell)
2013 Machado (too soon to tell)
2013 Cole (too soon to tell)
2014 Betts (too soon to tell)
2014 DeGrom (too soon to tell)

Bringing this back up to reflect another year plus of data, with my own changes.

1995 Beltran (downgraded to maybe)
1997 Beltre (lock)
1999 Sabathia (likely)
2000 Cabrera (lock)
2001 Utley (unlikely)
2001 Ichiro (lock)
2001 Pujols (lock)
2002 Greinke (likely)
2002 Votto (likely)
2002 Mauer (likely)
2003 Cano (unlikely)
2004 Molina (likely)
2005 Cruz (unlikely)
2005 Verlander (lock)
2008 Scherzer (lock)
2008 Kershaw (lock)
2010 Posey (likely)
2010 Stanton (too soon to tell) DOWNGRADED TO UNLIKELY
2011 Altuve (likely)
2011 Freeman (too soon to tell) UPGRADED TO LIKELY
2011 Trout (lock)
2011 Goldschmidt (unlikely) UPGRADED TO LIKELY
2012 Harper (likely)
2013 Arenado (too soon to tell) UPGRADED TO LIKELY
2013 Machado (too soon to tell)
2013 Cole (too soon to tell) UPGRADED TO LIKELY
2014 Betts (too soon to tell) UPGRADED TO LIKELY
2014 DeGrom (too soon to tell)[/QUOTE] DOWNGRADED TO UNLIKELY


And adding six more; I think it's too early to talk about anyone after 2015 at this point.
2010 Kenley Jansen (unlikely)
2011 Craig Kimbrel (unlikely)
2014 J Ramirez (too soon to tell)
2014 Bogaerts (unlikely)
2015 Lindor (too soon to tell)
2015 Correa (too soon to tell)

[cgjackson222]

What do you think about Jose Ramirez? He has been fairly consistent and has four top 5 MVP finishes.

Other infielders to potentially consider if they can stay healthy and productive: Xander Bogaerts, Alex Bregman, Corey Seager, Trea Turner.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

What do you think about Jose Ramirez? He has been fairly consistent and has four top 5 MVP finishes.

Other infielders to potentially consider if they can stay healthy and productive: Xander Bogaerts, Alex Bregman, Corey Seager, Trea Turner.

I will add Jose and Xander to the list, the others are post 2015, no?

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I will add Jose and Xander to the list, the others are post 2015, no?

Seager and Turner started in 2015 I believe, but maybe don't have as strong of a case. Although Seager's hitting this year has been very impressive

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

Seager and Turner started in 2015 I believe, but maybe don't have as strong of a case. Although Seager's hitting this year has been very impressive

Their RCs are 2016 I just confirmed. We will revisit them in a year.

[michael3322]

Great list Peter.

Let's not forget though, if Harold Baines can get in, frankly all of these guys should too and more!

If Harold Baines is In, I Retire From Caring About the Baseball Hall of Fame

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

As my collection is geared in part to the HOF, I never tire of the subject. Here is a list, by rookie year, of players not yet eligible but who would seem to have a chance as well as my assessment. I've arbitrarily cut this off in 2014 because anyone after that seems too new. Additions welcome as well as thoughts.

1995 Beltran (downgraded to maybe)
1997 Beltre (lock)
1999 Sabathia (likely)
2000 Cabrera (lock)
2001 Utley (unlikely)
2001 Ichiro (lock)
2001 Pujols (lock)
2002 Greinke (likely)
2002 Votto (likely)
2002 Mauer (likely)
2003 Cano (unlikely)
2004 Molina (likely)
2005 Cruz (unlikely)
2005 Verlander (lock)
2008 Scherzer (lock)
2008 Kershaw (lock)
2010 Posey (likely)
2010 Stanton (too soon to tell)
2011 Altuve (likely)
2011 Freeman (too soon to tell)
2011 Trout (lock)
2011 Goldschmidt (unlikely)
2012 Harper (likely)
2013 Arenado (too soon to tell)
2013 Machado (too soon to tell)
2013 Cole (too soon to tell)
2014 Betts (too soon to tell)
2014 DeGrom (too soon to tell)

[packs]

What about Kenley Jansen? He’s only 50 or so saves away from Lee Smith and still 35 years old. He could conceivably get to 500 saves. He’s got 420 now.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by packs

What about Kenley Jansen? He’s only 50 or so saves away from Lee Smith and still 35 years old. He could conceivably get to 500 saves. He’s got 420 now.

This is a really good one. My initial thought was "lol no", but looking deeper it's possible. I wouldn't call him likely but he may hit some big milestones and his 158 ERA+ is in level with HOF relief work. Hurt by a lack of big seasons and WAR.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by G1911

This is a really good one. My initial thought was "lol no", but looking deeper it's possible. I wouldn't call him likely but he may hit some big milestones and his 158 ERA+ is in level with HOF relief work. Hurt by a lack of big seasons and WAR.

From what I have seen, WAR doesn't seem to be a great stat for relievers because of the minimal number of innings they generally pitch.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by jayshum

From what I have seen, WAR doesn't seem to be a great stat for relievers because of the minimal number of innings they generally pitch.

I’m not a fan of it either, but the voter base is these days.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

What about Kenley Jansen? He’s only 50 or so saves away from Lee Smith and still 35 years old. He could conceivably get to 500 saves. He’s got 420 now.

I will add him but rate him unlikely at this point.

[Peter_Spaeth]

On the subject of relievers, what about Kimbrel?

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

On the subject of relievers, what about Kimbrel?

About the same boat as Jansen if you compare right now; though he doesn't seem to be aging as well and I would thus rank as less likely. Definitely should be on the list as an actual possibility.