NonSports Forum

Net54baseball.com
Welcome to Net54baseball.com. These forums are devoted to both Pre- and Post- war baseball cards and vintage memorabilia, as well as other sports. There is a separate section for Buying, Selling and Trading - the B/S/T area!! If you write anything concerning a person or company your full name needs to be in your post or obtainable from it. . Contact the moderator at leon@net54baseball.com should you have any questions or concerns. Enjoy!
Net54baseball.com
Net54baseball.com
ebay GSB
T206s on eBay
Babe Ruth Cards on eBay
t206 Ty Cobb on eBay
Ty Cobb Cards on eBay
Lou Gehrig Cards on eBay
Baseball T201-T217 on eBay
Baseball E90-E107 on eBay
T205 Cards on eBay
Baseball Postcards on eBay
Goudey Cards on eBay
Baseball Memorabilia on eBay
Baseball Exhibit Cards on eBay
Baseball Strip Cards on eBay
Baseball Baking Cards on eBay
Sporting News Cards on eBay
Play Ball Cards on eBay
Joe DiMaggio Cards on eBay
Mickey Mantle Cards on eBay
Bowman 1951-1955 on eBay
Football Cards on eBay

Go Back   Net54baseball.com Forums > Net54baseball Main Forum - WWII & Older Baseball Cards > Net54baseball Vintage (WWII & Older) Baseball Cards & New Member Introductions

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 11-02-2022, 11:06 AM
parkplace33 parkplace33 is offline
Drew W@i$e
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Posts: 708
Default CAN WE SOLVE THIS HOBBY (SPORTS CARD) CRISIS? Video and Discussion

I watched an excellent podcast last night about the state of the hobby (warning, it is 31 minutes long)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2cevkO8bZVM

While the focus of this video is modern, I do think they are some takeaways for vintage as well. I found the video and the comments section interesting.

My take on it is that it will be interesting to see how the hobby strives post the last 3 years. An issue have seen recently is a "disinterested" collector. Some friends who have been in the hobby a while and some who have recently joined are taking a pause on buying and collecting. Could be a variety of reasons, but it is not like it was a few years ago. Maybe this will pick back up next year.

Last edited by parkplace33; 11-02-2022 at 11:12 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 11-02-2022, 11:25 AM
BKaufmann14 BKaufmann14 is offline
Brett
Banned
 
Join Date: May 2021
Location: Illinois
Posts: 118
Default Crisis?

I am not really sure what "crisis" you are talking about. It is a hobby after all. Everyone has their own way of collecting and people go in phases with it. I am on the younger side (especially for pre-war), and I have adjusted to prices by offsetting, whether people like it or not. Not sure the term "disinterested" applies to the vast majority. Seems like a small sample size imo.. but maybe this is more for modern.

-Times change, markets change, collecting goals and needs change, i would not label this as some crisis, maybe a bump in the road for some but overall i tend to think the hobby is still lightyears ahead of where it was 3-5 years ago.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 11-02-2022, 11:39 AM
ullmandds's Avatar
ullmandds ullmandds is online now
pete ullman
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: saint paul, mn
Posts: 10,989
Default

Yes how about looking at the hobby before the pandemic set in. A time when junk wax was still junk wax. Look ahead to a few years when what is currently being produced will be the new junk wax!!
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 11-02-2022, 11:39 AM
raulus raulus is offline
Nicol0 Pin.oli
 
Join Date: May 2022
Posts: 948
Default

For those of us too lazy or too busy to spend 30+ mins on the video, could you boil down the gist for us?

Is it primarily that prices are crazy high?

Or is it that the modern market rose so much, and then has fallen so much?

Or something else entirely?

I agree that crisis seems like a pretty strong word to use, particularly in light of the stakes being that this is a hobby for a small section of the population, with hopefully no one spending more than they can afford on their hobby.
__________________
Trying to wrap up my master mays set, with just a few left:

M118 (PSA calls it 1963 Baseball Magazine)
1968 American Oil left side
1971 Bazooka numbered
1971 Bazooka numbered complete panel
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 11-02-2022, 11:41 AM
Leon's Avatar
Leon Leon is offline
Leon
peasant/forum owner
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: near Dallas
Posts: 32,954
Default

The only crisis is me not being able to afford any great cards anymore.
.
__________________
Leon Luckey
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 11-02-2022, 11:42 AM
Johnny630 Johnny630 is online now
Johnny MaZilli
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 3,893
Default

Modern and Ultra Modern are in trouble, big trouble. Quality blue chip kind of like that post the other day vintage zero signs of trouble only clear skies ahead... up up and away territory.

Last edited by Johnny630; 11-02-2022 at 01:00 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 11-02-2022, 11:47 AM
BioCRN BioCRN is offline
member
 
Join Date: Nov 2021
Posts: 89
Default

While the "hobby" and the "market" are closely interconnected, those that care more about the market have seen the peak and are looking their exit (or repositioning, such as high-end desired vintage).

I've sold a lot more than I've bought the past 2 years because of elevated prices. I do plan on buying more when the hobby cools off.

I'm not in the market for high-end desired vintage, and that may never cool off. I don't know, it's beyond my scope. I'm in the $100s/1000s camp, not the $10s-100s thousands camp.

That new stuff seems to be in trouble...and there's a lot "market" people into the new stuff.

I don't know how long the "affordable" $80-$120 hobby box with a "relic or auto hit" can last. Return on investment vs the desire to gamble is getting sketchy with the odds and throwing a few more border color parallels with stamped numbers are diluting things. The higher priced hobby boxes aren't keeping pace, either.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 11-02-2022, 11:48 AM
ullmandds's Avatar
ullmandds ullmandds is online now
pete ullman
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: saint paul, mn
Posts: 10,989
Default

I Perused the video it is strictly concerning the modern card market which I agree is in trouble. Anyone who got into the stock market, the crypto market, the NFT market, the sports collectibles hobby, when everything was only going up up up and was only concerned about the money likely did not do well.

If anything this post belongs in a different area of the siteÖimho.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 11-02-2022, 11:54 AM
Tomi Tomi is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2019
Posts: 162
Default

The modern market has idiots paying 6 figures for a player in their rookie year. Modern has crashed and vintage and pre war continue to go up. No complaints here. I left modern in the 90's for vintage and it was the best hobby decision. I'm sure as time goes by many of these modern collectors will wake up and move away from modern to vintage and pre war.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 11-02-2022, 12:01 PM
Peter_Spaeth's Avatar
Peter_Spaeth Peter_Spaeth is offline
Peter Spaeth
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 27,742
Default

What crisis? Pushers, flippers, manipulators, influencers, certain AHs were able to artificially inflate the market for a while on modern. Of course it had to come back to earth.
__________________
My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at
https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/

He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt.
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 11-02-2022, 12:27 PM
raulus raulus is offline
Nicol0 Pin.oli
 
Join Date: May 2022
Posts: 948
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth View Post
What crisis? Pushers, flippers, manipulators, influencers, certain AHs were able to artificially inflate the market for a while on modern. Of course it had to come back to earth.
Maybe the crisis is for all the vault lenders now that their ultra modern collateral is worth a lot less than the loan balance.
__________________
Trying to wrap up my master mays set, with just a few left:

M118 (PSA calls it 1963 Baseball Magazine)
1968 American Oil left side
1971 Bazooka numbered
1971 Bazooka numbered complete panel
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 11-02-2022, 12:30 PM
G1911 G1911 is offline
Gr.eg McCl.@y
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 4,839
Default

Oh no. The speculators who are still buying in and thinking we're still in the pump stage might not make a huge profit now? I guess it depends if one cares about a 'hobby', Fanatics profit margin, or making bucks flipping. As a hobbyist, I don't see an issue.
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 11-02-2022, 12:31 PM
phillyfan24 phillyfan24 is offline
Jamie
Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada.
Posts: 175
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Leon View Post
The only crisis is me not being able to afford any great cards anymore.
.
Ditto!
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 11-02-2022, 12:54 PM
parkplace33 parkplace33 is offline
Drew W@i$e
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Posts: 708
Default

For those who didn't want to watch the video (I do recommend it), here is the premise/highlights:

What is the pulse of the hobby right now?

Lower excitement of the hobby.

Why are collectors selling? Some need money and some want to get out of the hobby "while they can."

Status of dealers, how are they feeling?

General malaise in the hobby.

Many pressures on the card market right now.

Sellers are outnumbering buyers at higher levels.

For buyers, should they buy now or wait 6 months when things will be cheaper?

Card shops that opened in the last few years are closing up this year.

Are you currently buying?

People bought high and won't sell low.

Will modern collectors move into vintage? It takes work for young collectors to research older players.

Last edited by parkplace33; 11-02-2022 at 01:12 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 11-02-2022, 01:18 PM
Rad_Hazard's Avatar
Rad_Hazard Rad_Hazard is offline
Jeremy
Member
 
Join Date: May 2022
Location: USA
Posts: 527
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by parkplace33 View Post
For those who didn't want to watch the video (I do recommend it), here is the premise/highlights:

What is the pulse of the hobby right now?

Lower excitement of the hobby.

Why are collectors selling? Some need money and some want to get out of the hobby "while they can."

Status of dealers, how are they feeling?

General malaise in the hobby.

Many pressures on the card market right now.

Sellers are outnumbering buyers at higher levels.

For buyers, should they buy now or wait 6 months when things will be cheaper?

Card shops that opened in the last few years are closing up this year.

Are you currently buying?

People bought high and won't sell low.

Will modern collectors move into vintage? It takes work for young collectors to research older players.
Thank you for summarizing!

This quote depresses the hell out of me:

Will modern collectors move into vintage? It takes work for young collectors to research older players.

Researching older players is literally WHY I collect. It's the best part. I've read/listened to countless books, newspaper articles, etc, on 19th century ballplayers to gain that knowledge and it's been an absolute pleasure. If there wasn't this aspect I don't think I would collect, yet it seems like that's the main barrier for the younger crowd (I say this as someone in their late 30's).
__________________
⚾️ Successful transactions with: npa589, OhioCardCollector, BaseballChuck, J56baseball, Ben Yourg, helfrich91, oldjudge, tlwise12, inceptus, gfgcom, rhodeskenm, Moonlight Graham

Last edited by Rad_Hazard; 11-02-2022 at 01:18 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 11-02-2022, 02:48 PM
BioCRN BioCRN is offline
member
 
Join Date: Nov 2021
Posts: 89
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rad_Hazard View Post
Researching older players is literally WHY I collect.
One of my main collections is an All-time Cubs collection (not anywhere near as high quality as other collectors) that required a lot of deep digging to find players I personally gate-kept as worthy.

You're not going to find a lot of Hal Jeffcoat fans in Cubs history, but the guy is notable because he went from 6 years of playing OF (not well) to pitching (also, not well) for the Cubs for a couple years over the course of a winter off. He was traded to CIN where he continued to pitch for a few years. Maybe if he was effective at either he would be more well known, but that's a unique Cubs player.

Deep diving into the history of the Cubs has extremely deepened my knowledge of the team beyond the existing literature.
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 11-02-2022, 03:06 PM
raulus raulus is offline
Nicol0 Pin.oli
 
Join Date: May 2022
Posts: 948
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by parkplace33 View Post
Are you currently buying?

People bought high and won't sell low.
For the modern collectors who don't want to sell low, as Peter likes to say, no one can stop you from being buried with your cards!

And if that's not your preferred exit, then I suppose we get to the classic question:

Will you remain solvent long enough for your [modern cardboard] bets to pay off?
__________________
Trying to wrap up my master mays set, with just a few left:

M118 (PSA calls it 1963 Baseball Magazine)
1968 American Oil left side
1971 Bazooka numbered
1971 Bazooka numbered complete panel

Last edited by raulus; 11-02-2022 at 03:07 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 11-02-2022, 03:38 PM
mrreality68's Avatar
mrreality68 mrreality68 is offline
Jeffrey Kuhr
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2017
Location: Long Island, NY
Posts: 4,255
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rad_Hazard View Post
Thank you for summarizing!

This quote depresses the hell out of me:

Will modern collectors move into vintage? It takes work for young collectors to research older players.

Researching older players is literally WHY I collect. It's the best part. I've read/listened to countless books, newspaper articles, etc, on 19th century ballplayers to gain that knowledge and it's been an absolute pleasure. If there wasn't this aspect I don't think I would collect, yet it seems like that's the main barrier for the younger crowd (I say this as someone in their late 30's).
agreed interesting watch(dragged at points) and great summarizing.

Seems like Vintage is the safer play
__________________
Thanks all

Jeff Kuhr

https://www.flickr.com/photos/144250058@N05/

Looking for
1920 Heading Home Ruth Cards
Autographed Babe Ruth Baseball Card
1933 Uncle Jacks Candy Babe Ruth Card
1921 Frederick Foto Ruth
1917 Boston Store Babe Ruth
Joe Jackson Cards 1916 Advertising Backs
1910 Old Mills Joe Jackson
1914 Boston Garter Joe Jackson
1915 Cracker Jack Joe Jackson
1911 Pinkerton Joe Jackson
1925 Lou Gehrig Rookie Card
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old 11-02-2022, 03:39 PM
Peter_Spaeth's Avatar
Peter_Spaeth Peter_Spaeth is offline
Peter Spaeth
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 27,742
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by raulus View Post
For the modern collectors who don't want to sell low, as Peter likes to say, no one can stop you from being buried with your cards!

And if that's not your preferred exit, then I suppose we get to the classic question:

Will you remain solvent long enough for your [modern cardboard] bets to pay off?
Maybe a new Gary Vee will arise from the crisis and pump it all back up. Julio and Jasson!!! Or are they already yesterday's news?
__________________
My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at
https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/

He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt.

Last edited by Peter_Spaeth; 11-02-2022 at 03:40 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #20  
Old 11-02-2022, 03:41 PM
Peter_Spaeth's Avatar
Peter_Spaeth Peter_Spaeth is offline
Peter Spaeth
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 27,742
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by mrreality68 View Post
agreed interesting watch(dragged at points) and great summarizing.

Seems like Vintage is the safer play
Ya think?
__________________
My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at
https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/

He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt.
Reply With Quote
  #21  
Old 11-02-2022, 03:51 PM
Rad_Hazard's Avatar
Rad_Hazard Rad_Hazard is offline
Jeremy
Member
 
Join Date: May 2022
Location: USA
Posts: 527
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by BioCRN View Post
One of my main collections is an All-time Cubs collection (not anywhere near as high quality as other collectors) that required a lot of deep digging to find players I personally gate-kept as worthy.

You're not going to find a lot of Hal Jeffcoat fans in Cubs history, but the guy is notable because he went from 6 years of playing OF (not well) to pitching (also, not well) for the Cubs for a couple years over the course of a winter off. He was traded to CIN where he continued to pitch for a few years. Maybe if he was effective at either he would be more well known, but that's a unique Cubs player.

Deep diving into the history of the Cubs has extremely deepened my knowledge of the team beyond the existing literature.
Exactly! That's what makes it fun!

I suppose that is why I enjoy diving into the history (mainly newspaper articles) of 19th century players. I've read the wonderful reports from Ed Williamson while on the 1888 Spalding World Tour, and I've read the well documented eccentricities of Dude Esterbrook, as well as pouring over the existing stats of all 19th century players.

While I write this I find myself comparing the careers of King Kelly and Paul Hines. Both have wonderfully fascinating stories, and while Kelly was definitely the media "star" of his day and had a great bat, Paul Hines was the better overall player (just as good of a bat at times, and a MUCH better fielder). If we were picking in a schoolyard and I had my choice, it would be Hines, 10 times out of 10.
__________________
⚾️ Successful transactions with: npa589, OhioCardCollector, BaseballChuck, J56baseball, Ben Yourg, helfrich91, oldjudge, tlwise12, inceptus, gfgcom, rhodeskenm, Moonlight Graham
Reply With Quote
  #22  
Old 11-02-2022, 04:12 PM
rjackson44's Avatar
rjackson44 rjackson44 is online now
octavio ranzola
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Manhattan nyc,congers ny
Posts: 10,260
Default

There hundreds of these boring videos on you tube yawn
Reply With Quote
  #23  
Old 11-02-2022, 05:11 PM
bmattioli's Avatar
bmattioli bmattioli is offline
Bruce Mattioli
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Hartford CT
Posts: 337
Default

The Covid Era reminds me of late 80's early 90's where the thought of baseball cards were going to make you rich overnight.. Did it?
__________________
***********
USAF Veteran
84-94
***********
Reply With Quote
  #24  
Old 11-02-2022, 05:29 PM
Exhibitman's Avatar
Exhibitman Exhibitman is offline
Ad@m W@r$h@w
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Beautiful Downtown Burbank
Posts: 11,968
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by bmattioli View Post
The Covid Era reminds me of late 80's early 90's where the thought of baseball cards were going to make you rich overnight.. Did it?
The people who got in and got out quickly and flipped their proceeds into marquee vintage cards at the time.

The guys who sold the supplies--Levi Strauss didn't get rich with a tin pan.

And the guys who founded Upper Deck. Dewayne Buice made way more on his Upper Deck stock than he ever did playing for Anaheim.

This is cyclical stuff. The newbs are crapping themselves because they've never been through the cycle before and if they didn't take profits or diversify, their fortunes are sinking faster than a mammoth in the La Brea Tar Pits. At a card show this August some shmuck tried to trade me a whole case of super-high-end shiny inserts...of Walker Buehler...d'oh!
__________________
Read my blog; it will make all your dreams come true.

https://adamstevenwarshaw.substack.com/

Or not...
Reply With Quote
  #25  
Old 11-02-2022, 05:30 PM
Exhibitman's Avatar
Exhibitman Exhibitman is offline
Ad@m W@r$h@w
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Beautiful Downtown Burbank
Posts: 11,968
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by rjackson44 View Post
There hundreds of these boring videos on you tube yawn
hee hee, that's good---yawntube.
__________________
Read my blog; it will make all your dreams come true.

https://adamstevenwarshaw.substack.com/

Or not...
Reply With Quote
  #26  
Old 11-02-2022, 06:09 PM
G1911 G1911 is offline
Gr.eg McCl.@y
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 4,839
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by bmattioli View Post
The Covid Era reminds me of late 80's early 90's where the thought of baseball cards were going to make you rich overnight.. Did it?
It did. Not in a fiscal way, but I am rich in 1988 Donruss. 1988 Donruss is more colorful than the Benjamins.

Last edited by G1911; 11-02-2022 at 06:09 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #27  
Old 11-02-2022, 06:42 PM
doug.goodman doug.goodman is offline
Doug Goodman
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: On the road again...
Posts: 3,979
Default

I hope the hobby can't be saved.

Then, when all the dorks are gone, the rest of us can enjoy again.

Doug
Reply With Quote
  #28  
Old 11-02-2022, 06:49 PM
raulus raulus is offline
Nicol0 Pin.oli
 
Join Date: May 2022
Posts: 948
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by doug.goodman View Post
I hope the hobby can't be saved.

Then, when all the dorks are gone, the rest of us can enjoy again.

Doug
^This.

How do we accelerate the process of hastening the exit of the goons?

Iím open to ideas. Thereís no such thing as a bad idea when it comes to the de-goonification of the hobby.
__________________
Trying to wrap up my master mays set, with just a few left:

M118 (PSA calls it 1963 Baseball Magazine)
1968 American Oil left side
1971 Bazooka numbered
1971 Bazooka numbered complete panel
Reply With Quote
  #29  
Old 11-02-2022, 07:11 PM
BobbyStrawberry's Avatar
BobbyStrawberry BobbyStrawberry is offline
♏︎™t✝️ℌǝɯ ♓︎ļĶℊℌ
Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2020
Location: USA
Posts: 1,632
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by raulus View Post
^This.

How do we accelerate the process of hastening the exit of the goons?

Iím open to ideas. Thereís no such thing as a bad idea when it comes to the de-goonification of the hobby.
I don't think there's any area of American life that couldn't use some de-goonification these days.
__________________
_
Successful transactions with: Natswin2019, ParachromBleu, Cmount76, theuclakid, tiger8mush, shammus, jcmtiger, oldjudge, coolshemp, joejo20, Blunder19, ibechillin33, t206kid, helfrich91, Dashcol, philliesfan, alaskapaul3, Natedog, Kris19, frankbmd, tonyo, Baseball Rarities, Thromdog, T2069bk, t206fix, jakebeckleyoldeagleeye, Casey2296, rdeversole, brianp-beme, seablaster
Reply With Quote
  #30  
Old 11-02-2022, 07:25 PM
Fred's Avatar
Fred Fred is offline
Fred
Member
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 2,573
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by doug.goodman View Post
I hope the hobby can't be saved.

Then, when all the dorks are gone, the rest of us can enjoy again.

Doug
Uhhh... yeah! Nailed it.
__________________
fr3d c0wl3s - always looking for OJs and other 19th century stuff. PM or email me if you have something
cool you're looking to find a new home for.
Reply With Quote
  #31  
Old 11-02-2022, 07:45 PM
bbcard1 bbcard1 is offline
T0dd M@rcum
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Roanoke, VA
Posts: 3,162
Default

Ya know, I get everyone saying that the modern is in trouble, but where I see trouble I the low grade, ceased cards that are selling (or at least being offered) for $1, $2, $3 K+ each, especially the 1950s stuff. I could see a softening in low/mid grade.
Reply With Quote
  #32  
Old 11-02-2022, 08:18 PM
Johnny630 Johnny630 is online now
Johnny MaZilli
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 3,893
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by bbcard1 View Post
Ya know, I get everyone saying that the modern is in trouble, but where I see trouble I the low grade, ceased cards that are selling (or at least being offered) for $1, $2, $3 K+ each, especially the 1950s stuff. I could see a softening in low/mid grade.
Agree itís happening low grade and beat up vintage is everywhere itís not difficult to find. Demand in the dumpster division of vintage is down.
Reply With Quote
  #33  
Old 11-02-2022, 08:32 PM
Casey2296's Avatar
Casey2296 Casey2296 is offline
Is Mudville so bad?
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2020
Location: West Coast
Posts: 3,662
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny630 View Post
Agree itís happening low grade and beat up vintage is everywhere itís not difficult to find. Demand in the dumpster division of vintage is down.
Every veteran of pre war has said for years "buy the highest grade you can afford ", "and buy the Hofers first".

it's always been good advice.
__________________
Phil Lewis
.
E94 27/30
E94 Crawford color run 4/7
Bender White Cap back run 9/14
Original circulation E98 Master set 120/120

https://www.flickr.com/photos/183872512@N04/
-
Reply With Quote
  #34  
Old 11-02-2022, 08:46 PM
Johnny630 Johnny630 is online now
Johnny MaZilli
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 3,893
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Casey2296 View Post
Every veteran of pre war has said for years "buy the highest grade you can afford ", "and buy the Hofers first".

it's always been good advice.
Very Smart Advice !
Reply With Quote
  #35  
Old 11-02-2022, 10:17 PM
Exhibitman's Avatar
Exhibitman Exhibitman is offline
Ad@m W@r$h@w
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Beautiful Downtown Burbank
Posts: 11,968
Default

There isn't a 'market'; there are several. What happens with all the shiny crap has no relationship to what happens to T206 Wagners, which in turn has little to do with the demand for 1933 Goudey commons, and so on.

BTW, the lower grade collector is alive, well and spending from his $100 a month budget.
__________________
Read my blog; it will make all your dreams come true.

https://adamstevenwarshaw.substack.com/

Or not...
Reply With Quote
  #36  
Old 11-03-2022, 05:44 AM
cubman1941 cubman1941 is offline
Jim Boushley
Jim Bou.shley
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Kingsport Tennessee
Posts: 1,139
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by BioCRN View Post
One of my main collections is an All-time Cubs collection (not anywhere near as high quality as other collectors) that required a lot of deep digging to find players I personally gate-kept as worthy.

You're not going to find a lot of Hal Jeffcoat fans in Cubs history, but the guy is notable because he went from 6 years of playing OF (not well) to pitching (also, not well) for the Cubs for a couple years over the course of a winter off. He was traded to CIN where he continued to pitch for a few years. Maybe if he was effective at either he would be more well known, but that's a unique Cubs player.

Deep diving into the history of the Cubs has extremely deepened my knowledge of the team beyond the existing literature.
I am also a long time Cub guy, over 50 years. But I also found over the years that by diving deep into Cub history not only deepened my knowledge of the Cubs but baseball entirely. I got caught up in the 80's and 90's craze because that was the thing at the time. I became a set collector so bought box after box to put sets together. However, when the 1 of 1's and the "insert" cards started coming out I realized I could not longer put a set together so got out and started concentrating on pre 1948 Cubs. I sold all my newer stuff. I think that is what this video is all about. Covid came and people got caught up in "buy the new boxes cheap, sell the most expensive cards" and repeat. They were and still are not, for the most part true collectors, they are entrepreneurs who are now losing their shirt and complaining.
Reply With Quote
  #37  
Old 11-03-2022, 06:33 AM
Directly Directly is offline
Tom Re.bert
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 639
Default Future sports cards hobby predictions--who knows?

The year 1986--Fleer basketball was distributed by all the Candy Co, the product wasn't that rare, it just didn't sell--Fact --the delivery drivers were instructed to pickup all unsold boxes in their area then given the opportunity to purchase them for $6.00/box--one driver bought 35 boxes and opened then all. Yep, he had over 100 Jordan RC (approx. 3 sets per box), in fact anyone had the offer to buy them at that price--even so the company returned 3 cases back to their Fleer distributor!---who would had thought, if discussing Train Collectors future, for a comparison, please chime in ?
Reply With Quote
  #38  
Old 11-03-2022, 06:52 AM
Snapolit1's Avatar
Snapolit1 Snapolit1 is offline
Ste.ve Na.polit.ano
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 5,188
Default

Comparing the modern card market to vintage is like comparing people fighting over the latest high end Tesla to guys who collect vintage Camaros. Almost zero correlation or overlap.

The modern trading realm was jettisoned into the stratosphere by the world of box and case breakers. Buy a spot in a break for $995 and possibly pull the million dollar Zion or Justin Herbert. Pure gambling. 100% Buy a pricey lottery ticket. Spend a relatively modest amount and you too have a chance of pulling a million dollar card. Yes, there was a chance. Negligibly small, but there are plenty of videos of millions dollar pulls. Of course nothing like that on a large scale with vintage.

Complete apples to oranges. Not many 25 year old wheeler dealers are shelling out $50,000 for a high end vintage card. Not the same adrenaline rush.

I feel bad for guys who opened brick and mortar card shops at the height of the mania for modern. They are getting killed. No one is buying a $8,000 box of football cards right now. Nobody. And they prob can't sell the $800 boxes either. That bubble has officially burst. There is one breaking outfit I started watching in the pandemic and they are slow slow slow. Even laid a guy off recently.

Last edited by Snapolit1; 11-03-2022 at 06:54 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #39  
Old 11-03-2022, 07:39 AM
brob28's Avatar
brob28 brob28 is offline
Bi11..R0berts
Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Michigan
Posts: 1,128
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Leon View Post
The only crisis is me not being able to afford any great cards anymore.
.
Had to laugh when I saw this - I'm suffering through the same issue Leon.
__________________
Successful transactions with: Chesboro41, jimivintage, Bocabirdman, marcdelpercio, Jollyelm, Smanzari, asoriano, pclpads, joem36, nolemmings, t206blogcom, Northviewcats, Xplainer, Kickstand19, GrayGhost, btcarfango, Brian Van Horn, USMC09, G36, scotgreb, tere1071, kurri17, wrm, David James, tjenkins, SteveWhite, OhioCard Collector, sysks22, ejstel
Reply With Quote
  #40  
Old 11-03-2022, 08:10 AM
Exhibitman's Avatar
Exhibitman Exhibitman is offline
Ad@m W@r$h@w
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Beautiful Downtown Burbank
Posts: 11,968
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Snapolit1 View Post
Comparing the modern card market to vintage is like comparing people fighting over the latest high end Tesla to guys who collect vintage Camaros. Almost zero correlation or overlap.

The modern trading realm was jettisoned into the stratosphere by the world of box and case breakers. Buy a spot in a break for $995 and possibly pull the million dollar Zion or Justin Herbert. Pure gambling. 100% Buy a pricey lottery ticket. Spend a relatively modest amount and you too have a chance of pulling a million dollar card. Yes, there was a chance. Negligibly small, but there are plenty of videos of millions dollar pulls. Of course nothing like that on a large scale with vintage.

Complete apples to oranges. Not many 25 year old wheeler dealers are shelling out $50,000 for a high end vintage card. Not the same adrenaline rush.

I feel bad for guys who opened brick and mortar card shops at the height of the mania for modern. They are getting killed. No one is buying a $8,000 box of football cards right now. Nobody. And they prob can't sell the $800 boxes either. That bubble has officially burst. There is one breaking outfit I started watching in the pandemic and they are slow slow slow. Even laid a guy off recently.
From what I've been reading, there is a whiff of stinky from the breaking world. Someone did a mathematical analysis of the pulls by one breaking influencer and basically concluded that they either had the greatest luck in history or they were being fed loaded boxes by Panini in order to hype the brand. True? I have no idea. But no one has to hype Babe Ruth.
__________________
Read my blog; it will make all your dreams come true.

https://adamstevenwarshaw.substack.com/

Or not...

Last edited by Exhibitman; 11-03-2022 at 08:10 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #41  
Old 11-03-2022, 08:26 AM
parkplace33 parkplace33 is offline
Drew W@i$e
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Posts: 708
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Snapolit1 View Post
Comparing the modern card market to vintage is like comparing people fighting over the latest high end Tesla to guys who collect vintage Camaros. Almost zero correlation or overlap.

The modern trading realm was jettisoned into the stratosphere by the world of box and case breakers. Buy a spot in a break for $995 and possibly pull the million dollar Zion or Justin Herbert. Pure gambling. 100% Buy a pricey lottery ticket. Spend a relatively modest amount and you too have a chance of pulling a million dollar card. Yes, there was a chance. Negligibly small, but there are plenty of videos of millions dollar pulls. Of course nothing like that on a large scale with vintage.

Complete apples to oranges. Not many 25 year old wheeler dealers are shelling out $50,000 for a high end vintage card. Not the same adrenaline rush.

I feel bad for guys who opened brick and mortar card shops at the height of the mania for modern. They are getting killed. No one is buying a $8,000 box of football cards right now. Nobody. And they prob can't sell the $800 boxes either. That bubble has officially burst. There is one breaking outfit I started watching in the pandemic and they are slow slow slow. Even laid a guy off recently.
In the past yes, I would agree with you. But not right now. There is some correlation.

"A rising tide lifts all boats". Interest in any area of the hobby helps the entire hobby. But concern in one area has impact, abit small, in other areas.
Reply With Quote
  #42  
Old 11-03-2022, 08:28 AM
ullmandds's Avatar
ullmandds ullmandds is online now
pete ullman
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: saint paul, mn
Posts: 10,989
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Exhibitman View Post
From what I've been reading, there is a whiff of stinky from the breaking world. Someone did a mathematical analysis of the pulls by one breaking influencer and basically concluded that they either had the greatest luck in history or they were being fed loaded boxes by Panini in order to hype the brand. True? I have no idea. But no one has to hype Babe Ruth.
Shocking!
Reply With Quote
  #43  
Old 11-03-2022, 09:56 AM
timzcardz timzcardz is offline
T!M R10rd@n
Member
 
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Long Island, NY
Posts: 953
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by parkplace33 View Post
In the past yes, I would agree with you. But not right now. There is some correlation.

"A rising tide lifts all boats". Interest in any area of the hobby helps the entire hobby. But concern in one area has impact, abit small, in other areas.
Except that a boat with a hole in it just becomes further underwater.
__________________
Collector of all things Ripken, Yankees, 1958.

Successful transactions with:
300dw123, autograf, bn2cardz, buymycards, CobbvLajoie1910, Daves_resale_shop, frankbmd, GoCubsGo32, GoldenAge50s, GrayGhost, Head928, Jayworld, jdl860, jgmp123, kamikidEFFL, larrie804, Leerob538, lharri3600, Lordstan, megalimey, Orioles1954, quinnsryche, Redleg25, rjackson44, Rob D., SAllen2556, scmavl, slantycouch, slipk1068, Smanzari, TCMA, thetruthisouthere, Wolfgang427, yanks12025, ZackS
Reply With Quote
  #44  
Old 11-03-2022, 10:44 AM
Touch'EmAll Touch'EmAll is offline
Member
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 963
Default

There was a post a while back about collecting goals for the next year.

Like a few of you have mentioned, the stuff in grades I prefer to collect (er, used to) is now out of my budget. So to fill the void, I have been dabbling in a small handful of the the brightest current modern stars. I have been buying raw cards on ebay, then send to PSA and have been pleased with the results. It has been fun keeping the hobby alive for me in this way.

However, my real goal has been to not sell any of my pre-war. And I have stuck to that goal. Enjoy and hold what you already have.
Reply With Quote
  #45  
Old 11-03-2022, 11:35 AM
raulus raulus is offline
Nicol0 Pin.oli
 
Join Date: May 2022
Posts: 948
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Touch'EmAll View Post
There was a post a while back about collecting goals for the next year.

Like a few of you have mentioned, the stuff in grades I prefer to collect (er, used to) is now out of my budget. So to fill the void, I have been dabbling in a small handful of the the brightest current modern stars. I have been buying raw cards on ebay, then send to PSA and have been pleased with the results. It has been fun keeping the hobby alive for me in this way.

However, my real goal has been to not sell any of my pre-war. And I have stuck to that goal. Enjoy and hold what you already have.
Sounds like a fun approach.

You mentioned that the grades have been pleasing. Out of curiosity, just how pleasing? 9s and 10s?

While not the only thing I've been doing, I've been taking a similar approach to some of my childhood stars with pieces from 1980-2010. But my grades have been almost exclusively 8s and 9s, which was sub-optimal.
__________________
Trying to wrap up my master mays set, with just a few left:

M118 (PSA calls it 1963 Baseball Magazine)
1968 American Oil left side
1971 Bazooka numbered
1971 Bazooka numbered complete panel
Reply With Quote
  #46  
Old 11-03-2022, 11:39 AM
G1911 G1911 is offline
Gr.eg McCl.@y
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 4,839
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Exhibitman View Post
From what I've been reading, there is a whiff of stinky from the breaking world. Someone did a mathematical analysis of the pulls by one breaking influencer and basically concluded that they either had the greatest luck in history or they were being fed loaded boxes by Panini in order to hype the brand. True? I have no idea. But no one has to hype Babe Ruth.
And Topps got accused at about the same time of physically marking packs with a big hit for some reason.
Reply With Quote
  #47  
Old 11-03-2022, 01:08 PM
jsfriedm's Avatar
jsfriedm jsfriedm is offline
Jeremy
member
 
Join Date: May 2020
Location: Medford, MA
Posts: 138
Default

It seems that PWCC's November Premier Auction has been cancelled. Unrelated coincidence, or symptom of the market downturn?
__________________
186/240 1933 Goudeys (Ruth #144, #149, Gehrig #92)
109/208 T205s
13/108? Diamond Stars
Reply With Quote
  #48  
Old 11-03-2022, 01:40 PM
Cubs Fan Cubs Fan is offline
Steve
member
 
Join Date: May 2022
Location: AZ
Posts: 19
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Leon View Post
The only crisis is me not being able to afford any great cards anymore.
.
I totally agree with you Leon. I still lose most anything I try to go after so, not seeing much of a crisis at this point as it pertains to the vintage stuff most all of use love.
Reply With Quote
  #49  
Old 11-03-2022, 01:42 PM
raulus raulus is offline
Nicol0 Pin.oli
 
Join Date: May 2022
Posts: 948
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by jsfriedm View Post
It seems that PWCC's November Premier Auction has been cancelled. Unrelated coincidence, or symptom of the market downturn?
Color me surprised!

Just in October, they had 429 items, with some of the modern pieces selling for 7 figures or close to 7 figures.
__________________
Trying to wrap up my master mays set, with just a few left:

M118 (PSA calls it 1963 Baseball Magazine)
1968 American Oil left side
1971 Bazooka numbered
1971 Bazooka numbered complete panel
Reply With Quote
  #50  
Old 11-03-2022, 02:32 PM
Yoda Yoda is offline
Joh.n Spen.cer
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 1,562
Default

I think the recent comeback of card shows will fade as the market turns, particularly in those regional places you normally wouldn't expect to find one.
Reply With Quote
Reply



Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Ken Goldin Video on State of the Hobby mouschi Net54baseball Vintage (WWII & Older) Baseball Cards & New Member Introductions 104 10-06-2021 02:10 PM
A new hartland sports discussion group has formed whiteymet Net54baseball Sports (Primarily) Vintage Memorabilia Forum incl. Game Used 0 01-22-2011 05:48 PM
Grading discussion- Revolutionizing :) the hobby... Leon Net54baseball Vintage (WWII & Older) Baseball Cards & New Member Introductions 70 11-19-2010 02:17 PM
Sports Collectors Weigh Options Amid Crisis Archive Net54baseball Vintage (WWII & Older) Baseball Cards & New Member Introductions 7 10-08-2008 09:29 PM
Help me solve a baseball card mystery Archive Net54baseball Vintage (WWII & Older) Baseball Cards & New Member Introductions 20 10-07-2004 01:05 PM


All times are GMT -6. The time now is 05:50 AM.


ebay GSB