Gas prices and buying cards

[Directly]

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[ParisianJohn]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

The vintage card market had a major correction 2007 2008 with the financial /housing crisis, it could happen again. The effects of this won’t be felt until 6 to 8 months down the road.

Remember it’s never a gain until you sell for a profit and it’s never a loss until you sell for a loss, it’s all unrealized, staying in the game is the key !

I wondered about the exact impact of 2008 since I wasn't in the vintage game then.

I collected cards as a kid in the Junk Wax era of the 1980s and early 1990s, then came into vintage cards in 2012 in my mid-30s. I did a lot of collecting from 2012-2015 but then tailed off after my kids were born, but an circling back now.

In 2012 (if I recall correctly) people saying prices were just starting to get back to where they were in 2008 for low and mid-range cards in particular. By the time I stopped collecting in 2015 I noticed that many cards that I'd bought in 2012-2013 were selling for 20-25% higher than what I'd paid for them. It was a pretty rapid climb.

Last year I had heard about how during COVID people got into cards as a hobby (thanks in part of stimulus checks) and prices were spiking, especially for marquee names. I was pleasantly shocked to see, for example, that the PSA 3.5 Cy Young portrait I bought in 2013 for $600 was selling for something like $2,500. My PSA 7 of Babe Ruth's 1932 Sanella was somehow selling for 15 times what I got it at.

I imagined as COVID was waning and people stopped getting stimulus checks that prices would correct. And now you add inflation and then the war in Ukraine and all these sanctions (which will probably spur some massive cyber criminal activities) and now I wonder just how far they'll drop and for how long.

I'd guess things will discourage low and mid-range card buyers from snatching up as much as they have the past few years, and that this will drop prices for several years. Then again, I'm really bad at predicting things!

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by ParisianJohn

I wondered about the exact impact of 2008 since I wasn't in the vintage game then.

I collected cards as a kid in the Junk Wax era of the 1980s and early 1990s, then came into vintage cards in 2012 in my mid-30s. I did a lot of collecting from 2012-2015 but then tailed off after my kids were born, but an circling back now.

In 2012 (if I recall correctly) people saying prices were just starting to get back to where they were in 2008 for low and mid-range cards in particular. By the time I stopped collecting in 2015 I noticed that many cards that I'd bought in 2012-2013 were selling for 20-25% higher than what I'd paid for them. It was a pretty rapid climb.

Last year I had heard about how during COVID people got into cards as a hobby (thanks in part of stimulus checks) and prices were spiking, especially for marquee names. I was pleasantly shocked to see, for example, that the PSA 3.5 Cy Young portrait I bought in 2013 for $600 was selling for something like $2,500. My PSA 7 of Babe Ruth's 1932 Sanella was somehow selling for 15 times what I got it at.

I imagined as COVID was waning and people stopped getting stimulus checks that prices would correct. And now you add inflation and then the war in Ukraine and all these sanctions (which will probably spur some massive cyber criminal activities) and now I wonder just how far they'll drop and for how long.

I'd guess things will discourage low and mid-range card buyers from snatching up as much as they have the past few years, and that this will drop prices for several years. Then again, I'm really bad at predicting things!

Agree John…..low grade and middle grade stars are not selling anywhere close to what they were selling for last year….they never should have sold for those numbers in the first place.

People are being very very frugal….as I mentioned before higher end graded in auction is immune from any downturn/bear market or recession….it doesn’t matter to them. They’re still gonna go crazy for PSA 8’s and 9’s.

[Rhotchkiss]

There are many things about today that remind me of the junk wax era, where card values spiked like the gold rush and then crashed like a Led Zeppelin (that’s how they got their name). There are also things today that remind me of the Great Recession in 2008, when card prices dropped and did not rebound, in some cases, until a decade later. Like those periods, I would think we are currently in a bubble, poised for a price tumble, but for several factors that did not exist during the junk wax and Great Recession: namely, serious outside investment by third parties, considerable innovation within the industry, and widespread press and acceptance as an “asset class” by large financial and media sources. Because of these new variables, I don’t think card prices go down. In fact, I think there is a lot of room for prices/values to grow. I am not sure this applies across the board- and I certainly don’t pretend to know enough about modern to make any conclusions there- but I believe that Ruth, Cobb, Wagner, Jackson, t206, cracker jacks, etc (the vintage blue chip stuff) has room to grow as the hobby continues to mature into an asset class. I believe this is true regardless of gas prices and/or a war in Ukraine; all bets off, however, if Ukraine turns into WWIII

[VintageBall]

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

Nope, it's still 100% the current administration's fault. Since you lack the understanding why, I'll PM you the answer when I get back later today because I don't want to get an infraction for talking politics. I've actually touched on it twice in this thread, but I'll just come out and say it in my PM..

Wow. 100%. That means that there isn't even 1 percent of blame placed at Putin's feet or that of any other party.

Even the right-est of right wingers on the Hill won't express such certainty. Even they lay a little of the blame on the guy sending in those tanks and bombs.

You should probably PM Republican Congressional leadership first before you PM me. They would love to be able to use your talking points.

"Reductivism: the practice of considering or presenting something complicated in a simple way, especially a way that is too simple."

I really thought you were making some good points until your last post. Of course, unlike you, I wasn't 100 percent sure of this last sentence of mine. You probably had even changed some minds. Oh well. Easy come, easy go.

[Foo3112]

Leon, can we just get rid of this thread already.

[GeoPoto]

Speaking to Rotchkiss: The "special/new factors" you cite as likely to mitigate any correction in collectable values strike me in an opposite way -- likely to exacerbate the severity of the correction, which is now virtually certain to occur soon. There is no way to stop an inflationary trend once it reaches double digits (Putin's contribution, despite Biden's rheteric, is not in the numbers yet) except by 1) limiting the availability of money until interest rates exceed the rate of inflation: and 2) limiting federal spending until it becomes credible that the existing debt can be serviced and eventually repaid. The recession that will occur when these steps are taken will have the same effect on card values as 2008, but worse because interest rates will be much higher.

Sent from my moto g(6) using Tapatalk

[Gnep31]

Originally Posted by Foo3112

Leon, can we just get rid of this thread already.

Who is forcing you to read it?

As with filling up a truck for more than $125 (my last purchase), it comes down to what one can afford. There are wants and needs.

Do you need gas? Most of yes. Do you need that card? If your answer is yes then you can afford the current inflation. The more this current administrations policies increase inflation it is only natural that our needs and wants will change.

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by VintageBall

You should probably PM Republican Congressional leadership first before you PM me. They would love to be able to use your talking points.

At least my talking points are MY talking points based on my own opinions, experiences and knowledge. You on the other hand are a typical modern-day journalist. You lack the intelligence to formulate your own talking points so you copy and paste from others. Sad really.

Refresh my memory. Who was it that got caught plagiarizing Neil Kinnock's speech as well as the speeches of several others? His name is on the tip of my tongue, but I just can't recall it.

[VintageBall]

Here i thought I might learn something from an expert. I naively thought that mistakes had been made by Obama, Trump, Biden, Merkle, Putin and others, in terms of dealing with Russian expansion and energy policies. I thought we would all learn that the answer was nuanced and came with data and statistics and facts not readily known by those not fluently conversant with the realities of your industry (gas, oil and energy). I naively thought that the price at the pump was due to a plethora of factors.

But nope, I've now been told by an expert that the answer is simple and 100% the fault of one party.

And that answer comes with personal insults.

Well done.

You must be proud.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Foo3112

Leon, can we just get rid of this thread already.

I am good with that.
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