There's Real Dough Is In Rare Ultra High Condition Cards

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Posted By: Jodi Birkholm

<<I've got a high grade Trotsky for sale.>>

Am I correct to assume it's a Mexican League card?

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Posted By: T206Collector

"PUTIH KOLEKTS TOLCTOU"

(Putin collects Tolstois)




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Posted By: JimB

If the consignor has second thoughts and wants to buy their cards back and is willing to pay the BP to do it, what is so wrong?
JimB

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Posted By: JK

Jim,

As long as he wins the card - you are correct. If he does not win the card, then he may have artificially bid up the final price to the detriment of the ultimate winner and to his own benefit. Its a fine line between legitimately wanting to win your card back and shilling.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Jim- if the consignor is permitted to buy back his cards, that is another way of saying it is a reserve auction. In that case, it should state "reserve auction" in the rules. That is something that can not be hidden from the bidders.

Thanks for the heads up...I really have to quit sniffing glue.

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Posted By: Rob D.

Wow, two typos in a Barry Sloate post. Stop the presses.

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Posted By: leon

I feel like locking the thread so Barry can't correct his typos....Now THAT would be torture...

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Posted By: barrysloate

It's done...!!!

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Posted By: Rob D.

Cannot, not can not.

Correct?

Edited to add: Also, heads-up, not heads up, whether a noun or an adjective.

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Posted By: Jodi Birkholm

Cor rect.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Both "cannot" and "can not" are acceptable.

I corrected two others, so you must have missed one. Not a good day for me.

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Posted By: Rob D.

I'm going by Webster's, which lists cannot as preferred, and the AP style manual, which lists cannot.

This must be captivating for 90 percent of the board.

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Posted By: barrysloate

In any case where there are two usages, one will be preferred. It doesn't mean that the other is incorrect (we are putting everyone to sleep).

You know, I can't remember any situation in which I spelled "cannot" as one word. I never even thought about it. Live and learn.

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Posted By: CoreyRS.hanus

Auctions that are legitmately run disclose all information in an auction house's possession that a reasonably prudent bidder would want to know about the item. And if I'm bidding on an item, I sure as blazes would want to know if I am competing against the consignor, regardless if he is paying the BP. And why would I want to know this? Because it might cross my mind that as a practical matter no matter what I bid I will not win. The great majority of consignors who decide to buy back their own items do not do it because they had a sudden change of heart whether to sell. They do it because all along there was a secret undisclosed reserve. If the reserve is not met, the consignor will feel he has established a new market level for the item, to be taken advantage of at some future date when he gives it another shot to try to reach his reserve. And guess what? Poof, the item more often than not will magically appear at auction within the next several years, often with the same auction house that "sold" it the first time and usually accompanied with some fanciful tale why the delighted buyer of a few years back has decided to sell.

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Posted By: Anthony S.

"In Soviet Union, cards buy you!"

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Posted By: Jodi Birkholm

Thanks for getting my reference! I wasn't sure if anybody knew that one.

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Posted By: Eric Pugh

excellent points Corey.

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Posted By: Rob D.

Jodi, I got it. I'm not really in the habit of posting Yakov pictures for no reason.

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Corey's points are very significant; alas, the chances of many (if any) auction houses and consignors actually following through on them are nil.

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Posted By: Anonymous

Frank: "Only kings, presidents, editors, and people with tapeworms have the right to use the editorial 'we'." Mark Twain--thanks for the LOL moment this a.m.

Have to disagree with you on content, tho. Lots of people collect slabbed cards and lots care about the money aspects. To each his own (even if they are just dead wrong ).

I have to wonder what Borat would say about our hobby:

Jak sie masz? My name-a Borat. Today we visit with American men who pay large moneys for little cards of pictures other men. These men must be make a sexy time with each other, yes? Man spend $270,000 for one card! Enough to buy every prostitute in Astana and still have money to hire men to kill my neighbor Nursultan Tuyakbay. He is pain in my a**. I get a window from a glass, he must get a window from a glass. I get a step, he must get a step. I get a clock radio, he cannot afford. Great success!

Sic Gorgiamus Allos Subjectatos Nunc

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Posted By: Matt

Adam - well done! I'm on the floor.

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Posted By: Frank Wakefield

Well I'm ok with folks disagreeing with me... haven't fussed at a
one of you.

And maybe a few folks are ok with me not agreeing with them? Or
maybe not.



But think about it. "There's real dough in rare ultra high
condition _________ ." And fill in the blank. Cars, aircraft,
canceled stock certificates, coins, dolls, diamonds, boats,
jewelry, arrowheads, pottery, books, campaign buttons, firearms,
autographs, movie posters, Kentucky Derby glasses, art... There's
great value in anything that is rare and in ultra high condition.
So what is the great revelation there??

I didn't even pick on the double verb in the thread title. The real
dough is in, or There's real dough in... but not There's real dough
is in...

I'd rather read a back combination thread about T206s. Still, I've
chimed in now, so I'm at peace, you guys go ahead!




And one solidarity edit

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Posted By: Eric Pugh

Bruce,

you always say "high grade rarities". Sincerely would like to know your team's opinion on lower graded scarcities (ie - honus t206 in psa 1, etc). thx

Eric

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Is the evidence substantial enough now that high grade vintage sportscards are a good investment?

Is the evidence enough that prices are relatively insensitive to economic conditions?

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Posted By: leon

I don't think you can generalize by saying "high grade cards". Check out the T206 PSA 8 prices.....I can buy them for about 50% of what they were 2 yrs ago...And I understand fully the "pop report" too......

So, if you were to say "Are certain high grade cards good investments?" I would say "yes". I would NOT say ALL of them are though....

For me, I prefer true rarity over condition rarity but that is beside the point. What do you think is going to happen when the hundreds of vintage cases (I presume)of Larry Fritsch's (RIP) cards come to market? I would say those low pop high grade 50's-80's might have a big problem......but only if value is a concern....regards

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Posted By: Rob D.

What do you think is going to happen when the hundreds of vintage cases (I presume)of Larry Fritsch's (RIP) cards come to market?

PSA responds with grades 8.0, 8.1, 8.2, 8.3, 8.4, etc.?

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Posted By: boxingcardman

Like anything else, high grade cards as a class are a mixed bag.

I'll take straight rarity over condition rarity every time; no worries about pop reports, hoards, some grader having a brain fart and "minting" another one, or some shady character having altered the card before the slabbers got hold of it.

Sic Gorgiamus Allos Subjectatos Nunc

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Posted By: steve

Simple concept: To get great prices, you gatta have strong demand. Rare is all good and everything, ultra high grade sure is nice, but without demand are poor prices.

Just because you have a vintage PSA one-of-one doesn't guarantee a million dollars, even if its a major HOFer.

Example: I have a couple Ruth 1920's Exhibits both PSA 5 - only like 3 or less in that grade or higher. Probably get $2.5 - 3k at most with big time auction. But a T206 Cobb greenie PSA 5 gets at least $4.5k when there are 30somthing in PSA pop reports (allegedly).

steve

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Everyone talks about these incredible record-breaking prices as if they're gospel. I'd like to see the bidding records for some of these auctions. And the checks that were sent in to the auction houses to pay for these cards.

There's currently a federal criminal investigation underway concerning fraud in the baseball card auction business. Are hobbyists still not convinced that there is a great incentive for certain consignors and auction houses to engage in shill bidding to not only defraud buyers but also to create a false impression over the current state of the market -- so that when the same card gets sold in the future the fake previous sales price is used as a touchstone?

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Posted By: andy becker

jeff, those concerns are legitimate.....but they are not excluse to the baseball card world. the same concerns are valid in any auction enviroment.

fine art, coins, stamps, any liquidation sale.....which is what an auction really is.

are the feds investigating? yes. does the problem exist? probably.

is the problem so widespread that most auction sales are not legit? i don't think so.

in general, i take things at face value until proven otherwise. no proof of anything has been stated.

that said, i'm sure this has happened in the past and will in the future....i would respectfully suggest that a bidder should not bid more than he/she is willing to pay for a card. if that suggestion is followed, the point becomes moot.

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Posted By: T206Collector

"Is the evidence substantial enough now that high grade vintage sportscards are a good investment?"

It's not enough for the card to be high grade, or for that high grade to be a low pop for that grade, what you want is a scarce card first, followed by low pop for that grade.

In short, I think when Bruce said "Rare Ultra High Condition," the "Rare" was modifying "Card" not "Ultra High Condition."


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Posted By: JimB

FYI, I just spoke to a friend who won several of the D304s and he was NOT the consignor.
JimB

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Posted By: JimB

Corey,
You make some good points.
JimB

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

"in general, i take things at face value until proven otherwise. no proof of anything has been stated."

Andy, when you look on VCP and see a certain card in PSA 7 that has sold for x dollars, plus or minus 5%, ten times in a row -- and then it sells for 3x that is called circumstantial proof that something stinks. Unfortunately, it happens a lot in the baseball card auction world.

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Posted By: leon

I tend to agree with you as to what Bruces were referring to. The responses that were the latest in this thread were to Jim C....From previous posting on the board it seems Bruce does care about the history and the cards, and likes them in high grade, whereas Jim C mainly cares about the # on the plastic and not the cards or the history, at least I have never seen any of his posts about those things........and I am not saying anything bad about collecting by the # on the flip if that is what moves you. However, when that number gets crowded by other numbers that are the same or higher, then the value will go down, generally speaking (supply vs demand)..And that was the basis for the latest discussion...best regards

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Posted By: T206Collector

...You and I are on the same page. My post was in response to Jim C's effort to broaden what I think was the very narrow scope of Bruce's post to cover all high grade card, including 1968 Topps basketball commons in PSA 9 condition.

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Posted By: larry

perception and # of people collecting a card is what drives the price
1952 topps mantles are hardly rare yet the price keeps going up in 7 or better MANY COLLECTORS OF 52s and Mantle
there are at least 50 t206 wagners and in poor 1 it keeps going up
PERCEPTION of rarity
amany many examples of these kind of prices
yet when a card is rare like 1961 dice game less then 5 in existence or 1967 stand ups thick version less than 10
even when it comes to mantle the price doesnt really move
not many collectors and not widespread knowledge of the issues
Id rather have a set of dice games then a set of 52s anytime
if money was no object

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Posted By: Scott Fandango

[img][/img]


is that Mr Mint in his Glory Days?

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Posted By: Steve

Corey the way I read it was since the seller of the (D304's)
did not win the item he was freeing the cash up for he would buy back his D304's at any price.

I think that was what JK was insinuating.

Steve


Edited for clarity.

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Posted By: Andrew

What do people think of the Pacific Coast Biscuit Peckinpaugh PSA 7 hammer price, which was $3614 before the juice? Demand for PCL is very high these past few years, so I thought a NM example would have fetched much more.

"Take your life in your own hands and what happens? A terrible thing: no one to blame." -- Erica Jong

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Posted By: andy becker

"Andy, when you look on VCP and see a certain card in PSA 7 that has sold for x dollars, plus or minus 5%, ten times in a row -- and then it sells for 3x that is called circumstantial proof that something stinks. Unfortunately, it happens a lot in the baseball card auction world."

jeff, i think your example is illustrating one of two things.
1. "must have" thinking on the part of two bidders (silly snipes come to mind)
2. two bidder not aware of market value

both occur in auctions.

could it be a sham? sure it could. anything is possible. but that example, even if there are numerous similar examples, does not lead me to believe that it was a crooked auction.

collector's focus will change. some pop in and some pop out, that's what i was talking about when i said timing is everything in an auction.

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Posted By: Marc S.

there has been a STEEP drop-off in T-206 PSA 8 cards over the past 12 months. This has been felt in PSA 5-7 cards, too, but many of the low population T-206 commons in PSA 8 have not been hitting fairly stagnant [or declining] asking prices for some time now.

For example, in the latest Mastro auction, a T-206 PSA 8.5 NM/MT+, population one with none graded higher only hit $4k. I remember people trying to get $10K+ for pop. 1 PSA 8 commons from T-206 in '06 and '07.

So it is not a broad-felt appreciation, from my perspective.

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Posted By: Bruce Dorskind

This has been an interesting thread with a wide range of perspectives.

Our original comment on rare ultra high grades was limited to pre World War II
cards. Whilst many Topps cards command very high prices- the population is always
changing and, in some cases, an event will occur which will affect value- such as a
player being admitted to the Hall of Fame or a "find"

This is generally not the case with pre-war high grade type cards.
In our view, T 206s are a world on to themselves Whilst there are
probably more than 1000 collectors of the T206 set, there are probably less
than 10 who collect PSA 7 and above. At least 15% of the cards in the
set have only 1 or 2 examples that grade 8 or above.

Unlike other sets, there are dozens of T 206s of minor leaguers who have very few name
recognition and completing the set is a massive exercise. For type collectors, regardless
of the grade T 206 is easy.

When large group of cards appears at once (i.e. Steve Novella earlier this summer) and many of the cards
have unrealistically high reserves it is not surprising to see a negative impact on pricing.

Cracker Jacks, to a lesser extent, are subject to flat or downward pricing because there are large number of high grade cards available- most 1915 CJs, even in PSA 8 are not rare.

Other sets like E 93, E 94 R333, R328 are rare or relatively rare i ultra high grades.
When a HOF is auctioned- prices almost rise with each subsequent auction.

Finally, the "through the roof prices" that certain HOF cards realize can often be traced to the three whales
and a dozen other specialized collectors. As long as this "special population" of $1 million a year
spenders remains in the 10-25 person range, prices will remain very strong. If two-five whales and baby whales lose interest the way Copeland and others have then you may witness a very different scenario.

Enjoy whatever you collect


Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List

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Posted By: LetsGoBucs

Finally, the "through the roof prices" that certain HOF cards realize can often be traced to the three whales
and a dozen other specialized collectors. As long as this "special population" of $1 million a year
spenders remains in the 10-25 person range, prices will remain very strong. If two-five whales and baby whales lose interest the way Copeland and others have then you may witness a very different scenario.
----------------------------
We've had this thread in similar forms many times. I think this statement above shows why there is more "risk" with high grade baseball cards. I agree that as long as there are the 10-20 individuals putting seven figures into cards every year that there will be appreciation in card prices for the "best".

But if you compare those 10-20 to art collectors, or stamp collectors, or coin collectors then suddenly there is a different perspective. The main question to ask is....Will there be more or less seven figure collectors in the future? Personally I think there will be less. I can remember in the early 90's where basically there were no buyers of most material over $5000. I also remember the flight of investors from Stamps in the late 1970's/early 80's and I believe we will see the same thing in baseball cards.

My own opinion is that the best investment is a combination of true rarity combined with popularity (ie HOF), and that condition is third on that list. But the nice thing about this debate is that time will tell

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Posted By: JimCrandell

T206 Guy--I did say vintage sportscards--you may consider 1968 vintage but I don't.

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Posted By: boxingcardman

There are also some very interested very rich collectors out there who pay a lot for cards. I am dubious of the claimed results from some of the auctioneers out there; others not. Perhaps what we need are more live auctions so everyone can see the bidding under way?

Sic Gorgiamus Allos Subjectatos Nunc