Why do many put so much emphasis on PAST sales??

[Redleg25]

As someone that buys and sells (to support my own card habit) almost daily, I'm constantly running across buyers and sellers who use past sales as definitive current value. I use to subscribe to VCP but I found the market move too quick these days. To shorten my point, PAST sales are just that, sales in the PAST. That particular deal is done, over, complete. There are thousands of completed sales that I'd love to have bought or sold a card at the price. Sure, using prior sales as a EXTREMELY loose guide can be helpful but what matters is how much can you buy a comparable card for TODAY. Another aspect that gets lost in "comps " is no two PSA 1s or SGC 3s etc are the same. Every 50, 70, 110 year old card aged differently.
I learn something from this site daily, curious how other far more seasoned, intelligent minds in the hobby than I feel about this.

[G1911]

What else would you reasonably use to value a card? If I'm looking at card X in Y condition and I see it's sold in similar grade 7 times over the last few months, using those 7 sales gives me a good idea of it's current value to discuss price.

Sure, the market can change, and no, one shouldn't use sales from long ago, and yes, using a single BIN can give a misleading value, but if a card sold publicly and recently for Z it's generally worth about Z. Especially when it's a more common item with numerous sales.

What else would you use to value a card if you completely ignore other sales and its sale history?

[bobbyw8469]

People use comps for a reason.

[mrreality68]

It is not a rule set in stone it is just a guide to see what similar cards and grades went for.
Both short term and long term past sales both help to set what is the appreciation rate or the depreciation rate(usually going up)
Otherwise how else can anyone have an idea what the card you want might be worth or what you want to pay

[Leon]

Originally Posted by bobbyw8469

People use comps for a reason.

But in the pre war space the comps of a 2.5 and another 2.5 could be wildly different. I have paid more for some downgrades than the cards they replaced because of eye appeal. Average cards are easier to comp....but what are the comps on a T206 Young portrait in a 2.5 holder? Probably less than I paid for this when I bought it, and I would do it every time.
Buy the (aesthetics of the) card not the holder unless you are a registry person then buy the slab for that extra half point. And I am not dissing on registry guys. If they are having fun collecting then they should do more of it!!
.

[Johnny630]

Because they were pushed and over inflated

[Luke]

Past sales are probably the most important piece of info, but then there are a bunch of other factors to consider like how long ago the last sale was, where the market has moved in the meantime, eye appeal for the grade, etc.

[doug.goodman]

Well, it's certainly easier to use past sales as a guide than to use future sales.

Although, I have a number of items which will sell for a million dollars in the future, but I'm willing to sell them to anybody interested for 50% off, due my needing an infusion of cash to buy a new house.

I will sell for 90% off to the OP for the next 24 hours.

Doug "I'll throw this Garagiola card in for free" Goodman

[Oscar_Stanage]

Originally Posted by Luke

Past sales are probably the most important piece of info, but then there are a bunch of other factors to consider like how long ago the last sale was, where the market has moved in the meantime, eye appeal for the grade, etc.

I would also add: date the card was graded, frequency of sales, medium (for example 10 Ebay September sales ~ $100 and 1 $500 sale on PWCC).