1887 Old Judge survival rates???

[Zone91]

Does anyone here who has a lot of experience with this series have a ''general'' idea of the survival rates for these cards? I know some are unique but I mean for the other cards common to rarer ones? I know this is subjective to each person but I would still like to know your opinions.

I know this may be common knowledge for some but not for me.

[Zone91]

Any information would be greatly appreciated?

[cyseymour]

What do you mean by survival rates? Do you mean the percentage that survived compared to how many were produced? Or simply the remaining populations? About 2/3's of graded OJ's are graded by SGC, so you can check their pop reports to get an idea of how many there are... although there are also ungraded OJ's sitting in private collections. That's the case for almost any type of card, though I believe there are some advanced collectors with extensive ungraded collections.

That said, they are certainly all more scarce than T206's. And each player tends to have several poses. In fact, I would say that there is not a single OJ pose produced that is as common as the T206 Wagner. A lot of the New York and Boston OJ's are the most common, since it was such a popular team. Cards of King Kelly, Keefe, Clarkson, Ward, etc. Jimmy Ryan and George Gore... popular players from popular teams.

That's why your Keefe card was so affordable, because he is one of the more common HOF'ers. But don't think that your card isn't scarce because of that - in fact, it's still much more scarce than a T206 HOFer, especially if you break the population down by pose - something that is rarely done, but probably ought to be for a fair contrast to T206's since many T206 HOFers have 3-4 poses.

So for population reports, I would say that your "common" OJ is still probably 10x as scarce as a T206... and about 40x as scarce if you were going to break those common OJ's down by pose. Now, if you find an OJ with a nice image, like your Keefe, those are even more scarce since so many OJ's are faded, and you have something really special at a really nice price, imo.

[HRBAKER]

I've always thought just the sheer number of Old Judges and T206s that are still hanging around gives insight into just how prevalent smoking was in the late 19th and early 20th century compared to now.

[insidethewrapper]

My dad is still alive and collected Goudey's in the 1930's and was always looking for # 106. I asked him about tobacco cards and he stated "he never knew they existed in the 1930's". I guess he didn't have any relatives that smoked. Also very poor in the 1930's.

It is really surprising how that many cards survived with all the paper shortages and paper drives of WWI and WWII, since most would be destroyed over the years. Hard to believe any could be graded high after all these years. I don't believe the cards from the top collectors back then received many high grades. Correct me if I'm wrong. Remember they didn't have supplies to protect the cards back then. How did the high grades survive ?

[Zone91]

Thanks guys it makes one even appreciate them even more knowing this information!!!

As for my Keefe it will stay a very long time in my collection most likely till I pass away and I am only 32 years old so hopefully I can enjoy it for a long time and add some more cards to my collection every year. I have no need to sell any cards I will be buying especially ones from the 1800's that ''can't'' be replaced....money is not always everything in these situations.

[paul]

Keep looking and you may even find Hall of Famers in decent condition for less than your Keefe. It won't happen too often, but here is one:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/251245263732...=STRK:MEWAX:IT

[Leon]

Personally, and this is going to sound wild, but I think there are more than 100,000 T206s still to be uncovered from inherited hoards. I just now got off the phone with a lady that has 120'ish T206s she got from her mom who passed away not too long ago. Add those to the 500'ish we just had in our auction and there is 600 right there...and my auction and this board is a tiny splinter of what is out there, imo. I would also guess there are many thousands of N172s still to be found. Just my opinion.....

[Zone91]

Leon

I hope you are right simply because I have almost no money invested in these cards yet and would not mind if they where cheaper because of more finds that way I could collect them and still have fun but for less money.

I know some have invested a LOT of money in these cards so it would be a bad blow to them.

I would love to see more Old Judges found that way more collectors could get those cards that are at the moment impossible to find.

I am NOT collecting for profit just for simple pleasure so more cards exists the more fun I could have.

[ullmandds]

It'd be quite foolish to put a whole lot of credence into pop reports...or to assume what cards u/we see...is all there are. Aside from the fact they are not accurate...there are a ton of ungraded cards out there.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

It'd be quite foolish to put a whole lot of credence into pop reports...or to assume what cards u/we see...is all there are. Aside from the fact they are not accurate...there are a ton of ungraded cards out there.

I cringe at pop reports on pre-war cards. And I think my estimates above are quite realistic, if not low. I also don't think the values or prices will come down, even with new finds, unless there are great hoards (Black Swamp etc...) of a certain type card found. A hundred thousand T206s would be eaten up quickly..... I also think there are more collectors than we think there are....

[Zone91]

Leon

I am OK with either way this could go....I am just collecting for fun and fun I am having with these cards. So much to learn and that is perfect by me!!!

I appreciate your input!!!

[z28jd]

Originally Posted by Leon

I cringe at pop reports on pre-war cards. And I think my estimates above are quite realistic, if not low. I also don't think the values or prices will come down, even with new finds, unless there are great hoards (Black Swamp etc...) of a certain type card found. A hundred thousand T206s would be eaten up quickly..... I also think there are more collectors than we think there are....

That last sentence got me wondering Leon. Maybe a post, with your approval of course, asking how many people collect certain things that they don't go to message boards for. I have a modest coin collection and two antique cars now(about ten others at some point in the past), but haven't visited a forum on either in years(coins never). Just wondering how many people collect something popular, but never talk about it.

I've visited this site and prior forms of it, since back in the fullcount day, and for the most part, it has been daily. For some reasons, other things I collect, I don't talk about with others. Could be cards have much more of a background, with stories attached(aka stats) than coins or cars do.

I would think if you get a high response to it with people who don't visit other forums, it would show just how many people might collect old cards but never venture over here. Especially if it is coming from people who collect and post here.

Someone feel free to make a post if that sounds interesting. If it isn't that interesting, just means I have too much free time to think about strange things

[Leon]

Originally Posted by z28jd

That last sentence got me wondering Leon. Maybe a post, with your approval of course, asking how many people collect certain things that they don't go to message boards for. I have a modest coin collection and two antique cars now(about ten others at some point in the past), but haven't visited a forum on either in years(coins never). Just wondering how many people collect something popular, but never talk about it.

I've visited this site and prior forms of it, since back in the fullcount day, and for the most part, it has been daily. For some reasons, other things I collect, I don't talk about with others. Could be cards have much more of a background, with stories attached(aka stats) than coins or cars do.

I would think if you get a high response to it with people who don't visit other forums, it would show just how many people might collect old cards but never venture over here. Especially if it is coming from people who collect and post here.

Someone feel free to make a post if that sounds interesting. If it isn't that interesting, just means I have too much free time to think about strange things

Go for whatcha know John. It is amazing how many people in the US still don't have a computer or internet access. I don't know the percentage but it's quite a few. We probably both have too much free time.

[autograf]

One thing to reiterate is all the non-grading collectors of Old Judge out there that there are. I know there are a handful of people with over 1000 poses (each) or more who aren't huge graders of their cards. I think it's the issue, the fact that they arent selling them right now, and other factors that keep all those out of the pop report.

[z28jd]

Originally Posted by autograf

One thing to reiterate is all the non-grading collectors of Old Judge out there that there are. I know there are a handful of people with over 1000 poses (each) or more who aren't huge graders of their cards. I think it's the issue, the fact that they arent selling them right now, and other factors that keep all those out of the pop report.

I think it is a big number too, but as cards switch hands, there is a more likely chance they will get graded. Most of the time, once they get graded, they stay graded. So eventually the pop reports will mean a lot more than they do now. As long as grading stays around, the % of ungraded pre-war cards will continue to diminish(even if big discoveries are made).

I personally have over 1000 pre-war cards, a good % of them raw and I have never sent anything to be graded. There are some things I have though, that I might eventually sell and I'd get them graded first.

[Paul S]

Originally Posted by Leon

I also don't think the values or prices will come down, even with new finds, unless there are great hoards (Black Swamp etc...) of a certain type card found. A hundred thousand T206s would be eaten up quickly..... I also think there are more collectors than we think there are....

Yup. and 100,000 T206s would come out in drips and drabs, not unleashed all at once (like the Black Swamp), and so price drops would be barely noticed. I do wish that 100,000 pre 1900 would show up at once, as they are starting to fascinate me

[cyseymour]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

It'd be quite foolish to put a whole lot of credence into pop reports...or to assume what cards u/we see...is all there are. Aside from the fact they are not accurate...there are a ton of ungraded cards out there.

Certainly, but although pop reports may not be accurate, they can give someone a general sense of a card's rarity. For instance, if you see that a certain number of Amos Rusie's are graded, while three times as many Monte Ward's are graded, that can give you a general sense that Rusie might be about three times as rare as Ward.

I understand that there are lot of problems with crossovers and crack and re-submits, etc. But no one will no for sure exactly how many of a card are circulating in the hobby (unless it's very rare, perhaps). But for the general purpose of the beginning collector, I think that pop reports can be a good resource as a general guide, even if the only thing that is certain is that they are inaccurate.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by cyseymour

Certainly, but although pop reports may not be accurate, they can give someone a general sense of a card's rarity. For instance, if you see that a certain number of Amos Rusie's are graded, while three times as many Monte Ward's are graded, that can give you a general sense that Rusie might be about three times as rare as Ward.

I understand that there are lot of problems with crossovers and crack and re-submits, etc. But no one will no for sure exactly how many of a card are circulating in the hobby (unless it's very rare, perhaps). But for the general purpose of the beginning collector, I think that pop reports can be a good resource as a general guide, even if the only thing that is certain is that they are inaccurate.

The flaw in that thinking is that collectors generally get more expensive cards graded, thereby making a pop report erroneous when trying to figure a true population, not just the graded card pop.

[ullmandds]

what Leon said!!!

[cyseymour]

Originally Posted by Leon

The flaw in that thinking is that collectors generally get more expensive cards graded, thereby making a pop report erroneous when trying to figure a true population, not just the graded card pop.

The first sentence from my previous post:

"although pop reports may not be accurate, they can give someone a general sense of a card's rarity"

[Joe_G.]

Come on people, population reports can absolutely provide useful information/trends IF:

1) there is a sufficient sample size
2) avoid apples / oranges comparisons

There are always exceptions, however there is a wealth of information that can be gleaned from the 7,740 OJs that have been slabbed by SGC. An example of a good comparison would be to evaluate relative scarcity of HOFers within the set. Do not use the population report to provide an exact ranking, but instead provide a trend of most difficult and most common subjects. Likewise, as a Detroit collector I can look at population report for Stump Wiedman and Frank Scheibeck or Lady Baldwin and surmise that the 1888 Detroit OJs are more difficult than 1887 Detroits.

Keefe now has nearly 100 graded OJs (including his double player cards) and is the most common HOFer. I can say with high degree of confidence that he is more common than those with half as many graded examples (Welch, O'Rourke, Brouthers, Thompson, Clarkson, etc.). However, when looking at the four lowest HOF pops, I'd say there isn't a high enough sample size to definitively rank them (White, Robinson, Nichols, & McPhee).

An exception/risk would be if someone like John Drecker opted to send in his 50 or so Corcoran cards to all be graded. That would make the card appear far more common than it really is. I'm guilty of this to a lesser extent in that I only collect Detroits and have all my cards graded which artificially inflates the Detroit players population reports.

Here is an article I wrote back in 2005 when SGCs N172 population report was less than 1/3 of today's total yet the HOF rankings remain similar.

http://www.oldcardboard.com/eNews/20.../eNews17.htm#5

[Craig M]

Mike,

You asked how the high graded cards survived...they were put in books in between the pages to keep them protected. If you ever get an opportunity to come across some old books, turn the books upside down; fan the pages and watch the stuff fall out of the books.

Undiscovered T206's are still in old books!

Craig