Advice on Modern Rookie Cards 2000-2019

[Peter_Spaeth]

The flip sums it up pretty well -- on paper, he's a tremendous prospect.

[packs]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

The flip sums it up pretty well -- on paper, he's a tremendous prospect.

Haha no doubt but I'm hoping one paper leads to another.

[Exhibitman]

Guess it depends on your collecting goal. I just pick the card I find most appealing and try to stay away from the lotto-type cards. Probably my mistake as some of the cards I've not bothered with have skyrocketed.

In the late 70s-80s when I was buying tons of packs to bust I'd just stick the cards in a fail drawer by year and when a RC got hot, like the 1980 Henderson, I'd go into the drawer and see what I had.

[VoodooChild]

From what I've learned about dabbling in modern collecting over the past 10 years is that the serially numbered, autographed, bowman chrome (the ones that have the "1st Bowman Chrome" icon on them) are the most sought after cards generally. I do consider those pre-rookie but they are "on-card" autographs which is also a plus with most collectors. I pretty much learned to stay away from those. There are very few unknown prospects anymore. The top tier 1st Bowman Chrome, serially #'d, autograph prospect cards can run from a few hundred to a couple thousand at first release. Even the second and third tier guys will run in the hundreds.

I now focus on Topps Series 1, Series 2, or Update gold parallel cards with the "RC" logo on them. The gold parallels are serially #'d to the year of the release. So this year they are #'d to /2019 but they don't have any weird refractor/x-fractor look to them. I normally pick most guys up for under $10 but some of the hot rookies could run about $50. Here's the most recent one I picked up from the 2019 Update series:

[bcbgcbrcb]

Thank you for the great insight, Jason. Everything there sounds right on from the very short time that I have been collecting this stuff.

So you are really gambling a few hundred per on those jackpot type cards in hopes of winding up with the next Trout $10K+ card. (Of course, some will become all-stars, possible HOF’ers or solid players, in the end, I think you might do a little better than break even for these levels of players. Probably hundreds of busts for every Trout, don’t think that’s a real smart way to collect/invest, but that’s just my opinion.

[VoodooChild]

Hey Phil,

Oh no, in my post I said I learned to stay away from those 1st Bowman autographed pre-rookie cards. I never bought the low serial #'d crazy priced ones anyways. I've done ok with some "under the radar" prospects like Lindor at the time was reasonably priced for a #'d /500 one. But for every one like him, I busted on like 10 others. Now, I do buy all the Pirates still but they never have a prospect that gets those crazy prices...ha! But I do have a Gerrit Cole auto #'d/150 that I paid a couple hundred for that worked out.

So yeah that's why I now wait to buy their Topps Gold parallel RC cards because that way I'm not taking a risk on a 17 year old in low-A that probably won't ever even make the majors. And if I do want autographed cards, I like the Gypsy Queen and Topps Museum issues for those because I like the look of them.

[ToddW.]

My .02 on modern is either 1st Bowman Chrome Auto or Flagship (Base Topps). Flagship includes Series 1, Series 2 & Update and the most desirable will vary by player. Most recently update has been it (2018 and other years). This year (2019) it seems to be Series 2, as most of the first rookies are in Series 2 (Tatis/Alonso etc). Update only has Vlad (although he has a not-so SSP print in Series 2 as well), and second tier such as Huira and others. Its possible next year it could be Series 1 as that is where Yordan Alvarez will have his first "RC logo" card). Sometimes Topps Chrome may be the target, but if you focus on flagship you usually can't go wrong.

[Exhibitman]

I went Trout fishing last week and found that the 2011 product that has the RC logo and seems to carry the best bang for the buck is the Bowman family in a PSA 8. Picked up a nice one for under $100. The Topps update is through the roof. Probably has room to go given that his WAR is already 87th in history and he's only got 9 seasons. I can see him considered in the same echelon as Mays, Aaron, Mantle, etc.

I've been busting the Walgreens series 2 hanger boxes for s***s and giggles to chase the yellow variations. Haven't hit the $130-ish mini-Vlad yet but I'm having fun.

As far as investing goes, if you look over the last 20 years there are base issue cards every year that have done well but only a few that have really taken off and kept going. I am far out of the money on busting packs and boxes. It seems more of a gamble on a lotto-caliber insert than anything else.