OT/ a little help plase

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Posted By: David Smith

OK, here is what I need help on, if anybody can.

A few years ago, I think I read an article that concerned a study that somebody did (SABER?). What the person/people were studying and trying to pinpoint was when the peek years, offensively, were for most baseball players.

If I remember correctly, the study looked at something like 5,000 guys who had played in the Majors since 1900. They weeded out guys who were only in the bigs for a short time. After looking at the stats for these 5,000 or so players, they came up with the age 27 and age 28 years as being the peek years for most players.

Why I would like help on this is because I have been discussing this subject on the Cincinnati Reds chatboard. I have made it known that I do not like Adam Dunn becaue he is, in my opinion, a ONE TOOL player who is not worth what the REds are paying him and who has cost the REds Wins because he is a bad hitter and a poor Defensive Outfielder.

Well, every time I say something negative about Dunn, this one guy says to "PROVE IT".

One example of this was when I said that Dunn was one of the worst Defensive Left Fielders in the NL and that he cost the Reds at least 20 Runs a year because of it. This guy said, "PROVE IT". I then had to go and find the article where John DeWan, who writes the Fielding Bible, said that about Dunn. This person didn't want to accept it, even though I then told him that DeWan has a compnay that does nothing BUT look at fielding and that both Agents and almost half the teams in MLB USE DeWan's companys services.

Now, this guy is saying, "PROVE IT" to my assertion that this study concerning ball players peek Offensive years was actually done and that, in fact, ages 27 and 28 ARE the peek years for most players.

So, if anyone can help me with this I would greatly appreciate it.

Thanks,

David

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Posted By: quan

there are several (paid) sites that has all the fielding range for players like bill james etc...dunn is terrible defensively but he's a good batsman at major league baseball. give me a bunch of guys that hit home runs, have OBP/OPS around .400/.900 over scrappiness of sucktitude like ryan theriot, david eckstein, and juan pierre any day.

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Posted By: Tom Boblitt

Adam Dunn = 21st century Dave Kingman

.230-.240 avg Hitters
6'6" Tall both

Dunn will probably beat 500 HRs though

If so, does he go to the Hall?

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Posted By: Frank Wakefield

Yes Bob, Dunn can go to the Hall. 363 days a year, if he buys an admittance ticket.

Dunn in the Hall... I'd like to think not. But after Carter and Puckett got in, he may well sneak in there.

For years I would think about making the trip to Cooperstown. Folks aware of my baseball passion are surprised I've never been. But realistically, the quality of the inductees has reached a point where it isn't as special as it once was. At least Dunn didn't violate the gambling prohibitions.

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Posted By: Jason L

you keep saying that phrase, but I don't recall if you've ever expanded on the reasons for the negative opinions...just curious

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Posted By: Tom Boblitt

But the high water mark on home runs continues to be 500 HRs........even in the juice inflicted times we live in. He has 262 HRs @ 28 years old. Odds are very favorable he'll hit upwards of 600, so what do you do? At .247 lifetime batting average.

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Posted By: quan

not saying dunn is on track for a hof'er...but he's much better than dave kingman. kingman had a career .302 on base percentage. dunn's obp is at .381, he walks alot to compensate for his low batting average and slugs/ops about 100 points better than kingman.

off the top of my head a couple guys i liked growing up that could be compared to kingman...rob deer and sam horn! they miss alot but when they connect watch out .

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Posted By: David Smith

To all,

The point of this thread was to ask about the study I mentioned. THe one that said most Offensive players best years were at ages 27 and 28, why they said that and how they went about proving it.


Now, as far as Dunn is concerned, he is a JOKE!!.

John DeWan says he is one of the worst Left Fielders in the NL and has been for at least four years. This year, he is leading all NL Left Fielders with five Errors and that doesn't even take into consideration his lack of range and weak arm.

A couple of years ago, Bill James said that Dunn (and Richie Sexson) were "old skill" players and look where Sexson is now. I SERIOUSLY doubt Dunn will make it past age 32 as a Major League player. Heck, he is a platoon player this year, according to his stats.

Against Left Handed Pitching this year, he is hitting .179 (15 for 84) with three Home Runs and eight RBI's. Dusty Baker has already sat him a couple of times against Left Handed Pitchers and has also removed him late in the Games for a Pinch Runner or for a Defensive replacement. With C. C. Sabathia now on the Brewers, I expect Dunn will either continue to struggle and his stats get even worse or he will find himself riding the pine when the Reds face the Brewers and Sabathia is Pitching.

Home Runs.

In five of the past seven years, Dunn has hit mroe Home Runs at Home than on the Road, so, sure he hits them but big deal. Bill James says that Great Amreican Ball Park (I call it Great American Small Park) inflates Left Handed hitters power numbers by 27%. Since 2003, Dunn's Home Run numbers show that he has hit roughly 56% of his Home Runs at GASP and 44% on the Road, or about 22% more at Home than on the Road. For a guy with his power, he SHOULD be able to hit Home Runs ANYWHERE but he doesn't.

One of the reasons he DOESN'T is because he rarely swings at Strikes over the outer third of the plate. That is why he has a career Batting Average of .248 while Striking Out 165+ times a year and also being able to draw 100 Walks. If a Pitch is out there, he is most likely going to take it and HOPE that the Pitcher makes a mistake.

Most of his Home Runs this year have been on Fast Balls and have been pulled to Right Field. Dunn LIVES for belt high Fast Balls out over the middle of the plate. Anything else and he has trouble, especially Sliders, which eat him alive.

You think Dunn is like other power hitters? Nope. Since 2003, Ryan Howard and Pat Burrel have about an equal 50/50 split as far as hitting Home Runs at Home and on the Road. Lance Berkman and ALbert Pujols have hit more of thier Home Runs on the Road during those years. Only Chipper Jones is like Dunn as far as hitting a higher percentage of their Home Runs at Home instead of on the Road.

I used 2003 because that is when GASP first opened. I used those players because they are all NL players who have been on one team for the entire time period, who have been relatively healthy and have a large enough sample size of At Bats to make some type of conclusion about their stats.

Dunn regularly hits 40 or more Home Runs but he struggles to get to 100 RBI's. His career Batting Average with Runners In Scoring Position is .220. This year Dunn has 24 Home Runs and 54 RBI's and is again struggling with RISP. Compare Ryan Howard and Dunn. Both have Struck Out a lot and both have Batting Averages below .239. However, whi8le Dunn is hitting about .215 with RISP, Howard is hitting well over .300. So, even if Howard has had more opportunities, he has ALSO come through more in those opportunities. In past years, Dunn HAS had similiar opportunites as Howard but HASN'T come through.


From 2004 -2007, Reds lead-off hitters ranked in the upper third of the NL as far as getting on base. In 2007, the Reds number one and number two hitters, combined, were ranked second in all of the NL as far as getting on
base. So, again, Dunn has had guys on but he has NOT come through very often.


Walks.

This is what kills me about his fans, they say his Walks are a GOOD thing. Well, if you mean they keep him from making Outs then, yes, they are a GOOD thing. However, when you consider he has the power to hit a Home Run in every At Bat, then not swinging the bat and taking the Walk hurts the Offense.

Dunn doesn't run the bases well and has been thrown out at least twice this year while trying to score from First on a Double. Dunn wont Steal Bases so him taking a Walk doesn't really put fear into the Pitcher. Actually it helps the Pitcher because he can then throw breaking and off speed Pitches to the following batters because he wont have to worry about Dunn Stealing.

The Pitcher also doesn't have to throw over to First Base very much which means there is less chance of a throwing Error and the Pitcher can devote more concentration to getting the batter Out. Finallym, withy Dunn anchored at First Base, there is a really good chance for a Double Play.

Sure, the Walks help Dunn's On Base Percentage and OPS but so do HITS and THEY have a BETTER chance of driving in RUNS which Dunn is paid the big bucks to do and the reason why he is in the middle of the batting order to begin with. Now, if Dunn were a lead-off hitter then fine, let him get as many Walks as he can. But he is not.

That is why Albert Pujols and Manny Ramirez might have similar On Base Percentages and OPS stats as Dunn BUT they attain theirs by getting HITS. Those Hits, in turn, give them more chances to drive in Runs, something Dunn's Walks do NOT do.

So, while Dunn has a career high of 106 RBI's, Pujols and Ramirez routinely drive in more while hitting less Home Runs than Dunn.

AWARDS.

Dunn has never won a Home Run title.
Dunn has never won an RBI title.
Dunn has never won a Silver Slugger.
Dunn has never won a Gold Glove.
I think Dunn has only been on one All Star team and was not a Starter.
Dunn has never won an MVP. In only two years has he even received any votes. The two years he did receive votes, he only finished 28th and 26th, respectively. With 16 teams in the NL, that means some teams had two or more guys get MVP votes AND finish higher than Dunn.
Last year, Dunn received NO MVP votes while teammate Brandon Phillips finished 22nd in MVP voting. This, even though, Phillips had fewer Home Runs and RBI's.

Based on all of this and the fact the Reds have NEVER had a winning season while he has been on the team, I say there is NO way Dunn gets voted into the Hall of Fame.

Sure, Reggie Jackon Struck Out a lot and hit Home Runs BUT he ALSO was an MVP and played on five World Series winning teams.

Harmon Killebrew had a low Batting Average and hit a lot of Home Runs but he did so when the Pitcher's mound was higher, the balls weren't juiced and the parks weren't as small.

I would LOVE to see guys like Killebrew, Schmidt, Stargell and McCovey hit against Pitchers throwing off a lower mound. I would LOVE to see them hitting balls that are harder than the ones used when they played. Finally, I would LOVE to see them hit in a bandbox like GASP.

David

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Posted By: David Smith

Quan,

Since Home Runs were harder to hit back in the late 1960's and into the 1970's, wasn't it true that middle of the order hitters were less interested in taking Walks and more interested in swinging the bat?

With Home Runs being easier to hit today than back then, especially during the Steroid Era, doesn't it make some sense that middle of the order hitters today swing less (because they are waiting on the meat Pitch) and take the Walk more often?

I mean, Pitchers are not really scared of Dunn because, if they were, they would have given him more than the two Intentional Base on Balls that they have so far this year.

David

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Posted By: quan

david,

too long to read, but a couple points. i know dunn's number has been skewed toward the GAB for the past few years but this year his number has actually been better on the road. also did you say walking is a bad thing? that's like the saying i heard when jd drew was playing for the dodgers, him taking walks is "selfish"...i think ted williams was called that also...which is laughable.

the last time i checked dunn was #1 in MLB OF in homeruns and walks, and he's up there OBP and slugging. his defense is putrid, but he's what i would consider the opposite of a "joke" or "bad" at major league baseball. you can send him to our dodgers and we'll give you juan pierre, gold glover andruw jones, and derek lowe.

i think i also read somewhere the average distance of his hrs is at least top 3 or 5 in baseball, so they're legit hrs anywhere not just the bandboxes that the NL central teams play in.

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Posted By: Rob D.

then not swinging the bat and taking the Walk hurts the Offense.

Not even taking into account the seemingly random Capitalization, this is one of the most Ludicrous statements I've ever read on this Board.

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Posted By: D. Bergin

Dunn is a servicable power guy. Probably would be served well with a move to an American League team. I can see how he would be frustrating to be a fan of in the role he's in. Guys like him tend to make their career off of weak pitching and disappear when the pitching quality goes up.

Seeing as Jim Rice, Joe Carter, Dick Allen, Frank Howard and Andre Dawson are not yet in the HOF and played in more pitcher friendly eras, I don't think we have to worry about the weak gloved Adam Dunn getting in.

Regarding a post above. Kirby Puckett getting in so easily was always a pet peeve of mine also. I never had any problem with Gary Carter, considering the position he played.

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Posted By: JP

In regards to Adam Dunn...he broke some crazy record concerning consecutive plate appearances with a runner on third and less than two outs...he went something like 150 consectuive plate appearances like that without a sac fly. Now that is NOT a good ballplayer.

Love the Sabermetrics talk, though.

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Posted By: Rhett Yeakley

Dunn's #'s look a lot like those of a "no-brainer" HOFer Reggie Jackson.

Keep in mind Reggie is one of my least favorite ball-players of all time. He hit the 500 HR's and guaranteed himself a spot in the Hall, but he has some pretty ugly stats to go with those big power #'s.

-Rhett

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Posted By: howard

Reggie was a much better player than Dunn and a legit hall of famer. Reggie suffered from the double whammy of playing in a terrible hitters era as well as playing in one of the worst hitters parks in baseball for much of his career. When he was young he was an outstanding baserunner and a pretty good outfielder w/a strong arm. He was also one of the smarter players around.

It's surely not a perfect system but if you go baseball-reference.com and use the neutralize stats feature you can see what he might have done in an average offensive era. The numbers are fantastic and they don't even adjust for the stadiums he hit in.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/j/jacksre01.shtml

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Posted By: JP

Want a real defining stat that shows how bad Adam Dunn is? In 2006 when he had 40 homeruns and struck out 194 times, this is the list of guys who had LESS home runs, and more RBIs. Kind of a long list...

Justin Morneau
Raúl Ibañez
Álex Rodríguez
Garrett Atkins
Aramis Ramírez
David Wright
Carlos Lee
Vladimir Guerrero
Frank Thomas
Carlos Delgado
Miguel Cabrera
Matt Holliday
Jason Giambi
Paul Konerko
Ryan Zimmerman
Mark Teixeira
Jason Bay
Michael Cuddyer
Bobby Abreu
Richie Sexson
Vernon Wells
Troy Glaus
Magglio Ordóñez
Jeff Francoeur
Michael Young
Manny Ramírez
Chase Utley
J.D. Drew
Miguel Tejada
Torii Hunter
Pedro Feliz
Derek Jeter
Nick Swisher
Pat Burrell
Scott Rolen
Joe Crede
Ray Durham
Nomar Garciaparra
Brian McCann
Víctor Martínez

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Posted By: quan

joanne the amount of runs and rbi's you have is totally dependent on others around you...if they're getting on base ahead u, how they're hitting behind you etc. batting average, runs, rbi's are nice to look at, but it's an archaic way of measuring a player's worth. dunn was batting lead off for a stretch of time, so this could've been a cause of that.

you're right that dunn had an off year by his standard in '06, but his risp and risp/2outs weren't out of whack at all.

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
123 136 62 30 3 0 13 59 40 48 0 0 .221 .394 .529 .924 RISP
72 65 25 16 2 0 6 28 18 19 0 0 .246 .410 .554 .963 RISP 2outs

he's having another solid 2008, so i don't understand the knock on him at all...maybe he's taking the easy way out when there are runner(s) on base, by walking and depending on guys behind him to be clutch .

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Posted By: JP

Doris,

Hitting .221 with runners in scoring position is awful. Dunn is just about the worst hitter in baseball with runners on base, so your argument seems baseless....no pun intended.

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Posted By: Steve

In regards to Adam Dunn...he broke some crazy record concerning consecutive plate appearances with a runner on third and less than two outs...he went something like 150 consectuive plate appearances like that without a sac fly. Now that is NOT a good ballplayer.



Surely he got some of those runners in with a hit, a ground out or he walked in that situation?


Steve

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Posted By: JP

I don't know..but it was actually a total of 1,085 plate appearances without a sac fly. I'm sure there were RBI singles or home runs or walks or HBP or whatever...but still...that's pretty bad.