Did anybody else snipe tonight's pwcc?

[Casey2296]

I've always been interested in consumer neuroscience so watching a pwcc auction is fascinating to me. One of the best books I've read on the subject is "why we buy what we buy" which explores the dynamics of emotional purchase. Perfect for the baseball card game.

So I was watching tonight observing auction behavior and hoping to find one of my checklist items at good value. The nouveau rich money seems to be fascinated with +8 grading no matter what the condition of the card is.

For example: there were two 66T Mays on the block, an 8 and a 5.5, the 8 was at 2k the 5.5 was at something like 175 bucks. I'm not sure where they ended up but if I can pay a couple hundred bucks for a clean well centered #1 Mays as opposed to 2k for what? A little sharper corners? Ok.

The thing about pwcc is they roll out so many Squirrels for the new money to chase that one can pick up a great deal in the quiet space of an auction.

I picked up 5 cards tonight for what I thought were incredible deals, mostly early 60's topps, but I did pick up one pre war card that's been on my list for years at what I consider a bargain price.

I'm interested in other members thoughts on the mental/emotional dynamics of an auction like pwcc runs.
Phil Lewis

[oldeboo]

Just speaking about the hobby in general and auctions.

Using your example of the 66T Mays, you can buy that card at any price ranging from about 10 bucks up to the 8k range in a mint 9. There are people that have very deep pockets that want the best and many strictly focus on the number on the holder for registry sets. On the other end of the spectrum there are people with less money or even people that just aren't that fussy about condition. It's the beauty of this hobby I think. We all can find a place somewhere on that spectrum. Personally, I enjoy high grade cards while at the same time enjoy and appreciate beat up cards that were well loved and tell a story. Some won't go higher than a certain grade, some won't go lower for reasons such as money, preference, or whatever. Do you want the same card in a lower grade for about the price of a cup of coffee or do you want that card in a higher grade for about the price of a decent used car? It's just how it works.

As far as auctions go, they are just simply unpredictable. The 8 you are referring to sold for over 3k I believe. Just less than 2 weeks ago an 8 hammered at a little over 1.4k. Did the value really go up that much in that period? Doubt it. I didn't look at either card, but maybe you can assume the one had nicer eye appeal, better centering, etc. Then throw in the unpredictability of auctions with people throwing money around to win just to win regardless of price. Oh and shill bidding is a whole different topic, but that exists.

[Casey2296]

Great observations, Ive always been an eye appeal buyer and my centering OCD won't let me buy anything out of kilter. I come from the WC/MC so my buying habits have always leaned towards Middle class grades, and I love it. Cards that have been used are way more appealing to me.
For example, I lost out on a Goudey Nm7 Pennock because I wasn't willing to go past my bid but 2minures later I won an iconic card that I consider a steal.
Shills gonna shill and that is a separate argument but if you don't go past your price the shills don't affect you.

[philo98]

I was watching the pwcc 1960 topps clemente psa 8 and put in a snipe of around $690 which I thought was on the high side. However never needed my snipe. Someone put in with a few minutes to go a bid for $912 and then someone went on top of that at $922. Completely insane prices. Looking at the psa auction prices the highest sale in an 8 is around $710 with most in the mid to high $600s.

[toledo_mudhen]

Dont participate in most of their auctions but this one is a really nice card that I needed to fill a hole. Looking at bid history this morning - Is this normal? No one else shows any part of username?

private listing - bidders' identities protected $747.00 28 Oct 2020 at 6:49:12PM PDT --
private listing - bidders' identities protected $727.00 28 Oct 2020 at 6:49:10PM PDT --
private listing - bidders' identities protected $707.00 28 Oct 2020 at 5:02:36PM PDT --
toledo_mudhen $700.69 28 Oct 2020 at 4:33:09PM PDT --
private listing - bidders' identities protected $677.00 28 Oct 2020 at 4:56:21PM PDT --
private listing - bidders' identities protected $657.00 28 Oct 2020 at 4:30:42PM PDT --
toledo_mudhen $650.09 23 Oct 2020 at 5:31:02AM PDT --
private listing - bidders' identities protected $637.00 28 Oct 2020 at 4:30:27PM PDT --
private listing - bidders' identities protected $617.00 28 Oct 2020 at 4:30:19PM PDT --
toledo_mudhen $600.09 21 Oct 2020 at 2:22:37AM PDT --
private listing - bidders' identities protected $556.67 28 Oct 2020 at 3:47:17AM PDT --

[swarmee]

PWCC started making their auctions Private a few days ago. It was mentioned on this board as a way to cover up more fraud. You know, from those salt of the Earth sunlight loving guys up in Oregon...

[oldeboo]

It shows the same for me on all of their listings. I've never seen or noticed that anywhere else. Maybe it's some sort of back door deal with Ebay since they make them so much moolah. I don't sell on Ebay, so not sure if that's an option for all sellers.

[swarmee]

If you write anything concerning a person or company your full name needs to be in your post or obtainable from it.

Reminder for those in this thread and other threads. Most people add it to their User CP section so they don't have to type their name (or obscured name) over and over again.

[swarmee]

Originally Posted by oldeboo

It shows the same for me on all of their listings. I've never seen or noticed that anywhere else. Maybe it's some sort of back door deal with Ebay since they make them so much moolah. I don't sell on Ebay, so not sure if that's an option for all sellers.

It's an option for all sellers, normally only used by scammers or people that don't know better.

[Browns1981]

I got priced out of a few T206s I was watching and didn't want to get into a bidding war since I believe PWCC does use shill bidding.

[toledo_mudhen]

Yea - a bit concerning and I'm sure I paid up on it - highly possible/probable shill - but it is cool!

[bobbyw8469]

Cool that you showed that Robinson. I won one of the error variations on Hunt last night. They made no mention of the error, but I saw it, and I assume someone else saw it as well, because the bidding was spirited.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by toledo_mudhen

Yea - a bit concerning and I'm sure I paid up on it - highly possible/probable shill - but it is cool!

With this mentality...the shilling/shadiness will certainly continue!

[toledo_mudhen]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

With this mentality...the shilling/shadiness will certainly continue!

Guilty as charged - I think someone once said "Stuff Trumps Everything"

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by philo98

I was watching the pwcc 1960 topps clemente psa 8 and put in a snipe of around $690 which I thought was on the high side. However never needed my snipe. Someone put in with a few minutes to go a bid for $912 and then someone went on top of that at $922. Completely insane prices. Looking at the psa auction prices the highest sale in an 8 is around $710 with most in the mid to high $600s.

That's Ridiculous......... will this same card be relisted in a couple of months. Be on the lookout for it.

[Exhibitman]

Interesting OP. Bidder psychology is a fascinating field and in a legitimate auction setting the combination of the auction rules and psychology can allow for some interesting strategies. I don't see PWCC as a good test case, though, because of the rampant shilling and the resulting perception of shilling among many potential bidders. One reason I stopped compiling prices for my guides was that the Mastro-Legendary-PWCC-Probstein business models made the data misleading.

When I look at what a card costs, I take the PWCC 'sales' with a huge grain of salt; when I analyze card prices I cull the PWCC data (and usually the Probstein data) from the numbers and use the remaining sales as my data points. If you are looking at PSA cards, the auction prices function on the site makes it pretty easy to do that since the sellers are ID'd.

[dstudeba]

Originally Posted by toledo_mudhen

Guilty as charged - I think someone once said "Stuff Trumps Everything"

Is the 1955 Topps Robinson a tough card?

[Snapolit1]

I too am very interested in the dynamics of auctions. Should have studied economics. Really interesting stuff.

It seems like the driving force behind some many of these larger purchases is "gee lot of other people think this a totally hot shit card so it much be." If something is dead it must be dead for a reason; and if it's on fire getting lots of bids it must be a great great thing. Sort of the same mentality at the horse races. I had a friend who was heavy duty horse player and he never even bothered to learn the basics of reading the racing form. His strategy was always watching the board, and monitoring what others were doing. This always struck me as crazy (and not a lot of fun), but it is the same kind of decision making that drives a lot of crowd based decisions these days. If Amazon Prime says this is a great deal it must be kind of stuff. Of course the same mentality holds for stocks. People chase winners and often times chase it way too late, and the real gains may already be cooked in.

[toledo_mudhen]

Originally Posted by dstudeba

Is the 1955 Topps Robinson a tough card?

The card itself is not tough - A solid mid grade with Near Perfect Centering, Full Diamond, and absolutely killer Color and Registration - is

[dstudeba]

Originally Posted by toledo_mudhen

The card itself is not tough - A solid mid grade with Near Perfect Centering, Full Diamond, and absolutely killer Color and Registration - is

So the kind of opportunity you get once every 5 or so years, that makes sense.

[Fuddjcal]

Originally Posted by Browns1981

I got priced out of a few T206s I was watching and didn't want to get into a bidding war since I believe PWCC does use shill bidding.

yet you would still buy from them? I have an IDEA? How about you stand for something and IF you "Think" they shill bid? While you think, OTHERS "KNOW IT". Now it's all somehow hidden with Private bidding

You can't make this shit up

[Fuddjcal]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Interesting OP. Bidder psychology is a fascinating field and in a legitimate auction setting the combination of the auction rules and psychology can allow for some interesting strategies. I don't see PWCC as a good test case, though, because of the rampant shilling and the resulting perception of shilling among many potential bidders. One reason I stopped compiling prices for my guides was that the Mastro-Legendary-PWCC-Probstein business models made the data misleading.

When I look at what a card costs, I take the PWCC 'sales' with a huge grain of salt; when I analyze card prices I cull the PWCC data (and usually the Probstein data) from the numbers and use the remaining sales as my data points. If you are looking at PSA cards, the auction prices function on the site makes it pretty easy to do that since the sellers are ID'd.

As per usual, you're right on the money.

[bobbyw8469]

Originally Posted by toledo_mudhen

The card itself is not tough - A solid mid grade with Near Perfect Centering, Full Diamond, and absolutely killer Color and Registration - is

I thought partial diamond was the tough one?

[Browns1981]

Originally Posted by Fuddjcal

yet you would still buy from them? I have an IDEA? How about you stand for something and IF you "Think" they shill bid? While you think, OTHERS "KNOW IT". Now it's all somehow hidden with Private bidding

You can't make this shit up

If the price was right (comparable to past auctions excluding PWCC) then I have no issue. However they went above normal so I dropped out.

[Fuddjcal]

Originally Posted by toledo_mudhen

Yea - a bit concerning and I'm sure I paid up on it - highly possible/probable shill - but it is cool!

Not a PSA 5, LOL. It's SGC 5.5 and you got worked for $300 by the PWCC shillers:mad :

I would have sold you this for the same price.

[Snapolit1]

There are plenty of cards on PWCC that don't get a great price. Believe me, I learned first hand. The idea that all of the auctions are shilled is silly.

[NYYFan63]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

There are plenty of cards on PWCC that don't get a great price. Believe me, I learned first hand. The idea that all of the auctions are shilled is silly.

Agreed


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

There are plenty of cards on PWCC that don't get a great price. Believe me, I learned first hand. The idea that all of the auctions are shilled is silly.

There will be plenty of drunk drivers on the road this Saturday who don't barrel into a family coming home from Grandma's house. Believe me, I learned first hand. The idea that all drunk drivers kill families is silly.

The logic of the 2nd statement mirrors the logic of the first. See the problem with the logic to both statements? Just because not every PWCC auction is shilled does not excuse or minimize the fact that a significant subset of PWCC auctions are shilled. If that doesn't bother you, bid away.

[Snapolit1]

Don't see where there an fallacy buried in my argument, but you're entitled to your opinion.

Maybe PWCC is engaged in criminality. I have no idea. Perhaps some US Attorney somewhere will shed some light on that in the near future and one of our board members will rise to their defense. I have no idea. But I assume with any auction on eBay, whether I am am bidding on cards, photos, spray bottles of Lysol, or exercise equipment, that there is a very real possibility that the buyer may run the price up through his own actions (multiple eBay aliases) or with some good friends. That's why when I went on eBay last week looking for a pair of 45 pound dumb bells I did some research and decided in advance how much I wanted them and how high I would pay. And once they exceed that number I waved them goodbye.






QUOTE=Exhibitman;2030264]There will be plenty of drunk drivers on the road this Saturday who don't barrel into a family coming home from Grandma's house. Believe me, I learned first hand. The idea that all drunk drivers kill families is silly.

The logic of the 2nd statement mirrors the logic of the first. See the problem with the logic to both statements? Just because not every PWCC auction is shilled does not excuse or minimize the fact that a significant subset of PWCC auctions are shilled. If that doesn't bother you, bid away.[/QUOTE]

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by snapolit1

don't see where there an fallacy buried in my argument, but you're entitled to your opinion.

Maybe pwcc is engaged in criminality. I have no idea. Perhaps some us attorney somewhere will shed some light on that in the near future and one of our board members will rise to their defense. I have no idea. But i assume with any auction on ebay, whether i am am bidding on cards, photos, spray bottles of lysol, or exercise equipment, that there is a very real possibility that the buyer may run the price up through his own actions (multiple ebay aliases) or with some good friends. That's why when i went on ebay last week looking for a pair of 45 pound dumb bells i did some research and decided in advance how much i wanted them and how high i would pay. And once they exceed that number i waved them goodbye.



Shipping on 45 lb dumbells would be more than the cost of the dumbells!!!





Quote=exhibitman;2030264]there will be plenty of drunk drivers on the road this saturday who don't barrel into a family coming home from grandma's house. Believe me, i learned first hand. The idea that all drunk drivers kill families is silly.

The logic of the 2nd statement mirrors the logic of the first. See the problem with the logic to both statements? Just because not every pwcc auction is shilled does not excuse or minimize the fact that a significant subset of pwcc auctions are shilled. If that doesn't bother you, bid away.

[/quote]

[ullmandds]

[QUOTE=Snapolit1;2030271]Don't see where there an fallacy buried in my argument, but you're entitled to your opinion.

Maybe PWCC is engaged in criminality. I have no idea. Perhaps some US Attorney somewhere will shed some light on that in the near future and one of our board members will rise to their defense. I have no idea. But I assume with any auction on eBay, whether I am am bidding on cards, photos, spray bottles of Lysol, or exercise equipment, that there is a very real possibility that the buyer may run the price up through his own actions (multiple eBay aliases) or with some good friends. That's why when I went on eBay last week looking for a pair of 45 pound dumb bells I did some research and decided in advance how much I wanted them and how high I would pay. And once they exceed that number I waved them goodbye.

shipping on 45 lb dumbells would be more than the cost of the dumbells!!!

[Snapolit1]

Funny you should say that. . . . .I've ordered a bunch of dumbbells since the pandemic rolled in and in every case the seller simply threw each weight in a priority mail card box box with zero packing. The 35s and 45s came across the country in cardboard boxes, of course mangled, falling apart, bashed in, torn, etc. . . . . looking like they were just thrown out an airplane. Insanity. But I guess it works.






[QUOTE=ullmandds;2030287]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Don't see where there an fallacy buried in my argument, but you're entitled to your opinion.

Maybe PWCC is engaged in criminality. I have no idea. Perhaps some US Attorney somewhere will shed some light on that in the near future and one of our board members will rise to their defense. I have no idea. But I assume with any auction on eBay, whether I am am bidding on cards, photos, spray bottles of Lysol, or exercise equipment, that there is a very real possibility that the buyer may run the price up through his own actions (multiple eBay aliases) or with some good friends. That's why when I went on eBay last week looking for a pair of 45 pound dumb bells I did some research and decided in advance how much I wanted them and how high I would pay. And once they exceed that number I waved them goodbye.

shipping on 45 lb dumbells would be more than the cost of the dumbells!!!

[philo98]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

That's Ridiculous......... will this same card be relisted in a couple of months. Be on the lookout for it.

Exactly, it may come around again. That bid was actually more than the BIN price for the same grade and card and most of the BIN prices are pipe dreams.

[toledo_mudhen]

Originally Posted by bobbyw8469

I thought partial diamond was the tough one?

hmmm....and I was thinking that the "partial diamond" was basically a function of the centering...the further away from 50/50 the more the top and left diamond points get cut off?

So on your "partial diamond" would the amount of points cutoff directly coincide with the centering values?

[toledo_mudhen]

Originally Posted by Fuddjcal

Not a PSA 5, LOL. It's SGC 5.5 and you got worked for $300 by the PWCC shillers:mad :

I would have sold you this for the same price.

The SGC slab was a bonus for me (as I'm one of "those" guys) and I needed the midgrade to fill a hole in my EX-EXMT set.

If you are offering that PSA 7 for $750 - I'll take it.....

[toledo_mudhen]

Originally Posted by bobbyw8469

I thought partial diamond was the tough one?

Bobby - I stand corrected

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1955-TOPPS-...4AAOSw7xlfXZz0

Or maybe not?

[swarmee]

Partial diamond is definitely the rare one, and is a true printing plate modification, not just printing defect. There's not a ton more value added to it, because it was discovered recently. PSA doesn't even have a Set Registry for 1955 Topps Master Set, nor break out the variation on the Jackie Robinson cards. I bet the price grows once they start doing it.

[obcmac]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Don't see where there an fallacy buried in my argument, but you're entitled to your opinion.

Maybe PWCC is engaged in criminality. I have no idea. Perhaps some US Attorney somewhere will shed some light on that in the near future and one of our board members will rise to their defense. I have no idea. But I assume with any auction on eBay, whether I am am bidding on cards, photos, spray bottles of Lysol, or exercise equipment, that there is a very real possibility that the buyer may run the price up through his own actions (multiple eBay aliases) or with some good friends. That's why when I went on eBay last week looking for a pair of 45 pound dumb bells I did some research and decided in advance how much I wanted them and how high I would pay. And once they exceed that number I waved them goodbye.

QUOTE=Exhibitman;2030264]There will be plenty of drunk drivers on the road this Saturday who don't barrel into a family coming home from Grandma's house. Believe me, I learned first hand. The idea that all drunk drivers kill families is silly.

The logic of the 2nd statement mirrors the logic of the first. See the problem with the logic to both statements? Just because not every PWCC auction is shilled does not excuse or minimize the fact that a significant subset of PWCC auctions are shilled. If that doesn't bother you, bid away.

[/QUOTE]

The thing about logic is that it isn't an opinion. As Adam said, your own experience with it doesn't prove that it doesn't happen. Any reasonable person examining bidding patterns in PWCC auctions would believe that shilling is taking place. In addition to that, the only reason to hide bidding is to make it harder for people to see what is going on. My own approach to PWCC is to both snipe and bid less than I would with a better seller...though a lower level addict would probably avoid them all together.

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

There are plenty of cards on PWCC that don't get a great price. Believe me, I learned first hand. The idea that all of the auctions are shilled is silly.

I NEVER SAID THERE ARE NOT PWCC SHILLED AUCTIONS. I said they aren't ALL shilled. Which was relevant to the OP's comment that he feels he personally got a good deal on a card.

I assume a decent number of the 8 billion items listed on eBay every day are shilled. Including PWCC. And yes, despite my understanding that many of PWCC auctions are likely shilled by the consignor, his friends and family, or others, I continue to occasionally bid on a card there. Because I do research on what I want to buy. And I know what a fair price is. Same reason I continue to buy cars from dealers and nice bottles of wine from greedy steak chain restaurants. Because I do my research and make peace with how much I will pay beforehand.

Sheesh.

[perezfan]

Brent has been known to instruct his staff to shill. Just on principle... Don't do business with crooks.

To support them is to perpetuate the fraud. Even if you think you got a good deal on the card, another one will surface... guaranteed.