Judge 62nd HR ball - turned down $3 million; good idea or not?

[Belfast1933]

I'm not a memorabilia collector but I was surprised that the owner of the 62nd HR ball by Aaron Judge turned down an offer of $3 million thinking they could do better than that via auction (Goldin).

I'd love to hear others' opinions, predictions but I am surprised that the speculation is that this ball will surpass $3 million.

Would you take the over or under on $3 million at auction?

I'm definitely taking the under...

[Rad_Hazard]

Originally Posted by Belfast1933

I'm not a memorabilia collector but I was surprised that the owner of the 62nd HR ball by Aaron Judge turned down an offer of $3 million thinking they could do better than that via auction (Goldin).

I'd love to hear others' opinions, predictions but I am surprised that the speculation is that this ball will surpass $3 million.

Would you take the over or under on $3 million at auction?

I'm definitely taking the under...

I'm 100% taking the under. I would have snap took the 3 mil.

[D. Bergin]

Color me skeptical that he was offered that amount to begin with.

[mrreality68]

I would have taken the $3 mil

Not sure he will get that in auction.

Not a gamble I would have taken

[Peter_Spaeth]

Maybe it was 3 mil in crypto.

[jiw98]

I'll take the under....way under.
I got to believe that if it were my ball, I probably would have hurt something trying to shake the guys hand so quick he didn't change his mind on the $3 mil.

[packs]

If I’m not mistaken isn’t 3 mil the record and didn’t it get set when McGwire’s ball sold? That was at the height of baseball hype and it was the then all time record. Much different circumstances than this sale. Can’t imagine why it would sell for more or what the seller was thinking turning down a guaranteed 3 million dollars.

Also my friend made the comment “it might sell for more”. But when I asked him if he’d trade a winning lottery ticket for a ticket that might win he strangely declined.

[D. Bergin]

Read the article on ESPN. Guy seems like a nice enough chap. Wonder if he's getting bad advice or if he honestly thinks there might be a bidding frenzy on this ball.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...offer-declined


I'm a huge Judge fan, but didn't the ball that everybody thought was Brady's last TD ball top out at half a mill?

I know this is not comparing apples to apples, but I don't really see Judge's ball being any more significant.

Now if it is...I wouldn't have a problem with that either. If some of these manufactured rarity modern cards can sell for multi-million dollar paydays, I don't know why an actual piece of sports history can't do the same.

[Carter08]

I would think the under all day. And I’m usually wrong.

[BobbyStrawberry]

I would wager that he ends up getting more, but it would be hard for me to turn that offer down!

[JustinD]

I would be insanely impressed if it breaks 750k at auction in the current market. But I am probably wrong.

[packs]

I had a similar figure in mind. I would guess 850.

[BobC]

I'd say no and delay to hold onto the ball for at least a full year, so I could then argue it was now subject to long term capital gain federal tax rates and keep the potential tax savings. On a $3MM sale you're talking around an extra quarter million dollars or more in your pocket, just by being a little patient.

[Snapolit1]

Goldin will make damm sure it doesn't sell for an embarrassing number.

[Mark17]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Goldin will make damm sure it doesn't sell for an embarrassing number.

I'm thinking the same thing. Goldin will promote the h*** out of it.

Suppose Goldin, the seller, and the potential $3 mil buyer work a deal where the ball is offered with a $2.5 million reserve, and if the reserve isn't met, the buyer gets it for $2.5 mil.

Something like that would mean:
1. Goldin gets a ton of publicity for offering another mega item, and chance to set a new record for a baseball.
2. Seller has the chance to score huge.
3. Seller has a guaranteed $2.5 mil, worse case scenario.

The $3 mil offer people either miss out, or get it while saving a half million dollars. Or, they bid on it themselves.

[mrreality68]

Will be interesting to watch just hope you gambled right

[Shoeless Moe]

What if Judge or someone else hits 63 or more this upcoming season or the next.

With the all or nothing approach most players take today this will be surpassed, and maybe soon.

They better sell that ball quickly.

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by Shoeless Moe

What if Judge or someone else hits 63 or more this upcoming season or the next.

With the all or nothing approach most players take today this will be surpassed, and maybe soon.

They better sell that ball quickly.

Maybe lelands will resell it as "2022 hr record ball"

In all honesty, it is punching well above my weight to even think about a value. For a buyer 500k to 1 million seems fair for bragging rights. For the seller, I can only imagine greedy will make for a hungry puppy.

[jayshum]

1.2 million with a week to go

https://goldin.co/item/october-4-202...December_Elite

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by jayshum

1.2 million with a week to go

https://goldin.co/item/october-4-202...December_Elite

will be interesting to see where it goes.

A little surprised that there are not more bids in on it.

[jayshum]

No bids in the last 10 days so still at 1.2 million and ending tonight. It will be interesting to see if there is much action to get it anywhere near the $3 million that was supposedly offered.

[mrreality68]

I thought it would be higher going into today.

Guess not.

Hopefully for the sellers sake it has a strong day otherwise bad choice

But it is not looking good to hit the $3 mill he would have gotten

[Shoeless Moe]

Ouch!

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by Shoeless Moe

Ouch!

Big ouch

Only 1 more bid to bring it to $1.5 mill with BP and a lot less then the alleged offer

Either way still nice money for the seller but missed out on more

[Shoeless Moe]

I don't think it was alleged, it was an offer of 3 million. His lawyer was quoted on that, and his lawyer said they were in negotiations with someone else for a higher amount than the 3 million, but the buyer backed out and said they would just be a bidder on it at auction. Guessing that probably is the winner of it.


Edited to say: unless his lawyer was blowing smoke, but lawyers never lie do they?

[jayshum]

Oh well. Seller gambled and lost.

[cesarcap]

Guess he won't be getting NYY season tix now....

[packs]

So he was offered 3 mil and will now walk away will less than 1 mil after taxes. Way to go guy. Maybe he has some stock picks he wouldn’t mind sharing too.

[mrreality68]

But think of all the free press he got. Lol

Probably start a you tube channel on modern collectibles

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

Maybe lelands will resell it as "2022 hr record ball"

In all honesty, it is punching well above my weight to even think about a value. For a buyer 500k to 1 million seems fair for bragging rights. For the seller, I can only imagine greedy will make for a hungry puppy.

The greed factor is awfully high.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

The greed factor is awfully high.

Yes it was and he made good money just not as much as he hoped.

But then as mentioned before the TAXES

so maybe better he sold for less so he pays less taxes on it

[PATCO]

I would think the Goldin vig of perhaps 15%, plus the Fed Tax implications will find the owner a bit disappointed. I think a private sale would have been the way to go. Maybe Goldin will ensure the min bid is $3m, seems like a very limited market to me.

Greed is a powerful thing, and it appears this is the owner's mindset. I could easily think of a lot of sweet things to have with just $1m in my pocket.

[packs]

This was a pretty high profile item. I'd be surprised if the AH charged any commission on it. Just having the ball in the auction got them a lot of free advertising.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by packs

This was a pretty high profile item. I'd be surprised if the AH charged any commission on it. Just having the ball in the auction got them a lot of free advertising.

I am sure the advertising is nice and I am sure they waived the seller commission. More likely they also added between 8% and 10% of the BP back to the seller.

But regardless the seller took a gamble and lost on what could have been

[D. Bergin]

Looks like he picked the wrong curtain/suitcase/upside down sippy cup




Still, for what he paid for that ball......I think he did pretty good.