OT: Looking for Input on Card Doctoring Trends

[marzoumanian]

Greetings. I'm working on a book about Mastro Auctions and will be including a chapter on card doctoring trends. I'm interested in your opinions.
First, do the cards id'ed as doctored by Blowout Cards fall into the vintage or modern (after 1980) category? Have any studies been done on this trend?
Second, in the past couple of years have the number of cards id'ed as doctored gone up, down, or sideways? Just how big IS this problem?
Third, is there any way to stop the card doctors cold or will this be a problem for the foreseeable future?
Thanks for any insights you can provide. I appreciate your time. Peace and best of health.

[Seven]

Originally Posted by marzoumanian

Greetings. I'm working on a book about Mastro Auctions and will be including a chapter on card doctoring trends. I'm interested in your opinions.
First, do the cards id'ed as doctored by Blowout Cards fall into the vintage or modern (after 1980) category? Have any studies been done on this trend?
Second, in the past couple of years have the number of cards id'ed as doctored gone up, down, or sideways? Just how big IS this problem?
Third, is there any way to stop the card doctors cold or will this be a problem for the foreseeable future?
Thanks for any insights you can provide. I appreciate your time. Peace and best of health.

I think in most cases the cards that were being identified by Blowout trended towards Vintage but there were a number of cards that were post 1980 as well. I don't think any studies have been done, but Blowout might be a better place to check.

I think it's a significant problem, many of the trimmed vintage cards are slabbed in genuine slabs and with all the new money entering the hobby, many people are none the wiser.

[Peter_Spaeth]

https://www.tiffanycards.com/buyer-beware

[Peter_Spaeth]

The only realistic partial (and very partial) solution is if law enforcement comes down very hard on some high profile people. Otherwise, it's just going to continue unchecked.

[Johnny630]

No signs of stopping unless the new AI technology can identify, that’s the only hope I have that could slow it.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

The only realistic partial (and very partial) solution is if law enforcement comes down very hard on some high profile people. Otherwise, it's just going to continue unchecked.

+1 agreed. However, sadly I do not see this happening.

Or if lawsuits get filed and grading companies as well as individuals get hit with fines and penalties. But until someone’s wallet get hurt I do not see it stopping

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

+1 agreed. However, sadly I do not see this happening.

Or if lawsuits get filed and grading companies as well as individuals get hit with fines and penalties. But until someone’s wallet get hurt I do not see it stopping

I see very little likelihood of civil lawsuits having any impact at all here. My only hope is with criminal enforcement.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I see very little likelihood of civil lawsuits having any impact at all here. My only hope is with criminal enforcement.

Peter I agree with you on that also.

[Eric72]

In my opinion, the sale/trade of doctored cards is an issue in both the modern and vintage markets. Third party grading companies have (unfortunately) encapsulated many of these altered examples. The number of doctored cards with numerical TPG grades is much more likely to increase over time.

By way of example, consider a card trimmed along one edge. The card being in a "slab" would severely hinder one's ability to examine the edges and look for relative oxidation, striation patterns, etc. Looking only at the front & back would be an incomplete, insufficient way to inspect the card.

Since this hypothetical example would likely sell for more money in its TPG holder, there is little incentive for the average collector/investor/flipper to remove it. Chances are, it would remain "slabbed" and the card doctor card butcher would have "gotten away with" another alteration.

This is, of course, just one of innumerable possible scenarios. My main point (to answer one of your questions) is that this is not confined to just modern or just vintage. It's not even limited to just sports cards. The problem is pervasive and pernicious.

[swarmee]

Modern cards normally have a different type of alteration. Many have been buffed with car wax (normally to remove scratches) that may degrade their surfaces over time.

The number of cards being exposed now is much less, but that may not be attributable to the number of cards still being altered. Some people who have closed their companies as a result of their being found out as card alterers have started selling in different locations (Dave Thorn Small Traditions >> PWCC >> Probstein). So they're less likely to be found since they're hiding in a bigger haystack.

BODA are volunteers, so their motivation and time may be different. Many of the alterations they've found recently have been of the patch swapping/foil adding/serial number adding kind. Basically making a printer's scrap into a 1/1 card and getting it past the TPGs or making a 1991 Topps into a Desert Shield and getting it slabbed.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by swarmee

Modern cards normally have a different type of alteration. Many have been buffed with car wax (normally to remove scratches) that may degrade their surfaces over time.

The number of cards being exposed now is much less, but that may not be attributable to the number of cards still being altered. Some people who have closed their companies as a result of their being found out as card alterers have started selling in different locations (Dave Thorn Small Traditions >> PWCC >> Probstein). So they're less likely to be found since they're hiding in a bigger haystack.

BODA are volunteers, so their motivation and time may be different. Many of the alterations they've found recently have been of the patch swapping/foil adding/serial number adding kind. Basically making a printer's scrap into a 1/1 card and getting it past the TPGs or making a 1991 Topps into a Desert Shield and getting it slabbed.

I strongly suspect a lot of modern are still being microtrimmed to get those 10s.

[Snowman]

Beware of selection bias when it comes to percentages of alterations by vintage vs modern since you can't really identify a "properly" trimmed card without having before and after photos (hence they're getting through grading, and no, a roller doesn't solve the problem). Vintage cards "worth trimming" are much more likely to have already been graded and sold before than modern cards, so there will be a selection bias in terms of what cards get discovered by BODA since their only way of identifying these is by looking up card scans online from prior sales. But in terms of the unknowable true number of trimmed cards in slabs that exist today? I would wager good money that the vast majority are actually modern cards and that they'll never get found out.

[JollyElm]

There is a machine used by the TPGs (the name escapes me, but it was shown in an SGC walk-through Youtube video) that is basically a very effective black light. When a card is put inside and the 'lights' are turned on, it reveals everything - any unseen wrinkles, creases, recolored areas, etc. - so if there are any cards doctored with a paint brush (for lack of a better term) getting anything other than "ALTERED" on the label by a TPG using this machine, you have to strongly consider whether or not they are directly in on the scam.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

We recently sent about a half dozen slabbed cards that were consigned back to PSA because we suspected trimming. They were all sent back as OK. I am still not convinced and will be noting that in the descriptions. Of course I'm sure whoever gets them will fail to pass that information along in future sales, but what else can ya do?

[swarmee]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I strongly suspect a lot of modern are still being microtrimmed to get those 10s.

Completely agree, but those are far less likely to be "proven" with before/after pictures because slight differences in base cards (not serial numbered or autographed) are nearly impossible to spot from web imagery. Like the 1993 Jeter SPs are only "likely" to be altered since they received 9/10s after being submitted by known trimmers. Very hard to figure out which card it was before it was trimmed and have proof.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

We recently sent about a half dozen slabbed cards that were consigned back to PSA because we suspected trimming. They were all sent back as OK. I am still not convinced and will be noting that in the descriptions. Of course I'm sure whoever gets them will fail to pass that information along in future sales, but what else can ya do?

If they can OK a blatantly altered 48L Jackie with clear before photos, they can OK yours.

[marzoumanian]

I want to thank everyone who took the time to reply to my post. I appreciate your insights and combined decades of card knowledge. Excellent points made by all and I will incorporate them in my writings. Stay healthy and continue to wear a mask!

[glynparson]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Beware of selection bias when it comes to percentages of alterations by vintage vs modern since you can't really identify a "properly" trimmed card without having before and after photos (hence they're getting through grading, and no, a roller doesn't solve the problem). Vintage cards "worth trimming" are much more likely to have already been graded and sold before than modern cards, so there will be a selection bias in terms of what cards get discovered by BODA since their only way of identifying these is by looking up card scans online from prior sales. But in terms of the unknowable true number of trimmed cards in slabs that exist today? I would wager good money that the vast majority are actually modern cards and that they'll never get found out.

I would absolutely agree with this assessment.