CAN WE SOLVE THIS HOBBY (SPORTS CARD) CRISIS? Video and Discussion

[parkplace33]

I watched an excellent podcast last night about the state of the hobby (warning, it is 31 minutes long)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2cevkO8bZVM

While the focus of this video is modern, I do think they are some takeaways for vintage as well. I found the video and the comments section interesting.

My take on it is that it will be interesting to see how the hobby strives post the last 3 years. An issue have seen recently is a "disinterested" collector. Some friends who have been in the hobby a while and some who have recently joined are taking a pause on buying and collecting. Could be a variety of reasons, but it is not like it was a few years ago. Maybe this will pick back up next year.

[BKaufmann14]

I am not really sure what "crisis" you are talking about. It is a hobby after all. Everyone has their own way of collecting and people go in phases with it. I am on the younger side (especially for pre-war), and I have adjusted to prices by offsetting, whether people like it or not. Not sure the term "disinterested" applies to the vast majority. Seems like a small sample size imo.. but maybe this is more for modern.

-Times change, markets change, collecting goals and needs change, i would not label this as some crisis, maybe a bump in the road for some but overall i tend to think the hobby is still lightyears ahead of where it was 3-5 years ago.

[ullmandds]

Yes how about looking at the hobby before the pandemic set in. A time when junk wax was still junk wax. Look ahead to a few years when what is currently being produced will be the new junk wax!!

[raulus]

For those of us too lazy or too busy to spend 30+ mins on the video, could you boil down the gist for us?

Is it primarily that prices are crazy high?

Or is it that the modern market rose so much, and then has fallen so much?

Or something else entirely?

I agree that crisis seems like a pretty strong word to use, particularly in light of the stakes being that this is a hobby for a small section of the population, with hopefully no one spending more than they can afford on their hobby.

[Leon]

The only crisis is me not being able to afford any great cards anymore.
.

[phillyfan24]

Originally Posted by Leon

The only crisis is me not being able to afford any great cards anymore.
.

Ditto!

[parkplace33]

For those who didn't want to watch the video (I do recommend it), here is the premise/highlights:

What is the pulse of the hobby right now?

Lower excitement of the hobby.

Why are collectors selling? Some need money and some want to get out of the hobby "while they can."

Status of dealers, how are they feeling?

General malaise in the hobby.

Many pressures on the card market right now.

Sellers are outnumbering buyers at higher levels.

For buyers, should they buy now or wait 6 months when things will be cheaper?

Card shops that opened in the last few years are closing up this year.

Are you currently buying?

People bought high and won't sell low.

Will modern collectors move into vintage? It takes work for young collectors to research older players.

[brob28]

Originally Posted by Leon

The only crisis is me not being able to afford any great cards anymore.
.

Had to laugh when I saw this - I'm suffering through the same issue Leon.

[Cubs Fan]

Originally Posted by Leon

The only crisis is me not being able to afford any great cards anymore.
.

I totally agree with you Leon. I still lose most anything I try to go after so, not seeing much of a crisis at this point as it pertains to the vintage stuff most all of use love.

[Johnny630]

Modern and Ultra Modern are in trouble, big trouble. Quality blue chip kind of like that post the other day vintage zero signs of trouble only clear skies ahead... up up and away territory.

[ullmandds]

I Perused the video it is strictly concerning the modern card market which I agree is in trouble. Anyone who got into the stock market, the crypto market, the NFT market, the sports collectibles hobby, when everything was only going up up up and was only concerned about the money likely did not do well.

If anything this post belongs in a different area of the site…imho.

[Tomi]

The modern market has idiots paying 6 figures for a player in their rookie year. Modern has crashed and vintage and pre war continue to go up. No complaints here. I left modern in the 90's for vintage and it was the best hobby decision. I'm sure as time goes by many of these modern collectors will wake up and move away from modern to vintage and pre war.

[Peter_Spaeth]

What crisis? Pushers, flippers, manipulators, influencers, certain AHs were able to artificially inflate the market for a while on modern. Of course it had to come back to earth.

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Modern and Ultra Modern are in trouble, big trouble. Quality blue chip kind of like that post the other day vintage zero signs of trouble only clear skies ahead... up up and away territory.

Sorry, but this is a wrong-headed take. If there are no modern collectors anymore, who is your estate going to sell your cards to?

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[BioCRN]

While the "hobby" and the "market" are closely interconnected, those that care more about the market have seen the peak and are looking their exit (or repositioning, such as high-end desired vintage).

I've sold a lot more than I've bought the past 2 years because of elevated prices. I do plan on buying more when the hobby cools off.

I'm not in the market for high-end desired vintage, and that may never cool off. I don't know, it's beyond my scope. I'm in the $100s/1000s camp, not the $10s-100s thousands camp.

That new stuff seems to be in trouble...and there's a lot "market" people into the new stuff.

I don't know how long the "affordable" $80-$120 hobby box with a "relic or auto hit" can last. Return on investment vs the desire to gamble is getting sketchy with the odds and throwing a few more border color parallels with stamped numbers are diluting things. The higher priced hobby boxes aren't keeping pace, either.

[Bcwcardz]

To be honest, in 2052 I think a card show will be how a stamp show and collecting is today.


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[Kutcher55]

Modern is a cesspool compared to vintage. It’s no surprise to see it implode the way it has in terms of prices. Also the scammer quotient is off the charts with modern, ergo the “cesspool” comment. If you ever check out a Facebook scammer page, in addition to being an incredibly depressing scene, a high % of the posts relate to modern cards not to mention people not paying for “razzes” whatever the hell those things are.

That YouTube station has some good content on occasion. However they get people to click with headlines of pending disaster, economic collapse, sell everything etc. It’s the same strategy employed by many news outlets. Red ticker tape. BREAKING NEWS, that sort of thing. If it’s in all caps then it’s especially important.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Kutcher55

If you ever check out a Facebook scammer page, in addition to being an incredibly depressing scene, a high % of the posts relate to modern cards not to mention people not paying for “razzes” whatever the hell those things are.

Add me to the list of those with no clue what "Razzes" are!

[BobC]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

Add me to the list of those with no clue what "Razzes" are!

I believe they are a new slang term for card "breaks", which was the original slang term they came up with to describe what they were doing.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by BobC

I believe they are a new slang term for card "breaks", which was the original slang term they came up with to describe what they were doing.

Thanks, Bob - what was wrong with the term "break" I wonder?

[Lordstan]

Breaks refers to the process of breaking open unopened card product. The process is a person/number of persons buys all the cards of a certain team while the seller person "breaks" open a box or case of cards. So the buyer is gambling that there will be some expensive cards in whatever is being broken open.
A razz, razzle, waffle, and raffle are all slang for the same thing. A seller sells a raffle slot to win an item. I have seen cards, autos, and memorabilia items all sold this way. So a seller will list something like "10 spots @$30". Buyers put their name on the list by which specific number they want. Once all slots are full, everyone will pay and then an online random number raffle generator is used to choose a winner. Over the past couple years, people would run them before everyone paid, but recently there have been a lot of non payers, so now, if anyone doesn't not pay they raffle does not go forward.
These 2 things seem to be mostly Facebook driven, with some breaks happening on Instagram as well.
I think the new stuff is in trouble because a lot of the new people to the hobby were internet content creators who drummed up followings by creating excitement. Buying and holding vintage stuff is not exciting in an immediate sense for many. They want the immediate gratification of the flip. Buy it today, wait for the player to have a good game or two, and flip for a profit. It was all about the adrenaline rush at a time when boredom was an issue. Now that real life is starting to return, the rush is no longer as needed. Now that there are less buyers, the flipper/investor has far fewer people to flip to.

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[lowpopper]

but really tho...just keep buying

[Exhibitman]

How are breaks not illegal lotteries?

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

How are breaks not illegal lotteries?

Because everyone will get something. Not a lottery.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by parkplace33

Because everyone will get something. Not a lottery.

I was going to say that too. I really don’t know why it’s not legally a lottery, but here are four potential reasons:

1. Everyone wins. Some win more than others, but everyone gets something, so it’s a genuine quid pro quo transaction

2. The winners are not getting cash. They are getting a piece of personality. Maybe lotteries are limited to cash

3. The break pool may be too small. Is it a lottery if only 20-30 people participate

4. The “payout” is not derived by the the number of people paying in. For example, the more people who buy lottery tickets, the more the winning pot. That is not the case here, as the winning pot is finite and fixed before the event begins

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by parkplace33

Because everyone will get something. Not a lottery.

This is very incorrect, as is what else was being stated on this.

In actuality, you are more likely to receive nothing in a high end break. The breaks are seldom cases, and even those are often nothing. A box of high end can contain less than 10 cards, those breaks are most often sold by player…the entire set list. A set can contain 100 players or more, though often repeated. There is no chance of everyone receiving a pull.

I have honestly participated in maybe 4-5 of these on a lark for specific rookies and can state I am 0-5 on receiving anything.

Guaranteed breaks cost quite a bit and are done by card position in the pack per lottery. These are done for vintage pack breaks also. Those can be hundreds for a card position, while player breaks tend to be less than 20 bucks.

[Lordstan]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

How are breaks not illegal lotteries?

My only thought is this. In a lottery there is a chance you could lose and get nothing. In a break, you are purchasing all the cards of a specific team in that box/case/whatever. There is no question that you will get what you purchased. The question is what specific cards will be in what you purchased.

Not sure if that somehow skirts around the legal definition of a lottery or not. While I am not an attorney, I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

lolz

There is a backstory with this particular card though that I think likely had an effect on its drop in value. I recall reading that someone from PSA made it known that they rejected the card for trimming. Also, I think the BGS black label scandal likely played a role as well. Basically, big pocket investors lost confidence in this particular copy of this card.

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

IMO the whole BGS Black Label thing is rather foolish to begin with, and, if an expose on Blowout is to be believed, subject to favoritism if not outright corruption. Textbook example of buying the flip. Nothing wrong with that until you lose a million on it.

I'm generally dismissive of a lot of the accusations that get thrown around in this hobby, but I'm as certain as I could possibly be that the BGS Black Label scandal is an actual conspiracy, not just a theory. The percentage of black label cards going to one guy is simply far too improbable. Add in the fact that he just so happens to be a former employee... ya, LOL. He absolutely received favorable grades. This is not someone with an "eagle eye". You could crack out and resubmit 100 BGS 10 black labels and you'd probably only get 5 back, if you're lucky. It's all a complete joke. No card is truly perfect. I could find a flaw on every single card I've ever looked at.