Goldschmidt -- HOF chances?

[G1911]

A serious candidate, but not likely. He’s about to turn 35, and the Hall has been tough for 1B in the modern era. Outside of this year, he led the league in some major categories in 2013 in a season which would not normally lead the league (36 homers to win a HR crown is very low these days). Leading the league in walks in 2016 is his only other league lead. His similarity scores are bad. His homer totals are not very high for a 1B candidate. He has 1,700 hits as an on base and contact guy. This year will help a lot but he needs to perform very well through his age 38 season to measure up.

[Peter_Spaeth]

On my thread a few months back I had rated him unlikely but I think I would now say possible.
https://www.net54baseball.com/showth...ht=goldschmidt

[JustinD]

I would say that the hall of fame jumped the shark to the hall of very good years ago. He most certainly has a shot.

[packs]

If he does manage to grind out a triple crown I’d say he moves into lock territory. But if he doesn’t I think he’s still on the fence even with the MVP.

[Mike D.]

What makes a HOF 1st Basemen?

The average career WAR* of the 23 Hall of Fame first basemen is 65.5, although that average includes Lou Gehrig’s 113.7, so the medium is slightly lower.

Goldschmidt is at 57.8 WAR right now, which could bump up a bit by season end.

7.7 WAR in a 2-3 more seasons doesn't sound unreasonable, especially at his current production levels.

He's already got more career WAR than 10 HOF 1B, including Terry, Greenberg, Sisler, Perez, and Cepeda.

* - if it matters, I'm using BB-R WAR here.

[Mike D.]

Goldschmidt is one of several Active Major League Hitters Who We Think Are On The Baseball Hall Of Fame Path.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Trout??

Oh I see this is non locks got it. Barring catastrophic injury I would rank Harper over Betts, I believe a lot of Betts' WAR is from defense and who cares lol. Harper is still not even 30, to me that's amazing.