T206 Set...Minus the Big Four, and other Subsets...Will values keep climbing?

[asphaltman]

I started a little over a year ago putting together a low grade T206 set...I'm about 40% there. And I'm amazed at how much money even in low grade it has taken me to this point to get to this place. Especially when I look back at what some very large lots or near sets were going for 10+ years ago. Granted we were in an economic slump then compared to now. But it seems the values of everything has really sky rocketed the last few years...is the thought that is really going to continue or will this level off and maybe even values drop a little in the next couple years making completing this set a bit easier?

I'm not surprised at the rare backs....Drum, Broad Leaf, Uzit, etc. But what used to be the very affordable Cycles, American Beauty's Tolstoi's....suddenly aren't as affordable either.

Even putting together the Southern Leaguer set 48, seems astronomical in price compared to what you could have picked one up for even five years ago...

Then it makes me sick thinking about what a Cobb could be had for a few years ago...

Can anyone put a number on what they think you would need to spend to put together set of 520 today in 1-3 grade condition?

[Rhotchkiss]

According to VCP, a solely Piedmont and sweet cap 520 set, with all cards in SGC 2, would cost around $100k. Assume 30% error of margin for unique sales and/or older comps and figure $70k-$130k, with much of the value tied up in how nice are the Cobbs, Young’s, Wajos, Mattys, Lajoies, Speaker, HOF portraits, etc.

Will values keep going up? Over the short term, no clue. Over the long term, I believe yes- I have seen values go up steadily over almost 40 years of collecting, they aren’t making any more, and t206 is the most famous and collectible set out there - it’s the monster!

[trambo]

Great question! I'm working on set #2 as an all PSA 2 set and I have the value pegged currently in the $140k ish range for a 520. that number 2 years ago when I started was likely around $95k+/-.

As for prices in the future, it likely depends on the economy and the number of people chasing the Monster. This is purely anecdotal but it seems like the bigger ticket cards are pulling back a hair (no, the sky's not falling) and collectors are being very picky with the condition of the card (nice 2 sells for more than a lesser 2 sort of thing). I don't think we'll see a crazy drop to 2018 or before pricing unfortunately but from some of the posts I've seen here over the past few years, the sky will likely fall at some point (according to them).

It will be interesting to see and keep on enjoying the journey! Getting sets like this one completed is fun, frustrating, rewarding and will likely make many people crazy! Glad I have my main set largely complete but also miss the chase on both this and t205. Upgrades seem to be fewer and farther between. Good luck!!

[parkerj33]

I have been in this market quite a bit as a seller and buyer over the last 2 years. I believe a low grade (think 1-1.5) raw set will firmly set you back in the 90k range now. I agree some prices have pulled back (I think peak for general non-fancy cards was late last summer). Condition rarities or back rarities will continue to rise. the killer rise will continue to be the real short prints: demmit/ohara stl, lundgren chi, and elberfeld port wash. lundgren and elberfeld BEATERS are 1.5k..... I think southern leaguers have been softer lately, although ryan violat and shags will still set you back uncomfortably.

Goldin just auctioned off a full 520 set last week and it was thoroughly psa 1 caliber throughout....$100k hammer.

[asphaltman]

Originally Posted by parkerj33

Goldin just auctioned off a full 520 set last week and it was thoroughly psa 1 caliber throughout....$100k hammer.

I didn't see this auction...interesting, will have to take a look.

[FrankWakefield]

520 cards

that would be a card a week for ten years...

Keep in mind that if, in a single purchase, you buy multiple cards from the same seller, then you'll save a few dollars on shipping, compared to 520 single card purchases...

Obviously, on a week when you buy a common card that's ok... that would be a typical acquisition, but you need to have set some dollars aside, because many of the cards you'll be getting will case more than that ok common card.

So to get this done in 10 years, it'd take about $175 a week to get there.

15 years will be about $120 a week. (I've added a few dollars extra because the cards are likely to have increased in price more over a 15 year span as compared to 10 years.

And allocating $100 a week will get you close to a finish line in 17 to 18 years. And it'll take patience.

No one ever said that slaying a monster was easy.


If you decide that one Cobb card is enough instead of 'needing' all 4, then you shorten the journey by a couple of years. Or deciding you don't have to have Demmitt and O'Hara will save you time and money.

However long it does take; it'll take even longer if you start the journey three years from now, instead of starting by the end of this month. And knowing this from experience... starting, then stopping and selling, then restarting, is a really long way of doing it.

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by FrankWakefield

520 cards

that would be a card a week for ten years...

Keep in mind that if, in a single purchase, you buy multiple cards from the same seller, then you'll save a few dollars on shipping, compared to 520 single card purchases...

Obviously, on a week when you buy a common card that's ok... that would be a typical acquisition, but you need to have set some dollars aside, because many of the cards you'll be getting will case more than that ok common card.

So to get this done in 10 years, it'd take about $175 a week to get there.

15 years will be about $120 a week. (I've added a few dollars extra because the cards are likely to have increased in price more over a 15 year span as compared to 10 years.

And allocating $100 a week will get you close to a finish line in 17 to 18 years. And it'll take patience.

No one ever said that slaying a monster was easy.


If you decide that one Cobb card is enough instead of 'needing' all 4, then you shorten the journey by a couple of years. Or deciding you don't have to have Demmitt and O'Hara will save you time and money.

However long it does take; it'll take even longer if you start the journey three years from now, instead of starting by the end of this month. And knowing this from experience... starting, then stopping and selling, then restarting, is a really long way of doing it.

Well said Frank.

[MR RAREBACK]

If only auction houses did 15 year loans

[MVSNYC]

"Will values keep going up? Over the short term, no clue. Over the long term, I believe yes- I have seen values go up steadily over almost 40 years of collecting, they aren’t making any more, and t206 is the most famous and collectible set out there - it’s the monster!"

I agree with Ryan. No one has a crystal ball, but like Ryan, I have been collecting T206 for almost 4 decades, and I've only ever seen them go up in value.

The wise Scott Levy once told me..."Try to collect the best players you can, from the best sets you can, in the best condition you can." I think in the case of T206 we can add to that..."with the rarest backs you can."

[Exhibitman]

Don't forget inflation. The real question is whether prices will rise faster than the rate of inflation over the long haul. Cumulative inflation over the last 25 years has been nearly 90%; a card had to just about double in price just to maintain its value. If a card was $20 in 1997 I would expect it to cost at least $40 today.

[MVSNYC]

Adam, agreed, good conversation.

Some rough data, using rare backs as examples...

In 1997 a lower grade Drum was probably $500 (or less)...today you can't buy one for less than $5,000, and depending on player and condition they can easily sky-rocket from there. Uzit- $300-400 in 1997...today $4,000+. Common Hindus, maybe $100-150 in 1997. I was outbid on one the other night for $1,500.

I'd estimate that most rare backs are around 10x today versus where they were 25 years ago.

[Cory]

I had it estimated between 50k and 100k, and I'm over 90% of the way card wise but maybe 60-70%% cost wise. I think 100k is more realistic. The top 20 cards will likely be half the cost depending on condition and flaws you can live with. 4 Cobbs, 3 Youngs, 3 Mattys, 2 Wajos, 3 Naps, Speaker, Lundgren Chi, Demmit and O'Hara and Elberfeld Wash.

If you don't enjoy the hunt I think buying a set already completed or near completed is likely the most economical way. They seem to trade at a discount rather than premium.

[Vintage Vern]

Honest question, how many will continue to collect vintage especially with the prices now? I don't know a ton of people collecting especially younger folks, but I know very few that collect pre war, and most that do collect now, have to have a ton of extra cash to just waste. Some day the demand won't be nearly as strong as it is now. I'd imagine most of the high dollar cards/sets are held by people that got them many moons ago at a much more manageable price. Just like collector cars its more about generational interest. Not many 20 or 30 year olds want street rods or muscle cars, and some that do probably can't afford them. The people that have them want more than most can afford so the demand vs value isn't there. They would rather spend 30 grand on a tuner then 60 or 125 grand on something from the 30's - 70's. At some point it will be a very small group that values the cards many think will never lose value. Most of those will be the rich. No one else can really play, so once they (the wealthy) don't care I don't see much future. How many things in life did you think or feel would be forever that are all but forgotten? I don't see cards any different.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Vintage Vern

Honest question, how many will continue to collect vintage especially with the prices now? I don't know a ton of people collecting especially younger folks, but I know very few that collect pre war, and most that do collect now, have to have a ton of extra cash to just waste. Some day the demand won't be nearly as strong as it is now. I'd imagine most of the high dollar cards/sets are held by people that got them many moons ago at a much more manageable price. Just like collector cars its more about generational interest. Not many 20 or 30 year olds want street rods or muscle cars, and some that do probably can't afford them. The people that have them want more than most can afford so the demand vs value isn't there. They would rather spend 30 grand on a tuner then 60 or 125 grand on something from the 30's - 70's. At some point it will be a very small group that values the cards many think will never lose value. Most of those will be the rich. No one else can really play, so once they (the wealthy) don't care I don't see much future. How many things in life did you think or feel would be forever that are all but forgotten? I don't see cards any different.

Welcome to the doom and gloom club, Vern. You’ll find it’s a lonely club around these parts. Only trouble is the market keeps disproving our hypothesis!

[Centauri]

I think when it comes to the next generation…the modern stuff is only gaining in popularity. And as long as people collect baseball cards, the T206 will always be out there as this bright and mysterious light, beckoning those who want to reach for the sky.

[Metsfan0507]

This is something I'm struggling with as a relatively young (mid 30s) collector just getting into pre-war vintage. Do I buy now because prices will only continue to rise, or wait for prices to drop as older collectors start liquidating their collection (or their heirs do it for them). People in their 20s and 30s now for the most part can't really afford to drop thousands on Cobbs, Youngs, etc while also trying to buy houses and start families, so are they going to suddenly start buying (and spending big $) when they have more $ in their 50s and 60s? I imagine most of the $ being spent now is people in their 50s and 60s that started collecting in their 20s and 30s when costs weren't prohibitive, so they were hooked from an early age. Will the hobby continue to hook people who can only afford to enter the hobby at a much later age? Without new younger buyers, at some point prices have to drop to the point that it does attract new younger buyers.

Originally Posted by Vintage Vern

Honest question, how many will continue to collect vintage especially with the prices now? I don't know a ton of people collecting especially younger folks, but I know very few that collect pre war, and most that do collect now, have to have a ton of extra cash to just waste. Some day the demand won't be nearly as strong as it is now. I'd imagine most of the high dollar cards/sets are held by people that got them many moons ago at a much more manageable price. Just like collector cars its more about generational interest. Not many 20 or 30 year olds want street rods or muscle cars, and some that do probably can't afford them. The people that have them want more than most can afford so the demand vs value isn't there. They would rather spend 30 grand on a tuner then 60 or 125 grand on something from the 30's - 70's. At some point it will be a very small group that values the cards many think will never lose value. Most of those will be the rich. No one else can really play, so once they (the wealthy) don't care I don't see much future. How many things in life did you think or feel would be forever that are all but forgotten? I don't see cards any different.

[asphaltman]

Originally Posted by Metsfan0507

This is something I'm struggling with as a relatively young (mid 30s) collector just getting into pre-war vintage. Do I buy now because prices will only continue to rise, or wait for prices to drop as older collectors start liquidating their collection (or their heirs do it for them). People in their 20s and 30s now for the most part can't really afford to drop thousands on Cobbs, Youngs, etc while also trying to buy houses and start families, so are they going to suddenly start buying (and spending big $) when they have more $ in their 50s and 60s? I imagine most of the $ being spent now is people in their 50s and 60s that started collecting in their 20s and 30s when costs weren't prohibitive, so they were hooked from an early age. Will the hobby continue to hook people who can only afford to enter the hobby at a much later age? Without new younger buyers, at some point prices have to drop to the point that it does attract new younger buyers.

This was also my same argument 25 years ago when I got into the hobby in my 20's. 25 years later...the next generation has just continued to push prices...We are 110 years past T206....hard to think everything relies on just the baby boomer generation having maxed this set out...but who knows.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by Metsfan0507

This is something I'm struggling with as a relatively young (mid 30s) collector just getting into pre-war vintage. Do I buy now because prices will only continue to rise, or wait for prices to drop as older collectors start liquidating their collection (or their heirs do it for them). People in their 20s and 30s now for the most part can't really afford to drop thousands on Cobbs, Youngs, etc while also trying to buy houses and start families, so are they going to suddenly start buying (and spending big $) when they have more $ in their 50s and 60s? I imagine most of the $ being spent now is people in their 50s and 60s that started collecting in their 20s and 30s when costs weren't prohibitive, so they were hooked from an early age. Will the hobby continue to hook people who can only afford to enter the hobby at a much later age? Without new younger buyers, at some point prices have to drop to the point that it does attract new younger buyers.

The print runs are low enough that the top name Hofers and rare backs are going to rise. Commons and lower level Hofers may level off and drop as people can no longer afford to collect the set.

I see this being a problem for modern, people will move on to the hot new player, and postwar vintage. With much higher populations, prices could easily surpass the demand from a shrinking collector base.

[parkplace33]

Stars will continue to rise, but the commons (especially low grade) are coming down.

[Metsfan0507]

Possibly, but the question is- who will continue to buy these stars in 30 years to continue to drive up the price? Will the 20-30 somethings of today eventually find the same interest in T206 as the 20-30 somethings of 30 years ago? I think we all hope that the answer is yes, but it's hard to say right now. A huge driver of this hobby is nostalgia- will people be nostalgic for cards they never collected in their youth because they couldn't afford them? Or will they be nostalgic for the modern/ultra modern cards that they did buy?

Originally Posted by parkplace33

Stars will continue to rise, but the commons (especially low grade) are coming down.

[Metsfan0507]

Haha, good to know that the more things change, there are some that stay the same. I hope you're right!

Originally Posted by asphaltman

This was also my same argument 25 years ago when I got into the hobby in my 20's. 25 years later...the next generation has just continued to push prices...We are 110 years past T206....hard to think everything relies on just the baby boomer generation having maxed this set out...but who knows.

[MVSNYC]

Originally Posted by asphaltman

This was also my same argument 25 years ago when I got into the hobby in my 20's. 25 years later...the next generation has just continued to push prices...We are 110 years past T206....hard to think everything relies on just the baby boomer generation having maxed this set out...but who knows.

The love and admiration for T206 isn't going anywhere.

My son, who's really gotten into collecting, of course likes some modern, BUT is most enthralled with T206, and it's depth (HOFers, SLers, all the different backs, etc). Not saying every young collector will be like him, but it's exciting to see him so into the set.

[Yoda]

I am beginning to wonder what with the collapse of the crypto market, rising interest rates and the banking sector seemingly shaky, whether some will bury their money in the backyard for self-protection, digging some up when the family screams for a trip to the Golden Arches. Gov't Covid relief money has pretty much dissipated, some of it obtained fraudulently, and people are more or less financially on their own. The uber rich will continue to buy high value cards as Wall St. seems to approve of sports cards as an admitted asset. But for the average Joe vintage cards may not be the highest priority.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Metsfan0507

Possibly, but the question is- who will continue to buy these stars in 30 years to continue to drive up the price? Will the 20-30 somethings of today eventually find the same interest in T206 as the 20-30 somethings of 30 years ago? I think we all hope that the answer is yes, but it's hard to say right now. A huge driver of this hobby is nostalgia- will people be nostalgic for cards they never collected in their youth because they couldn't afford them? Or will they be nostalgic for the modern/ultra modern cards that they did buy?

In 1960 Burdick wrote that a card collection is "a magic carpet that takes you away from work-a-day cares to havens of relaxing quietude where you can relive the pleasures and adventures of a past day—brought to life in vivid picture and prose."

Card collecting isn't just about nostalgia for our own experiences, it is about a personality type that revels in old things and the continuum of history, that connects in a metaphysical sense with whatever inhabits old objects, that finds peace in the existence, the survival of a scrap of cardboard for a century or more, despite the way the world has changed. We collect because we are driven to it, just as an artist is driven to create art, a performer is driven to take to the stage. I saw Paul Rodriguez at an open mic, Jay Leno doing a set at a small club, not because they have to but because they need to.

Terence Mann : Ray, people will come Ray. They'll come to card shows for reasons they can't even fathom. They'll turn up the driveway not knowing for sure why they're doing it. They'll arrive at the door as innocent as children, longing for the past. Of course, we won't mind if you buy a Ruth, you'll say. It's only $20,000 per person. They'll pass over the money without even thinking about it: for it is money they have and peace they lack. And they'll walk out to the food court; sit in shirtsleeves on a perfect afternoon. They'll find they have an overpriced hot dog and soda somewhere along one of the aisles, where they sit dressed like children and look at baseball cards. And they'll read the cards and it'll be as if they dipped themselves in magic waters. The memories will be so thick they'll have to brush them away from their faces. Collectors will come Ray. The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been cards. America has rolled by like an army of steamrollers. It has been erased like a blackboard, rebuilt and erased again. But card collecting has marked the time. This cardboard, this hobby: it's a part of our past, Ray. It reminds of us of all that once was good and it could be again. Oh... collectors will come Ray. Collectors will most definitely come.



Or we'll all decide this is gigantic waste of time and we need to get a life, and burn the crap for warmth...

[Republicaninmass]

Plowing your money into graded common/common backs in grades 1-3 likely wont end well

[Yoda]

Adam, I think you captured the essence of what being a true collector is all about.

[Mbjerry]

Originally Posted by rats60

The print runs are low enough that the top name Hofers and rare backs are going to rise. Commons and lower level Hofers may level off and drop as people can no longer afford to collect the set.

I see this being a problem for modern, people will move on to the hot new player, and postwar vintage. With much higher populations, prices could easily surpass the demand from a shrinking collector base.

So… you think postwar will rise?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Touch'EmAll]

As a kid and young adult, the opportunity to purchase T206's was slim. Even if you wanted to, the venues to purchase were few and far between. You can't collect what's not available.

Nowadays, with the internet, the availability to purchase such cards is so much more than yesteryear. The baseball card collecting population base today has to be more today than decades ago. And it stands to reason that the demand is and will be higher as well. There are more opportunities than ever before for a new collector to enter the T206 market. For these reasons, values may climb more in today's world vs. our world many years ago.

Probably a safe conclusion that T206 values will keep climbing.

[Vintage Vern]

Originally Posted by raulus

Welcome to the doom and gloom club, Vern. You’ll find it’s a lonely club around these parts. Only trouble is the market keeps disproving our hypothesis!

Not doom or gloom, just a fact that hits every hobby at some point. What's being disproven?

[Vintage Vern]

Originally Posted by asphaltman

This was also my same argument 25 years ago when I got into the hobby in my 20's. 25 years later...the next generation has just continued to push prices...We are 110 years past T206....hard to think everything relies on just the baby boomer generation having maxed this set out...but who knows.

I don't think the next generation is pushing the prices, I think people that have the means are pushing the prices.

[Vintage Vern]

Originally Posted by rats60

The print runs are low enough that the top name Hofers and rare backs are going to rise. Commons and lower level Hofers may level off and drop as people can no longer afford to collect the set.

I see this being a problem for modern, people will move on to the hot new player, and postwar vintage. With much higher populations, prices could easily surpass the demand from a shrinking collector base.

Yep, that's how I see things as well. Its just history repeating itself. Take any hobby, and it all connects the same as the end game.

[Vintage Vern]

Originally Posted by Metsfan0507

Possibly, but the question is- who will continue to buy these stars in 30 years to continue to drive up the price? Will the 20-30 somethings of today eventually find the same interest in T206 as the 20-30 somethings of 30 years ago? I think we all hope that the answer is yes, but it's hard to say right now. A huge driver of this hobby is nostalgia- will people be nostalgic for cards they never collected in their youth because they couldn't afford them? Or will they be nostalgic for the modern/ultra modern cards that they did buy?

Exactly.

[Vintage Vern]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

In 1960 Burdick wrote that a card collection is "a magic carpet that takes you away from work-a-day cares to havens of relaxing quietude where you can relive the pleasures and adventures of a past day—brought to life in vivid picture and prose."

Card collecting isn't just about nostalgia for our own experiences, it is about a personality type that revels in old things and the continuum of history, that connects in a metaphysical sense with whatever inhabits old objects, that finds peace in the existence, the survival of a scrap of cardboard for a century or more, despite the way the world has changed. We collect because we are driven to it, just as an artist is driven to create art, a performer is driven to take to the stage. I saw Paul Rodriguez at an open mic, Jay Leno doing a set at a small club, not because they have to but because they need to.

Terence Mann : Ray, people will come Ray. They'll come to card shows for reasons they can't even fathom. They'll turn up the driveway not knowing for sure why they're doing it. They'll arrive at the door as innocent as children, longing for the past. Of course, we won't mind if you buy a Ruth, you'll say. It's only $20,000 per person. They'll pass over the money without even thinking about it: for it is money they have and peace they lack. And they'll walk out to the food court; sit in shirtsleeves on a perfect afternoon. They'll find they have an overpriced hot dog and soda somewhere along one of the aisles, where they sit dressed like children and look at baseball cards. And they'll read the cards and it'll be as if they dipped themselves in magic waters. The memories will be so thick they'll have to brush them away from their faces. Collectors will come Ray. The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been cards. America has rolled by like an army of steamrollers. It has been erased like a blackboard, rebuilt and erased again. But card collecting has marked the time. This cardboard, this hobby: it's a part of our past, Ray. It reminds of us of all that once was good and it could be again. Oh... collectors will come Ray. Collectors will most definitely come.



Or we'll all decide this is gigantic waste of time and we need to get a life, and burn the crap for warmth...

Very few things survive in our culture, and old things or ways of life are forgotten on a grand scale. Lives change, cultures change, and so do things that are old. I can guarantee what my dad thought was old and worthy of collecting, his grandkids and great grandkids will have absolutely no interest in preserving.

I was always waiting for grandkids so I could pass down my love for vintage cars. Well I have 4 grandkids, all under the age of 5. The problem now for me is what can I pass down to them? I was hoping to build each of them a classic of some sort that fit their own personality. Problem being vintage cars may not be allowed on our streets by that time nor can I afford them at going rate. How many people will preserve something that no longer can be used that once had value, but no longer will. Time changes much of what we don't think will ever change.

[RCMcKenzie]

My understanding is that you don't collect baseball cards, except for Clemons, who has like 3 or 4 cards.

I wouldn't go to a Classic Mustang chat board and tell people that one day in the future Ford's will be worthless. For me it's a fun hobby.

[Touch'EmAll]

Very few things survive in our culture.

My grandfather was a baseball fan, went to games, collected cards.
My dad was a baseball fan, went to games, collected cards.
I am a baseball fan, attended games, collect cards.
My kid is a fan, has gone to games, collects cards.

Baseball will continue to be played well after I am gone. And I suspect cards will continue to be made and collected many, many years from now.

My guess is that baseball cards and collecting are one of the few things that will survive.

[RCMcKenzie]

I forgot to answer Dave's original question. My dad bought me a Leaf Jackie Robinson for $45 and 20 years later I sold it for $250, now it would be $4000. Is this sustainable? I don't know. Maybe Chad is correct, but I try to stay within a budget, like with anything else, vacations, sporting events, etc.

[BobC]

Some very interesting posts, and also some very misguided ones.

When the sports card, particularly the baseball card, hobby really started taking off in the 1980's, it was fueled pretty much entirely by the Baby Boomer generation starting to reach middle age, and the desire for cards those Baby Boomers used to buy and collect at the local corner store (and elsewhere) when they were kids. It was a return to childhood, and for many simpler times. And with the rise in that demand, our wonderful capitalistic society immediately saw the potential to make money off these reminiscing adults, and the card hobby as it has eventually come to be as we know it today, was born. Oddly though, no one in that Baby Boomer generation was around or ever collected T206 cards. When the hobby card surge started back in the '80s, T206 cards were already 70+ years old, and weren't the focus of the Baby Boomer collecting surge.

So, what is with those naysayer's claims, going on about how the current (and future) generations won't be as interested in collecting T206 cards, and thus because of high prices and diminishing demand, that they fully expect T206 prices to fall in the coming years? They point to other hobbies as the examples of this happening. A few questions to them then. Based on what some of you are saying, T206 cards never should have become such popular collectibles to begin with, so how the heck did that ever happen in the first place? And what exactly are these other hobbies you are pointing to as examples of how T206 cards will face diminishing demand/prices going forward? I'm wondering if you may not be over generalizing, or making your assumptions on facts and circumstances that may not be as similar between these other hobbies and T206 collecting as you may think.

Is it at all possible, or did you ever even consider that, regardless of collector's ages or generations, there is always going to be a percentage of people that like to collect things? And that just like the Baby Boomers that started looking for their childhood cards back in the '80s, a percentage of them with that collecting bug will eventually transition to older pre-war cards, such as the T206s, due to their combined love/interest in the game of baseball, their appreciation of history, as well as the artistic and other aspects these older cards and collectibles presented? Such as having something that no one else, or at least only a very few other people, ever had. Isn't that pretty much exactly why the modern collectors favor manufactured rarities, where they may have the only one known to exist for themselves? But then what happens when they finally realize that that 1-of-1 Ohtani card they lucked out and pulled from a pack eventually turns out to be one of literally hundreds (if not eventually thousands) of 1-of-1 Ohtani cards that will ultimately be produced over time? Same thing with a player's rookie card, especially during the prime of Topps early years. They was literally only one, completely agreed upon by the hobby community, Topps rookie card of their beloved HOFers. Nowadays, how many different cards of a player's "rookie" (or even pre-rookie) card get released among all the different sets put out yearly, with all the different subsets, variations, versions and so on? You want a Pete Rose rookie, everyone knows you go for his "63 Toops card. What card do you get for Ohtani's rookie card then? Or maybe a better question is how many different cards can be considered as his rookie card then from his MLB rookie season? Is it at all possible that the collecting bug in many people will eventually kick in and have at least a portion of those young, modern collectors start looking at the older, vintage and pre-war items that truly are rare and in small supply, and not just manufactured that way? I sure wouldn't bet against that happening.

And as for other hobbies as examples of diminishing demand and interest, and therefor pricing, are you talking about things like say stamp collecting or model trains? If so, it is true that younger people are not that into hobbies such as those, and thus collector interest (and resulting prices) has seen some down turns over the past several decades. But are those younger generation's declining interest due entirely to prices and availability, or was it maybe more because the younger generations started to experience a disconnect and loss of experience/interaction with those types of hobbies, and what was ultimately behind them? For example, we still have trains in use today, but are they still the major transportation venue they once were in this country? How many of you regularly as a kid rode on trains to get anywhere? Isn't the emphasis seemingly on cars, trucks and planes for transportation of people and goods anymore? When you see newer, modern TV shows and movies, how many of them now focus on train travel for transportation versus planes, trucks and cars? See the point, kids (ie: future collectors) haven't been seeing and hearing as much about trains as they used to. And in fact, with the recent issues with derailments and so on. the entire industry is being looked upon with an even more unfavorable light in today's thinking. And besides, it is so much easier (and cheaper) to create a video game with trains if someone really wants the experience, as opposed to buying and setting up a train set anymore. The kids are no longer into it. Same kind of thing with stamps. Tell anyone in the younger generations you still pay your bills by mailing a check WITH A STAMP, and they laugh at you. Also, in the older days, mail from foreign countries would be delivered, and thus those foreign stamps be much more accessible and available to kids for collecting. But nowadays, no one mails anything. They use email, text messages, Facebook, Tic-Toc, Twitter, and on and on, so no one is using stamps like they used to. Meanwhile, baseball, though not as popular a sport and played by virtually every kid as it once was in America, is still played, followed and loved by a huge portion of the population today, and from the looks of it, for the foreseeable future. In fact, with players like Ohtani, and the recent WBC tournament, baseball's declining popularity in the U.S. seems to be more than being made up by its increasing popularity in other parts of the world. Much like basketball seems to have taken off on a worldwide scale.

I would think that as long as baseball is a viable, well watched and followed sport in this country, younger generations will still be drawn to it and the cards that are produced of the players of their generation(s). And as such and knowing that many of these younger generation people will also invariably have that collecting bug/DNA in them, they will eventually pick up and become interested in the older vintage, pre-war cards as well. And as the population continues to rise, that means in all likelihood there would be even more future baseball collectors to be interested in the older vintage, pre-war cards. And of course, inflation will always be a part of our existence as well it seems. So, just by that fact alone, the cards you have today will likely go up in value just by holding onto them and due to that inflation factor alone. The time for the baseball card hobby to start failing is when the game of baseball itself becomes so unpopular or irrelevant that future generations of kids no longer follow, play or have any real interest in baseball or baseball games at all. But being that human males are by nature competitive and active in many sports, including and especially baseball, I don't see that big T206 hobby fall off happening anytime soon.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by RCMcKenzie

I forgot to answer Dave's original question. My dad bought me a Leaf Jackie Robinson for $45 and 20 years later I sold it for $250, now it would be $4000. Is this sustainable? I don't know. Maybe Chad is correct, but I try to stay within a budget, like with anything else, vacations, sporting events, etc.

Rob,

Talking about one specific card, from one specific set, from one specific player, who is also recognized as one of the all-time greats of the game, AND as well as for his place in history in regards to issues surrounding segregation and racism not just in baseball, but in everyday life here in the U.S. as well. Not sure that is a good or particularly relevant example to use to help decide this particular question.

Also, I don't think the question should necessarily include or be about the recent pandemic surge in prices we've seen as well. Kind of like stocks, card prices can fluctuate on a more current basis over time. But to me, the OP's question is will those card prices over time continue to show an overall, ongoing rise.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by RCMcKenzie

I forgot to answer Dave's original question. My dad bought me a Leaf Jackie Robinson for $45 and 20 years later I sold it for $250, now it would be $4000. Is this sustainable? I don't know. Maybe Chad is correct, but I try to stay within a budget, like with anything else, vacations, sporting events, etc.

Rob,

Talking about one specific card, from one specific set, from one specific player, who is also recognized as one of the all-time greats of the game, AND as well as for his place in history in regards to issues surrounding segregation and racism not just in baseball, but in everyday life here in the U.S. as well. Not sure that is a good or particularly relevant example to use to help decide this particular question.

Also, I don't think the question should necessarily include or be about the recent pandemic surge in prices we've seen as well. Kind of like stocks, card prices can fluctuate on a more current basis over time. But to me, the OP's question is will those card prices over time continue to show an overall, ongoing rise.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by BobC

But to me, the OP's question is will those card prices over time continue to show an overall, ongoing rise.

Of course, I don’t know the answer to this. But I do know prices have gone up regularly and steadily over the 40 years I have been collecting, despite the fact that every person who saw and remember the t206 players has been dead for decades. I believe that trend will continue.

Vintage Vern, you can play with your cars. I will play with my cardboard. Time will tell who is right.

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by Yoda

I am beginning to wonder what with the collapse of the crypto market, rising interest rates and the banking sector seemingly shaky, whether some will bury their money in the backyard for self-protection, digging some up when the family screams for a trip to the Golden Arches. Gov't Covid relief money has pretty much dissipated, some of it obtained fraudulently, and people are more or less financially on their own. The uber rich will continue to buy high value cards as Wall St. seems to approve of sports cards as an admitted asset. But for the average Joe vintage cards may not be the highest priority.

Great points here.

I recently dealt with a collector wanting to sell a few higher end cards. They straight up told me they would only sell for physical silver and gold due to fears of a global digital currency. I told them if that happens, it is basically the end of the world economy. I don’t think they liked that response.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

The OP’s question was how much would it cost to put together/obtain a 520 set in 1-3 condition.

Posters took the the thread in a different direction - whether t206 prices will continue to rise. Of course, I don’t know the answer to this. But I do know prices have gone up regularly and steadily over the 40 years I have been collecting, despite the fact that every person who saw and remember the t206 players has been dead for decades. I believe that trend will continue.

Vintage Vern, you can play with your cars. I will play with my cardboard. Time will tell who is right.

Sorry Ryan, but did you not read the actual title to this thread before calling me out on what I posted?

"T206 Set...Minus the Big Four, and other Subsets...Will values keep climbing?"

That was the initial question posed by the OP, and since it was the actual title to this thread, would assume that it was also fully intended as the main question of this thread as well. Or am I missing something else?

[Rhotchkiss]

Bob, you are correct!! My bad. I was looking at the body of the thread, where the OP asks about the cost of a set, which is what I answered in my early post. But the title does in fact ask if values will keep going up! I will edit my other post

[Exhibitman]

As an academic question, pondering where T206 prices will go is a fun topic, but it seems to me that if you are genuinely concerned with whether values will keep going up, you are investing rather than collecting and you need to set a price point where you will be satisfied, take a profit, and move on to the next investment. You can't whistle through the graveyard as an investor.

For all my pontificating about deals and the finances of the hobby, I am still on the collector spectrum. I bought a lot of great cards a long time ago not because I thought they were good investments but because I enjoyed them. It was my golf club membership, my season seats. The fact that they are turning out to have been a spectacular investment is a bonus. I was happy owning them when they were worth $100 a card rather than $10,000 a card. If I get to the point where worrying about what my cards are worth exceeds the enjoyment I derive from them, I am gone, immediately. Thus far, it has not. One of the few positives in not having bought the marquee cards in the hobby when I could have done so is that I am not faced with a dilemma right now of cashing in for a life-altering sum or continuing to collect. Selling my collection of bric-a-brac would be nice but would not alter my life, so I don't feel that pressure.

That said, I've noticed that my pace of sports card acquisitions has really fallen off recently. It just doesn't feel like light fun. I've actually spent way more time looking at non-sports items like postcards. They are beautiful and so cheap that there is no pressure.

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Of course, I don’t know the answer to this. But I do know prices have gone up regularly and steadily over the 40 years I have been collecting, despite the fact that every person who saw and remember the t206 players has been dead for decades. I believe that trend will continue.

Vintage Vern, you can play with your cars. I will play with my cardboard. Time will tell who is right.

Beautiful cards Ryan.

[RCMcKenzie]

Originally Posted by BobC

Rob,

Talking about one specific card, from one specific set, from one specific player, who is also recognized as one of the all-time greats of the game, AND as well as for his place in history in regards to issues surrounding segregation and racism not just in baseball, but in everyday life here in the U.S. as well. Not sure that is a good or particularly relevant example to use to help decide this particular question.

Also, I don't think the question should necessarily include or be about the recent pandemic surge in prices we've seen as well. Kind of like stocks, card prices can fluctuate on a more current basis over time. But to me, the OP's question is will those card prices over time continue to show an overall, ongoing rise.

Bob, I could have chosen more examples. Dave's question has already been answered by many others above. I was responding to Chad's 5 or so posts in a row that cards are bad and realized I was going off topic, and tried to circle back.

I know I oversimplify things and make too many loose analogies.

Around 1980,T206 Cobbs in vg were around $125 when the Leaf Jackie was $45. Leaf Ruth was $75. Prices have soared in the last 20 years. To me the wild surge around the pandemic were cards from 2000-present, which to me is a different hobby.

[Casey2296]

For me this is a hobby, my goal is to put a collection together that means something to me, yes I'm glad that some of my cards are worth more than I paid but that's not the point. I'm enjoying myself and when I'm gone and my kids sell off my collection it may be worth $2000 or $200,000, doesn't matter, they can take the money and do something they enjoy with it.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by RCMcKenzie

Bob, I could have chosen more examples. Dave's question has already been answered by many others above. I was responding to Chad's 5 or so posts in a row that cards are bad and realized I was going off topic, and tried to circle back.

I know I oversimplify things and make too many loose analogies.

Around 1980,T206 Cobbs in vg were around $125 when the Leaf Jackie was $45. Leaf Ruth was $75. Prices have soared in the last 20 years. To me the wild surge around the pandemic were cards from 2000-present, which to me is a different hobby.

Rob,

No problem, you make great points, but I was thinking in terms of what the OP was specifically asking about in regard to the main T206 set. The vast majority of which is actually going to be cards of common players. I can also see, and understand, your point about responding to others. I fully agree with you in regard to what you were saying about the Jackie card, but like I pointed out, that Jackie card, as well as Ruth's Leaf card, and so on, are not exactly your normal, everyday common cards. LOL And cards such as those seem to have been boosted more so than others by the recent pandemic price surge, but lately now seem to have been coming back down to Earth a little bit. I didn't expect them to remain at those apex pandemic price surge values, but also don't count them coming back down some as a free fall, just a bit of a market correction for now, I think. Good posts, great thread.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by RCMcKenzie

Bob, I could have chosen more examples. Dave's question has already been answered by many others above. I was responding to Chad's 5 or so posts in a row that cards are bad and realized I was going off topic, and tried to circle back.

I know I oversimplify things and make too many loose analogies.

Around 1980,T206 Cobbs in vg were around $125 when the Leaf Jackie was $45. Leaf Ruth was $75. Prices have soared in the last 20 years. To me the wild surge around the pandemic were cards from 2000-present, which to me is a different hobby.

Rob,

No problem, you make great points, but I was thinking in terms of what the OP was specifically asking about in regard to the main T206 set. The vast majority of which is actually going to be cards of common players. I can also see, and understand, your point about responding to others. I fully agree with you in regard to what you were saying about the Jackie card, but like I pointed out, that Jackie card, as well as Ruth's Leaf card, and so on, are not exactly your normal, everyday common cards. LOL And cards such as those seem to have been boosted more so than others by the recent pandemic price surge, but lately now seem to have been coming back down to Earth a little bit. I didn't expect them to remain at those apex pandemic price surge values, but also don't count them coming back down some as a free fall, just a bit of a market correction for now, I think. Good posts, great thread.

[Rhotchkiss]

Thanks Phil!

I am a collector who 100% views my cards as material investments. I love cards, and I have collected them all my life, so it’s a fun investment. The collector in me (and he is a biggun) often takes over, which is why I have numerous back runs and several sets and subsets. However, because I view cards as investments, I stick mostly to the “blue chip” players and sets- Cobb, Wagner, Ruth, Jackson, T206, 1914 CJ, E107, D304, T3, etc.

In my opinion, which ain’t worth much, pre war cards are, in general, pretty good investments, and there is NO set more “blue chip” than T206. Cards, and especially t206, have proven this over the last 5 decades, and the way the “hobby” is going, I suspect that will continue into at least the 2030s. The T206 set is legendary for so many reasons. There may be price fluctuations over the shorter term, but whatever a 520 set costs today in a 2 average, it will likely cost more in 2028. Personally, I think owning a t206 set (any grade) is a great investment.