NonSports Forum

Net54baseball.com
Welcome to Net54baseball.com. These forums are devoted to both Pre- and Post- war baseball cards and vintage memorabilia, as well as other sports. There is a separate section for Buying, Selling and Trading - the B/S/T area!! If you write anything concerning a person or company your full name needs to be in your post or obtainable from it. . Contact the moderator at leon@net54baseball.com should you have any questions or concerns. When you click on links to eBay on this site and make a purchase, this can result in this site earning a commission. Affiliate programs and affiliations include, but are not limited to, the eBay Partner Network. Enjoy!
Net54baseball.com
Net54baseball.com
ebay GSB
T206s on eBay
Babe Ruth Cards on eBay
t206 Ty Cobb on eBay
Ty Cobb Cards on eBay
Lou Gehrig Cards on eBay
Baseball T201-T217 on eBay
Baseball E90-E107 on eBay
T205 Cards on eBay
Baseball Postcards on eBay
Goudey Cards on eBay
Baseball Memorabilia on eBay
Baseball Exhibit Cards on eBay
Baseball Strip Cards on eBay
Baseball Baking Cards on eBay
Sporting News Cards on eBay
Play Ball Cards on eBay
Joe DiMaggio Cards on eBay
Mickey Mantle Cards on eBay
Bowman 1951-1955 on eBay
Football Cards on eBay

Go Back   Net54baseball.com Forums > Net54baseball Main Forum - WWII & Older Baseball Cards > Net54baseball Vintage (WWII & Older) Baseball Cards & New Member Introductions

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 01-23-2022, 10:20 AM
Rhotchkiss's Avatar
Rhotchkiss Rhotchkiss is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Posts: 4,256
Default I simply do not understand Modern - Doncic vs Mantle

I am bored, sitting ay home, and waiting for football to start. So, to pass the time I am looking at every auction house I can think of. I saw a post here that PWCC extended its monthly premier auction last minute, and so I decided to look at what's in that (still open) auction. Really, there is nothing for me at all, as I counted a total of 3 pre-war cards in the whole auction (including a Magie error); its probably 80%+ new and shiny football and basketball with maybe as much soccer as baseball. Anyway....

Here is what I just do not understand: There is a 2018 National Treasure, Rookie Patch Auto, 7/99, of Luka Doncic, graded BVG 9.5, that is currently sitting at $280,000 before Buyer's premium. There is a also a 1952 Mantle, PSA 7, currently sitting at $240,000 before Buyer's Premium.

Luka Doncic has played in the NBA 3-4 years and has won absolutely nothing. Mickey Mantle is a first-ballot HOFer, who played almost 20 years with the Yankees, appeared in 12 World Series and won 7. He is an icon of his era. This Doncic card comes in at least one other exact same variation, except its numbered to 20; I am sure that same pic is on many other Doncic cards. The 1952 Mantle is likely one of the top 3 most iconic sports cards of all time. Not to mention, there are only 75 non-qualified PSA 7 Mantles, with only 56 non-qualified graded higher (close to the 110 of the Doncic RPAs)

How/why is a 2018 card of Luka Doncic worth over $50k more (with BP) than a 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle PSA 7???!!!

I get I am a fossil, and I collect cards of dead guys that many young people dont care about, in a sport becoming less popular with each generation. But I am not talking about an E92 Eddie Collins or even a T204 Walter Johnson. I am talking about a PSA 7, 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle. I simply do not understand and cant help thinking/knowing that the winner of this Doncic (and many similar cards) will take a bath unless he/she flips it ASAP (and I pity the person holding the card when the bottom drops out)
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 01-23-2022, 10:25 AM
Peter_Spaeth's Avatar
Peter_Spaeth Peter_Spaeth is online now
Peter Spaeth
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 30,265
Default

Don't try to think like a millennial social media apps cryptocurrency nouveau riche tshirt wearing guy with 50 pairs of sneakers, you'll never get it.
__________________
My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at
https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/

He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt.

Last edited by Peter_Spaeth; 01-23-2022 at 10:27 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 01-23-2022, 10:26 AM
brianclat11's Avatar
brianclat11 brianclat11 is offline
Brian Clatfelter
member
 
Join Date: Apr 2021
Location: Raleigh, NC
Posts: 128
Default

I don't understand it either, other than to say it will probably all end badly for people paying that kind of money for contrived scarcity. I dabble in modern for sports teams and players I like, but at a reasonable level.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 01-23-2022, 10:38 AM
Exhibitman's Avatar
Exhibitman Exhibitman is offline
Ad@m W@r$h@w
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Beautiful Downtown Burbank
Posts: 13,044
Default

Just a pee-pee measuring contest among the new generation of investor-collectors. Besides, it's PWCC. A lot of collectors won't even deal with them and I am guessing that many of them are into vintage and don't trust anything PWCC sells as not having been doctored.
__________________
Read my blog; it will make all your dreams come true.

https://adamstevenwarshaw.substack.com/

Or not...
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 01-23-2022, 10:43 AM
mrreality68's Avatar
mrreality68 mrreality68 is offline
Jeffrey Kuhr
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2017
Location: Long Island, NY
Posts: 5,607
Default

Most of us are in the same fossilize boat as you and most of us are in the similar vintage collecting universe.

We appreciate the history of the game and the cards we collect.

Millennial’s and new money put money in the people and subjects they know and do not necessarily know or appreciate the past.

So their purchases will be modern and of those that are known/famous to them
__________________
Thanks all

Jeff Kuhr

https://www.flickr.com/photos/144250058@N05/

Looking for
1920 Heading Home Ruth Cards
1933 Uncle Jacks Candy Babe Ruth Card
1921 Frederick Foto Ruth
Joe Jackson Cards 1916 Advertising Backs
1910 Old Mills Joe Jackson
1914 Boston Garter Joe Jackson
1915 Cracker Jack Joe Jackson
1911 Pinkerton Joe Jackson
Shoeless Joe Jackson Autograph
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 01-23-2022, 10:47 AM
pawpawdiv9's Avatar
pawpawdiv9 pawpawdiv9 is offline
Chr!$ M!ll!c@n
Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: GA
Posts: 2,707
Default

Sticking with the older stuff here--Much better than stocking up on Joe Burrow & Crappiolo, Josh Allen, Stafford Rc's...while the Mahomoes & Brady been on a tear.
__________________
LOOKING TO BUY:
1916-20 UNC Big Heads
Need List:
Ping Bodie, Sam Rice
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 01-23-2022, 11:11 AM
egri's Avatar
egri egri is offline
Sco.tt Mar.cus
Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Location: Norfolk, VA
Posts: 1,785
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss View Post
...cards of dead guys that many young people dont care about, in a sport becoming less popular with each generation.
I think you answered your own question. That, and we're in a bubble right now that has led to all kinds of crazy valuations, not just in cards. Maybe there is an end to it looming; the meme stocks from 2020-21 have been getting hammered these past few months. Or maybe not; I've given up trying to time the market.
__________________
Signed 1953 Topps set: 264/274 (96.35 %)
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 01-23-2022, 11:24 AM
Republicaninmass Republicaninmass is offline
T3d $h3rm@n
Member
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 8,148
Default

Because someone might pay more for it...someday. greater fool theory in action
__________________
"Trolling Ebay right now" Š

Always looking for signed 1952 topps as well as variations and errors
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 01-23-2022, 11:27 AM
GasHouseGang's Avatar
GasHouseGang GasHouseGang is offline
David M.
Member
 
Join Date: May 2009
Location: S. California
Posts: 2,854
Default

Do you think it's going to be like the junk wax of the 90's? Everyone was so sure the price was always going to go up but they got left holding the bag.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 01-23-2022, 11:38 AM
3-2-count's Avatar
3-2-count 3-2-count is offline
T0NY @
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 1,844
Default

Just a few weeks ago I was discussing this very subject with another board member.

This Ruth sold at auction in December for far less than what many Lebron James rookie cards are selling for at the moment.

Just let that sink in for a bit!

Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 01-23-2022, 11:47 AM
Johnny630 Johnny630 is offline
Johnny MaZilli
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 4,146
Default

If the Chiefs Bills game is really good tonight like last nights Packers 49’ers this Auction Might Get Extended till Monday, why not, it’s ok to do.
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 01-23-2022, 11:56 AM
Tabe's Avatar
Tabe Tabe is offline
Chris
Chr.is Ta.bar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Spokane, WA
Posts: 1,410
Default

It's really pretty simple - demand. Modern basketball has a worldwide audience to a level that vintage baseball doesn't.
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 01-23-2022, 12:20 PM
Rhotchkiss's Avatar
Rhotchkiss Rhotchkiss is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Posts: 4,256
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tabe View Post
It's really pretty simple - demand. Modern basketball has a worldwide audience to a level that vintage baseball doesn't.
I get that, and I could almost understand it if it was a 1986 fleer Jordan psa 10 or THE top Lebron or Kobe card. But this is Luka f-ing Doncic. This guy has done nothing. He has won nothing. He has had barely more than a cup of coffee in the NBA. In fact, the Doncic card I mention in my first post is currently at about what 1986 Fleer Jordan PSA 10s have been selling for, on average, over the past year (according to VCP). So ignore the comparison to mantle (or Ruth)- why is a Luca Doncic for selling the same as a Jordan?!
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 01-23-2022, 12:27 PM
53toppscollector's Avatar
53toppscollector 53toppscollector is offline
James M
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2021
Posts: 1,078
Default

Its just pure speculation and day trading. Jordan can't really do anything now to make his cards more desirable and popular. If Doncic wins an MVP or a title, people can flip the cards and make a profit.

If people looked at actual reality, they'd realize that Doncic has basically no chance to be considered better than Jordan. So his card price ceiling should realistically be whatever an '86 Fleer Jordan PSA 10 is worth. You can argue that if he has cards with a lower POP, like an NT RPA numbered to 99 or lower, I can see a PSA 10 selling for more than an '86 Fleer MJ PSA 10. But that is a small handful of very specific cards, and that assumes Doncic goes on to have a career that puts him in the discussion for best ever. Which is kind of crazy, given that Lebron is currently still playing, is a far superior player to Doncic, and already has a massive trophy case/list of career accomplishments, and some people dont even put him on Jordan's level.

Pure daytrading and speculation. When all of the sneakerheads leave the hobby migrate to NFTs or whatever comes after NFTs, I think we'll see the hobby return to something a little bit more sane. Lots of people are gonna lose a lot of money in the process
__________________
My T206 research thread
My T205 Census thread
Want list: M101-2, T205s (American Beauties)
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 01-23-2022, 12:30 PM
RCMcKenzie's Avatar
RCMcKenzie RCMcKenzie is offline
Rob
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: TX
Posts: 3,023
Default

I also don't understand Doncic cards. At least LeBron and Serena are clearly at the top, or near the top of the historical greats list. Watching him play, to me, he is somewhere below James Harden in skill level. He's the second best player on a championship team, i.e., like KD and Harden.

On basketball-reference, they have a stat called "similarity scores" through 3 seasons. Here are the names they compare him with...

Mo Cheeks
Calvin Murphy
John Logan
Glen Combs
Allen Iverson
James Harden
Otis Birdsong
Eddie Jones
Louie Dampier
Bob Davies
__________________
Want to buy or trade for T213-1 (Bob Rhoades)
Other Louisiana issues T216 T215 T214 T213 Etc
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 01-23-2022, 12:31 PM
BobbyStrawberry's Avatar
BobbyStrawberry BobbyStrawberry is online now
mĒttHǝɯ h0uℊℌ
Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2020
Location: USA
Posts: 2,297
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss View Post
I get that, and I could almost understand it if it was a 1986 fleer Jordan psa 10 or THE top Lebron or Kobe card. But this is Luka f-ing Doncic. This guy has done nothing. He has won nothing. He has had barely more than a cup of coffee in the NBA. In fact, the Doncic card I mention in my first post is currently at about what 1986 Fleer Jordan PSA 10s have been selling for, on average, over the past year (according to VCP). So ignore the comparison to mantle (or Ruth)- why is a Luca Doncic for selling the same as a Jordan?!
I'm puzzled by this as well. Doncic is one of the most overrated, overhyped players in the game right now.
__________________
_
Successful transactions with: Natswin2019, ParachromBleu, Cmount76, theuclakid, tiger8mush, shammus, jcmtiger, oldjudge, coolshemp, joejo20, Blunder19, ibechillin33, t206kid, helfrich91, Dashcol, philliesfan, alaskapaul3, Natedog, Kris19, frankbmd, tonyo, Baseball Rarities, Thromdog, T2069bk, t206fix, jakebeckleyoldeagleeye, Casey2296, rdeversole, brianp-beme, seablaster, twalk, qed2190, Gorditadogg, LuckyLarry
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 01-23-2022, 12:40 PM
Rhotchkiss's Avatar
Rhotchkiss Rhotchkiss is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Posts: 4,256
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss View Post
I get that, and I could almost understand it if it was a 1986 fleer Jordan psa 10 or THE top Lebron or Kobe card. But this is Luka f-ing Doncic. This guy has done nothing. He has won nothing. He has had barely more than a cup of coffee in the NBA. In fact, the Doncic card I mention in my first post is currently at about what 1986 Fleer Jordan PSA 10s have been selling for, on average, over the past year (according to VCP). So ignore the comparison to mantle (or Ruth)- why is a Luca Doncic for selling the same as a Jordan?!
BTW- I “almost” could understand if it was Jordan, but even that I really don’t even understand how that is more (even close) to a 52 mantle psa 7, considering there are a zillion 1986 fleer Jordan’s, most in high to super-high grades. And there is zero reason a Jordan in any condition- even one that smells like his farts- should trade for than one of the 100+/- babe Ruth rookies, in any condition

Last edited by Rhotchkiss; 01-23-2022 at 12:41 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 01-23-2022, 12:57 PM
Eric72's Avatar
Eric72 Eric72 is offline
Eric Perry
Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Philadelphia Suburbs
Posts: 3,405
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss View Post

...I get I am a fossil...
You're not alone. Nearly all the members of this board, even the twenty-somethings, are fossils.

I, for one, am proud (and glad) to be a fossil. While the "millennial social media apps cryptocurrency nouveau riche tshirt wearing guy with 50 pairs of sneakers" types have been buying modern the past two years, I have been acquiring Mantles and T206 HOFers. Had the newcomers targeted vintage instead of modern, my collection might have remained fairly static during 2020-21.

So, let them pay exorbitant prices for the Golden Ticket Rainbow Shimmer Ultrafractor of what's-his-name. Meanwhile, I'll be paying (slightly) less ridiculous prices for "pictures of long dead sporting men."

Credit to Peter Spaeth and Steven Finley for the quotes above
__________________
Eric Perry

Currently collecting:
T206 (132/524)
1956 Topps Baseball (189/342)

"You can observe a lot by just watching."
- Yogi Berra
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old 01-23-2022, 12:57 PM
MarkBartholomew MarkBartholomew is offline
member
 
Join Date: Jan 2022
Posts: 5
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss View Post
BTW- I “almost” could understand if it was Jordan, but even that I really don’t even understand how that is more (even close) to a 52 mantle psa 7, considering there are a zillion 1986 fleer Jordan’s, most in high to super-high grades. And there is zero reason a Jordan in any condition- even one that smells like his farts- should trade for than one of the 100+/- babe Ruth rookies, in any condition
The thing with Jordan is that he is the greatest, bar none, basketball player of all time, there's no denying it. There is no one on the horizon to take his legendary place. And basketball is much bigger than baseball around the world. So to me, his rookie cards will forever maintain their value, regardless of how many are out there.
Reply With Quote
  #20  
Old 01-23-2022, 01:02 PM
Peter_Spaeth's Avatar
Peter_Spaeth Peter_Spaeth is online now
Peter Spaeth
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 30,265
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss View Post
BTW- I “almost” could understand if it was Jordan, but even that I really don’t even understand how that is more (even close) to a 52 mantle psa 7, considering there are a zillion 1986 fleer Jordan’s, most in high to super-high grades. And there is zero reason a Jordan in any condition- even one that smells like his farts- should trade for than one of the 100+/- babe Ruth rookies, in any condition
Supply is only half the equation.
__________________
My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at
https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/

He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt.
Reply With Quote
  #21  
Old 01-23-2022, 01:25 PM
Fred's Avatar
Fred Fred is offline
Fred
Member
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 3,002
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by 3-2-count View Post
Just a few weeks ago I was discussing this very subject with another board member.

This Ruth sold at auction in December for far less than what many Lebron James rookie cards are selling for at the moment.

Just let that sink in for a bit!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNhfT5Kg8Oc
__________________
fr3d c0wl3s - always looking for OJs and other 19th century stuff. PM or email me if you have something
cool you're looking to find a new home for.
Reply With Quote
  #22  
Old 01-23-2022, 01:37 PM
Yoda Yoda is offline
Joh.n Spen.cer
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 1,888
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny630 View Post
If the Chiefs Bills game is really good tonight like last nights Packers 49’ers this Auction Might Get Extended till Monday, why not, it’s ok to do.
Johnny, I think today is going to be wild with 2 Championships on the line and for for those of us with skin in the game, the REA closing tonight. I can see myself stumbling between tv and office to check bids. Should be wild. I think even though it one of their sub prime auctions the bidding is going to be nuts.
And when we talk about dead fossils, let's not forget a very much alive former player dear to our collecting hearts: Willie Mays.
Reply With Quote
  #23  
Old 01-23-2022, 01:39 PM
Johnny630 Johnny630 is offline
Johnny MaZilli
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 4,146
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Yoda View Post
Johnny, I think today is going to be wild with 2 Championships on the line and for for those of us with skin in the game, the REA closing tonight. I can see myself stumbling between tv and office to check bids. Should be wild. I think even though it one of their sub prime auctions the bidding is going to be nuts.
And when we talk about dead fossils, let's not forget a very much alive former player dear to our collecting hearts: Willie Mays.
Agree ! Willie Mays is one of my favorites to collect.

I’m looking for a 53 Topps PSA 8 I’ve seen the 7’s on eBay and HA don’t care for them.
Reply With Quote
  #24  
Old 01-23-2022, 01:44 PM
bnorth's Avatar
bnorth bnorth is online now
Ben North
Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: South Dakota
Posts: 9,790
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth View Post
Don't try to think like a millennial social media apps cryptocurrency nouveau riche tshirt wearing guy with 50 pairs of sneakers, you'll never get it.
Nothing wrong with owning a "few" pairs of sneakers.

I have called modern cards a game of hot potato for a long time.

Wonder how much that Yasiel Puig superfractor is worth now?
Reply With Quote
  #25  
Old 01-23-2022, 01:51 PM
Republicaninmass Republicaninmass is offline
T3d $h3rm@n
Member
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 8,148
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by bnorth View Post
Nothing wrong with owning a "few" pairs of sneakers.

I have called modern cards a game of hot potato for a long time.

Wonder how much that Yasiel Puig superfractor is worth now?

Wait..but .it was a 1/1... with 164 different variations
__________________
"Trolling Ebay right now" Š

Always looking for signed 1952 topps as well as variations and errors
Reply With Quote
  #26  
Old 01-23-2022, 02:44 PM
Gorditadogg Gorditadogg is offline
Al Stein
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2019
Location: Chicago
Posts: 1,871
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth View Post
Don't try to think like a millennial social media apps cryptocurrency nouveau riche tshirt wearing guy with 50 pairs of sneakers, you'll never get it.
Haha he's talking about you Octavio!

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Reply With Quote
  #27  
Old 01-23-2022, 06:16 PM
Tabe's Avatar
Tabe Tabe is offline
Chris
Chr.is Ta.bar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Spokane, WA
Posts: 1,410
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss View Post
I get that, and I could almost understand it if it was a 1986 fleer Jordan psa 10 or THE top Lebron or Kobe card. But this is Luka f-ing Doncic. This guy has done nothing. He has won nothing. He has had barely more than a cup of coffee in the NBA.
He's 22. He's done - a lot - more in the NBA than Jordan had at a similar age. It took Jordan 7 seasons to win a title but he was still incredibly popular before that.

I get it - his cards are probably overpriced but the demand is clearly there.
Reply With Quote
  #28  
Old 01-23-2022, 06:31 PM
jingram058's Avatar
jingram058 jingram058 is online now
J@mes In.gram
 
Join Date: Sep 2020
Location: In the past
Posts: 1,851
Default

Why is anything worth what it is, especially cardboard that is easily faked, even encapsulated with a bar code? I damn sure wouldn't base my portfolio on cards unless I planned to cash out before all this stuff crashes.
__________________
James Ingram

Successful net54 purchases from/trades with:
Tere1071, Bocabirdman, 8thEastVB, GoldenAge50s, IronHorse2130, Kris19, G1911, dacubfan, sflayank, Smanzari, bocca001, eliminator, ejstel, lampertb, rjackson44, Jason19th, Cmvorce, CobbSpikedMe, Harliduck, donmuth, HercDriver, Huck, theshleps

Completed 1962 Topps
Completed 1969 Topps deckle edge
Completed 1953 Bowman color & b/w
*** Raw cards only, daddyo! ***
Reply With Quote
  #29  
Old 01-23-2022, 06:33 PM
Delray Vintage Delray Vintage is offline
Bob
member
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 145
Default Do not get it either

In the context of today’s stock market tech valuations, NFT’s, crypto, I understand how Donik and the like sell for astronomical valuations. Ruth will always be valuable and most of these modern created rarities will collapse. To the modern collectors these cards are worth it, but having seen numerous bubbles in my 67 years this sure looks like one. Print a rookie card, paste a piece of a uniform and an autograph and suddenly it is a million dollar card? I am sure there are people out there who can justify it as the new way of collecting. To me it spells B-U-B-B-L-E.
Reply With Quote
  #30  
Old 01-23-2022, 06:34 PM
Delray Vintage Delray Vintage is offline
Bob
member
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 145
Default Do not get it either

In the context of today’s stock market tech valuations, NFT’s, crypto, I understand how Donic and the like sell for astronomical valuations. Ruth will always be valuable and most of these modern created rarities will collapse. To the modern collectors these cards are worth it, but having seen numerous bubbles in my 67 years this sure looks like one. Print a rookie card, paste a piece of a uniform and an autograph and suddenly it is a million dollar card? I am sure there are people out there who can justify it as the new way of collecting. To me it spells B-U-B-B-L-E.
Reply With Quote
  #31  
Old 01-23-2022, 07:34 PM
BobC BobC is offline
Bob C.
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Ohio
Posts: 3,275
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Delray Vintage View Post
In the context of today’s stock market tech valuations, NFT’s, crypto, I understand how Donic and the like sell for astronomical valuations. Ruth will always be valuable and most of these modern created rarities will collapse. To the modern collectors these cards are worth it, but having seen numerous bubbles in my 67 years this sure looks like one. Print a rookie card, paste a piece of a uniform and an autograph and suddenly it is a million dollar card? I am sure there are people out there who can justify it as the new way of collecting. To me it spells B-U-B-B-L-E.
Exactly, next year how many new 1/1 Luca Donic auto/GU cards will they turn out? And the year after that, and the year after that, and so on.
Reply With Quote
  #32  
Old 01-23-2022, 08:03 PM
Eric72's Avatar
Eric72 Eric72 is offline
Eric Perry
Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Philadelphia Suburbs
Posts: 3,405
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by BobC View Post
Exactly, next year how many new 1/1 Luca Donic auto/GU cards will they turn out? And the year after that, and the year after that, and so on.
Depends. Signed by him or Lulu?
__________________
Eric Perry

Currently collecting:
T206 (132/524)
1956 Topps Baseball (189/342)

"You can observe a lot by just watching."
- Yogi Berra

Last edited by Eric72; 01-23-2022 at 08:03 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #33  
Old 01-23-2022, 08:16 PM
Gorditadogg Gorditadogg is offline
Al Stein
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2019
Location: Chicago
Posts: 1,871
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by BobC View Post
Exactly, next year how many new 1/1 Luca Donic auto/GU cards will they turn out? And the year after that, and the year after that, and so on.
They are not making any more Doncic rookie cards, Bob.

Buying cards of active players is definitely speculative and I guess Luka cards could have a "bubble" if his career doesn't pan out. But overall the basketball card market is pretty solid, the game is popular and the fanbase is global and growing.



Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Reply With Quote
  #34  
Old 01-23-2022, 09:38 PM
BobC BobC is offline
Bob C.
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Ohio
Posts: 3,275
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gorditadogg View Post
They are not making any more Doncic rookie cards, Bob.

Buying cards of active players is definitely speculative and I guess Luka cards could have a "bubble" if his career doesn't pan out. But overall the basketball card market is pretty solid, the game is popular and the fanbase is global and growing.



Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Aaahhh, didn't realize they were talking only about a rookie card. Still makes no sense for that kind of price though.
Reply With Quote
  #35  
Old 01-24-2022, 12:09 AM
babraham babraham is offline
Brian
Bri@n Abra.ham
 
Join Date: Oct 2021
Location: AZ
Posts: 522
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Delray Vintage View Post
Print a rookie card, paste a piece of a uniform and an autograph and suddenly it is a million dollar card? I am sure there are people out there who can justify it as the new way of collecting. To me it spells B-U-B-B-L-E.
+1
Reply With Quote
  #36  
Old 01-24-2022, 12:10 AM
babraham babraham is offline
Brian
Bri@n Abra.ham
 
Join Date: Oct 2021
Location: AZ
Posts: 522
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eric72 View Post
So, let them pay exorbitant prices for the Golden Ticket Rainbow Shimmer Ultrafractor of what's-his-name.
Nice! The Rainbow Shimmer is my favorite variation too.
The extra sparkle means more $$.

Reply With Quote
  #37  
Old 01-24-2022, 12:43 AM
drcy's Avatar
drcy drcy is offline
David Ru.dd Cycl.eback
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 3,466
Default

Long-term value versus short-term value
Reply With Quote
  #38  
Old 01-24-2022, 02:32 AM
Gorditadogg Gorditadogg is offline
Al Stein
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2019
Location: Chicago
Posts: 1,871
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by babraham View Post
Nice! The Rainbow Shimmer is my favorite variation too.

The extra sparkle means more $$.



Naw. Much better to spend exorbitant amounts on 100-year-old cards of what's-his-name because his name is spelled wrong.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Reply With Quote
  #39  
Old 01-24-2022, 07:17 AM
Exhibitman's Avatar
Exhibitman Exhibitman is offline
Ad@m W@r$h@w
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Beautiful Downtown Burbank
Posts: 13,044
Default

Basketball has been an absolutely brutal market for much of the year. Prices are down 50% or more since they peaked in 2020. Yet the cards that have held their gains the best are the older superstars: Russell, Chamberlain, Alcindor, etc. I think the same will be true of other sports' cards.

One thing that hasn't been discussed are the altered and counterfeit modern cards (and holders). I think we already have experienced a wave of modern card alteration that the TPGs of choice (PSA, Beckett) for modern just do not do a good job of detecting, and we are at the start of the great wave of modern card counterfeiting. Some of the reprints of old-tech modern RCs (like 86 Fleer Jordan) are really, really good and are hard to detect unless you know exactly what to look for.

There's also the question of whether any of these buyers are in it for more than a short term gain or bragging rights among people who are dabbling in the hobby and will readily move on to vintage game cartridges or whatever is the next thing to catch their fancy. Does anyone really think that a Luka Doncic card will inspire the same "from my cold, dead hand" collector mentality as a Ruth or Gehrig RC?

The biggest issue I have with modern is that LeBron James, Tom Brady and Mike Trout are unicorns--Wally Joyner, Kevin Maas and Gregg Jefferies are the norm--but the modern RCs are priced within a matter of weeks as if every prospect is a James or Brady level talent. They are also abundant in top grades, as we see with the Jordan RC, and very volatile; just ask the schmucks who paid over $700K for that card and watched prices drop by 50% in a few months. Buying and selling modern seems like a game of speculative hot potato and I believe that whoever is left with the card at the end is gonna get burned. Vintage has definitely taken some major price leaps forward in the last several months but relative to modern seems a better deal. A Foxx RC sells for a fraction of a Doncic RC? W.T.F.
__________________
Read my blog; it will make all your dreams come true.

https://adamstevenwarshaw.substack.com/

Or not...

Last edited by Exhibitman; 01-24-2022 at 07:32 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #40  
Old 01-24-2022, 10:11 AM
Snapolit1's Avatar
Snapolit1 Snapolit1 is online now
Ste.ve Na.polit.ano
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 5,761
Default

Height of insanity.

https://goldin.co/item/2020-bowman-c...asson-dom5w961

https://yanksgoyard.com/2022/01/23/y...ight-comments/
Reply With Quote
  #41  
Old 01-24-2022, 10:12 AM
BobbyStrawberry's Avatar
BobbyStrawberry BobbyStrawberry is online now
mĒttHǝɯ h0uℊℌ
Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2020
Location: USA
Posts: 2,297
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Exhibitman View Post
the modern RCs are priced within a matter of weeks as if every prospect is a James or Brady level talent
Yep. I would bet there are quite a few disappointed Zion Williamson (aka Greg Oden 2.0) "investors" out there atm...
__________________
_
Successful transactions with: Natswin2019, ParachromBleu, Cmount76, theuclakid, tiger8mush, shammus, jcmtiger, oldjudge, coolshemp, joejo20, Blunder19, ibechillin33, t206kid, helfrich91, Dashcol, philliesfan, alaskapaul3, Natedog, Kris19, frankbmd, tonyo, Baseball Rarities, Thromdog, T2069bk, t206fix, jakebeckleyoldeagleeye, Casey2296, rdeversole, brianp-beme, seablaster, twalk, qed2190, Gorditadogg, LuckyLarry
Reply With Quote
  #42  
Old 01-24-2022, 10:39 AM
steve B steve B is offline
Steve Birmingham
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: eastern Mass.
Posts: 8,087
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tabe View Post
He's 22. He's done - a lot - more in the NBA than Jordan had at a similar age. It took Jordan 7 seasons to win a title but he was still incredibly popular before that.

I get it - his cards are probably overpriced but the demand is clearly there.
Like what?

I just went and had a look at the stats, and he's not really even close.
Jordan led the league in points two of his first three years.
Led in ppg his third year.

And one of those years was nowhere near complete. Injuries? Maybe, I forget.

Doncic hasn't even cleared 3000 points in any of his three years.

Steals, Jordan was around 200/year
Doncic hasn't even reached 100/ year


That's not exactly the sort of dominance that makes a 300K gamble more than a very long shot
Reply With Quote
  #43  
Old 01-24-2022, 11:20 AM
Gorditadogg Gorditadogg is offline
Al Stein
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2019
Location: Chicago
Posts: 1,871
Default

Modern cards are a whole lot more volatile because the players' stories are not written yet. Looking at individual cards the gains are higher and the losses too. I think for modern you need to look at a basket of cards and see how the value in total has moved over time. Otherwise it's hard to get a true picture.

For example, 10 years ago I bought two rookie cards for $75 each, one Amare Stoudemire and one Yao Ming. Amare is now worth $25 while Yao just sold for $900. These are two extremes but overall I would guess that basketball card values have increased about 5 times in the last 10 years. A little bit better than baseball maybe, but not much.

But I am more confident in the basketball card market than baseball. Basketball has a global fanbase, with total fans 2-4 times baseball. The average basketball fan is much younger than baseball, and basketball popularity has been increasing over the last several years as baseball popularity has declined.

I think the whole sports card market could go through a correction as part of an overall economic pullback, but I really don't see basketball on the leading edge of it.
Reply With Quote
  #44  
Old 01-24-2022, 12:00 PM
Peter_Spaeth's Avatar
Peter_Spaeth Peter_Spaeth is online now
Peter Spaeth
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 30,265
Default

I hope this doesn't come out sounding wrong, but is there perhaps a bit of the Great White Hope thing underlying some of his popularity?

https://theshadowleague.com/luka-don...n-waiting-for/
__________________
My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at
https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/

He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt.
Reply With Quote
  #45  
Old 01-24-2022, 12:57 PM
drcy's Avatar
drcy drcy is offline
David Ru.dd Cycl.eback
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 3,466
Default

Anyone who's collected for decades is keenly aware of the history of fleetingly hot prospect and rookie cards. Pete Incavilia, Eric Davis, Daryl Strawberry, Joe Charmineau, Ki-Jana Carter.

I hope these folks know their history.
Reply With Quote
  #46  
Old 01-24-2022, 01:06 PM
Gorditadogg Gorditadogg is offline
Al Stein
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2019
Location: Chicago
Posts: 1,871
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth View Post
I hope this doesn't come out sounding wrong, but is there perhaps a bit of the Great White Hope thing underlying some of his popularity?



https://theshadowleague.com/luka-don...n-waiting-for/
Absolutely it helps his popularity. Along with Jokic two of the NBA's top players are now European.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Reply With Quote
  #47  
Old 01-24-2022, 01:36 PM
BobbyStrawberry's Avatar
BobbyStrawberry BobbyStrawberry is online now
mĒttHǝɯ h0uℊℌ
Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2020
Location: USA
Posts: 2,297
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gorditadogg View Post
Absolutely it helps his popularity. Along with Jokic two of the NBA's top players are now European.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Haven't Jokic and Doncic always been European?
__________________
_
Successful transactions with: Natswin2019, ParachromBleu, Cmount76, theuclakid, tiger8mush, shammus, jcmtiger, oldjudge, coolshemp, joejo20, Blunder19, ibechillin33, t206kid, helfrich91, Dashcol, philliesfan, alaskapaul3, Natedog, Kris19, frankbmd, tonyo, Baseball Rarities, Thromdog, T2069bk, t206fix, jakebeckleyoldeagleeye, Casey2296, rdeversole, brianp-beme, seablaster, twalk, qed2190, Gorditadogg, LuckyLarry
Reply With Quote
  #48  
Old 01-24-2022, 01:56 PM
Snapolit1's Avatar
Snapolit1 Snapolit1 is online now
Ste.ve Na.polit.ano
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 5,761
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by drcy View Post
Anyone who's collected for decades is keenly aware of the history of fleetingly hot prospect and rookie cards. Pete Incavilia, Eric Davis, Daryl Strawberry, Joe Charmineau, Ki-Jana Carter.

I hope these folks know their history.
But these guys at least were in the major leagues. People are paying $150,000 for a Jasson Dominguez card, who is on the bottom rung of professional baseball. Yikes.
Reply With Quote
  #49  
Old 01-24-2022, 01:58 PM
Gorditadogg Gorditadogg is offline
Al Stein
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2019
Location: Chicago
Posts: 1,871
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry View Post
Haven't Jokic and Doncic always been European?
Hah. Actually there are 3, Giannis Antetokounmpo was born and raised in Greece. The point is the diversity is good for the game, it gives fans more to relate to.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Reply With Quote
  #50  
Old 01-24-2022, 02:41 PM
BobbyStrawberry's Avatar
BobbyStrawberry BobbyStrawberry is online now
mĒttHǝɯ h0uℊℌ
Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2020
Location: USA
Posts: 2,297
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gorditadogg View Post
Hah. Actually there are 3, Giannis Antetokounmpo was born and raised in Greece. The point is the diversity is good for the game, it gives fans more to relate to.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Oh yeah, I agree. I'd probably mention Joel Embiid in that conversation too. (Not European but Int'l - raised in Cameroon)
__________________
_
Successful transactions with: Natswin2019, ParachromBleu, Cmount76, theuclakid, tiger8mush, shammus, jcmtiger, oldjudge, coolshemp, joejo20, Blunder19, ibechillin33, t206kid, helfrich91, Dashcol, philliesfan, alaskapaul3, Natedog, Kris19, frankbmd, tonyo, Baseball Rarities, Thromdog, T2069bk, t206fix, jakebeckleyoldeagleeye, Casey2296, rdeversole, brianp-beme, seablaster, twalk, qed2190, Gorditadogg, LuckyLarry

Last edited by BobbyStrawberry; 01-24-2022 at 02:43 PM. Reason: Phone
Reply With Quote
Reply



Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Simply Amazing! David Atkatz Autograph Forum- Primarily Sports 2 11-04-2013 02:57 PM
Put Simply Archive Net54baseball Vintage (WWII & Older) Baseball Cards & New Member Introductions 8 01-09-2009 12:11 PM
Simply reprehensible Archive Net54baseball Vintage (WWII & Older) Baseball Cards & New Member Introductions 3 02-01-2002 02:33 PM


All times are GMT -6. The time now is 04:06 PM.


ebay GSB