The future of Shohei Ohtani

[Peter_Spaeth]

Another Angel with some interesting possibilities.

Does he:

Continue as he is for another 5+ years guaranteeing himself first ballot HOF and a unique place in baseball history?

Continue as he is for only a couple more years and then settle in as either a pitcher or everyday player but not both and finish out a still distinguished HOF career?

Fall off drastically not too far into the future from the toll on his body?

Something else?

Where do you see this unique and fabulous player ending up?

[bnorth]

Goes down as the GOAT in baseball.

[mrreality68]

I think he will sign a long term contract, stay on the West Coast (With Dodgers the Favorite), and Pitch 4 to 5 years max and be the DH now and the rest of his career.

[packs]

At 28, I think he has another 5 years of peak performance before he starts to deteriorate. How he moves forward as a player will depend on what deteriorates first. Is it his arm and he becomes a DH? Or does the league figure him out as a hitter and he continues as a starter?

I obviously think he loses some luster if he can't play both sides of the game. Not sure he's worth half a billion as solely a hitter or pitcher, or if he'll continue to be a HOF caliber player at just one of those positions.

[Seven]

I hate to be a pessimist in this situation, but Ohtani is one injury away from never returning to this form again. What he's doing is remarkable, and I hope he will be able to keep up some semblance of this production, but I do not think it's likely.

It seems, more and more nowadays, that players bodies break down faster. Maybe due to the hyper specialization of sports nowadays, or the fact players are pushing themselves to their physical limits when it comes to pitching and hitting. I can see Ohtani maintaining this level of dominance for another two to three seasons before his body suffers the same fate. He might have to choose at that time what he wants to do more, hit or pitch.

I do not think he becomes the "GOAT" as I think that any notion, of that conversation, is absurd. You cannot possibly compare a player today to a player of 100 years ago. The world is an entirely different place. Furthermore the only way you could possibly measure that would be era adjusted statistics, which even then is spotty, because they are not infallible. I however, think, he's one of the most talented players to ever do it, certainly one of the most versatile, and I think we should all leave it at that.

[packs]

I don't think there's a real path to eclipsing Babe Ruth. Even on a season to season basis he'll never do what Ruth did.

But I think there's something to be said for his overall skill in today's game where pitching and hitting are probably at their peaks in terms of difficulty. What he's doing now is otherworldly but not the best you've ever seen at either skill.

[mrreality68]

of interest

The Giants Just drafted #16 a player out of High School that Pitches and Plays first base.
He is Bryce Eldridge and is listed as a 2 way player.

[packs]

They drafted Reggie Crawford last year too.

I remember when the Rays had really high hopes for Brendan McKay but it didn't work out.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

of interest

The Giants Just drafted #16 a player out of High School that Pitches and Plays first base.
He is Bryce Eldridge and is listed as a 2 way player.

I'll check Blowout, his superduperfractor is probably selling for 100K already.

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by Seven

I hate to be a pessimist in this situation, but Ohtani is one injury away from never returning to this form again. What he's doing is remarkable, and I hope he will be able to keep up some semblance of this production, but I do not think it's likely.

It seems, more and more nowadays, that players bodies break down faster. Maybe due to the hyper specialization of sports nowadays, or the fact players are pushing themselves to their physical limits when it comes to pitching and hitting. I can see Ohtani maintaining this level of dominance for another two to three seasons before his body suffers the same fate. He might have to choose at that time what he wants to do more, hit or pitch.

I do not think he becomes the "GOAT" as I think that any notion, of that conversation, is absurd. You cannot possibly compare a player today to a player of 100 years ago. The world is an entirely different place. Furthermore the only way you could possibly measure that would be era adjusted statistics, which even then is spotty, because they are not infallible. I however, think, he's one of the most talented players to ever do it, certainly one of the most versatile, and I think we should all leave it at that.

Agree with most of this. Also not to be pessimistic, but I hate to bring up the obvious fact that if Ohtani gets this huge contract everybody is predicting for him based his recent production, he's going to perpetually be a ligament strain away from being a Half a Billion Dollar DH. Essentially, peak level J.D. Martinez.

I do think if he stays relatively injury free for the rest of this season, and socks away a 2nd MVP Award, he's pretty much a HOF lock, just based on his ground-breaking achievements thus far.

[packs]

I don't know if he'd be a lock. His pitching stats are good for what they are but miniscule in terms of HOF caliber. He has 35 career wins and is already 28 years old. I don't know how realistic more than 100 wins would be if he continues to split time as a hitter.

He'd have to hit 30 home runs for the next 11 plus seasons to reach 500 as well. No shot at 3,000 hits.

If he can't do both at a high level for four or five more seasons, I'm not sure he's sniffing the HOF.

[doug.goodman]

Originally Posted by bnorth

Goes down as the GOAT in baseball.

I'm going to read that smiley face as sarcasm.

When he approaches his 94th career pitching win (and gets 65 in a 3 year span), and his 714th homer, and raises his career batting average, slugging percentage and OPS to higher than his current 2023 career best numbers, THEN we can talk about him being the greatest of all time.

I get it, he's really good, but come on...

Doug "Mark Fidrych was great too" Goodman

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by doug.goodman

I'm going to read that smiley face as sarcasm.

When he approaches his 94th career pitching win (and gets 65 in a 3 year span), and his 714th homer, and raises his career batting average, slugging percentage and OPS to higher than his current 2023 career best numbers, THEN we can talk about him being the greatest of all time.

I get it, he's really good, but come on...

Doug "Mark Fidrych was great too" Goodman

Well said Doug. If he keeps going he should be in the HOF and he will be know has a Dynamic and exciting player. He may go down as one of the most popular and famous players but long long way to go to be the GOAT

He is unique and great in his own way and will and look forward to the next 5 plus years with excitement. He is must watch Tv

[RCMcKenzie]

He has to continue to pitch. If he's just going to DH, then he's chasing Harold Baines and Chili Davis as the greatest DH of all time.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by RCMcKenzie

He has to continue to pitch. If he's just going to DH, then he's chasing Harold Baines and Chili Davis as the greatest DH of all time.

I agree he does have to continue to pitch several more years before converting over. And then wow 10 plus years of pitching and then the extra years of hitting. It would be truly legendary
But regardless I think he is better than Blaine’s of Davis (no disrespect to them) so I do not believe that is a good comparison.

And in my opinion Edgar Martinez and David Ortiz are considered the 2 greatest DHs’

And as an aside Othani went deep again and is on pace for 58 homers while still betting over .300

[todeen]

He can't play OF until his arm heals, just like Bryce Harper. So now he must decide if he will strictly DH, or get surgery and try to rush back like Harper. Bad timing either way for teams looking at signing him.

While on a new team lets say he opts for surgery; he could be like Acuna, injured and not playing when the team wins a WS.

As for salary, his future earnings have definitely decreased. If they were at $500m, a team knows they need to invest in an injured player. Would Mariners do that? I don't think so. So now his West Coast options are Dodgers, Padres, Giants. I agree Padres and Giants are risky if Ohtani has a win now mentality. Padres are about to be torn down. So then that leaves Dodgers. Would Dodgers offer $400m? I don't think so.

Part of the reason for Dodgers recent success is because they have acted like the Cardinals, and they don't sign long term contracts with players who will become beached whales with 4 yrs remaining. I would say Dodgers offer 5 years, $30m, $150m guaranteed, with incentives for more money that could bring yearly salaries up to $50m if he reaches 40 HR, 100 RBI, AS, MVP, GG, if he pitches again, etc etc. If Ohtani opts for surgery, Dodgers know they have invested $30m for one year of nothing.

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[Peter_Spaeth]

He has been huge of course in the card world. What percentage on average do his rookie cards drop now?

[bk400]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

He has been huge of course in the card world. What percentage on average do his rookie cards drop now?

Doesn't seem to be a lot of unusual selling pressure in his higher grade rookie cards so far. Then again, people are still spending $150 on Wander Franco cards over the past 12 hours.

[Shoeless Moe]

He definitely will sign for less now. Not even a question. If he goes from being a 2 way player, and significant draw because of that, to now an injury risk, granted a very good position player, or worse just a DH, no way he gets what he would have gotten.

Unless one of 2 last place New York teams do what they usually do, overspend and lose.

But he has said he wants to win (toss out both NY) so only East Coast team I see him going to is Baltimore (maybe Boston), but more likely he'll land on the West Coast. 3-4-5 teams equal to or better than NY teams so why head East. Doesn't even make sense to consider, both NY teams 2-3 years (minimum) away from being competitive (WS bound)again, in regards to the divisions they are in too.

[packs]

Originally Posted by Shoeless Moe

He definitely will sign for less now. Not even a question. If he goes from being a 2 way player, and significant draw because of that, to now an injury risk, just a very good outfielder, or even worse just a DH, no way he gets what he would have gotten.

Unless one of 2 last place New York teams do what they usually do, overspend and lose.

But he has said he wants to win (toss out both NY) so only East Coast team I see him going to is Baltimore, but more likely he'll land on the West Coast. 4-5 teams equal to or better than NY teams so why head East. Doesn't even make sense to consider, both NY teams 2-3 years (minimum) away from being competitive (WS bound)again, in regards to the divisions they are in too.

How can you say both NY teams are far off from competing when the offseason hasn't even happened yet? The Yankees were playing in the ALCS just last year. And when you're talking about the Yankees you aren't talking about a team who has to see if prospects pan out. This offseason has a large free agent pool of quality players. This is just something people who don't like the Yankees say about them.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

He has been huge of course in the card world. What percentage on average do his rookie cards drop now?

There's a Blowout poll about Ohtani card price changes.

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1566180

Spoiler alert, most people so far think 20-40%, with a bunch of people 0-20%.

[packs]

The last time his market tanked I managed to pick this up for $250. I'd do it again:

[bk400]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

There's a Blowout poll about Ohtani card price changes.

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1566180

Spoiler alert, most people so far think 20-40%, with a bunch of people 0-20%.

Interesting poll -- Should be fun to see how the market speaks over time. If he never throws another pitch, he's still a guy who won (assuming he wins this year) two MVPs as a two-way player, which as we all know hasn't been done in three generations. Juan Gonzales, Dale Murphy and Roger Maris are the 3 two-time MVPs not in the Hall. Granted, they have pretty strong records. But they didn't also pitch.

If Ohtani's downside as a player from here is 5 years as a poor man's Ichiro -- plus 20-35 home runs per year -- he's probably still a first ballot hall of famer.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by bk400

Interesting poll -- Should be fun to see how the market speaks over time. If he never throws another pitch, he's still a guy who won (assuming he wins this year) two MVPs as a two-way player, which as we all know hasn't been done in three generations. Juan Gonzales, Dale Murphy and Roger Maris are the 3 two-time MVPs not in the Hall. Granted, they have pretty strong records. But they didn't also pitch.

If Ohtani's downside as a player from here is 5 years as a poor man's Ichiro -- plus 20-35 home runs per year -- he's probably still a first ballot hall of famer.

Sports Colectors Daily doesn't think the injury should have much impact on Ohtani's card prices. And so far it hasn't.

https://www.sportscollectorsdaily.co...80005-83287939

[Bcwcardz]

What about the Angels? You never know what the hell is going to happen. I heard early on Ohtani was open to a shorter term deal since his pitching arm is recovering. The Angels kind of let him run his own show over there which could be attractive to him. He wants to do what he wants to do with no restrictions.


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[frankbmd]

Whatever happens, I think he will be able to feed his unnamed dog.

[BobbyStrawberry]

And there it is, Dodgers, $700 mil. Wow

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

And there it is, Dodgers, $700 mil. Wow

For only 10 years. Unbelievable.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

And there it is, Dodgers, $700 mil. Wow

Yup. As I was saying. No surprise.

[D. Bergin]

Wow, he must be worth a fortune in marketing to justify that type of spending on a guy who is going to be a DH for most of his career.

As much as some analysts try to gloss over it, he’s also going to spend a good amount of that time on the disabled list, based on his playing history……unless the MLB changes their stance on HGH and other PEDS, in the near future.

On the other hand, Dodgers owners aren’t going broke anytime soon, so might as well role the dice if it helps get them a couple titles over the next 10 years. Hell, for all I know, they might have the infrastructure in place to make their money back, just on TV and marketing deals in Japan.

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

And there it is, Dodgers, $700 mil. Wow

Not completely unexpected, I laughed when people in this thread were stating 320ish for 6-8. There was never a chance he was going for less than 500 million, and a less likely chance it was anyone but the Dodgers.

That said, I didn’t expect the 10 year contract. Thus the 700 with the extra years is logical as they are likely to make 100 back in merch sales by opening day. Waiting to see the contract details as they should be interesting to keep their cap within earth’s atmosphere. Honestly expecting another Bobby Bonilla Day in the lexicon for the next few decades.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by JustinD

Not completely unexpected, I laughed when people in this thread were stating 320ish for 6-8. There was never a chance he was going for less than 500 million, and a less likely chance it was anyone but the Dodgers.

That said, I didn’t expect the 10 year contract. Thus the 700 with the extra years is logical as they are likely to make 100 back in merch sales by opening day. Waiting to see the contract details as they should be interesting to keep their cap within earth’s atmosphere. Honestly expecting another Bobby Bonilla Day in the lexicon for the next few decades.

Apparently a lot of the money is deferred but the details were not yet available from the reports I saw last night.