bad timing and lesson learned

[darwinbulldog]

Last week I was following several lots in the Hunt Auctions live auction. I placed bids on a number of items for which I had a pretty good idea of the value and was outbid on one after another which went for higher than I was expecting (and, importantly, significantly more than the lower end of their Estimated Price Range). I figured I wasn't going to win anything, but when I happened to check back in they were auctioning off one of the later lots that I had followed and put in a placeholder bid for.

It was a 1912 copy of Casey at the Bat. They had posted an estimated range of $2000-$4000, and I didn't have time at that point to look up past auction sales or others currently available so I put in a bid at the current increment and was surprised to win the auction (for a bit less than the low end of the listed estimated range, buyers' premium included).

Then I went to see if I had gotten a bargain and found several other copies of the same item currently available for less than 50% of the bid I had entered. Most of them have since been sold, perhaps after sitting on the shelf for years, so I think I may have accidentally moved the market. Anyway, there are some cheaper copies still on eBay.

My mistake for relying on their posted estimate in the heat of the live auction, but you can go ahead and stick me in a lineup with Marquard, Waddell, Kroh, and all your other favorite rubes. And if one of you was the underbidder and was relying on the same bad information I was, you're welcome.

[Casey2296]

Oh, somewhere in this favoured land the sun is shining bright,
The band is playing somewhere, and somewhere hearts are light;
And somewhere men are laughing, and somewhere children shout,
But there is no joy in Mudville—mighty Casey has struck out.

[Seven]

Originally Posted by darwinbulldog

Last week I was following several lots in the Hunt Auctions live auction. I placed bids on a number of items for which I had a pretty good idea of the value and was outbid on one after another which went for higher than I was expecting (and, importantly, significantly more than the lower end of their Estimated Price Range). I figured I wasn't going to win anything, but when I happened to check back in they were auctioning off one of the later lots that I had followed and put in a placeholder bid for.

It was a 1912 copy of Casey at the Bat. They had posted an estimated range of $2000-$4000, and I didn't have time at that point to look up past auction sales or others currently available so I put in a bid at the current increment and was surprised to win the auction (for a bit less than the low end of the listed estimated range, buyers' premium included).

Then I went to see if I had gotten a bargain and found several other copies of the same item currently available for less than 50% of the bid I had entered. Most of them have since been sold, perhaps after sitting on the shelf for years, so I think I may have accidentally moved the market. Anyway, there are some cheaper copies still on eBay.

My mistake for relying on their posted estimate in the heat of the live auction, but you can go ahead and stick me in a lineup with Marquard, Waddell, Kroh, and all your other favorite rubes. And if one of you was the underbidder and was relying on the same bad information I was, you're welcome.

If there is one thing I have learned, especially over the past year, it's I've never regretted the purchases I've made, I've only regretted the ones I didn't. Is it unfortunate when you overpay? Of course. It happens though, and you really wanted this copy of Casey at the Bat! It's yours now!

What stings are the purchases you hold off on, only to see the price shoot up, or something like it never come across the page again at that price. It happened to me twice here. Couldn't justify spending the Money at the time on a Berk Ross Mantle, only for it to climb in price. To the point where it just sold on ebay for over 3K when I could've gotten it on here for close to half of that, back in June. Live and Learn. Enjoy your copy of Casey at the Bat!

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

Oh, somewhere in this favoured land the sun is shining bright,
The band is playing somewhere, and somewhere hearts are light;
And somewhere men are laughing, and somewhere children shout,
But there is no joy in Mudville—mighty Casey has struck out.

Laughing through my tears here. Your apt words sting.

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by Seven

If there is one thing I have learned, especially over the past year, it's I've never regretted the purchases I've made, I've only regretted the ones I didn't. Is it unfortunate when you overpay? Of course. It happens though, and you really wanted this copy of Casey at the Bat! It's yours now!

What stings are the purchases you hold off on, only to see the price shoot up, or something like it never come across the page again at that price. It happened to me twice here. Couldn't justify spending the Money at the time on a Berk Ross Mantle, only for it to climb in price. To the point where it just sold on ebay for over 3K when I could've gotten it on here for close to half of that, back in June. Live and Learn. Enjoy your copy of Casey at the Bat!

Normally I'd agree, but as long as those cheaper copies are still readily available I can confirm that this is at least one purchase I regret, as much as I still love the poem.

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by darwinbulldog

Normally I'd agree, but as long as those cheaper copies are still readily available I can confirm that this is at least one purchase I regret, as much as I still love the poem.

Well buy one of the cheap ones too, then ypu can dollar-cost average.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

[steve B]

I think you did ok.

Its sort of a kids book, despite being popular with adults, and those are often very condition sensitive.
One of the Ebay copies isn't in great condition. Another of the cheaper ones is on ABE books and is taped together. Thinning the field of potential lower priced copies.

Book pricing is a wild ride, one I'm sometimes amazed the old book sellers don't take advantage of. I like old technology books, and similar things. When I look some of them up, I'll usually see a seller who specializes asking a very high price, while sellers who specialize in other sorts of books asking a much more reasonable or even bargain price.
If seller A is asking $200, and sellers B,C,and D are between 7.99 and 25.00 I'm always puzzled why seller A doesn't simply buy up the other three copies.

[swarmee]

Originally Posted by steve B

If seller A is asking $200, and sellers B,C,and D are between 7.99 and 25.00 I'm always puzzled why seller A doesn't simply buy up the other three copies.

Same reason Dean's Cards doesn't buy up the cards of their competitors. There are no buyers at $200, if there are no buyers at $7-25. Cornering the market only makes sense on in-demand items. Why tie up all your capital in dead stock?

[BabyRuth]

Someone once said, winning an auction just means you were willing to pay more than anyone else.

[hcv123]

I will weigh in on the "estimates" part and FULLY agree that estimates in a best case scenario a houses best guess as to value. As buyers, we are always responsible for our own due diligence. When doing mine, more times than not I find MY estimate different from the auction houses - sometimes higher - sometimes lower. I almost always bid according to mine (rare exceptions would be items I think I may not see again or for a long time that aren't too far outside my estimate).

[Huysmans]

Originally Posted by steve B

If seller A is asking $200, and sellers B,C,and D are between 7.99 and 25.00 I'm always puzzled why seller A doesn't simply buy up the other three copies.

I'd be much more puzzled by the fact that if seller A is now cognizant that his copy is ridiculously overpriced - as the much cheaper copies aren't even selling... why wouldn't he then lower the price??? Does he actually WANT to sell?? Or just live in some delusional world where he might eventually get his unrealistic price, even if it takes years... a decade.... or multiple lifetimes?

[Kevin]

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

Well buy one of the cheap ones too, then ypu can dollar-cost average.

This has been my father's mantra with stocks for years. My carpool buddy, sort of thinks he's hip, 40 year old , still dresses in skater gear bought bit coin at $800. He had one bit coin and discussed it a lot. Now one thing to know about Dave, he is real tight with a buck. Cheap AF. We'd drive in and he would give me a check for $83.17 for tolls and gas. (Round up or round down, right?)

Anyway, bitcoin dropped to $300 and he was really upset. I told him "buy another one. You'll have 2 for $550". He didn't do it and he brings it up from time to time.

So...don't regret the things you purchase. I was having a bit of buyer's remorse last month. I was checking out this Cy Young on eBay with a weird stamp. Card was real beat up, but the seller had 7000 stars, the minimum bid was $280. My 4 year old son was distracting me at the time, I placed the bid. Completely forgot about it. It was the first bid, obviously there would be others in the week. Well...imagine my surprise when I got an email looking for $318.

Anyway...good call being happy with the purchase.

[Koufax32fan]

Originally Posted by Kevin

This has been my father's mantra with stocks for years. My carpool buddy, sort of thinks he's hip, 40 year old , still dresses in skater gear bought bit coin at $800. He had one bit coin and discussed it a lot.
......

Anyway, bitcoin dropped to $300 and he was really upset. I told him "buy another one. You'll have 2 for $550". He didn't do it and he brings it up from time to time.

A bit off topic, but have you ever actually checked out the price of Bitcoin? It hit $800 in December 2016 and has never been priced lower since. Over $19,000 in December 2017. The price then slid to around $3,100 in December 2018 and is now trading over $18,600. So, I don't know how your carpool buddy was able to buy it at $800 and watch the price drop to $300 - that just never happened.

Full disclosure - I am not a fan of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. I think blockchain technology is amazing with so many uses, I just won't put money into something when someone I don't know can simply "mine" more of it. I must admit, lots of others have made lots of money on it - just not me.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by Huysmans

I'd be much more puzzled by the fact that if seller A is now cognizant that his copy is ridiculously overpriced - as the much cheaper copies aren't even selling... why wouldn't he then lower the price??? Does he actually WANT to sell?? Or just live in some delusional world where he might eventually get his unrealistic price, even if it takes years... a decade.... or multiple lifetimes?

I've been seller A a few times, as well as being seller B. It's not a matter of being delusional, but one of having the right venue/customers to sell something.

The bike shop I was running needed inventory. We did very well with ladies 3 speeds in any color except black.
I'd buy them at yard sales for anywhere from $3-$20. A quick once over for adjustments, and usually a couple new tires, and we could turn them over very quickly for 75-100.
Shops farther in town towards Boston could get more, an we could have too, but a quick flip was usually best.
I would rarely turn one down unless it needed a ton of work. (And even then... A rusty frame with a nice set of wheels and the original leather seat in good condition would still be a buy at $20

I've also sold stuff to dealers, across a wide variety of collectibles, probably for too little. But they usually had people that bought that sort of stuff while I
don't. I made money, they made money, everyone was happy.