SPORTS CARD RADIO (anonymus PSA "insider")

[benjulmag]

Originally Posted by slidekellyslide

Are the whales ready to reholder thousands of cards with a new company? Will the new company start a registry? They would have no reason to jump if it doesn't because it's about the competition and the number on the slab. It's going to be so much easier to accept "conservation and alteration".

Call me a cynic, but there is already a certain acceptance of fraud in this hobby. How many years in a row can the FBI arrest or hand out subpoenas at the National? The fake T206 autographs are already in the rear view mirror. Mastro, Allen and Rogers all went to prison, did that deter PWCC, Moser, SSS and the probably hundreds of other card doctors from forging onward with their fraudulent activity? Nope 2 out of 3 of them were set up at the National pretending it was business as usual.

The hobby's white knight, the fiercest opponent of the fraudsters in the hobby who claimed his employment as PWCC counsel would be the best thing for the hobby is already minimizing PWCC's involvement in fraud that likely dwarfs Mastro and Allen.

Yeah, things will change, but not how we want them to.

Unless and until there is a grading option that can detect expert alterations, I agree not much is likely to change. But, and this is perhaps where we differ, I believe such a grading option is inevitable. The reason -- if done properly it could make some people very rich. Financial incentive is very powerful, and here I believe it is viable.

I know for a fact some people are looking at it very seriously and significant sums are being raised as startup capital. And if the new model works and alterations can be detected, how can the floodgates not be opened? The money required to effectively market the new company and expose the IMO staggering percentage of vintage high grade alterations will be insignificant compared to the money required for the startup.

Imagine the following. Once this happens this new company is set up at the National with a red portrait T206 Cobb in its "8" holder, and next to it is a PSA "8" of the same card. And next to both of these cards is last month's Forbes's magazine article heralding this new TPG and reciting statistics that out of a random selection of 454 T206 PSA "8s", 78% have been exposed by this new grading method as altered in one fashion or another and placed in "A" slabs. Which "8" T206 red portrait Cobb card do you think would sell for more at that juncture, the one in the PSA holder or the one in the new TPG holder?

The whales can yell, kick, scream all they want, but that will not silence the market forces at play here.

[slidekellyslide]

I hope you are right, Corey.

[barrysloate]

Originally Posted by benjulmag

Unless and until there is a grading option that can detect expert alterations, I agree not much is likely to change. But, and this is perhaps where we differ, I believe such a grading option is inevitable. The reason -- if done properly it could make some people very rich. Financial incentive is very powerful, and here I believe it is viable.

I know for a fact some people are looking at it very seriously and significant sums are being raised as startup capital. And if the new model works and alterations can be detected, how can the floodgates not be opened? The money required to effectively market the new company and expose the IMO staggering percentage of vintage high grade alterations will be insignificant compared to the money required for the startup.

Imagine the following. Once this happens this new company is set up at the National with a red portrait T206 Cobb in its "8" holder, and next to it is a PSA "8" of the same card. And next to both of these cards is last month's Forbes's magazine article heralding this new TPG and reciting statistics that out of a random selection of 454 T206 PSA "8s", 78% have been exposed by this new grading method as altered in one fashion or another and placed in "A" slabs. Which "8" T206 red portrait Cobb card do you think would sell for more at that juncture, the one in the PSA holder or the one in the new TPG holder?

The whales can yell, kick, scream all they want, but that will not silence the market forces at play here.

This is almost exactly what I was about to post, nearly word for word. We are definitely on the same wavelength.

Collectors can perceive their own collections any way they want, and if they feel that if the label says it's an 8, case closed, that's fine. But there's a huge problem with it: nearly every collector reaches a day of reckoning when it's time to sell. And at that point it's irrelevant what they think of their cards, as that burden falls solely on prospective buyers.

And when the technology is employed to detect the altered cards, there will be unaltered cards that will set record prices, and a pile of damaged goods which will sell for ten cents on the dollar. Right now it's nearly impossible to distinguish the good from the bad, so a card labeled 8 will sell for an 8 price. But if you knew for sure the 8 was altered, you wouldn't pay anywhere near market value for it.

And if there is any doubt that such technology will be implemented, let me ask you this: is there any area of our lives that isn't being affected by technology? So you know darn well this is going to happen. We don't know when, but I guarantee the new technology will eventually be the standard for this industry.