The Depression of 2008

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Posted By: barrysloate

Bruce- any time Nicholl is available for a nickel, please don't hesitate to call me first.

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Posted By: LetsGoBucs

"We spend more per pupil than any country in the world." WRONG as to California, which ranks lower than a lot of underdeveloped nations. As for teacher's unions (and no, I'm not in one)- that's not the problem. The problem is putting inept teachers in administrative positions and over-funding those. Teachers remain the most important profession which is grossly underpaid.
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Since I'm often wrong I thought I'd look up the actual numbers instead of relying on my often faulty memory.

On this occasion I believe that I'm correct. I used OECD data through 2005 and overall the US leads all nations on expenditure per pupil. If you only measured primary education we are second to Switzerland. What was also interesting was the US summary from the 2005 report:

SHOULD THE UNITED STATES WORRY ABOUT ITS EDUCATION SYSTEM?
There are causes for concern in the United States’ education system. The advantage it had over other countries of much higher completion rates of upper secondary education and tertiary education has been eroded.

The higher education system in the United States remains strong, at least in its reputation which is all that is measured internationally and at least for its elite institutions. The United States’ economy continues to derive a relative advantage in innovativeness from the research conducted in its universities.

The quality of the learning of 15-year-olds in the United States, particularly in mathematics and problem solving, are well below those of many European countries and also Japan, Korea, Australia and New Zealand. With its relatively high expenditure and its relatively low student achievements at
the school level, the United States education system is clearly inefficient.

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Posted By: Addie_Joss

I don't think intelligent people will let the mismanagement of one company scare them into thinking the end is near. When ENRON went down you didn't hear any talk of a depression. Besides, I hope that baseball card values go down the toilet for a while so I can amass a super collection and sit on it till the end of time.

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Posted By: LetsGoBucs

"Medicare also needs to be cut by 30% and the harsh truth is that some people will go without healthcare."

You volunteering, 'Bucs?

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Actually, I already live in this environment. I live/work overseas in various countries for many years and I'm not covered by the local health care system for anything more than basic local (less than what we would consider acceptable) treatment. My company sponsored international health care coverage doesn't cover a specific medical condition that I have (which is a periodic recurring expense sometimes as much as 30K in a year - sometimes zero). So I make choices about when/what type of expenditures I will make. The harsh reality of life is that health care is just like other commodities - it has a cost and is limited - its more emotional and the advancement in technology allows us to make choices not available 20-30 years ago (which we often forget).

And I can say that our healthcare payment system is screwed up. If you have insurance (and therefore at least gainfully employed), you pay $100 charge to the hospital for procedure A. If you don't have insurance (and therefore probably on the lower rung economically), the same procedure will cost you $500. The difference is that the hospital has made up the stupid $500 charge to negotiate with insurance companies - and settled for $100 - but have to charge others the $500 so that they can keep negotiating with the insurance company. Brilliant!!

So yes I've already volunteered. I guess what my statement should say is that some will go without government supported health care.

Its an emotional subject without easy answers. But the economics around it are very easy to understand.

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Posted By: John

Furthermore we think this whole thread is pointless, how anyone can be so simple minded to even compare the horrors and tragic nature of the great depression to silly pieces of paper called baseball cards is beyond me. Below are some pictures to visualize…




------Baseball Cards------


----VS.----




------Great Depression------

Short of the Al Rosen image one can see that a great depression might be a bit more scary. If there is in fact a next great depression on the rise, speaking for myself I have bigger things to worry about such as food, shelter, my family’s well being and my employees. The luxury of buying a Plank & Magie or filling tough slots via REA goes out the window, let alone the ups and downs of a baseball card market.



In fact Bruce you may even have to hold back on calling “Dial 7” limo service from your 2 bedroom apartment/office to meet us for dinner in NYC.




By the way the next NYC dinner is below if the next great one is upon us, Jeff has already agreed to serve soup and has warned Leon one bowl per person!




Do these people look like there are upset over there collectibles? Contrary to your belief Bruce the woman in the photo isn’t upset that her 1933 Goudey high grade collection is down 20%. It might have something to do with starving to death, no house and the loss of everything but hey I could be wrong perhaps she was a huge Dizzy Dean fan…

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Posted By: LetsGoBucs

Do not despair. The beauty of our financial system is that we recognize losses pretty quickly and move on (unlike, say, Japan). What emerges is a stronger and more competitive system
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I agree with the fact that we react to the losses much sooner than other countries. But we need to look at what the reaction has been. Lowering interest rates in combination with increasing the money supply will just reward those that took the risks in the first place and send the message that its ok to go right ahead and take the same type risks again!! And the impact to the USD is very damaging.

Our standard of living is in decline due to the USD steep decline. In 2002 (or thereabouts) it was .82 USD to 1 Euro.....now its 1.57 USD to 1 Euro. We are almost 50% worse off!!! In 6 years!!! Combine this with our budget deficit, our consumer debt (first time ever homeowners own less than 50% of their homes?), and our trade imbalance and I conclude that the gravy train is coming to a stop. We have hollowed out our industry, banks used to constitute 5% of the S&P 500; now I think its 25%. Thats just funny money in my book - perhaps I'm too old fashioned but pushing money around doesn't create wealth.

The foundation is cracked and an overhaul is needed. If you combine this with the fact that during the same 6 years we've made it tougher for the best and brightest to come to our country (to study and work)....and perhaps this time around isn't going to be the same - already this is the worst economic response to Fed interest rate declines in the past 50 years (at least thats what I read in the economist the other day).

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Posted By: Aaron Patton

"....the woman in the photo isn’t upset that her 1933 Goudey high grade collection is down 20%".


simply hilarious

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Posted By: Frank Wakefield

What the banking industry needed was slabbed mortgages. Before the execute a mortgage, or buy or resell one, they have to get it slabbed. An SGC or PSA mortgage should be fairly reliable and solid, most of the time. Maybe a Beckett mortgage. Most any other type of slabbed mortgage would be suspect.

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Posted By: Fred C

Frank,

I would always wonder about the PSA slabbed mortgages. In the back of my mind I'd always ponder the thought that the PSA slabber "over valued" the slabbed mortgage just a bit. I'd also be concerned that the PSA slabbed mortgage could be returned to PSA for a second opinion valuation that only went up and never down. Not only that, what would happen if the PSA mortgage slabber was looking at the item to be slabbed for a buddy? Our whole financial system would collapse if PSA were allowed to slab mortgages.

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Posted By: Ted Zanidakis

I never thought you and I would endorse "slabbing"....but, you are absolutely "right on".

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Posted By: Ted Zanidakis

Our economy had been "perking" along just fine, until this so-called "Sub-Prime" problem surfaced.
Then the "media" jumped on it and did their usual "doom-n-gloom" rabble-rousing. The actual num-
bers of the homes in possible foreclosure situations are approx. 1/1000....that translates to 0.1%.
And, the media is crying "woe are we". Let's get serious, people, the media and the oppsition party
will always "TALK DOWN" the economy, irregardless of its status, during a national election year.

The main criteria for a "depression" or even a "recession" is the employment numbers. This country's
employment force is 95% WORKING....let me repeat....95% WORKING. That translates into 140 Million
employed.

To put everything in the proper perspective, during the Depression, the US was suffering with 20-25%
UNEMPLOYMENT.During the late 1970's (the Carter "malaise" years), unemployment was approx. 10%.

The 0.1% homeowners (mostly in California) that are facing foreclosures have either been irresponsible
or have dealt with irresponsible lenders.

The current OIL crises that we are experiencing was predictable, because we (our politicians) have re-
lented to the idiots who will not let us dig our own Oil within the territories of our own country. We just
have to show the rest of the world that we are going to get serious about mining our own Oil; and, I'll
guarantee you that this will drive the price of Oil down. It might take years to implement our Oil mining
facilities; but, it will instantly alter the thinking of the Oil producers throughout the world.

T-Rex TED

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Posted By: bruce Dorskind

Dear John

You should double check your facts

(1) Next time you post a picture of your girlfriend on the floor
of your residence, please ask her to dress properly

(2) We have never used Dial 7 Limo

(3) We are not invested in the market

(4) In fact the woman in the last picture was worried about her
1932 US Caramels, not her 33 Goudey;s

(5) Ultra high grade rare cards much like the best impressionist
paintings, are the least likely area where prices will be affected.
Note: Please be assured we are not stating that Four Base Hits
are equivalent assets to a Rembrandt or Degas master piece

The economic problems we are facing are rooted in the fact
that too many people are spending money they never had while the
financial institutions were trading instruments they never understood.
.
We need a tax system in place that rewards savings and penalizes
people who borrow money that they don't have. Given the behavior
of the American consumer, we need systems in place that will drive
people and financial institutions to behave in a fiscally responsible manner.

Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List

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Posted By: Jim Dale

I was wondering when a voice of reason would pipe in on this thread...AMEN

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Posted By: barrysloate

Even if the percentage of foreclosures is small-and is that miniscule 0.1% number really correct- that picture doesn't tell the whole story. There are a fair number of families who are able to just barely make the mortgage payments and hang onto their homes, who live from paycheck to paycheck and have a relatively low quality of life. They have no savings, plenty of debts, and maybe no health care, so I don't think the picture is quite that rosy at all.

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Posted By: Jim Dale

Well I agree that the situation is grim for many people, particularly that small percentage really losing their homes. Painting the picture as "rosie" for them is certainly out of the question; but I equate that to suggesting we're headed for a depression too. We are long ways short of the problems we had in 1979 and that was not considered a depression (20% interest rates, 10% inflation and 10% unemployment) none of which occurs today. With 95% of America's work force at work, inflation in check and interest rates at all time lows - I think we'll work things out so long as our government lets them work things out.

The government could help by stimulating our own oil production; but they won't.

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Posted By: LetsGoBucs

Yes the % of foreclosures is small, but its about double the normal rate and there is still about another 9 months worth of subprime mortgages that will be reset with higher rates. That will push up the % some more. I agree with the sentiment that on its own that doesn't mean there is an economic crisis. But the falling house values - which will fall even more, means that there is nothing left to "cover" consumer debt.

But thats just one part of the overall story - the much larger issue is that our government is horrendously in debt, our trade balances are very negative, the value of our currency is going down rather quickly, inflation is back, and our government doesn't have the backbone to address fundamental issues we face.

I actually agreed for many years on the comment about drilling more oil. I now actually think that we might be better off not drilling in Alaska and waiting 20-30 years for the Middle East to exhaust their supply. This is basically a strategic resource that we may want to hand onto as long as possible. The price of oil isn't going way down until we find a way to cut consumption, especially in cars....as car growth in China was 40% last year, Russia 35%, etc, etc throughout the developing markets.

Americans simply consume more than they should and are going to learn some hard lessons......I just hope the government doesn't penalize those that save and are financially responsible to try to help those that aren't (of course the government has already done this by pushing interest rates down and increasing the money supply - $ has tanked and inflation goes up).

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Guys, I'm not sure you are fully grasping what occurred yesterday. Bear Stearns, an 85 year old investment bank, received federal protection (the first time since the Depression that the govt has had to intervene to save a bank). Bear Stearns will cease to exist in a matter of days. That is not a minor matter or one attributable to the media. It is simply an incredible fact.

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Posted By: steve

The federal government is in sooooo much more in debt now compared to when Clinton left office.

The Bush administration will go down as the worst campaign - maybe in the entire US history.

As I said before, I was a little in tears when the electoral votes came out last election in favor of Bush over Kerry.

It was a sad, sad day in American history.

steve

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Posted By: John

"Next time you post a picture of your girlfriend on the floor of your residence, please ask her to dress properly"

Bruce I’ll give you that one, that’s funny! Good one ol’ chap!


Also, Bruce I’m deeply hurt that you would make fun of my girlfriend above “Bruceina” that night we had our first experimental encounter with each other was special for me. I told you as we lay together spooning each other that you may have ruined me for all women; it took me sometime before I could find a woman built with your characteristics. And well Bruceina and I couldn’t be happier!

But you want to hear one that’s really funny?

I’ve got one for you, it’s about this guy named “B” who dresses like an out of work math teacher calls a rental car service a “Limo” service. But wait it gets even funnier this guy claims he works and owns a corporation called a “group” that specializes in merger & accusations.

Yet by looking at this guy it’s clear to see the last thing this guy merged with and or acquired was an extra value meal supersized, or perhaps a Dominoes pizza delivered to his massive two bedroom apartment/office or “World Headquarters” as he calls it.

But the fun just keeps on coming so don’t stop laughing yet folks! This guy constantly posts about money, high grade cards, world economy and claims to have one super tough want list. The main reason it’s tough is simple, because all of the cards on it he can’t afford, or folks wont sell them for half price.

But like all good stories there’s a sad part folks, the sad part is “B’s” just a normal guy who probably did ok with his life, collection and career. But instead of taking pride in that fact, he would rather live in a fantasy world where he pretends to be something he and everyone around him knows he’s not.

That’s right folks, yet more financial advice from a guy who doesn’t even have the courtesy to ask if he can chip in for a dinner he was invited too. Yes a true superstar of wealth and the economy that does the old dine and dash better than a hobo riding the rails.

We find this very sad indeed.

* The following is entirely fictional. Any likeness to real life events or characters is purely coincidental. Wonkaticket takes no responsibility for any similarities between the following and real life*

That should keep the legal threats to my inbox to a minimum.

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Posted By: Jim Dale

and exactly how were more taxes taken out of the publics coffers, more government spending and more regulation going to help the economy...all of which were obviously going to occur by Kerry?

Come on, our generation amassed great wealth thanks to the technology boom of the 1990's. No boom lasts forever; the cycle is turning downward and once the correction has occured things will start moving forward; unless our government screws up.

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Posted By: Cobby33

I invite anybody who is naive and uninformed enough to believe that the sub-prime mortgage fiasco is media-created and is the result of "irresponsible" buyers, to come to my neighborhood in a California suburb and tell that to the poor people whose homes are being auctioned-off.

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Posted By: LetsGoBucs

I invite anybody who is naive and uninformed enough to believe that the sub-prime mortgage fiasco is media-created and is the result of "irresponsible" buyers, to come to my neighborhood in a California suburb and tell that to the poor people whose homes are being auctioned-off.
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Well, with the exception of those who refinanced their homes as a result of being "hoodwinked", or "sweet-talked", or lied to but scum mortgage salemen into going into an ARM, I would say that the rest are responsible for overextending themselves and making the assumption that their home would go up in value 20% a year.

If you buy a 500K home on a 60K salary with no ability to put down a down payment....your making an irresponsible choice.

I believe that the government should try to help those homeowners that are over the age of 60 that have only a primary residence that they have lived in for more than 10 year and was refinanced into an ARM - the vast majority of these folks were simply lied to and didn't know what they were actually agreeing to, and the government provided absolutely no common sense protection in the form of basic regulation. Everyone else needs to take personal responsibility - you take the risk and accept the reward when things are good...you also take the loss when things change.

I know that there are always exceptions - but I can state that I have several friends that refinanced mortgages into ARM's, or took second mortgages and used the money to take vacations, buy cars, necklaces, and basically live a lifestyle well above what they should have....even though they are my friends, I don't think that as a taxpayer I should cough up money to cover their shortfall. Though through fed policy and lower interest rates and lower USD I'm already paying. These people weren't poor, but they chose to live above their means and now have to pay for their year's of living above their means.....a remarkably simliar situation to our federal government and the budget deficit.

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Posted By: Cobby33

I can't believe this.

People have always been irresponsible with money and they have dealt with it one way or another. People have also used refinance money to go on vacations, etc. There are no laws against that.

True, perhaps families with a $60K combined income shouldn't be buying $500K homes, but the picture is much worse than that. There are people with $100K-plus salaries (in CA at least)- who are being foreclosed on OR who are having a difficult time making payments. AND they are not stupid people- they relied on the promises of scumbags in an unregulated industry. They have also relied on the government to do the right thing, instead of the government (both GOP and DEM) making poor financial decisions and NOT being forthright with the true financial picture. It is also the fault of the banks for ENCOURAGING appraisers to artifically raise home values- which in turn made them more money.

Irresponsible spenders do NOT create an epidemic like this and instead of blaming these poor people, we should be trying to help them (or at least reserving judgment).

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Posted By: LetsGoBucs

Irresponsible spenders do NOT create an epidemic like this and instead of blaming these poor people, we should be trying to help them (or at least reserving judgment).
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I agree with that....its also irresponsible lenders and I don't want a penny of taxpayer $'s to go to fancy MBA suits either. Their shareholders should cut their bonuses to zero, demand previous bonuses back for shortsighted and money losing decisions and fire many of them for lacking common sense (ie offering loans to people without knowing doing any kind of credit analysis).

But I don't think its judgement to say that people that lived above their means should be the one's that pay for their behavior Those that live within their means shouldn't pay for those that aren't responsible. The sad part is that your absolutely correct in that many of these people have decent jobs, and are intelligent - but they played "keeping up with the Jones" and lost. I and millions like myself kept up with our affordable lifestyle and made responsible decisions. Why should I now pay for those that took the extra three vacations, drove the Porsche, and spent extravegently on Jewelry, clothes, electronics? If I knocked on your door and asked you to buy me a Iphone because I thought it was really cool - you'd probably tell me to take a hike - the people you describe are in essence asking for the same thing, just after the fact.

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Posted By: Cobby33

I don't disagree.

I agree that those board members/shareholders should be held accountable. I also agree that there should not necessraily be a taxpayer-funded bailout. But there has to be an alternate solution, somewhere, especially for those who may have lived beyond their means- but not to the point of extravagence (Porsches, jewelry, etc.). Maybe there isn't an easy solution, which sucks too.

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Posted By: Fred C

Now, about all those irresponsible people that made irresponsible choices... Many of those people had no idea how to handle finances. Those people were desperate beyond any measure. They wanted to have the American dream, a house. This didn't happen over night. The housing market started to escalate and people saw NO end in sight to the rising prices. The lax regulation on loans only invited the ignorant to join the party and achieve the American dream of home ownership before they were completely priced out of the market. DESPERATION - can you say that - DESPERATION. I've been watching a lot of these families move out of the houses - foreclosed upon. A lot of these people had no idea what it meant to take on a mortgage. No, they had no real means to pay but they didn't care, they wanted in before it was too late.

Now, bring on the Bear Stearns and other financial institutions - they bought a lot of those financial mortgage instruments. Those half million dollar homes are now selling in the $350K range. That's $150K of loss. Now multiply that many times. Who do you think eats that loss? It just doesn't disappear. Nobody takes a Mulligan on it. It evaporates and somebody needs to pay the piper for it. If you live in one of those areas where the housing market went exponential you should talk to a real estate broker. The toughest thing for them to do (these days) is find buyers that actually QUALIFY for a loan. This is one of those RIPPLE DOWN type of affects that we will watch happen. Somehow I just don't see this one getting swept under the rug without a few repercussions.

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

The irony of all of this is that Bear Stearns is filled with multi-zillionaires who all live in homes they can afford which do not have subprime mortgages; however, those zillionaires made zillions off the subprime mortgage industry. Now that those borrowers are crapping out, the Bear Stearns boys -- who were responsible with their own money -- will now be losing their jobs. I can't say that such a result makes me sad.

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Posted By: Cobby33

Fred- Well said. For every person who bought that Porsche they couldn't afford, there is at least one person/family who entirely deserved to buy that modest home and take that modest vacation to Disneyland. But, through no fault of their own (aside from perhaps not being too tightly financially conservative), they're now in an uncomfortable place and that's too bad.

Jeff- Also a good point. Although I hate for ANYONE to lose their jobs- their predicament is ironic.

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Posted By: Fred C

Ah crap, here I go. TAX PAYER BAIL OUT? Please.... lets not do something that stupid. The government needs to let the market find it's own bottom, naturally. The government propping up this mess will only postpone the inevitalbe, that being a correction in the real estate market. The sad part is that a lot of those greedy brokers sold the loans and are out of the mess. All this fiasco is going to do is put more government reulations in place because the American public was too stupid and greedy to act in a rationale manner. I hate to say this but having the government put rules and restrictions in place may not be a bad idea, else we not learn from the past and repeat this mess in the future. The thought of a tax payer bail out just pisses me off. I'm responisible, I pay my bills, I know my limits. Increasing my taxes to pay for a bail out and an unpopular war will only reduce the amount of income I have to spend on the one thing that makes me forget about all that crap... CARDBOARD. Fuggemall..... sorry for the rant... does any get the feeling that a goverment bail out pisses me off?

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Posted By: leon

Fist of all "LetsGoBucks" please be careful in these arguments while staying anonymous. All is good right now but just be careful.

I do absolutely agree with you though. I find little sympathy or empathy for those that took ARMs and now can't afford them. If mortgagees took out equity from their homes and refi'd into an ARM then shame on them. They need to deal with it. America can't keep living on credit debt because at some point someone (us) has to pay for it. If you aren't fiscally responsible then that is your choice. No one forced anyone to sign those contracts and spend the money. For the small percentage of retirees that got hoodwinked then I would soften the blow somewhat but they would still have to be responsible and pay back what they can.....sort of like a reorg.........regards

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Posted By: Cobby33

Ah, forget it, I'll save my rant. I will say that this problem affects different generations and different segments of society, differently. So, before any of us make any generalizations or judgments - we should first be thankful that we have the time and resources to express ourselves on this chatboard. Secondly- we should really look at the predicament others are in and not rush to judgment and assume that they necessarily did anything irresponsibly.

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Fred, that response made me laugh. I agree with you. Sad, but true. We're just stretched too thin now as a country.

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Posted By: LetsGoBucs

Now, about all those irresponsible people that made irresponsible choices... Many of those people had no idea how to handle finances. Those people were desperate beyond any measure. They wanted to have the American dream, a house. This didn't happen over night. The housing market started to escalate and people saw NO end in sight to the rising prices. The lax regulation on loans only invited the ignorant to join the party and achieve the American dream of home ownership before they were completely priced out of the market. DESPERATION - can you say that - DESPERATION.
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Your correct that many people don't know how to handle finances - its unfortunate that personal finance isn't taught in primary education.

But my grandfather gave me some very good financial advise. If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.

Perhaps DESPERATION is a bit of an exaggeration - more like they say others doing it and wanted to get in also? Those that bought homes with ARMs made bad decisions - they weren't ripped off - they made the calculation that their home prices would keep going up and would refinance later.

I agree, and previously stated, that those that are elderly and refinanced their primary residences into ARM - that a vast majority were misled and lied to - they didn't know what they were getting into and I agree that the lack of common sense regulation made it very easy for scumbags to rip these people off. And I would support the government helping those over 60 that only own a primary residence and have lived there for more than 10 years - I would suggest that the government intervene and set the interest rates on those mortgages to the rate for a fixed mortgage.

Finally, I would say that personally I greatly value our freedom - and freedom means that your allowed to do stupid things sometimes...and along with that comes the responsibility for our stupid actions.....we shouldn't be so quick to think that government should take care of everything for everyone. I've lived in places where everything you do is registered, monitored, and the bureaucrat decides who gets what and what you can do....I wouldn't want to have the USA be less free.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

My brief views on these matters:

1)Values of High End Graded Vintage Cards--may dip slightly but likely to perform much better than low-mid end cards. Why would Chad, Don, Don and Greg cut back their purchases of vintage cards--if anything they would accelerate--I would certainly accelerate my purchases if values went down.

2)Oil-oil markets are global and legitimately tight. Its all we can do to grow global supply by 0.5% in an environment of $100 bbl. Of course the ridiculous decisions of the US Govt. to restrict drilling in ANWR, western states and offshore our own coast do not help. Bottom line-$100 bbl and oil and $4 gas is here to stay.

3)Kerry--ugh. I was shocked as many voted for him as they did. The most liberal senator in the country until Barack stands for higher taxes, higher govt spending and a weak US military.

4)Financial crisis-real. My company just had a large layoff and is going through tough times. However, I don't think its the end of the world and we will pull through.

5)McCain beats Obama in the fall.

6)Bruce actually has interesting things to say unlike the person(s) who attacks him.

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Posted By: Solomon Cramer

"NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- More home owners than ever are losing the battle to make their monthly mortgage payments.

Over 900,000 households are in the foreclosure process, up 71% from a year ago, according to a survey by the Mortgage Bankers Association. That figure represents 2.04% of all mortgages, the highest rate in the report's quarterly, 36-year history.

Another 381,000 households, or 0.83% of borrowers, saw the foreclosure process started during the quarter, which was also a record.

Additionally, the number of mortgage borrowers who were over 30 days late on a payment in the last three months of 2007 is at its highest rate since 1985."

full article: http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/06/real_estate/defaults_continue_climb/index.htm?postversion=2008030614>

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Just showing that the number of forclosures are a LOT more than 0.1%.

As others have mentioned, we're a long way from the '30s Depression or even the '70s recession. Inflation is moderate at worst, interest rates are very low, and we are near full employment. This could get ugly, but we're not there yet.

At least one positive thing about the dollar being hammered is it makes our exports more competitive and creates more protection against imports. Still, I think one of our country's biggest problems is allowing ourselves to be the world's whipping boy by our "friends" in the import/export business. Japan, Korea, etc. all sell a large percentage of their cars in our market, but we cannot export our products without excessive taxes? We don't need free trade, we need fair trade. I'm at least happy that the Japanese are only getting 60 cents on the dollar for the cars they export to the US.

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Posted By: David Atkatz

"Our economy had been "perking" along just fine, until this so-called "Sub-Prime" problem surfaced.
Then the "media" jumped on it and did their usual "doom-n-gloom" rabble-rousing. The actual num-
bers of the homes in possible foreclosure situations are approx. 1/1000....that translates to 0.1%.
And, the media is crying "woe are we". Let's get serious, people, the media and the oppsition party
will always "TALK DOWN" the economy, irregardless of its status, during a national election year."

Yep. Things are just hunky-dorey after eight years of Dubya. Tax cuts for the well-to-do and a two trillion dollar war. Four dollar-a gallon gas.

It's jest those goldarn dem-o-crats and the lib-er-al media a'stirrin' up trouble.

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Posted By: David Atkatz

"5)McCain beats Obama in the fall."

Wanna bet?

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Posted By: barrysloate

I'll take Obama and the 2 1/2 points.

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Posted By: Fred C

Ok, so Hillary is out of the race, is that correct? You heard it first on N54.

Any predictions? Out of desperation do you think there may be one last skeleton that can be pulled out of the closet on Obama or Hillary? I'm just waiting for the bombshell to drop. Any predictions on what that skeleton might be?

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

David, I'd be honestly shocked if Obama beats McCain in the fall. I don't think you are appreciating the latent racism that exists in this country. Also, Obama is only now being probed by the media and they've got a long way to go. His handling of the Reverend Wright situation yesterday was not very promising.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Hillary can still win the nomination, but she has some catching up to do.

Edited to add Obama has certainly had a bad couple of weeks but I think he is exciting the youth voters, a group that almost never participates in the election. He is going to surprise everyone and win the presidency.

McCain is a decent man and a moderate Republican, but does he have any qualifications? After eight years of a president who couldn't buy a clue, I think this time around someone with fresh ideas, or who at least gives the impression that he may have fresh ones, just might take it.

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Posted By: Brian Weisner

Hi Guys,
I suggest you read....

Democracy in America

By
Alexis de Tocqueville.




Then we can have a discussion... on a "non Vintage card Board"...


Be well Brian

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Barry, ironic that you would question whether McCain has any qualifications to lead the country in an election that features Obama!

And Hilary cannot catch up in the delegate race. She may take the nomination from Obama via the superdelegates but hijacking the nomination will probably enrage Obama's followers -- the black vote -- to such an extreme that they will sit out the November election, thus handing it to McCain. Only chance to prevent this will be if Obama takes the VP slot on a Hilary ticket which seems incredibly unlikely. In either scenario, incredibly, I think the Dems are in trouble. Almost hard to imagine how they could screw this one up after the past 8 years.

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Posted By: Ted Zanidakis

THANKS for making my case and reinforcing my 0.6% figure on foreclosures. You stated......

"Over 900,000 households are in the foreclosure process, up 71% from a year ago, according to
a survey by the Mortgage Bankers Association. That figure represents 2.04% of all mortgages,"

The latest homeowner's statistics indicate there are approx. 150,000,000 households with mort-
gages in this country. Therefore.......

900,000/150,000,000 = 0.6 %

The mistake you made was to accept CNN's math (2% figure). Most everybody knows that the
majority in the "media" are mathematically challenged.

TED Z

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Posted By: barrysloate

Jeff- you know what: no presidential candidate has the experience of running the country before they are elected. Bush still doesn't, and he's been around for seven years. Obama, or anyone for that matter, will learn on the job. What did Kennedy know? How about Ronald Reagan? Obama is smart and he'll be a quick learner.

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Posted By: Solomon Cramer

Where is your 150M number coming from? I certainly don't question that CNN could make mistakes. But the simpliest math I can see:

300 million people in the US

195 million of those people are over the age of 25 (http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/ACSSAFFFacts?_submenuId=factsheet_1&_sse=on)

I would say that you're not going to have that many sub-25 year olds owning a house.

Now, out of every single person over 25 in this country - you believe there are 150 million households with mortgages? Even if only half of those people were married and living together (50 million couples and 100 million singles) - that would indicate every single household has a mortgage? No renters, no one living in old age homes, etc. etc. It just doesn't add up.

Here is the housing information from the same website:


Housing Characteristics - show more >> Estimate
Total housing units 126,311,823
Occupied housing units 111,617,402
Owner-occupied housing units 75,086,485
Renter-occupied housing units 36,530,917
Vacant housing units 14,694,421

Owner-occupied homes 75,086,485
Median value (dollars) 185,200
Median of selected monthly owner costs
With a mortgage (dollars) 1,402
Not mortgaged (dollars) 399


Best I can read this, in 2006 there were 75 million owner occupied homes, which would be at most 75 million mortgages if everyone owed something on their houese.

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Barry, that's true to some extent; however, Reagan had a lot of experience of running a large government, unlike Obama. While I appreciate Obama's position as a uniter and not a divider -- and in running a race-free candidacy -- I was somewhat stunned to listen to that BS last night in which he claimed that he was clueless about the positions of his 20-year minister who married him and baptized his kids and until yesterday was a part of his campaign staff. He's going to have to do better than that if he wants to capture some of the moderates that are necessary for a win in November.

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Posted By: James Feagin

How do you think this recession/impending depression going to affect the auction house?

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Posted By: Cobby33

It's irrelevant whether it's 2%, .6%, .1%, whatever. The point is, it's happening to more and more hard-working people. Again, I challenge you to tell them to their face that it's all their fault.

What's more is the number of hard-working people who are working two jobs just to pay that mortgage. Something just isn't right and it is certainly not because they're a bunch of illiterate slobs who can't balance their checkbooks. We can start with this Administration and their friends in high finance, banking and lending- and work our way down (or up, as it were). You can even blame the past admin. if you'd like.

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Posted By: Andy fischer

[IMG][/IMG]

Inflation is NOT in check as some have stated earlier. If you dont know what this is, it is the M3 money chart that measures all of the US dollars in circulation, be it cash, coin, 401k, money market, checking accounts, bonds, or whatever else. Oh, and by the way, our government decided to stop producing this information after 2006, i wonder why that could possibly be, maybe so the American public will not notice how much money the Fed has been printing year after year?

Inflation is not rising prices, inflation is the, well, inflation of the money supply. Rising prices is the symptom that lags true inflation.

The symptoms will be getting exponentially worse as foreign investors in the dollar decide to dump the sinking greenback into everyday circulation. This will cause severly higher prices because of the sharp rise in supply and the dramatic fall in demand.

Hold onto that silver, gold, and plat.