Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?

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Posted By: barrysloate

But that's a thread about my own auction, not somebody else's. I have the right to "out" my own.

This is a bit of a gray area. Adam's position is fair but I see a distinction between an obscure and rare item that is in the wrong category, versus a major event with what I assume to be a few hundred lots. That would be like outing a Mastro or REA auction- they're kind of hard to miss.

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Posted By: Elliot

Jim, i can't believe that you think it is a major hobby event when a dealer lists a bunch of overpriced cards on ebay that in all likelihood will not sell.
I would dare say that if you think it's ludicrous that you are pimping your own cards, then you are the only one that thinks that way. Everybody is quite aware why you started this thread.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Can I get clarification: Are the cards that Steve is selling belong to Jim? Or are they simply in the same vein of what he collects?

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Posted By: dstudeba

Won't the implications on pricing be after the auctions are over?

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Posted By: Elliot

Barry, it's not that he "collects" cards in the same vein. It's that a few months ago he consigned similar cards to the same dealer who listed the cards on ebay, but they did not sell. There's no reason to believe that these cards are not for sale, although not listed on ebay.

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Posted By: Wesley

Barry, Initially, I thought this was the same group of PSA 8 T206s that Steve Novella listed on behalf of Jim but did not receive bids. But as it turns out, this is a different group.

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Posted By: barrysloate

I certainly hope this is a different group, and it couldn't hurt if Jim would come on and clarify it.

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Posted By: leon

It's always been a custom on Net54 that "board friendly" auction houses can out their auctions. Of course I wouldn't expect any that don't like the way this board is run to do so....

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Funny Elliott--want to put your money where your mouth is? In all liklihood will not sell? Want to bet on that or are you just mouthing off?

Nobody who knows me personally would think I am pimping my own cards. Steve is a friend--but this is a very important auction in the most important set on the board.

As for the overpriced cards you sound like a disgruntled guy who missed the boom in graded card valuies--sorry. Lets see if the market thinks they are overvalued.

So Barry, its okay to advertise your own auctions on Net 54 with a thread but you cannot start a thread on the importance of a block of cards going up on ebay.

Okay, I get it.

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Posted By: barrysloate

And not that I want to tell anybody how to run their business but... if these PSA 8 low pops are so red hot why is there a need to place such a high price/reserve on them that they won't even sell? I would think you could start them at a nickel and they would still reach a multi-thousand dollar level.

I never understood the point of listing something not to sell. But that's just my three cents.

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Posted By: Wesley

How are you so certain these will sell?

When Steve listed a group of your cards, they received zero bids. Were those not low pop PSA 8s as well?

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Posted By: barrysloate

Yes Jim, it's okay for me to announce my auction and it is equally alright for you to discuss Steve's auction (let's put the outing component aside for the moment). I just wanted to know if these were your cards or not. Fair question?

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Barry--whats so difficult. You only want to sell at a certain price. I think these prices are reasonable and over half wwill get bids. You never heard of a guy who says I gotta get $10,000 for the card or I won't sell it--so you set your minimum at that price--I have done that often--sometimes nobody bites and sometimes bingo.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Wesley,

I am not certain these will sell? Who knows? I would bet that over half will--maybe I am wrong?

Beautiful cards.

Barry--we are in agreement--I think both should be allowed to run and so does Leon.

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Posted By: barrysloate

I'm just distinguishing between a retail sale and an auction. In retail you can ask whatever you please; in the spirit of an auction you should leave room for multiple bidders to place their bids and have a healthy competition. That's all- no big deal.

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Posted By: wesleyliu

BREAKING NEWS

Seymour and Durham got bids today.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Barry,

A lot of ebay auctions have high opening bids as the seller refuses to sell for below what the crad is worth.

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Posted By: Tom Nieves

Jim,

Please provide a straightforward answer to John Basilone's question from 11:41 am. Thank you.

Tom



***********************************



John Basilone
(Login John_Basilone) Re: Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event? September 21 2007, 11:41 AM


Jim,

Do you own or did you own any of these cards? Just wondering.

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Posted By: Elliot

Jim, got me, i'm forever doomed to be an armpit collector. Perhaps, you could help me find a job as I haven't worked in 12 years. Then I'd be able to buy a card or two and people like you wouldn't think I was beneath them.

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Posted By: barrysloate

I understand why sellers do it, and it's a sound idea for material that may not be hot at the moment.

But don't you think T206 low pops in PSA 8 are "can't miss" items? Based on your enthusiasm I can't imagine any would go for less than full market value.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Elliot,

I don't know you but you started by insulting me and I responded. If you would like to apologize and move on fine. If not, thats fine too but don't pull this I think I'm better that you junk on me.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Barry,

When you set the minimum bid for a pop 1 psa 8 just $100 lower than the all-time high of over $10,000, I would not call it a can't miss item. Certainly almost everyone would love to have these in their collection but there comes a point that if you raise them to a certain level collectors will not bid.

You say based on my enthusiasm? I think it is a very important auction--my guess would be over half will sell--I would say as far as prices I would not differ too much for Michael Sarno--the King of the 206s--as to their value.

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Posted By: Elliot

Jim, please re-read the thread, you will see that i have not insulted you, rather the only post with an insult is the one where you call me a "disgruntled guy". If there is any apology that is necessary it is you to me. BTW, please say hello to Jerry Isaacs next time you see him, it's been a while since we talked.

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Posted By: barrysloate

What I'm asking is if you started a pop 1 card at a nickel, based on its rarity and high demand, wouldn't you think it would still sell for around 10K?

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Elliot,

As I recall you said I started the thread to pimp my own cards or something like that and that "everybody" mbelieves this? I consider this an insult to my character as I would never do such a thing and I think you should apologize for that comment.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Barry,

Probably not. My guess is most pop 1s won't sell but then again I think at least one will.

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Posted By: T206Collector

Are very contemporary. They are based on "pop" which is not necessarily stagnant and, in all likelihood, will change for many (if not most) of these cards. Moreover, they rely on PSA which is hardly the favorite grading company among pre-war collectors.

I think sharp, high grade cards are really sweet -- assuming they're unaltered. But if you are buying them based on a pop report in 2007, don't expect that the pop report will either be the same -- or, more importantly -- mean the same thing in 1, 2, 5, or 10 years from now.

It is the pre-war equivalent of collecting LeBron James 1 of 1 signature cards.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

T206(sorry I forgot your name again),

These are all familiar refrains from you--lets see what they go for.

By the way, how does the price on sgc 8s compare with psa 8s(the favorite of pre-war collectors)?

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Posted By: Elliot

Jim, i will grant you that "perhaps" you started this thread because you are caught up with selling your cards, therefore you saw the listings by Steve Novella as being an important hobby event, and you did not realize that the net effect was to "pimp" (a word that i did not use in my first post, but only in response to your denial) your own cards which although not explicitly on the market, are for sale.
FWIW, i believe that a number of these PSA 8 will sell, as it was not long ago that PSA 7's were selling for over $1000, so it's reasonable to assume that people will purchase some of the lower priced PSA 8's which have a starting price at that level. There's no predicting the sale of the low pops as all it takes is one collector to pull the trigger if he wants the card and feels like spending the money.

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Posted By: Tom Nieves

Jim has been ducking John Basilone's question for nearly 10 hours. At this point, I believe the answer is obvious.

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Posted By: T206Collector

<<T206(sorry I forgot your name again)>>

S'okay, I go by T206 on here.

<<These are all familiar refrains from you.>>

They are usually in response to your reliance on pop reports as more than a contemporary indicator of how many of a certain card a certain grading company has graded on a date/time certain. Your posts rely on the flawed assumption that a population report will remain (a) constant for that card; and (b) relevant for that grading company. Because we cannot know how many of which card will be graded by a certain grading company in the future -- or whether that grading company's reputation will be as good or better in the future -- basing purchasing decisions on a pop report is naive -- unless you are looking for a quick flip to a like-minded collector who also is naive about pop reports.

Since PSA 8 sales are driven by 2 or more people that purchase PSA 8 cards based on this same flawed reasoning, it is not surprising that (a) PSA would outperform SGC here; or (b) that an SGC 88 would be crossed immediately into a PSA 8 holder to sell to this crowd. Indeed, Lionel Carter's collection was graded by Mastro through SGC, unless there was a card that would have an impact on the PSA Set Registry, in which case it was graded by PSA -- to specifically target this audience.

If you want to play the Set Registry game in the short term, you may very well be able to take advantage of the demand in that market place. But if you are interested in maintaining a value of $10,000 on a PSA 8 common card based on a pop report, well then, in my opinion you would be better off spending $10,000 on 5 PSA 8 T206 cards with a larger population.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Elliot,

I hate to disappoint you but my cards are not for sale and selling my cards is not an option today. At a certain price and at some future time perhaps--I am more inclined to be a buyer now.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

John Basilone???

Last time I heard about him he was fighting it out with Michael Bow on the SGC boards.

Whatever happened to him?

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Posted By: JimCrandell

T206,

Where I would differ from you is that the relative pops will stay fairly constant. It is difficult to say that in this set because the pops are so low but in sets where there are more 8s the lower pop 8s 2 years ago are the lower pops today.

I would certainly agree that if you paid $10,000 for a psa 8 pop 1 common and another popped up the price would drop. On the other hand if 5 years from now that is still a pop 1(certainly possible) it might be a $20,000 card. While this may be tough to comprehend we live in a bifurcated economy and there are a few collectors I know that I think spend several million a year on cards. Also some of us just gotta have psa 8 sets no matter what the cost. Sevens or less just won't cut it. Thus, the buyer may think probably not a good investment but to do the psa 8 and better set I gotta buy it.

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Posted By: Tom Nieves

Michael Bow... now there's a real winner!

I'll drop the subject regarding John Basilone's post in this thread.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Tom,

I do not own any of these cards nor have I ever owned them. And to answer another question, I have no idea who does own them.

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Posted By: Marc S.

of data out there on Pop 1 cards from the T-206 set in both PSA 8 and PSA 9 from many of the major auction houses in the past 12-18 months. Those auctions were all started at modest amounts, and the market was allowed to decide the true value of these cards, as opposed to an arbitrary opening bid. Although some auction houses have questionable tactics (was it a real sale?), I will always defer to those prices realized as a more important and relevant data point than someone listing at prices that are basically guaranteed to have relatively few, if any, actual sales.

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Posted By: John Basilone

Hi Jim,

I thought the last batch of high grade T206's that Steve listed were consigned by you and that there may have been some of those cards mixed into this current offering. I may be wrong there, but that was the rumor going around. That was the reason for my post. Anyways, I hope all is well with you. Shoot me an email next time you are in Cleveland on business.

John

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Posted By: joe

Jim probably does not own these cards, but hopes they sell high. He has cards graded as high as these and it will result in more income if they sell high. Not sure if outing the auction will help, but any collector or dealer with cards in the same grade would hope for high prices.

Joe

Ty Cobb, Spikes flying!

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Posted By: Misunderestimated (Brian H.)

Seems like a rather "chippy" thread...
They are really beautiful cards and the auctions (and the priceing strategies) are fun to follow in a Forbes' magazine way. I'm happy to be aware of them and they are rather interesting

I agree with whomever it was (Adam?) about the no outing auctions code in general but I think it doesn't matter here for a number of reasons. I sm sure that Jim had no intent to do anything improper too.

As for "market defining" I think that may need some qualifying. From what I know about the upper echelon of the Registry and from the posts from those who seem to be in the know it these auctions basically tell us what a few guys might be willing to pay for the highest PSA graded T206 commons if they need them right now. That defines a very small part of the top of the market. Certainly an interesting part of the market but unlikely to have that much impact on the larger market for T206s unless the population of bidders is much greater than the posts above suggest. As a spectator it would be more interesting if the auctions started much lower (move the decimel place over for starters0. But if I were the seller/consignor that would be too risky for me.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

John,

Long time--no hear. I thought you had forgotten about me.

I like to keep em guessin on this board John--if you want to know what I am buying and selling you can e-mail me and I will tell you. They don't believe me here anyway. I can say these aren't mine and I am not a seller yet one expert says I am pimping my own cards and everyone is quite aware why I started the thread!

Steve is my friend--it is an important auction regarding a major set...and believe it or not some don't consider high-end graded card collecting the heart and soul of the hobby.

Jim

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Posted By: Marc S.

it is only important if it is a true "auction" format -- e.g. started modestly and then the market decides on the price. By starting Pop 1's at $10k -- it is only a ploy to try and entice two or three high-grade T-206 buyers to make an above-market investment in a common from a very popular set. It will not be an auction in that three whales will each be bidding each other up over the $10k entrance fee. The card either doesn't sell (85% chance), or it sells for the minimum bid (15% change). That, in my mind, is not an auction or a reflection of true market value. It is simply a negotiated sale that takes place in an otherwise open forum.

Most of here residing in the armpit of the hobby...
A Ty Cobb Bat Off PSA 7 will set you back approximately $6,200
A Ty Cobb Red Portrait PSA 6 will set you back approximately $3,700

If I polled 100 Net 54 posters and readers -- I can only imagine that less than 5 would seriously even consider taking a Pop 1 PSA 8 T-206 over the PSA 7 and PSA 6 Cobbs from the same set referenced above. And of those five -- I'm guessing that at least three of them would try and exploit Set Registry players to monetize their investment as soon sa they got it.

That's all I got from my armchair.

Cheers,
Marc

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Posted By: sagard

I'm not buying that auctions are the only way to define a market price. Too much emotion gets involved and that could either help or in some auctioneers case hurt the final hammer.

Here we have a professional making a price and the collectors will decide if now is the time for $10K PSA 8 commons.

I don't have a horse in this race, but I will be watching these results. The board was a far more interesting read today due to these high profile auctions being outed.

Someone should ask the seller if he would refund if they were submitted to another respected authority and their opinion differed from PSA's opinion.

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Posted By: Corey R. Shanus

"...and believe it or not some don't consider high-end graded card collecting the heart and soul of the hobby."

That is quite a statement. How does one define the heart and soul of this hobby? Is it the set registry guy who has the means and desire to shell out five figures for a low pop T206 common? Or is it a guy who may or may not have the means but chooses to spend his money not on condition rarities but on cards that are simply rare or cards that simply appeal to him, which appeal is not hampered by the card not having the best technical features? Is heart and soul represented by passion and knowledge, or is it represented by insatiable demand for bragging rights? While I collect in a manner different from a set registry guy, I respect their right to collect how they see fit. If that is how they derive their satisfaction and enjoyment from this hobby, who am I to tell them not to do it? And no, I am not saying that they cannot have passion and knowledge. But I respectfully disagree that they represent the heart and soul of the hobby.

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Posted By: Cobby33

"This is a major newsworthy event with significant implications for pricing of the most popular set around."

Are you KIDDING me? I checked the NY Times, LA Times, SF Chronicle and the Petaluma Argus Courier and none seemed to feature this auction.

The only thing potentially newsworthy here is how I can get PSA to assign my "Auth" cards high grades.

Finally- anyone who thinks that self-promotion without actually having a card for sale is not self-serving, must think that the reader is the biggest dunce since the monkey wrapped his tail around the flagpole. Seriously, every single thread started with, i.e., "isn't the spike in T205's amazing" is hardly a random observation by a casual observer. So- if you want to self-promote, or "pimp" your collection (whether you're selling or not)- go for it. But don't shroud it in a happenstance, "guess what I found." We're not that lame.

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Posted By: Ted Zanidakis

Your comment...."A Market Defining Event?"....has to be one of the most absurd
statements I have read on this Forum.

A "Market Defining Event" is......

The Copeland sale at Sotheby's in the early '90s.

Or, Alan Rosen's huge 1952 Topps Hi# find in the mid-'80s.

Or, Brian Wentz's recent huge 1952 Bowman FB (large) find.

Or, the T206 Wagner being flipped each time to its current value of 2 Million+


I could go on and on, but I think I made my point......

However, I don't think you will get it....as, you are encapsulated in your own
little 'gold-plated plastic" world.

TED Z

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Corey,

Relax--my comments were tongue in cheek given my previous backbone comment--thought this was obvious.

Cobby,

Don't get why I am trying to promote my T206s--this is not a focus set for me--you are saying any set I talk about a graded card auction I am "pimping" my own cards.

Ted,

Thats because you are not a high-end graded card collector. You view things differently.

For example if Charlie Merkel sold his 52 Topps all-world set card by card I would call this a market defining event. There are enough psa 8 cards of different pops that one can get a good handle on the market for 8s in the post popular pre-war set there is.

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

I agree with Marc S -- because the large majority of the cards won't sell this is not a market-defining instance. For example, if one of the cards was of a player that I collected I'd pony up for more than what the card was worth simply because I wanted it for my collection, knowing that I was throwing some money away for the right to own the card. That does not make the card 'worth' that amount (except to me). Same goes with these Registry-rare cards: some collector on the Registry may desperately need the card for his set and will be willing to pay above market price for it. Upon resale, that card is worth much less. For example, I sold a very low pop high grade prewar card recently on ebay for $3500 as two Registry guys battled it out. The same grade card, same grade sold 6 months later on ebay for $1500. What was the card truly worth? On low pop high grade commons, you need more than one sale to define a market value when you have such a thing population of people who want them.

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Posted By: Corey R. Shanus

Thanks for the clarification. I guess with all your prior posts I somehow came to the conclusion that that statement reflected your actual views thus preventing me from distinguishing a remark meant to be tongue in cheek.

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Posted By: PAS

Why don't we just all agree that it will be interesting to see if some of these cards fetch record prices and leave it at that?