Vintage Card Performance During A Recession

[rats60]

Originally Posted by packs

You can buy a T206 Cobb, Matty, Johnson or Young any day you feel like it. Same for the Goudey Ruths and Gehrigs. They're easily found. When the lifetime collections are divvied up and sold these are likely to be the cornerstone cards that go first. But I do agree with you on the postwar drop. Maybe people will still be interested in Topps or Bowman runs but I would think interest will take a serious hit. Who knows, maybe 80s and 90s junk wax becomes huge again.

Maybe in lower grades. In PSA 5 or above the Cobb pop ranges from 100 (green) to 336 (red). Ruth pop ranges from 162 (#53) to 255 (#144). These cards aren't going to be dumped and any that come onto the market will be gobbled up.

[Throttlesteer]

Originally Posted by JackW

I don't think "certain signs" are the *only" reason discussions of a recession are picking up.

I'm picking up what you're putting down. Some seem more than excited about it too.

[trdcrdkid]

Originally Posted by JackW

I don't think "certain signs" are the *only" reason discussions of a recession are picking up.

I honestly don’t know what you’re trying to say here.

[KCRfan1]

People who look for recession indicators typically look at the following: GDP ( gross domestic product number ) , actual or real income , employment numbers , retail sales , and industrial production.

None of these areas are really lagging.

However, nobody has a crystal ball.

Recessions come and go, bull markets come and go. Neither lasts forever.

In terms of collectables, buy what you like and what you love, AND WHAT YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE IF IT GOES TO ZERO VALUE.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by trdcrdkid

Economists are notoriously poor at predicting recessions, basically no better than the ordinary man on the street. There will certainly be another recession in the U.S. at some point, but neither you nor I know when it will be, or how bad it will be.

Nearly every day since after the bottom in 2009 I have seen some article online by one economist or another predicting imminent and catastrophic collapse of the markets and the economy. Indeed, many of them claimed it had already begun. They always identify the same reasons and present the same doomsday graphs showing supposedly infallible indicators.

[egri]

Regardless of when the next recession hits (and I’ve been hearing for 4-5 years that it’s just around the corner) I would not look to cards as a safe haven. It’ll be a good time to be buying, not selling.

[Leon]

+1
I see the same articles with all of the indicators yet no one can ever tell what the market is going to do. I am sure more than a few great investors have said as much. (The only thing for sure is nothing is for sure). That all said, it is more fun to collect cards than stocks....at least to me. A balance is always best.

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Nearly every day since after the bottom in 2009 I have seen some article online by one economist or another predicting imminent and catastrophic collapse of the markets and the economy. Indeed, many of them claimed it had already begun. They always identify the same reasons and present the same doomsday graphs showing supposedly infallible indicators.

[Santo10Fan]

Originally Posted by Leon

...That all said, it is more fun to collect cards than stocks....at least to me. A balance is always best.

I agree, I caught a little of the antiquing bug from my mother and hers. Is that one of the genes we can edit now? Can they keep the gene active and add the balancing part? I'm in!

[Exhibitman]

You know, economists have predicted six of the last three recessions. The best indicators are businesses that get cut first when things slow up: construction, public relations, executive recruitment. My wife works in recruiting and her company has seen a marked slowdown in business. But my construction and public relations clients haven’t been hit yet. When I get a spike in collections cases from them it is time to batten down the hatches. Last time around my entire construction and real estate practice went from deals to collections virtually overnight...a year before the sh** hit the fan. Right after the 2007 NSCC. The cycle before that it was an onslaught of collections work against dot com companies and developers that collapsed and stopped paying vendors. The first cycle I experienced was right out of law school. It took the legs out of the construction industry to such an extent that the firm I was with (a construction practice) laid off 75% of its associates.

My research on boxing cards showed a lag between recession and effect of about one year. Prices were good in the months after the debacle but dropped after that. Bottomed out around October 2010.