Questions About "Modern" Cards

[53toppscollector]

I don't collect modern cards, but there are obviously player collectors out there who legit are trying to collect as many cards of a player as possible. The popular guys like Lebron, Curry, Mahomes, etc, there are people who genuinely want to collect their stuff, especially the rare/auto'ed stuff. Lots of people just treat modern cards as assets to flip short term to recognize a profit. And the hobby needs liquidity from people like that, so I never view it as a bad thing.

This is essentially the Junk Wax 2.0 era now, with regard to base cards

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by 53toppscollector

I don't collect modern cards, but there are obviously player collectors out there who legit are trying to collect as many cards of a player as possible. The popular guys like Lebron, Curry, Mahomes, etc, there are people who genuinely want to collect their stuff, especially the rare/auto'ed stuff. Lots of people just treat modern cards as assets to flip short term to recognize a profit. And the hobby needs liquidity from people like that, so I never view it as a bad thing. This is essentially the Junk Wax 2.0 era now, with regard to base cards

Thanks. I have never thought of anything, short of fraud, as good or bad in the hobby, just trying to understand it. Couple of questions from your answer: please explain how liquidity (meaning cash sloshing around, I assume) benefits the hobby outside of the modern sector--is it that some of that cash will move into other sectors?; what are base cards, and what happened during the first junk wax era, which I take to be the late 80s and 90s? Any other insights will be welcomed.

[53toppscollector]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

Thanks. I have never thought of anything, short of fraud, as good or bad in the hobby, just trying to understand it. Couple of questions from your answer: please explain how liquidity (meaning cash sloshing around, I assume) benefits the hobby outside of the modern sector--is it that some of that cash will move into other sectors?; what are base cards, and what happened during the first junk wax era, which I take to be the late 80s and 90s? Any other insights will be welcomed.

What I mean by liquidity is the consistent flow of cards in the hobby. Without people flipping and selling cards, you'd have a lot less supply on the market, making it tougher to find cards you are looking for.

Base cards are non-serial numbered cards. For example, cards 1-600 in a Topps set of cards. Those cards are not serial numbered, and each card has the same quantity printed, and Topps/Panini have been printing TONs of them, so they are not in any way rare.

Yes, the first junk wax era was the late 80s-early 90s. Topps/Donruss/Fleer/Upper Deck printed an insane amount of product as interest in the hobby ramped up. They printed so many of them that the cards basically lost all their value. A similar thing is happening now with Topps/Panini base sets, where they are printing insane quantities of the base cards, and then adding tons of different inserts/parallels into every set they release, which is diluting the market. Rookies no longer have 1 or 2 cards, they end up with 100+ cards in different colors/sets.

[todeen]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

Thanks. I have never thought of anything, short of fraud, as good or bad in the hobby, just trying to understand it. Couple of questions from your answer: please explain how liquidity (meaning cash sloshing around, I assume) benefits the hobby outside of the modern sector--is it that some of that cash will move into other sectors?; what are base cards, and what happened during the first junk wax era, which I take to be the late 80s and 90s? Any other insights will be welcomed.

Hi Hank. I don't collect modern sets, but I collect modern singles. In modern, Topps flagship is called "paper" versus Chrome. You have base cards, short prints, super short prints, parallels, inserts, and insert parallels.

You are asking about scarcity: manufactured vs natural. If you wanted to collect natural scarcity in the modern market you would want to collect SP and SSP. These do not come in parallel form. They are very popular, but they don't seem to command the prices of manufactured scarcity. Even non-rookie SP and SSP are highly collectable for stars.

I'm pretty sure you understand the parallels that are numbered /99, /76, /50, and etc. Today, set collectors have been replaced by "Rainbow" collectors. These collectors want to get all the border combinations for a certain player. Rainbow collectors have two choices - paper vs chrome. Paper rainbows cost less. Chrome rainbows cost more.

I don't collect rainbows because I don't have that kind of money. I prefer to get cards in just a couple parallels. I like Xfractors, and I like the new Mega Box refractors sometimes called Silver Pack. If you are collecting the rainbow, anything /99 or less is desirable. Some collectors I know start at /50 or less for what they collect.

Let's look at 1993 Topps Derek Jeter. This existed before Topps Chrome. However, it's a nice introduction to parallels. You have the base paper RC, and then you have four parallels: Topps Gold, Inaugural Rockies Set, and Inaugural Marlins Set, and Topps Mini.

In 1996, Derek Jeter's rookie year coincided with the release of 1996 Topps Chrome. However, Topps did not release Topps Gold parallels that year. So in 1996 you have his base paper card, his base chrome card, and a Chrome refractor.

By the late 1990s, Topps Chrome began to expand their refractor parallels into Gold and Black. And in 2001, Topps brought back the paper Topps Gold parallel. This coincided with the rookie season of Ichiro and Pujols, and those parallels are expensive. By 2002, Topps had introduced the Xfractor. The 2002 Bowman Chrome Xfractor of Joey Votto is the big ticket item from that year. I wish I had one! And the Bowman Chrome gold signature parallel is another card that brings big bucks. I'm not sure gold signature is still around - I don't collect Bowman prospects.

Bowman is the real set where collectors flip and make money. When people complain about flippers, they make their most money with Bowman First prospect cards. This is where people spend $100k for an unproven prospect.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by todeen

Hi Hank. I don't collect modern sets, but I collect modern singles. In modern, Topps flagship is called "paper" versus Chrome. You have base cards, short prints, super short prints, parallels, inserts, and insert parallels.

Wow, Tim, what a fabulous tutorial, and directly to the heart of my questions. I have to wonder how many of those cards the "Becketteer" kids of the 90s left on the floor as they tore through packs looking to extract the special cards might be worth something today or some day, as it seems as though those sets, deemed worthless at the time due to the assumption that an unlimited number of them would be put in protective holders without so much as being touched by human hands, are and will be increasingly collected up by fans of those generations. Scarcity is scarcity, no matter the reason, and as long as there is demand for those, they will get collected up and become more and more scarce and valuable. I find it so cool to find out that succeeding generations to mine aren't just in it for the money, but are instead true fans of the players, teams, sports, etc., they love, and those with the collecting gene are continuing the traditions of the hobby pretty much unabated and unchanged. What us old farts used to refer to derisively as "shiny stuff" just turns out to be the cards of heroes of the newer generations, not a bit different from the cards of our heroes. Not sure why I'm so surprised by this, but it's great to see. And the assumption seems to be that a substantial percentage of these collectors will at some point move into vintage as well, although I'm not sure why that even has to be part of the equation for the hobby to continue on in great health. That might just be showing a bias on the part of us older guys with vintage collections, and one that turns out to have little basis in fact. I don't know why a kid who grew up in the 90s should care about Mickey Mantle, Carl Hubbell, or Walter Johnson cards. And when they start having the disposable income to dip into the older markets, maybe they will, maybe they won't, time will tell. Anyway, thanks again, Tim, you've really opened my eyes to the intricacies of the modern hobby, and I appreciate it.

[Touch'EmAll]

This morning over coffee I was checking ebay.

My first search - Walter Johnson both PSA & SGC
2nd search - Mathewson PSA & SGC
3rd search - Andrew Abbott "Newly listed" (this kid has game, brought up in June with the Reds, so much fun to follow a rookie pitcher, I am impressed!)
4th search - Derrick Henry

I contacted a seller, we made a deal on a sweet looking Derrick Henry card with a great looking action shot, very nice PSA 10 card.

Collect what you like, pre war, vintage, modern, ultra modern. It's all good. With the modern, there is so much out there, refractors, parallels, serial #, inserts, etc. Honestly, I find it fun to check out the new stuff just as much as the oldies. Plus it's a lot cheaper, haha. Keeps me in the collecting game.

[HasselhoffsCheeseburger]

For some years now I've been curious what will happen when the hobby boom kids grow up and reach that "re-enter the hobby for nostalgia" stage and have disposable income.

Everyone is always quick to point out how much product was produced back in that time frame but they never mention how horribly ineffectual those cards have been stored these past 30 years and how we're going to see the largest influx of adult collectors re-entering the hobby than ever before.

What is going to happen when that occurs? Might be time to buy a Greg Maddux RC.

Arthur

[packs]

I don't collect modern sets but I enjoy modern cards and modern players.

[perezfan]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

Wow, Tim, what a fabulous tutorial, and directly to the heart of my questions. I have to wonder how many of those cards the "Becketteer" kids of the 90s left on the floor as they tore through packs looking to extract the special cards might be worth something today or some day, as it seems as though those sets, deemed worthless at the time due to the assumption that an unlimited number of them would be put in protective holders without so much as being touched by human hands, are and will be increasingly collected up by fans of those generations. Scarcity is scarcity, no matter the reason, and as long as there is demand for those, they will get collected up and become more and more scarce and valuable. I find it so cool to find out that succeeding generations to mine aren't just in it for the money, but are instead true fans of the players, teams, sports, etc., they love, and those with the collecting gene are continuing the traditions of the hobby pretty much unabated and unchanged. What us old farts used to refer to derisively as "shiny stuff" just turns out to be the cards of heroes of the newer generations, not a bit different from the cards of our heroes. Not sure why I'm so surprised by this, but it's great to see. And the assumption seems to be that a substantial percentage of these collectors will at some point move into vintage as well, although I'm not sure why that even has to be part of the equation for the hobby to continue on in great health. That might just be showing a bias on the part of us older guys with vintage collections, and one that turns out to have little basis in fact. I don't know why a kid who grew up in the 90s should care about Mickey Mantle, Carl Hubbell, or Walter Johnson cards. And when they start having the disposable income to dip into the older markets, maybe they will, maybe they won't, time will tell. Anyway, thanks again, Tim, you've really opened my eyes to the intricacies of the modern hobby, and I appreciate it.

Hank...

Great topic. I think about the part highlighted in bold all the time. But then I set myself at ease by realizing that our generation never saw Cobb, Lajoie, Ruth, Gehrig, Foxx, Ott, Greenberg or even Joe DiMaggio play. Not to mention the really early guys like Ewing, Ward, Anson, Cy Young, etc. But we still respect and value their cards to the utmost extent. We may have grown up idolizing Mantle, Mays, Aaron, Clemente and Bench, but you naturally branch out as your hobby knowledge evolves.

I think that same thing will occur with future generations of collectors. Perhaps in a different way, but there will always be people out there who value and revere baseball's rich history just like we do (even if the player's image appears on dull paper vs, chrome!)

[toledo_mudhen]

Even tho I primarily collect 1955 Topps Baseball and T206s - I have always had a soft spot for :

1980 Topps Baseball
1983-84 Donruss Baseball
1987 Donruss Baseball

[darwinbulldog]

One corner of my collection is rookie cards of the top 50 players from each sport, so occasionally a current player will move onto that list, and then I'll add one of his cards. I added Nikola Jokic and Jimmy Butler earlier this year to my NBA group and just picked up Max Scherzer in the past month. I prefer the base/"paper" card just for consistency's sake to go along with my 1969 Topps Alcindor, 1958 Topps Jim Brown, 1954 Topps Aaron, etc. I have very little interest in the other cards from any of these sets but will occasionally buy a shiny autographed modern card of a prospect I particularly like.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by perezfan

Hank...Great topic. I think about the part highlighted in bold all the time. But then I set myself at ease by realizing that our generation never saw Cobb, Lajoie, Ruth, Gehrig, Foxx, Ott, Greenberg or even Joe DiMaggio play. Not to mention the really early guys like Ewing, Ward, Anson, Cy Young, etc. But we still respect and value their cards to the utmost extent. We may have grown up idolizing Mantle, Mays, Aaron, Clemente and Bench, but you naturally branch out as your hobby knowledge evolves. I think that same thing will occur with future generations of collectors. Perhaps in a different way, but there will always be people out there who value and revere baseball's rich history just like we do (even if the player's image appears on dull paper vs, chrome!)

I personally agree with this prediction, Mark, but a difference could arise from all the history of the game we learned from the backs of our Topps cards as well as all the reading we did from "Big-Time Baseball" in 1950 to "The Glory of Their Times" in 1966 and the succeeding generations of excellent biographies, team and era histories, etc., that whetted our appetites for older cards and collectibles. I'm not sure the younger generations today are indulging in that history and absorbing much of it into their collecting pursuits. If I had to guess, I'd say that many of them will at some point begin directing their disposable income toward vintage if for no other reason than that the older stuff is just so cool looking and so different from the modern designs, not to mention their so-far proven value as commodities.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by todeen

Hi Hank. I don't collect modern sets, but I collect modern singles. In modern, Topps flagship is called "paper" versus Chrome. You have base cards, short prints, super short prints, parallels, inserts, and insert parallels.

You are asking about scarcity: manufactured vs natural. If you wanted to collect natural scarcity in the modern market you would want to collect SP and SSP. These do not come in parallel form. They are very popular, but they don't seem to command the prices of manufactured scarcity. Even non-rookie SP and SSP are highly collectable for stars.

I'm pretty sure you understand the parallels that are numbered /99, /76, /50, and etc. Today, set collectors have been replaced by "Rainbow" collectors. These collectors want to get all the border combinations for a certain player. Rainbow collectors have two choices - paper vs chrome. Paper rainbows cost less. Chrome rainbows cost more.

I don't collect rainbows because I don't have that kind of money. I prefer to get cards in just a couple parallels. I like Xfractors, and I like the new Mega Box refractors sometimes called Silver Pack. If you are collecting the rainbow, anything /99 or less is desirable. Some collectors I know start at /50 or less for what they collect.

Let's look at 1993 Topps Derek Jeter. This existed before Topps Chrome. However, it's a nice introduction to parallels. You have the base paper RC, and then you have four parallels: Topps Gold, Inaugural Rockies Set, and Inaugural Marlins Set, and Topps Mini.

In 1996, Derek Jeter's rookie year coincided with the release of 1996 Topps Chrome. However, Topps did not release Topps Gold parallels that year. So in 1996 you have his base paper card, his base chrome card, and a Chrome refractor.

By the late 1990s, Topps Chrome began to expand their refractor parallels into Gold and Black. And in 2001, Topps brought back the paper Topps Gold parallel. This coincided with the rookie season of Ichiro and Pujols, and those parallels are expensive. By 2002, Topps had introduced the Xfractor. The 2002 Bowman Chrome Xfractor of Joey Votto is the big ticket item from that year. I wish I had one! And the Bowman Chrome gold signature parallel is another card that brings big bucks. I'm not sure gold signature is still around - I don't collect Bowman prospects.

Bowman is the real set where collectors flip and make money. When people complain about flippers, they make their most money with Bowman First prospect cards. This is where people spend $100k for an unproven prospect.

I learned a lot from this post, Tim - thanks

[BillyCoxDodgers3B]

I'm on the hunt for various junk wax commons all the time, but for autograph purposes. I don't deal in unsigned anything, but do have a lot of unsigned cards from this era (80's). I trade them to many people I've met online who still hand collate Junk Era sets. I will swap them their needs for my own.

It's really refreshing to see people eagerly collecting this material simply for the fun and memories. You know, growing up in the 80's and collecting modern in that era may not have made most of these then-kids rich, but it means that anybody of that age on any kind of budget can jump back into their youth for next to nothing! It's not completely a bad thing!

As a huge plus, the folks I've met who are into this sort of thing have been by and large very positive, kind and fair traders. Who doesn't need more of that in their lives? It also brings a bit of a chuckle to deal with people who will take the time to describe the slightest of dings in a one cent common and offer to send a photo to ensure I'm OK with the card! Bottom line, junk wax has really become an unexpected positive on this end. Who'da thunk it?
I get to help people complete sets that most of the world has consigned to the dustbins of their lives and I end up with some cards which will later get autographed.

(Hank--probably not what you were after at all, but thought I'd chip in with this, seeing as it does partially incorporate the "modern era" to which you were asking.)

[bbcard1]

I buy a pack now and then (probably less than $50 worth per year) and a factory and update set every year.

[oldjudge]

Hi Hank! I’m a big WNBA fan and I have a registry set of the rookie cards of the top 25 WNBA players ever, as voted in 2021. I also collect rookie and signature cards of other players I like. Up until a few years ago all the cards were either produced by Fleer or Rittenhouse. There are some genuine rarities amongst these. Rittenhouse, for example, released the cards as boxed sets. The largest printing for any year was 500 sets. That means that the total population of Breanna Stewart rookies is 500. Maya Moore’s rookie season of 2011 had a release of only about 200 sets. Those are incredibly low numbers. Panini has now taken over and we have huge print numbers with all the colored refractors. I don’t like the change but I’m sure it represents increased revenue for the league which it could surely use.

[brass_rat]

Several nights this week I watched the modern folks have trade night at Loews in their big lobby and outside the conference rooms. There were hundreds of people each night, and they were there starting around dinner time until past midnight.

I can't say that I understood exactly what they were doing or looking for, but a few observations:

• It was nice to see the during camaraderie across the group -- no matter what their card motives (collecting vs flipping) -- people of all ages and backgrounds were interacting in a respectful way. Many of them were just sitting around talking and hanging out which was great.
  
• I saw a few vintage cards in the mix... Red Cobb, Aaron, Robinson... Even a couple 52 Mantles just on the table or carpet floor where the younger folks were hanging out.
  
• If only three to five percent of modern folks filter down into vintage in the coming years, I wouldn't be surprised if that's enough to sustain the vintage market.

Also, while modern has manufactured scarcity, the players are relatable and accessible for the kids. I realized how the cards line up with pre-war:
In T206, Piedmont and Sweet Cap are the "base set". American Beauty, Polar Bear, Cycle, etc are the Refractors, and Broad Leaf and Drum are the 1/1 Superfractors.

Steve