Friends giving up collecting in 2023 - Post continuation

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Interesting article/report on state of the market generally. Seems to track a lot of what people on the board have reported last 6 months.

https://www.sportscollectorsdaily.co...84a65-83282852

Definitely get peoples attention, they’re are talking and writing, thanks for the link.

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Definitely get peoples attention, they’re are talking and writing, thanks for the link.

This got my attention:

Fractional sports cards and sports memorabilia finished the year down 35.9% and 26.7% respectively.

All I heard from those guys for many months was how eveyone who got involved with them was raking it in hand over fist. Then crickets.

Sort of reminds me back in 2008 how the NY Times had an article on the front page of their business section about how everyone from the UPS man to guys in barber shops were checking their stocks in real time like 100 times a day. UPS guy was delivering packages with one hand and watchin the stock ticker with his other hand. Barber shop couldn't turn the TV off of CNBC. Everyone was giddy. Making money was so easy. Swear the market shit the bed like 3 days later.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

This got my attention:

Fractional sports cards and sports memorabilia finished the year down 35.9% and 26.7% respectively.

All I heard from those guys for many months was how eveyone who got involved with them was raking it in hand over fist. Then crickets.

Sort of reminds me back in 2008 how the NY Times had an article on the front page of their business section about how everyone from the UPS man to guys in barber shops were checking their stocks in real time like 100 times a day. UPS guy was delivering packages with one hand and watchin the stock ticker with his other hand. Barber shop couldn't turn the TV off of CNBC. Everyone was giddy. Making money was so easy. Swear the market shit the bed like 3 days later.

Steve that whole fractional sports card hype was another failed attempt at pushing baseball cards as an investment. Anyone with half a brain knows that was ridiculous. Sports cards aren't shares of a business to own interest it, they're a hard asset.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Steve that whole fractional sports card hype was another failed attempt at pushing baseball cards as an investment. Anyone with half a brain knows that was ridiculous. Sports cards aren't shares of a business to own interest it, they're a hard asset.

Regardless Johnny, in times of economic instability and panic, many people often view "hard assets" as a viable alternative to the volatile marketplace. Think of people who buy gold, silver, and other precious metals as a potential hedge against that market instability. Whether any of us like it or not, there are many people that now look at cards as one of these "hard assets" that may be a viable alternative to the stock market and other investment vehicles. With the proliferation of TPG grading, AHs, online sellers/consignors, and even Ebay, cards are not such an illiquid asset as they may have been just a couple decades or so ago.

And the eventual drop in value of such "hard assets" as cards is not entirely unpredictable either. There are more than a few well known advisors out there telling people to put, and keep things, in cash for now, and leave it there until the overall market volatility factors start to play out and we can maybe get a better idea of where things are headed.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by BobC

Regardless Johnny, in times of economic instability and panic, many people often view "hard assets" as a viable alternative to the volatile marketplace. Think of people who buy gold, silver, and other precious metals as a potential hedge against that market instability. Whether any of us like it or not, there are many people that now look at cards as one of these "hard assets" that may be a viable alternative to the stock market and other investment vehicles. With the proliferation of TPG grading, AHs, online sellers/consignors, and even Ebay, cards are not such an illiquid asset as they may have been just a couple decades or so ago.

And the eventual drop in value of such "hard assets" as cards is not entirely unpredictable either. There are more than a few well known advisors out there telling people to put, and keep things, in cash for now, and leave it there until the overall market volatility factors start to play out and we can maybe get a better idea of where things are headed.

No doubt, I don't disagree. The point of my comment was this whole hype of fractionalizing shares of cards was an attempt to bring in perspective investors into BIG Time Expensive Cards that couldn't normally be purchased outright by most people due to the cost. To me in order for the card to be consider a Investment Type "Hard Asset Vehicle" Like Gold or Silver you need to actually own and posses said card. Not pieces of it.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

No doubt, I don't disagree. The point of my comment was this whole hype of fractionalizing shares of cards was an attempt to bring in perspective investors into BIG Time Expensive Cards that couldn't normally be purchased outright by most people due to the cost. To me in order for the card to be consider a Investment Type "Hard Asset Vehicle" Like Gold or Silver you need to actually own and posses said card. Not pieces of it.

Hey, I'm with you Johnny, but in the end, it seems to be the same idea/concept that you then actually own a piece of a physical card that does exist. Kind of like how card companies cut up bats and jerseys to create GUs cards for people that otherwise may not be able to afford buying the entire GU bat or jersey for their collection. At least it seems a little better than buying into an NFT or a crypto-currency that has absolutely nothing physical actually backing your investment up.

Having said all that, aren't there monetary and other types of funds you can buy into that supposedly do all the investing/buying, and then holding, those physical gold and silver assets for you as well? If so, then it isn't always all about having physical access/possession of an item. In the end, if there's any way someone can come up with an idea to make a buck off of someone else, they've already done it, or they're working on it. And that you can bet on! LOL

[Rhotchkiss]

It’s not for me, but I don’t have an issue with fractional ownership and/or investing in a fund that invests in cards/collectibles. Bottom line is that sports stuff has value. If it has value, you can invest in it- if value goes up, you make money; if value goes down, you lose money. Once something has value and can be an investment, people will find all sorts of ways to make money off it, both directly and as a secondary player to the investment (like auction house, offerer of shares, TPGs, etc).

From what I understand, Gretzky and the Kings owner partnered to buy the Gretzky Wagner. A partnership to own a card is necessarily a fractional share relationship. Suppose I go out and find 10 guys all willing to put in $100k to buy a $1mm item- whether we do it through a business entity (like an LLC) or on a handshake, it’s a fractional share relationship. Collectible simply takes that concept to an extreme.

Again, it is not for me and I do not, and likely will not, own a fractional share of a card or other collectible. But I certainly understand it, do not begrudge it, and see how (at least people thought) it could work.

As far as the OP’s question is concerned, I personally have witnessed cards exist as a viable hobby (and yes Investment) for 40 years, and from what I understand, the hobby (and the profit motives it sometimes brought) existed long before I came along. I expect this trend will continue for many years to come. In fact, I think the past few years brought a large influx of new collectors (or used to be collectors back) to the hobby, at least some of whom will stick. I don’t think the hobby is going anywhere. That said, I certainly expect people to take some money off the table, which means some may sell their entire collection. I have sold my entire collection twice, but always return like a moth to a flame. If stuff you own is worth a lot of money and you could use that money to do things better/more important than owning cardboard, sell the cards! I suspect most sellers are in this boat. Profit taking, however, is hardly the death knell of the hobby.

[todeen]

Originally Posted by BobC

Regardless Johnny, in times of economic instability and panic, many people often view "hard assets" as a viable alternative to the volatile marketplace. Think of people who buy gold, silver, and other precious metals as a potential hedge against that market instability. Whether any of us like it or not, there are many people that now look at cards as one of these "hard assets" that may be a viable alternative to the stock market and other investment vehicles. With the proliferation of TPG grading, AHs, online sellers/consignors, and even Ebay, cards are not such an illiquid asset as they may have been just a couple decades or so ago.

And the eventual drop in value of such "hard assets" as cards is not entirely unpredictable either. There are more than a few well known advisors out there telling people to put, and keep things, in cash for now, and leave it there until the overall market volatility factors start to play out and we can maybe get a better idea of where things are headed.

I buy silver as a hedge against an apocalyptic situation. Read it in a "preppers" book and thought it sounded reasonable. Gold will always be too expensive to use as real currency. I'm not certain my baseball cards would be considered currency/hard asset if something like a Civil War was to start and I needed to relocate in a hurry.

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[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by todeen

I buy silver as a hedge against an apocalyptic situation. Read it in a "preppers" book and thought it sounded reasonable. Gold will always be too expensive to use as real currency. I'm not certain my baseball cards would be considered currency/hard asset if something like a Civil War was to start and I needed to relocate in a hurry.

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My hedge against the apocalypse is Smith & Wesson. Can't kill a zombie with a silver coin.

[Yoda]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

My hedge against the apocalypse is Smith & Wesson. Can't kill a zombie with a silver coin.

Nor with a Mantle RC.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by todeen

I buy silver as a hedge against an apocalyptic situation. Read it in a "preppers" book and thought it sounded reasonable. Gold will always be too expensive to use as real currency. I'm not certain my baseball cards would be considered currency/hard asset if something like a Civil War was to start and I needed to relocate in a hurry.

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When the apocalypse comes, I will be swapping 5.56 and 7.62 for T cards. Bring your hall of famers by my bunker. I might not survive long.

In a SHTF world where all order has collapsed, I doubt much besides food, water, medication and especially ammunition would have value. I doubt such a situation is likely, thankfully.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Steve that whole fractional sports card hype was another failed attempt at pushing baseball cards as an investment. Anyone with half a brain knows that was ridiculous. Sports cards aren't shares of a business to own interest it, they're a hard asset.

[Snapolit1]

Always liked the old Wall Street expression "trees don't grow to the sky . . . ."

[BobC]

For those talking about fractional interests, at this point I really think it is more of a question of not if, but when! Just replace the word "art" in the article's title with "baseball cards", and you're all set for the future.

https://moneywise.com/investing/alte...+Pablo+Picasso

[kailes2872]

Count me among those in a big holding pattern. I tracked prices for so long that I have trouble pulling the trigger on anything now because it is so much more expensive than when it was when I started tracking it. In the past year, I have only bought a PSA 6 56 Minosa and a 55 PSA 6 Hodges to keep my HOF sets on the registry 100% complete. I kick myself on what I could have bought both of them for 4 years ago. I should have anticipated the hall and got them for a much less.

The prior year, I think that I only bought three or four cards. It is somewhat of a blessing that I got 90% through my collecting goals before the big spike. If I were a market timer, I would be giving myself a high five, but it makes it pretty crummy for a collector.

Somewhere along the way, a hobby became an asset class. I have thought about condensing my collection into a handful of true waterfront cards, but after sales tax and buyers premium, I would lose 30% of the value in the transaction. I would also have to make sure and keep those cards safe - so, at that point, I am just betting on those to appreciate faster than an investment and try to go visit them in a safe deposit box a few times a year.

At 50, with a junior in high school as my final one at home before the nest becomes empty, I am pretty sure that I am almost through with Pittsburgh winters. When that time comes, to Adam's point, I will have to decide if it is time to move on them or with them. We are still trying to figure out what that ultimate destination looks like. Is the house smaller than this one? Is it bigger? Do I want to deal with yard work and maintenance? If the place is smaller, do I have room for the collection? Yet, every time I get out a binder and look at a set, I remember why I love this hobby so much. I remember why I decided a decade or so ago to go get every set that I wanted so much as a kid but seemed so unaffordable at the time.

Also, (and maybe a Bob C. question), Do cards have a stepped up basis upon death? Said another way, if I keep them and then pass them on to the kids, is it like a house where their current market value is the stepped up value and they would not be subject to capital gains? Only subject to any federal inheritance tax above the maximum plus any state inheritance tax (PA is currently 4% but I don't plan on retiring here).

I get the occasional email from an auction house or two coming through the area and looking for consignments. I have thought about of it for some of the reasons above, but I can't yet part with them. It took a lot of work to build my collection. I am proud of it. I bought those cards, $10, $100, $1000 at a time. Some of them have increased exponentially. My only hope was to at least break even after fees but it will be some multiple of that when it is time to sell. But, until them, I'll make random trips to the basement and pull out a random binder and remember each card, where I bought it, how much I paid, and how much I enjoyed putting all of them together.