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When the market has fallen 20-25%, your risk floor is way, way lower, especially factoring in the absolute risk floor. It's a much better time to buy. The market is not good right now and prices are way lower. Makes more sense to buy now than when it is setting records. Of course, like I have said, it may be a better time to buy in 3, 6, 9, or 12 months from now. You can't time absolute lows or peaks beyond luck. But you can choose to buy when things are high or low. By buying this year instead of last year, that money is at 0% instead of -20%. All I'm gambling on when timing it, really, is that when in a new record high market, there will be a lower buying point in the future and I will just wait until it's lower. The odds of this strategy biting me in the rear are incredibly low. My gamble is simply that we will have periods of highs and lows and it is smarter to buy long holds during the lows, which the entire history of the market bears out. |
#2
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__________________
My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. Last edited by Peter_Spaeth; 10-22-2022 at 01:38 PM. |
#3
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Timing with retirement funds rather than cash is different; because of the tax implications. If I didn't use my corporate 401K, took it as cash, and put it in I would be losing almost 50% of that money to the government immediately as taxable income before I even invest it at all. I contribute to my 401K without timing, because my timing won't overcome the fat income tax hit of the feds and my state. |
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__________________
My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. Last edited by Peter_Spaeth; 10-22-2022 at 01:53 PM. |
#5
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Like I said, my position is to hold for the long haul for my future, not to sell whenever the market goes up. That is stupid, and isn't what I'm advocating. Don't realize gains anytime you have a gain. I sell if I see a bad future for that specific stock, otherwise I'm holding for the long haul and advocating that. Buy during the dips that repeats over and over and over through stock history. It goes up over time. But my gamble, that the economic high would not last forever and I'd see a better buying opportunity after months of setting records, was a very safe one. Records everywhere = high, down 20-25% = low. Things go up and down. It has never gone inexorably up without dips. We are in one right now, and everyone knows it. It may dip more in Q4, or Q1 23. But it's down a lot, and I've made a ton of profit by the simple gamble that the market has cycles and to buy when everything is setting records is foolish. I'm not saying sit out the market for 15+ years and miss all the gradual gains. I'm saying some big record points are not a smart time to buy the blue chips and indexes. They will go down again in future, and lower your floor and raise your eventual profit. I am in a much better position for my future safety by not buying at the big up spike points, which we know and identify in real time. |
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My final summation, and I've enjoyed the discussion, is that I disagree you can know spike points or much else in real time )2014 looked like a spike point in real time I am sure), but I think you are buying the right things and therefore you will do fine over time. But I think that will be a function of what you own, not of your timing in buying. Read Eugene Fama if you have not.
__________________
My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. Last edited by Peter_Spaeth; 10-22-2022 at 02:07 PM. |
#7
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