Gas prices and buying cards

[Exhibitman]

Yep, go to a politics site.

As for the OP, look at history. We've had several economic issues since collecting became a thing. Hell, the first few Nationals were held during a nasty recession. Don't forget 2007-2008, either. I came home from the 2007 National to find half my client base (real estate-related businesses) had collapsed. I had to sell cards that August to cover my expenses. Got better.

But I digress.

My $0.02 is that in times of economic downturn the super-expensive stuff moves independent of the news because the rich are basically immune from the sort of concerns that would affect sales. The art market is an example. It has no cyclical ties to the economy because the people buying are not reliant on the economy for their already-amassed wealth. The same is true of the low end. Guys who buy $1-$5 cards will still collect. It is cheaper and funner than a Starbucks. Even in the 2008-2009 recession, the dollar box tables at the National were hopping.

You also cannot forget the role of hybrid and electric cars in this. My wife has a Chevy Volt (electric) and I have a Ford C-Max. She puts in a small amount of gas once a year or so, and I fill up about once a month. At ten bucks a gallon my gas costs will go from $55 a month to $120 a month. Not an issue for me.

The part of the hobby that gets killed in a recession is the middle class of the hobby: the several hundred to low thousands segment. I wouldn't have an issue buying a $100 card in a downturn but definitely would have an issue buying a $5,000 card.

[egri]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

You also cannot forget the role of hybrid and electric cars in this. My wife has a Chevy Volt (electric) and I have a Ford C-Max. She puts in a small amount of gas once a year or so, and I fill up about once a month. At ten bucks a gallon my gas costs will go from $55 a month to $120 a month. Not an issue for me.

A couple years ago, two guys I used to work with who drove trucks and had killer commutes went out and bought Teslas. Even with a $500+ monthly payment and increased electric bill, the savings more than made up for it, and with gas prices now, I'm sure the math is even more in their favor.

[joshleon]

Originally Posted by egri

A couple years ago, two guys I used to work with who drove trucks and had killer commutes went out and bought Teslas. Even with a $500+ monthly payment and increased electric bill, the savings more than made up for it, and with gas prices now, I'm sure the math is even more in their favor.

I've read it depends on which electric utility market you're in. PacNW (for example) it makes sense bc electric costs are lower and gas prices higher.

The 100 mile range keeps me wary.

[Deertick]

Originally Posted by joshleon

The 100 mile range keeps me wary.

There is only one EV that has a 100 mi range, only six under 175. 90% are 200+ with the median around 260.

[joshuanip]

Interesting that the consensus is that inflation is negative to card prices. Well it definitely adds to volatility, but longer term, cards are a store of value. IMO, as the value of the dollar diminish, demand staying equal, the underlying value of the cards will rise along with inflation.

Increased gas prices will affect elastic goods, like retail and eating out. But veblen goods like gold, cards, jewelry, even purses (dear god dont tell my wife), should retain their value and actually increase.

[peanuts]

Originally Posted by joshuanip

Interesting that the consensus is that inflation is negative to card prices. Well it definitely adds to volatility, but longer term, cards are a store of value. IMO, as the value of the dollar diminish, demand staying equal, the underlying value of the cards will rise along with inflation.

Increased gas prices will affect elastic goods, like retail and eating out. But veblen goods like gold, cards, jewelry, even purses (dear god dont tell my wife), should retain their value and actually increase.

Cards are a store of value only as long as people remain interested in cards.
Should the inflationary pressure on budgets reach a point where people start distancing themselves from the hobby, and that trend is sustained, the thesis behind cards as an investment vehicle starts to show cracks.