T206 Honus Wagner SGC 3 What is the Over/Under

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

I don't think the final selling price will influence the average collector's spending habits. Will it move the needle on some Wagner issues...possible but I did not really see much ripple effect on the previous Wagner sales that took place earlier this year. I do think it gives elite collectors more confidence in the market but not sure the impact is the same on the rest.

Hi

I think all the big time purchases do have a trickle down effect. What happens is these big purchases

1. Creates excitement and buzz and creates News and publicity about the card collecting industry
2. Demand for cards increases at all price levels
3. As Supply declines because of both new collectors making purchases as well as when the high end supplies dry up the next level of cards becomes the supply that is available for purchase so people scramble for those thus increasing the value
4. More people are purchasing cards as long term investments so also taking cards off the market (just as collectors who had cards for a while are selling to make a profit) now these cards are bought and removed from the market place with new collectors/investors

Every Market Spike in Collections we have seen over the years had a market correction to a small degree but always higher then the start of the spike and then with time restarted to go up again.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

Hi

I think all the big time purchases do have a trickle down effect. What happens is these big purchases

1. Creates excitement and buzz and creates News and publicity about the card collecting industry
2. Demand for cards increases at all price levels
3. As Supply declines because of both new collectors making purchases as well as when the high end supplies dry up the next level of cards becomes the supply that is available for purchase so people scramble for those thus increasing the value
4. More people are purchasing cards as long term investments so also taking cards off the market (just as collectors who had cards for a while are selling to make a profit) now these cards are bought and removed from the market place with new collectors/investors

Every Market Spike in Collections we have seen over the years had a market correction to a small degree but always higher then the start of the spike and then with time restarted to go up again.

It sounds good but I disagree, I think these elite cards are their own thing and I've seen no evidence of any significant trickle down when big prices are reported for rare/elite cards.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

Hi

I think all the big time purchases do have a trickle down effect. What happens is these big purchases

1. Creates excitement and buzz and creates News and publicity about the card collecting industry
2. Demand for cards increases at all price levels
3. As Supply declines because of both new collectors making purchases as well as when the high end supplies dry up the next level of cards becomes the supply that is available for purchase so people scramble for those thus increasing the value
4. More people are purchasing cards as long term investments so also taking cards off the market (just as collectors who had cards for a while are selling to make a profit) now these cards are bought and removed from the market place with new collectors/investors

Every Market Spike in Collections we have seen over the years had a market correction to a small degree but always higher then the start of the spike and then with time restarted to go up again.

You are certainly entitled to your opinion and reasoning but, personally, I have not seen 2-4 on your list when a card like this Wagner is sold. Memory Lane just sold several elite cards that made headlines everywhere. I saw no jump in prices, etc as you have described. The excitement, imo, is limited to the excitement of collectors who can buy dozens of 50K plus cards or even as many 1 million dollar cards as they want. Prices and demand on those cards rise but not the rest of the market.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

You are certainly entitled to your opinion and reasoning but, personally, I have not seen 2-4 on your list when a card like this Wagner is sold. Memory Lane just sold several elite cards that made headlines everywhere. I saw no jump in prices, etc as you have described. The excitement, imo, is limited to the excitement of collectors who can buy dozens of 50K plus cards or even as many 1 million dollar cards as they want. Prices and demand on those cards rise but not the rest of the market.

Perhaps you are right and I am not disputing that. However, every Ruth Card (even not his rarest or most famous) all seem to have jump in price during this spike in sales.
All the Joe Jacksons cards have also jumped dramatically.
Regardless of the grade of Ruth or Jackson and regardless of the Card they all are going for alot more then normal.

[BobbyStrawberry]

My money's on the over at $6 million.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

Perhaps you are right and I am not disputing that. However, every Ruth Card (even not his rarest or most famous) all seem to have jump in price during this spike in sales.
All the Joe Jacksons cards have also jumped dramatically.
Regardless of the grade of Ruth or Jackson and regardless of the Card they all are going for alot more then normal.

Ruth cards have been very hot for over a year now...over and above their usual popularity. Honestly have not followed Jackson cards that closely. I was simply disputing that the market overall gets excited and prices rise over specific sales of elite cards. I think from the middle of last year until March sales of elite cards might have helped the market but the market was already flying. Since March prices overall have dropped on a huge portion of the market and elite sales have not impacted those drops from my pov.

Most people cannot afford to spend 100K on a card let alone spend 10K on a card more than once or twice . If those $100K+ cards are climbing so be it but it is not trickling down from what I am seeing. Not in the least.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Ruth cards have been very hot for over a year now...over and above their usual popularity. Honestly have not followed Jackson cards that closely. I was simply disputing that the market overall gets excited and prices rise over specific sales of elite cards. I think from the middle of last year until March sales of elite cards might have helped the market but the market was already flying. Since March prices overall have dropped on a huge portion of the market and elite sales have not impacted those drops from my pov.

Most people cannot afford to spend 100K on a card let alone spend 10K on a card more than once or twice . If those $100K+ cards are climbing so be it but it is not trickling down from what I am seeing. Not in the least.

I think the most one could say is that sometimes there is some very temporary FOMO from seeing big sales, never across the board though or in most sectors of what people buy. And if Ruth prices are up, I think that's explained by a genuine increase in demand, not by seeing a spike in one or two sales and a trickle down effect. I would argue it's the other way around, that the high sales are the result of increased demand in the first place.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I think the most one could say is that sometimes there is some very temporary FOMO from seeing big sales, never across the board though or in most sectors of what people buy. And if Ruth prices are up, I think that's explained by a genuine increase in demand, not by seeing a spike in one or two sales and a trickle down effect. I would argue it's the other way around, that the high sales are the result of increased demand in the first place.

Hi Peter and Chase

Thanks for your thoughts on this. Some interesting and diverse ways of looking at the market.
This is one of the great things about these threads and these Forums

either way I enjoy my Collection and seeing others collections and the chase in trying to get the cards we all want

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

Hi Peter and Chase

Thanks for your thoughts on this. Some interesting and diverse ways of looking at the market.
This is one of the great things about these threads and these Forums

either way I enjoy my Collection and seeing others collections and the chase in trying to get the cards we all want

Just looked at your collection...very nice. Much to envy there.