Anyone watching the insane basketball card prices?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Pete Townsend was wrong.

[vintagewhitesox]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Pete Townsend was wrong.

Mama DOESN'T have a squeeze box, you are telling me?

in basketball, stick with MJ, Kobe, Lebron. wont go wrong.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Imagine if businesses started popping up out of the blue where you could own a piece of a high valued graded card and the valuation on the card was done by the owner of the card who is an owner of the company?

Not quite as pithy as "Imagine all the people living life in peace" but it does have a certain je ne sais quoi to it.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Pete Townsend was wrong.

Well 4 years ago is almost a lifetime ago...that is almost 28 years if you are a dog so it is easy to forget when there is so much passion in the air from the game changers.

[Peter_Spaeth]

You have to wonder how much of it was accomplished, as it was before, by "sales" never paid for.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

You have to wonder how much of it was accomplished, as it was before, by "sales" never paid for.

Do you actually have to wonder? I am sure there have to be some people who wished they had not paid.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Do you actually have to wonder? I am sure there have to be some people who wished they had not paid.

You also have to wonder how the extended return periods (as I understand it anyhow) might play into it. If you follow Blowout, on this new Topps issue (Project 2020) where cards were run to the moon then dropped to the ocean floor, there apparently were a huge number of returns from unprincipled people with buyer's remorse.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

You also have to wonder how the extended return periods (as I understand it anyhow) might play into it. If you follow Blowout, on this new Topps issue (Project 2020) where cards were run to the moon then dropped to the ocean floor, there apparently were a huge number of returns from unprincipled people with buyer's remorse.

Yes I saw some of that on that board. I just figured in most cases they had to be millennials having remorse as opposed to some price manipulation but who knows. The vast window for returns leaves a lot of sellers vulnerable for returns on everything that was run up that has made its way back down or is heading there.

Hang on to the funds fellas ya might have to give them back 4 months from now. Book the sale and the contingent liability!

[Exhibitman]

What am I missing? I just read eBay's return policy and (assuming you do not accept returns) it states that a buyer has 30 days from delivery to claim the item was not as described and return it, 30 days from the end of the delivery window to claim it was not received. How does that morph into four months? Is that on the assumption that the buyer used a credit card and initiated a charge-back?

[samosa4u]

All of you guys are a bunch of silly monkeys!

First of all, all these buyers of super-inflated sports cards are just very passionate collectors (like Gary Vee). None of them are going to return these cards - nope! Many of them have done well for themselves financially, so what's a few dollars here and there? I mean, if a $15,000 USD card drops to $3,000 USD in a few months, then who cares, right? It's all about having fun! I'm sorry, what was that? Discord servers? Groups organizing pumps of certain cards? Oh rubbish! I don't want to hear it!

[samosa4u]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

What am I missing? I just read eBay's return policy and (assuming you do not accept returns) it states that a buyer has 30 days from delivery to claim the item was not as described and return it, 30 days from the end of the delivery window to claim it was not received. How does that morph into four months? Is that on the assumption that the buyer used a credit card and initiated a charge-back?

Paypal gives the buyer 180 days to return an item, and that's a pretty long time. Some of these cards have already lost half their value in just a few weeks!

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by samosa4u

Paypal gives the buyer 180 days to return an item, and that's a pretty long time. Some of these cards have already lost half their value in just a few weeks!

If you follow the eBay platform requirements and you have proof of delivery then the eBay seller protection should apply.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

If you follow the eBay platform requirements and you have proof of delivery then the eBay seller protection should apply.

Not sure how this works with the new Managed Payments system however when sellers were taking payments directly from paypal they could in fact be on the hook up to 6 months from the date of purchase. I cannot see how this is any different now unless ebay is indemnifying sellers and only allowing for a 30 day window to buyers for returns.

My guess is that if a buyer uses paypal and decided 4 months after the date of purchase that they changed their mind, and they used a credit card and initiates a dispute, paypal is going to refund the buyer and ebay will take the money back from the seller. Not sure what paypal's policies are if the payment was funded from a bank account or from paypal funds. I doubt they offer that 180 day window.

[Exhibitman]

This all makes consigning to an auction house more attractive. Unfortunately, for a quick sale eBay is the only way to go. You just have to take the risks and hope for the best.

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Not sure how this works with the new Managed Payments system however when sellers were taking payments directly from paypal they could in fact be on the hook up to 6 months from the date of purchase. I cannot see how this is any different now unless ebay is indemnifying sellers and only allowing for a 30 day window to buyers for returns.

My guess is that if a buyer uses paypal and decided 4 months after the date of purchase that they changed their mind, and they used a credit card and initiates a dispute, paypal is going to refund the buyer and ebay will take the money back from the seller. Not sure what paypal's policies are if the payment was funded from a bank account or from paypal funds. I doubt they offer that 180 day window.

Yeah, but I assume a chargeback isn't the same as a return. A chargeback that happens after a return window has closed, denotes a fraudulent charge. At that point the buyer is attempting to keep both the card AND the funds, which I assume is a criminal activity.

I am making some assumptions here, and not saying there aren't plenty of people willing to go that route, but are that many people willing to commit a financial crime in order to try and cut their losses?

Again, I'm making assumptions. Feel free to correct me if I am wrong.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

Yeah, but I assume a chargeback isn't the same as a return. A chargeback that happens after a return window has closed, denotes a fraudulent charge. At that point the buyer is attempting to keep both the card AND the funds, which I assume is a criminal activity.

I am making some assumptions here, and not saying there aren't plenty of people willing to go that route, but are that many people willing to commit a financial crime in order to try and cut their losses?

Again, I'm making assumptions. Feel free to correct me if I am wrong.

You can dispute a credit card charge for a number of reasons and each bank has their own rules and conditions and the reasons can be liberally interpreted. If someone changed their mind and wanted to return the item in the exact condition it is in, I think there is a manner in which they could do it. The longer the period of time that passes after the purchase, I am sure the more hurdles the buyer would have to jump through to have the bank side with them but the threat does exist. Pretty certain that AMEX offers 6 months and most banks that issue V/MC are as many as 4 months.

I have not read closely the recent terms/policies with paypal but as Exhibitman suggests, this hanging over a seller's head is enough to go with an auction house consignment rather than leaving one exposed selling on ebay.

The other option is to stay clear of selling cards that go up 5X in 2 weeks.

[Lorewalker]

No idea how ebay's new managed payment system plays in this but here is how paypal addresses refunds:

You can request a refund of a completed payment by sending the seller an email. Ask the seller to go to the Transaction Details page for your transaction and click Issue a refund.

You can request a refund up to 180 days after you pay for your item. If you sent a payment, but it's still pending, you can cancel it on your Activity as long as you see the "Cancel" button next to it. If the payment isn't claimed within 30 days, it will be automatically refunded to you.

If your seller doesn’t agree to refund your money, you may be able to open a dispute in the Resolution Center if you didn’t receive your item, you received something that doesn’t match the seller’s description or your payment was not authorized.

If you purchased something and would like a refund because you haven't received it, or it's not as described, you can file a dispute in our Resolution Center to start the process of getting your money back.

You have 180 days from the transaction date to initiate a dispute.

If your eBay payment is complete, but you didn't receive your item, it's not as described or the auction got canceled, you'll need to file a dispute. You can do this in eBay's Resolution Center or the PayPal Resolution Center.

If you feel the transaction was unauthorized, please visit our Resolution Center to file an unauthorized transaction dispute.

There are 2 kinds of disputes you can file:

Item Not Received – You bought something, but didn’t receive it. (Wait at least 3 days from the transaction date to give your seller enough time to ship the item.)
Significantly Not as Described – You received an item, but it was significantly different from the seller’s original description. (You might have to pay return shipping costs, but may be eligible for Return Shipping on US. Activate Return Shipping on US before filing your dispute to qualify for the benefit.)

If you sent the payment using a debit or credit card, the refund will be sent to the card used. It may take up to 30 days for the card to be credited. If you sent your payment using a bank account and the payment is canceled, it will be refunded to your bank account.

***Bank funded transactions: for cases in which a refund is requested or processed shortly after a purchase is made, we will make an effort to cancel the transaction, so you are never charged. If we’re unable to cancel the transaction, then a refund will be processed. Your funds should be credited to your bank account within 7-10 business days.

In addition I think you can go around paypal by going directly to the bank issuing the credit card and open a dispute that way. If that is done however I believe you waive your rights to filing a dispute with paypal directly should it not work out.

[samosa4u]

Good afternoon, everybody! Are we ready to look at some more basketball cards today? How about the 61' Fleers? For those of you who aren't aware, the 61' Fleer set is regarded as the greatest vintage basketball set of all-time. It is loaded with stars, and most importantly, it has the rookies of Wilt Chamberlain, Jerry West and Oscar Robertson. Let's begin!

1961 Fleer Oscar Robertson:

PSA 7 - August price peaked at $16,000 USD.
Now going for under $8,000 USD.

1961 Fleer Wilt Chamberlain:

PSA 7 - August price peaked at $24,999 USD.
Last one sold for $15,300 USD.

1961 Fleer Jerry West:

PSA 7 - August price peaked at $12,600 USD.
Last one sold for $8,500 USD.

I also want to point out that MOST of these cards were sold privately (Paypal direct). In other words, during the month of August, somebody could have sold TWO PSA 7 Oscar Robertson rookies for around $40,000 USD. And of course, money sent this way is sometimes done using the Family & Friends method. And you know what that means, right? NO RETURNS!


Bert shouldn't have listened too much to Gary Vee!

[sportscardpete]

It is unfortunate for anyone who bought in August, but other than that month I am pretty sure whoever bought basketball in any other month this year is still sitting pretty? Bert may not be so mad.

[samosa4u]

Originally Posted by sportscardpete

It is unfortunate for anyone who bought in August, but other than that month I am pretty sure whoever bought basketball in any other month this year is still sitting pretty? Bert may not be so mad.

I think they're going to keep going down.

[sportscardpete]

Originally Posted by samosa4u

I think they're going to keep going down.

And I think if they get cut in half from these "reduced" levels most people will be okay. a PSA 7 Chamberlain at 7k is probably still above what most people paid. I don't buy any of the prices in August I think it was super artificial.

I wonder what happens to other hot cards, like a Jim Brown rookie. It's not really rare, but prices have basically doubled over the past month. And now it looks like Gretzky is picking up too.

Definitely a hard hobby to figure out. Maybe that's why I am so gray at an early age!!

[samosa4u]

Originally Posted by sportscardpete

And I think if they get cut in half from these "reduced" levels most people will be okay. a PSA 7 Chamberlain at 7k is probably still above what most people paid. I don't buy any of the prices in August I think it was super artificial.

There are lots of people who bought basketball cards over the summer months, Pete. The bottom line is that a lot of people got screwed.

[Exhibitman]

I thought really hard about selling my Russell RC when it soared but I figured that even if it fell by 50% off the peak it was still more than I wanted to spend on a replacement card, so I kept it. Same w/my Chamberlain IA, Alcindor, and a few others. I may replace some of the cards I sold if they fall far enough.

About the only card I never even considered selling was my 1969 Chamberlain, which I got when I was about ten and will probably have until the day I die. I also sat on my favorite Dr. J card because, well, it is my favorite Dr. J card and it wasn't worth anything like the RC.

As for Jim Brown's RC, if it skyrockets I will probably sell mine. Hard to say; the way I got it is a 'big fish' story that actually worked out for me spectacularly, so the numbers would have to be really nasty to make me part with it.

[Peter_Spaeth]

We don't really know how many of the off the charts sales actually went through. In 2016, many did not, both on ebay and auction houses.

[samosa4u]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

We don't really know how many of the off the charts sales actually went through. In 2016, many did not, both on ebay and auction houses.

Well, this definitely makes things more complicated. I think maybe some of the fake sales could have taken place earlier in order to get things started, but once things had taken off, then I don't think it was necessary. But then again, with all the craziness that happens frequently in hobby, anything is possible.

[therooster80]

To add some context, I was the buyer of the 1961 Fleer Russell IA 7 mentioned up thread. It sold for $700. I received it, didn’t care for its presentation, and sold it the next day for $800 after receiving multiple offers on it. There is still dramatically increased attention to 1961 Fleer relative to 2019 even if the prices of completed auctions have dropped over the last month or 2.

There is a lot of good information in this thread. I started my own index of 10 particular vintage cards to track. Alcindor, Erving, Gervin, Chamberlain, Bird/Magic RCs and 5 others. Every 2 weeks I pull the latest non PWCC prices. There was a massive falloff from late August to early September. Personally I started buying vintage FB in June and am now starting on vintage baseball while the wild price variances in basketball shake out.

[japhi]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Your table is selective. This PSA data run is a more complete one (qualified card sales removed):

9/11/2020 $3,935.00 8 373188936799 eBay probstein123 1 43398000
9/8/2020 $5,100.00 8 383696317759 eBay probstein123 1 26597579
9/8/2020 $3,550.51 8 373176595500 eBay probstein123 1 28698213
9/8/2020 $3,700.00 8 363089218562 eBay probstein123 1 11244668
9/8/2020 $3,850.00 8 174417779408 eBay cardkast 1 02525478
9/7/2020 $4,938.00 8 274474367911 eBay pkrface Auction 06341751
9/5/2020 $6,500.00 8 224116457849 eBay kjam6885 3 27081984
9/1/2020 $8,100.00 8 402373764131 eBay pwcc_auctions Auction 24736345
9/1/2020 $7,400.00 8 402373763798 eBay pwcc_auctions Auction 26880780
9/1/2020 $7,001.00 8 402373763793 eBay pwcc_auctions Auction 40890222
8/27/2020 $7,500.00 8 264844802944 eBay heyticketguy 3 06040208
8/25/2020 $1,540.00 8 (OC) 373152398426 eBay probstein123 Auction 19202030
8/25/2020 $7,600.00 8 383681510477 eBay probstein123 Auction 30884321
8/24/2020 $9,000.00 8 224128905953 eBay dand52261 Best Offer 25052507
8/24/2020 $7,000.00 8 402367199324 eBay allstar-cards Auction 23767118
8/24/2020 $10,766.00 8 143682543527 eBay pwcc_auctions Auction 17134304
8/24/2020 $9,600.00 8 402361549305 eBay pwcc_auctions Auction 14761030
8/24/2020 $9,600.00 8 143682543448 eBay pwcc_auctions Auction 15717326
8/21/2020 $7,800.00 8 373148122396 eBay probstein123 Auction 40007138
8/16/2020 $9,500.00 8 224119415187 eBay dand52261 Best Offer 25052507
8/15/2020 $9,500.00 8 233680871242 eBay thecrimsonchild Best Offer 30376241
8/12/2020 $8,750.00 8 254684751727 eBay cbjoe Best Offer 25800102
8/11/2020 $8,080.00 8 Is PSADNA 363066455830 eBay probstein123 Auction 22787604
8/11/2020 $810.11 8 (OC) 154032821749 eBay flabledec Auction 47117710
8/8/2020 $6,499.99 8 133487902934 eBay lilybethtaylor37 Best Offer 09037750
8/7/2020 $5,200.00 8 303638834203 eBay eevans1552 Auction 02008685
8/6/2020 $5,995.00 8 363063453158 eBay icaancards Buy It Now 44210520
8/4/2020 $4,599.00 8 363059514181 eBay probstein123 Auction 50069088
8/2/2020 $5,555.00 8 203064842853 eBay exhibitman Buy It Now 28920782
7/30/2020 $4,799.99 8 264813410421 eBay the-eleven-club Buy It Now 26311199
7/30/2020 $5,677.88 8 353144777757 eBay pwcc_auctions Auction 18737805
7/28/2020 $4,500.00 8 303631051655 eBay dr.sportzcardzenmore-scs Auction 05016321
7/27/2020 $4,500.00 8 333667008189 eBay djoppan-66 Buy It Now 25568929
7/27/2020 $4,500.00 8 283959942576 eBay rochester9002 Buy It Now 14993384
7/27/2020 $4,300.00 8 363058844697 eBay tbh39 Best Offer 44704777
7/24/2020 $4,600.00 8 373117534771 eBay probstein123 Auction 30899904
7/23/2020 $3,383.99 8 143654274282 eBay pwcc_auctions Auction 22034630
7/23/2020 $3,410.00 8 353135923739 eBay pwcc_auctions Auction 23556592
7/22/2020 $2,995.00 8 363053869399 eBay icaancards Buy It Now 40732438
/7/2020 $2,459.99 8 254609225712 eBay graded_psa_cards Best Offer 02012346
7/6/2020 $1,425.00 8 254636781845 eBay nolacali2 Auction 02085183
6/27/2020 $1,850.00 8 133449445410 eBay jackmay Buy It Now 46894492
/22/2020 $1,925.00 8 274390399232 eBay ez01 Best Offer 60117972
6/13/2020 $1,650.00 8 333614881923 eBay selut-14 Best Offer 26566064
6/12/2020 $1,459.09 8 124215022217 eBay kencope Auction 30376241
6/7/2020 $1,850.00 8 233604685400 eBay thiel12 Buy It Now 27081984
6/3/2020 $1,818.00 8 383563060432 eBay probstein123 Auction 06318666
6/1/2020 $1,913.00 8 402270041474 eBay pwcc_auctions Auction 25325982
5/31/2020 $1,850.00 8 264735280718 eBay sportssource2 Best Offer 02147479
/26/2020 $1,620.00 8 44178 Heritage Auctions Auction 02005029
5/22/2020 $1,483.00 8 264731235157 eBay honestjackcards Auction 01084409
5/21/2020 $1,791.00 8 402257335001 eBay pwcc_auctions Auction 15606771
5/5/2020 $1,680.00 8 373034658494 eBay probstein123 Auction 43261729
5/1/2020 $1,341.00 8 143585894677 eBay pwcc_auctions Auction 01084409
4/22/2020 $1,109.00 8 143578316417 eBay pwcc_auctions Auction 27337477
4/20/2020 $1,020.00 8 2261 Robert Edward Auctions 2020 Spring Auction 06088847
4/20/2020 $1,110.00 8 2262 Robert Edward Auctions 2020 Spring Auction 27958112
3/27/2020 $1,099.00 8 254550547893 eBay wildavi-28 Buy It Now 27320761
3/25/2020 $915.76 8 114155220433 eBay goldustnrouge Auction 45816396
3/22/2020 $1,125.00 8 402157198613 eBay pwcc_auctions Auction 03693313
3/22/2020 $1,236.00 8 143553760087 eBay pwcc_auctions Auction 31636188
3/9/2020 $982.00 8 362932131281 eBay probstein123 Auction 28212796


Now, removing the PWCC and Probstein results because, you know, they strike some as about as genuine as a stripper's boobs:

9/8/2020 $3,850.00 8 174417779408 eBay cardkast 1 02525478
9/7/2020 $4,938.00 8 274474367911 eBay pkrface Auction 06341751
9/5/2020 $6,500.00 8 224116457849 eBay kjam6885 3 27081984
8/27/2020 $7,500.00 8 264844802944 eBay heyticketguy 3 06040208
8/24/2020 $9,000.00 8 224128905953 eBay dand52261 Best Offer 25052507
8/24/2020 $7,000.00 8 402367199324 eBay allstar-cards Auction 23767118
8/16/2020 $9,500.00 8 224119415187 eBay dand52261 Best Offer 25052507
8/15/2020 $9,500.00 8 233680871242 eBay thecrimsonchild Best Offer 30376241
8/12/2020 $8,750.00 8 254684751727 eBay cbjoe Best Offer 25800102
8/11/2020 $8,080.00 8 Is PSADNA 363066455830 eBay probstein123 Auction 22787604
8/8/2020 $6,499.99 8 133487902934 eBay lilybethtaylor37 Best Offer 09037750
8/7/2020 $5,200.00 8 303638834203 eBay eevans1552 Auction 02008685
8/6/2020 $5,995.00 8 363063453158 eBay icaancards Buy It Now 44210520
8/2/2020 $5,555.00 8 203064842853 eBay exhibitman Buy It Now 28920782
7/30/2020 $4,799.99 8 264813410421 eBay the-eleven-club Buy It Now 26311199
7/28/2020 $4,500.00 8 303631051655 eBay dr.sportzcardzenmore-scs Auction 05016321
7/27/2020 $4,500.00 8 333667008189 eBay djoppan-66 Buy It Now 25568929
7/27/2020 $4,500.00 8 283959942576 eBay rochester9002 Buy It Now 14993384
7/27/2020 $4,300.00 8 363058844697 eBay tbh39 Best Offer 44704777
7/22/2020 $2,995.00 8 363053869399 eBay icaancards Buy It Now 40732438
/7/2020 $2,459.99 8 254609225712 eBay graded_psa_cards Best Offer 02012346
7/6/2020 $1,425.00 8 254636781845 eBay nolacali2 Auction 02085183
6/27/2020 $1,850.00 8 133449445410 eBay jackmay Buy It Now 46894492
/22/2020 $1,925.00 8 274390399232 eBay ez01 Best Offer 60117972
6/13/2020 $1,650.00 8 333614881923 eBay selut-14 Best Offer 26566064
6/12/2020 $1,459.09 8 124215022217 eBay kencope Auction 30376241
6/7/2020 $1,850.00 8 233604685400 eBay thiel12 Buy It Now 27081984
5/31/2020 $1,850.00 8 264735280718 eBay sportssource2 Best Offer 02147479
/26/2020 $1,620.00 8 44178 Heritage Auctions Auction 02005029
5/22/2020 $1,483.00 8 264731235157 eBay honestjackcards Auction 01084409
4/20/2020 $1,020.00 8 2261 Robert Edward Auctions 2020 Spring Auction 06088847
4/20/2020 $1,110.00 8 2262 Robert Edward Auctions 2020 Spring Auction 27958112
3/27/2020 $1,099.00 8 254550547893 eBay wildavi-28 Buy It Now 27320761
3/25/2020 $915.76 8 114155220433 eBay goldustnrouge Auction 45816396

This presents a more complete picture of the price movements since the start of the pandemic run-up.

I generally agree that there was a bubble of prices that hit its height last month and may have started downward this month (need to see a few more sales to confirm a trend, I think). My guess as to why is the various stimulus packages running out. When the government was throwing free money at us, people spent it on cards and the fact that they were skyrocketing made it seem like a smart bet. That looks to have ended starting 7/31 with the end of extended unemployment benefits and (more important, I think) the start of the end of the spending of the 2nd wave of money from the SBA loans under the PPP program (for those who don't follow it, these were loans that you could have forgiven if you shoveled the money out the door on payroll and overhead expenses--and the initial law required you to spend it in eight weeks--so many small business owners were able to use the loans to pay themselves as employees of their entities, effectively getting a free pool of money).

What will be interesting is to see if the pattern holds for other cards that have had strong run-ups over the last six months. Even more interesting will be to see if the prices drop all at once.

FWIW, I thought the Dr. J. RC was grossly undervalued at the levels of a year ago. My thinking was that $1500-$2000 is about right for a PSA 8 caliber example.

My take on the PSA 8 data is that stimulus took the card from 900 to 1800 and the leap to 9k, and the subsequent 70% decline, is due to price manipulation.

This is the exact same pattern that played out a few years back with Rose, Koufax, Clemente etc. Manipulators target a stack of cards and pump the shit out of them.

Incredibly easy to do, and because there is no regulation or over sight, this pattern will continue to repeat.

Yes new money has entered the hobby and that money has figured out how easy it is to take a position, and pump the snot out of a portfolio if cards. Easy money with almost no downside.

[pete zouras]

purchased directly from a local collector, West, Robertson, Baylor, Chamberlain and Cousey, and I told him the headwinds based on ebay completed sales wouldn't last, plus I was buying raw and good luck getting favorable grades, etc. I still gave him more than I wanted to, but far less than they are going for now. Curious what people think dealers would offer for 61 fleers in this market.

[pete zouras]

Sorry for double post.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by pete zouras

purchased directly from a local collector, West, Robertson, Baylor, Chamberlain and Cousey, and I told him the headwinds based on ebay completed sales wouldn't last, plus I was buying raw and good luck getting favorable grades, etc. I still gave him more than I wanted to, but far less than they are going for now. Curious what people think dealers would offer for 61 fleers in this market.

Well, "more than I wanted to, but far less than they are going for now" sounds about right. My completely unscientific experience is that ungraded sells for about 1/3 of graded, especially for the stuff where it makes sense to slab even the lower grade cards.