Aaron Judge

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by bigfanNY

yeah I agree with most here and would not go heavy on Judge but Sanchez on the other hand? maybe ....maybe..

The problem with Sanchez is that his track record--minor league stats, with a fairly large sample size--don't reflect anything like that kind of production. Either a short term fluke (a la Ron Swoboda--10 HR's in his first 118 AB while batting .271 during that period in '65), or he had some artificial additive assistance. Sanchez had some decent to good HR stats in the minors over a pretty fair number of years, but nothing remotely resembling a homer per every 10 AB.

Regards,

Larry

[packs]

I think that's a pretty big reach. Sanchez hit a total of 30 homers last year. He hit 25 homers total the year before accounting for his various minor league stops. I don't see anything out of the ordinary with his production. He of course won't hit home runs at that pace over a full year, but there's no reason not to believe he is a 30 homer guy.

[D. Bergin]

Sanchez is solid, and he's young with room to grow. Barring injuries he should have a good career.

Catching is a tough position. I'd be happy with Jorge Posada type production out of him at the plate, while being superior to Posada defensively.

Whether that's "investment" level for a modern player is another thing. There's always short term hype..........long term on modern cards, I think the pool of players is really small you'd want to bother with. There will be a bunch of borderline HOF'er guys most people won't care about 15 years from now.......and projecting ANY young player not named Mike Trout out to HOF status is a big reach.......borderline or not.

Baseball is littered with guys who put up big stats the first 5-10 years of their career or so, only to fizzle out too early for collectors to pay too much attention to them years down the line.

[packs]

Very true. Just look at David Wright. His career parallels Mattingly almost exactly. Nomar and Joe Mauer are other names that come to mind. On the pitching side I'm sure everyone assumed Johan and Lincecum were destined for all time great statuses too.

[clydepepper]

Meanwhile (as crickets can be heard chirping over a vast and lonely open space), I invested in Joey Gallo.

[r0ck8ott0m]

Originally Posted by clydepepper

Meanwhile (as crickets can be heard chirping over a vast and lonely open space), I invested in Joey Gallo.

As I think all these players are good and way to early to
Make an investment but that being said that puts the whole excitement in the collecting a young player. It's a huge swing if you invest in the right player who's cards are relatively cheap but it can easily go the other way lol. If I had to choose right now besides the obvious would be correa. I think the way he is on the field defensively, size, speed and a big bat all outshinesthe players mentioned in this thread. He would be my pick for future HOF.

[packs]

Gary Sanchez put on a show today. Do not run on that man.

[ls7plus]

I've changed my opinion on Aaron Judge. Watched him quite a bit last year, and he had holes on inside corner fastballs and sliders down and away, chasing the latter out of the zone and down into the dirt. After seeing him several times this year, it appears that he has moved back off the plate, taking advantage of his long arms, so that if a pitch appears inside, it almost certainly is, and he takes it instead of getting jammed or swinging and missing. Now, anything on the inside corner appears to him to be middle/in, or even middle/middle.

He's also far enough off the plate that he can't reach the slider in the lower, outside corner that he used to see as a fastball, and chase it into the dirt. For the most part (one exception last night), he knows he can't even reach it and lays off. If the pitcher hits that low outside corner now with a fastball, you simply tip your cap to him, as doing that is not so easy, and persisting in that attempt, unless the pitcher has really good command, is a very good way to get behind in the count. It's also a very tough pitch to do anything with in any event, unless you are Miguel Cabrera.

Last night, against Toronto, he hit a 450 foot homer over the centerfield fence, and didn't even have to swing that hard to do so. He is also a good fielder with a strong arm. I don't know that he will continue to hit .320 or .330 with 35-40 (or even more?) homeruns, but it does look like he is going to be very good, at this still very early point in his career. Also saw the interview with Eduardo Perez and this seems to be a very smart young man, understanding quite well the hitter-pitcher battle that is at the heart of the game, how they are trying to get him out, and willing and able to adjust.

I don't invest in such young phenoms until they have proved their worth and are in their mid to late 30's downslide, when demand has usually diminished, but he is definitely worth keeping an eye on.

Best of luck in your collecting,


Larry

[MattyC]

I think Judge has made great strides and adjustments, in terms of his approach at the plate. That is what you want to see in a young player. He's laying off the low outside pitch that got him so much last year. His power to all fields is electrifying. His attitude is affable and humble. He also has an intangible star quality. If he hits 40+ HRs and keeps the average and K's respectable, the pinstripes and the accompanying media stage will combine to make him quite popular.

[packs]

I have been completely surprised by Judge's season thus far. He looks like a totally different hitter. The same power is there but he's able to make more of it with his ability to limit his poor swings and stay off the garbage. I did not expect him to be able to do that at all. Don't know if it'll hold up but he's really opened my eyes at least.