Hank Aaron card values

[KCRfan1]

RATS, I been enjoying the post made by you and others, but your are naive if you do not believe the " angry " letters Aaron received were not based on race and skin color. You believe what you wish, but it is well documented that is exactly what the letters were.

[ALR-bishop]

I think Rats is enjoying all this immensely, and I do not think he is naive. A little devious maybe, but not naive

[KCRfan1]

Maybe a little trolling, and poking the bear a bit. LOL

[71buc]

I was curious what people here thought about the 1954 Johnston Cookie Aaron rookie card's current value and if it would also enjoy a similar increase in value? I think that as the Topps version climbs others may see it as an attractive if not more affordable option. Thankfully I have both but have little knowledge of the value of more scarce regional issues versus the mainstream versions. There certainly seem to be fewer of the Johnston Cookies rookie Aaron's out there.

[MCoxon]

Great question on Johnston's Cookies - I'll bet regional and non-mainstream Topps issues will rise, relative to their Topps counterparts, especially in cases where there prices are lower even though they are more scarce.

I recently picked up a '57 Sohio Maris and love it. I think it must be much rarer than his '58 Topps, and like it for that reason.

Others will say Topps (and early Bowman, Goudey, Playball, etc.) will always hold sway among collectors and command premiums to non-mainstream cards, but I'm not so sure. I think there's a chance collectors will move their desires to regionals as they seek out "scarcity".

Even within mainstream cards, there's been a shift to buying on condition - a form of scarcity. Collectors today spend multiples on a PSA 8 or 9 cards compared to a PSA 7. I don't think that the price difference was so high for a Nr-Mt vs. a NM-MT card vs. a Mint card in the 1970s and 1980s (admittedly, due to the objectivity that TPGs bring).

I suspect people are bidding up prices on cards with low PSA pop numbers. For instance, I'll bet there are roughly the same number of 1959 Mantles in Nr-MT or better condition today as compared to 1985 (maybe more, as hidden stacks of cards are found). Let's say 5,000 1959 Mantle cards exist today at "Nr-MT or better" -- using Beckett's 1987 condition guides, and regardless of whether they're slabbed or not.

But there are now only 308 1959 Mantles in PSA 8 or above, as of this morning, per the PSA pop report. Thus, a shift in tastes (to a PSA 8+ slab) has artificially constrained demand of a card that had 5,000 down to 308. That's a form of scarcity, just not one that appeals to me

So long story short - I'd bet the 1954 Johnston's Cookies, the Sohios, the Bazookas, the Exhibits, the Red Mans (with tabs - scarce), the 1971 Topps Greatest Moments, etc., will continue to appreciate relative to their mainstream Topps counterparts

[71buc]

Thanks for the informative well written response. I tend to agree with ypur thoughts.

[Volod]

I believe Aaron's 1954 Johnston Cookies card was somewhat scarce even within that set, itself. Maybe even as scarce as the Thomson card. I recall that i had a tough time finding one when i was working on the set back in the late '80's. Could be that young Hank signed an exclusive with Topps, since he wasn't in the '54 Bowman set, and the Cookie card may have been pulled during the season.

[MattyC]

Hank Aaron was an amazing player, one of the best ever. He played at a very high level for a very long time. Consistency over time at such a quality level is to be greatly respected.

Sadly these debates always seem to degenerate, and it all comes down to what someone values more-- peak performance versus career total statistics. Such terms really need to be agreed upon or defined specifically upfront, so that folks are speaking to the same discussion target.

For example, when people talk about things like who'd they choose among two past players, are we discussing picking both men at their very beginnings, in a hypothetical reality where they play it all over again with their God-given talent and tools? Or are we talking about the careers that they had, injuries and all? Many things to agree upon upfront, to have a healthy and cogent discussion.

I lean toward peak performance. That's what I like and value. If two baseball players are healthy and performing at the absolute peak of their abilities, and one of the two is named Mickey Mantle, I am taking Mickey Mantle. If I could draft one baseball player for a team today, of all the men who've ever played, based on their natural ceilings, again I am taking Mickey Mantle over all of them.