Future of the Hobby/ Responses needed

[Cardboard Junkie]

In my opinion the hobby is already dead, it just hasn't fallen down yet.

[vintagebaseballcardguy]

I am 40. I can remember 20 or 25 years ago having at least 5 brick and mortar card shops to go to, and the area I live in is not large. Looking back, these shops had a pretty good selection. The Internet (especially eBay) began to change everything in the second half of the 90s. Shops folded up, and even a lot of dealers who had their own websites went to eBay....this seems to have lightened up in the last few years. Guys who had shops sold out of their houses and on eBay. I now have access to one shop which is about 60 miles from my house. It is worth the drive. I don't care how extensive an on line inventory a dealer has, there is NO substitute for looking at and handling vintage cards in person. This includes commons and not just stars. Until computer and iPad screens give one the ability to smell the cardboard and musty surroundings of a real card shop, the experience on line will be cheaper. The shop I go to is owned by a gentleman in his early 70s. He is great and fair-minded and usually has good inventory. We all have lots of good conversation about the hobby. He has quality auctions every Tuesday night, too. He won't be around forever. When he's gone, I am not sure what I will do. I will always collect, but it won't be as good without that shop.

It's painting with a broad brush I know, but most of the "collectors" I know who are close to my age are really investment guys. Some of them know it, some don't. For them, on line works fine. Everything they buy is or will soon be in a plastic holder and sold the second a profit can be made, unless of course they are registry hounds. For me, there is something nostalgic, even romantic about 50s baseball cards. Our country grew up alongside baseball. I never even saw the guys I collect play, but they are larger than life heroes to me. I read about them, I watch documentaries about them, and I collect their cards. I guess that's how I see it. Thanks for asking, and best of luck with your book.

[brewing]

If stamps are still a hobby and hold their value, baseballcards are a long way from a dead hobby.

[Leon]

From my perspective the hobby grew exponentially (by leaps and bounds) with the advent of the internet. Now we can collaborate in seconds what used to take days, weeks and months. So if you have 10000 disparate collectors then that is one thing. However, if you have 5000 collectors that all collect together, then you have a much bigger and stronger hobby. I believe that is the best thing the internet has done for us. Most of us wouldn't have the collections we do today without the internet. I have quite often thought about this subject and I think it makes sense. That being said, I still love shows, especially the National. There is nothing like getting together every year with hundreds of my friends to hoot and holler.

[tulsaboy]

For what little it's worth, I think the hobby is in serious trouble. I think it will always exist in some form or another, because there will always be baseball fans, history fans, or folks who do things because their fathers did them and their fathers before. I would argue that a lot of this trouble can be placed squarely at the feet of both MLB and of the card manufacturers.

I collected primarily in the mid-80's-mid 90's, and was around for the transition from the older, simpler style sets (focus is the base set, there are some inserts and/or accessory sets to collect) to the newer model (who cares about the base set, everything is focused on chasing the inserts, 1/1 cards and parallel sets.) That approach, combined with the strike and the increased focus on cards as an investment instead of cards as simple fun has devestated our hobby, at least as it relates to kids.

Kids shouldn't have to worry about investments, value growth, condition, population reports and the other vagaries of our hobby that they now do. Collecting your favorite team, your favorite player, getting that small handful of packs from the corner store and hoping against all hope that they hold that one last card you need for your set- those should be the focus of a child.

I'm one who was not bothered at all by overproduction. The classic cited examples are 1988-1989 Topps and Donruss. You can still buy cases of those cards for less than they sold at wholesale when they were produced, and that is 24-25 years after the fact! Someone who wants a nice example of their favorite player's rookie card, if that player rookied in those years, can still get it for less than a buck. Collecting those sets is simple fun, and the focus is on the players, the cards, and the experience- not on the return on investment. I agree that it got rediculous, but I remember well searching through huge piles of those packs at Kmart, Target, Skaggs and Safeway, looking for Kevin Seitzer on the top of a blister pack, or Tom Glavine on the top of a Score wax pack, or for Sam Horn smiling from a rack pack. It was just fun. And because of the overproduction, mom bought those packs at a quarter each.

Cards are way too expensive. I understand economics, and that they aren't going to be 25 cents forever. But imagine a return to a product that focuses on a base set, with the occasional inserts. And those inserts aren't limited editions, or relic cards, or parallel sets- they are deckle edges, or stamps, or coins, or a game, or a glossy all-star set. Imagine 50 cent packs of 5 cards each, or 1 dollar packs with 10-12; imagine a rack pack where you could see the stars in all their glory peeking through the cellophane. What in the world is wrong with that?

Topps' monopoly did bring some semblance of order to a situation that had grown out of control. But like most sitautions, monopolies often aren't a good thing. It could be that a card company or product like I outlined above wouldn't find a market, because there wouldn't be the chance of finding the $500 card or the 1/1 relic card; it could be that it would be an absolute flop. But the way Topps has approached things, relic cards have lost their luster; parallel sets aren't anything unique; and the way they are chewing through their old sets and the tobacco-era products, it is only a matter of time before you see a Topps Archives set with everyone in the "historic 1998 design."

I keep boxes of packs from the mid-80's around to open when I need a fix, just because it is fun. I have a box of 1986 Topps sitting about 5 feet away from me as I sit here typing this, just waiting for me to have a bad moment at work that only baseball cards can fix. And isn't that sad? Why don't I have a box of 2013 Topps? Quite simply, because it is expensive and not much fun. My kids have had fun opening packs of mid-80's Topps; I'm not sure that I'll bother with the new stuff.

Kids should be able to go to a ballpark, or to their local store, and spend a reasonable amount of money (maybe the amount it takes to buy a coke in a vending machine) to get a pack of cards. Those cards should be well-designed, with a reasonable hope for the kids of completing a set. They should maybe even have some bubble gum included. If the hobby can't figure out a way to get kids involved, on a mass level, I believe that we will continue to watch a long, slow decline of folks interested in collecting baseball cards. They will get older and greyer (granted with higher disposable incomes) but without the simple joy of a kid opening his first pack of cards. As that happens, I think the card companies will continue to produce cards, but they will increasingly become a specialty thing not available on a regular basis. I remember when almost every grocery, drug, hardware and toy store had boxes of packs available. Made it fun for me (and expensive for mom.) And at the end of the day, isn't that the point?

kevin

[ullmandds]

Those with a vested interest in the hobby are optimistic about it's future...those that are realists and are not heavily vested/invested in the hobby know it's in trouble and the future looks grim.

[ScottFandango]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

Those with a vested interest in the hobby are optimistic about it's future...those that are realists and are not heavily vested/invested in the hobby know it's in trouble and the future looks grim.

then why are there more and more Auction Houses Popping up and why are the established AHs setting record realized prices....and don't say because of shill bidding!

the ease of collecting and looking for cards via the internet has made it easier for people to join the hobby, making up for those that pass....

[glynparson]

ever since i started selling in 1990, began collecting at age 7 in 1979. good stuff just keeps getting more expensive. It (the hobby) will always be here but never as hot as the late 1980's early 1990's but its solid.Or the massive price upticks grading brought. For the record I am 41 and know a lot of people my age and younger that are collectors.

[hammer]

Went to the shriners show this weekend and then went to a coin show same weekend. The coin show had more people in 1 isle then the whole total of the card show.

[Gmrson]

Originally Posted by glynparson

ever since i started selling in 1990, began collecting at age 7 in 1979. good stuff just keeps getting more expensive. It (the hobby) will always be here but never as hot as the late 1980's early 1990's but its solid.Or the massive price upticks grading brought. For the record I am 41 and know a lot of people my age and younger that are collectors.

I actually feel it's "foundation" is more solid than in the early 1990's. What happened then was a lot of non-collectors who got into what was the hype. I worked two LCS from 1983-1990 and saw many jump into the hype more as hoarders than collectors. Much of the throng at the '91 National was not roaming the floors filling holes in their collection but standing in promo lines. As I see it, some of that has morphed into the current "prospectors" and "flippers" who don't really have collections but just casually buy, sell, and hold and often can't really talk sports other than who's hot in cards and might be the next _______ (Strasburg/Trout/Harper/Puig/Abreau). I don't see this as bad for the hobby, just another part of it, and actually good as some will turn into long term collectors. It also seems that many who left when the hobby in the 90's are re-discovering what they enjoyed about then, myself included.

[JoeyF1981]

Being in my 30's I see alot of younger people fixated on the newer cards. The industry is flooded with these so-called 1/1's that people are paying thousands for. Most of these cards are players who arent even hof'ers but because they have a few good games people go crazy. Its hard to get younger people into vintage because they dont have a personal connection with the players. They never watched them play or took the time out to find out more about them. The industry in my opinion is going to continue to grow and the newer generation will still be collecting but primarily modern cards. Me personally I love vintage even if I never saw that specific person play. its the history and knowledge of knowing that that particular player helped pave the way for newer generations. The hobby of collecting will always be there and prices will remain ridiculous.

[Stonepony]

Stamp collecting is dead, they've nearly completely lost their value. Go to a stamp show and there is no one there that wasn't there in 1975. I agree coins are very hot and going strong. Sports cards....I'm not sure if future generations will have the same interest in vintage cards outside the Cobbs, Ruths, Mantles etc...we'll see

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by brewing

If stamps are still a hobby and hold their value, baseballcards are a long way from a dead hobby.

Love your logo, Brent. My dad was in the Army Air Corps during the war, and I always loved that beautiful and classic logo on his uniforms in the closet. Unfortunately, Mom threw them all out when he died. I wished she had called me.

[ullmandds]

I echo most of what Barry said...the majority of kids aren't playing baseball...they're not watching baseball...they're not into collecting things...also...the blue chip cards...the ruths...the cobbs will continue to be popular...to a point. But more importantly is determining what kind of time line we're talking about here. I envision if I live to be in my 70's-80's...the hobby will be much much smaller than it is now...and while the ruths and cobbs will still command decent coin...the commons will be shit!

[wazoo]

For me, I will never drop this hobby. I love vintage baseball cards and I hope future generations to come do as well. I am 16 now, and will be 17 in less than two months. I've been collecting vintage for 4 years now, it was the best decision I ever made. I just feel that people need to spread the news about vintage. Nobody I know collects vintage, let alone baseball cards themselves. It's a great hobby and I hope to see an increase of collectors.

[campyfan39]

How did you get into vintage so young?

Originally Posted by wazoo

For me, I will never drop this hobby. I love vintage baseball cards and I hope future generations to come do as well. I am 16 now, and will be 17 in less than two months. I've been collecting vintage for 4 years now, it was the best decision I ever made. I just feel that people need to spread the news about vintage. Nobody I know collects vintage, let alone baseball cards themselves. It's a great hobby and I hope to see an increase of collectors.

[wazoo]

I did a random Ebay search. I had always bought modern cards from eBay, but never anything vintage. I hadn't even known they existed to be honest. Then one day, I don't even know why, the idea of "t206 Wagner" popped into my mind after I read an article about him, and I just searched t206 on eBay. From there, I bought my first t206, Fred Parent, raw, for $30. I had it graded and it came back as a four, along with a few other raw cards I purchased within my first few months of t206 collecting. I became hooked with the set and it's been like that for years after. I'm at about 100 t206 cards now, and I love the set. The colors, misprints, stories, variations, etc. I've educated myself about the set, and overall, it's been an amazing experience. I just got back from a Shriner's show in Wilmington, MA, and added a few more to my set.

[JoeyF1981]

Originally Posted by campyfan39

How did you get into vintage so young?

When I started collecting cards in the late 80's early 90's I used to always buy the new beckett every month and I remember seeing hank aaron's rc for the first time. I wanted to own one so bad. It was the look of the card and knowing how old it was that made me want it. I would go into this local card shop I always went to and talk to the owner about vintage players and it got me really interested. Also watching the movie "when it was a game" had me hooked. I was fascinated with the history and the way people used to live back then. It was a totally different feel and culture than today. I always wanted to own a mantle or aaron when I got older, but as I got more into the hobby I learned about tons of other players I had never heard of and I was hooked.

[pcoz]

Just to add a few other points relating to how card shops have shrunk and people in the future interested in the hobby shrinking I'd say this.... everything in life changes and evolves all the time. Like the stock exchanges not having floor brokers anymore with things being done electronically, we don't have card shops but have auction houses and the internet to quickly interact and see/buy/sell cards. There are 87 million "Millenials" coming out of college in 2-3 yrs, bigger than the baby boomer population, that will pump money into various areas of the economy. I can't imagine with the increasing prices in the vintage card market, and baseball at least in the area I live still quite popular, people in the future not being interested and driving this market for many years to come. We all have a right to our opinions, but I think its like saying the stock market won't continue to grow in the future which is silly. Just enjoy the ride, evolution, and look forward to the future.

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by Cardboard Junkie

In my opinion the hobby is already dead, it just hasn't fallen down yet.

^^^This

When I started collecting in the mid 80s, I remember there was a card show at one hotel or another (in Houston) just about every weekend. By the end of the decade, there were so many shows every weekend, you would have to pick which ones you wanted to attend because there was no way you would have time to hit them all. Same thing with shops. During that same time, there were dozens and dozens of card shops in Houston. Only two (that I know of) survived. I think those two factors say a lot about the state of the hobby.

[honus94566]

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

^^^This

When I started collecting in the mid 80s, I remember there was a card show at one hotel or another (in Houston) just about every weekend. By the end of the decade, there were so many shows every weekend, you would have to pick which ones you wanted to attend because there was no way you would have time to hit them all. Same thing with shops. During that same time, there were dozens and dozens of card shops in Houston. Only two (that I know of) survived. I think those two factors say a lot about the state of the hobby.

Local card shows are dead. That doesn't mean the hobby is dead.

Now we have Ebay, big auction houses, little mom-and-pop auction houses, and the B/S/T section.

I do think baseball card collecting in general is losing popularity, and has for quite some time.

But I won't believe the hobby is dead, or anywhere near dying, when all the cards I want cost $1K plus because demand is high.

[Bocabirdman]

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

^^^This

When I started collecting in the mid 80s, I remember there was a card show at one hotel or another (in Houston) just about every weekend. By the end of the decade, there were so many shows every weekend, you would have to pick which ones you wanted to attend because there was no way you would have time to hit them all. Same thing with shops. During that same time, there were dozens and dozens of card shops in Houston. Only two (that I know of) survived. I think those two factors say a lot about the state of the hobby.

Every day is a card show. The internet killed the "radio star". I'd wager that there are more transactions per day now than ever. What IS lost is the face-to face interaction but the cards are still traveling.