the SMR

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Posted By: will watson

there has been a lot of negativity towards the SMR and how offbase some of the pricing is. and i agree with a lot of the complaints. although it's only a guide, sometimes it seems like PSA is clueless, or completely out of touch with the vintage market. but has anyone actually read the "Note About Pricing" page in the magazine? it seems to answer a lot of complaints:


PRICE SWINGS-
"one price realized, whether the swing is up or down, will usually not cause a change in SMR. many times, a card at auction may surge to an astronomical price due to two bidders battling for it when the card usually sells for much less. there are many cases where the exact opposite occurs. a card may get overlooked duting a sale and someone walks away with a bargain. at SMR, we try to use our experience and not let one or two sales of a card, strong or weak, dictate the SMR price. we look for patterns. of course, there are situations wehre a super rare card may sell and we alter the price due to rarity. for example, if the famous PSA 8 t206 Wagner sells for a certain price, we will adjust the SMR price to directly reflect that sale because we know that this PSA example is the only one in existence of that quality."

CARDS NOT YET GRADED OR FEW KNOWN-
"in cases where a card has not yet been graded or in cases where a card is extremely scarce and rarely comes up for sale, we do our best to give conservative estimates for those cards. we try to compare that card to other comparable rarities in order to come up with a price but our stance at SMR is that a card is worth what someone is willing to pay for it."

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Posted By: Rick

Will,

For better or for worse, most members here have already made their mind regarding PSA, SMR, PSA/DNA etc...

The bashing has simply become a standard ritual, just like In the CU boards its a given that SGC cards are off-centered and that GAI is too dealer friendly.

Its just the way it is.

Wether its here or on the PSA boards the best posts are always the ones that mention no grading company or the investment potential of our hobby, but rather those that focus on the card themselves.

(calleocho)

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Posted By: Anson

In fairness, no book has kept up with the vintage card market very well. Most of the non-T206 Pre-WWI sets are scarce enough that it's hard to track a lot of activity. However, most of the published "guesses" are out-to-lunch when it comes to accuracy.

A card is worth what someone is willing to pay for it. That's all.

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Posted By: JimB

I applaud SMR's attempt to cover more vintage issues, particularly caramels of late. However, they are WAY undervaluing all of the caramel issues right now. I sold one E95 to a dealer for double SMR a couple of months ago.
JimB

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Posted By: JimCrandell

The SMR is virtually useless. There was a day when Joe Orlando's job was to update the SMR and he would proactively call dealers and major collectors.
Now it is noone's job and Joe simply tells people to call in or e-mail him any changes.
There is no evidence that he pays any attention to the major auctions and no evidence that he monitors ebay transactions.
I collect over 100 graded sets across all sports over almost a 100-year span and there are none where the SMR can even be used as a guide anymore---they are that far out of touch.
I know of no knowledgeable graded card collectors who use the SMR anymore as a benchmark to price transactions.
They need to hire someone full time to do the job if they want to be serious about it--now its a joke.

Dav

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Posted By: Wesley

Anson, I agree with you that a card is worth what someone is willing to pay for it. Still, on some of the cards that I collect, I use the SMR as a general guide. Prices tend to be conservative in the SMR and it may not be as accurate as tracking ebay for six months, but I do not agree that it is useless.

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Posted By: BcD

you take the SMR value of pre-war~
multiply it by 333% and wella! You have your value-
with some it's only 2x but I'm sure you can figure out which~

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Posted By: Anson

%333 is the percentage I hope for when I'm selling, 2X for when I'm buying

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Posted By: Damian

...you do as the above posts suggest. Just look at completed ebay auctions for similar or close items and get a percentage above SMR for that card. Doing this is pretty accurate for current market value. Pretty much you can take the days in the 80's when Beckett was the "bible" and forget it. Guides now are only truly guides and even then are blind at times. Undervalue for vintage and way overvalue for modern (glossy, pretty sh!t).

Damian

Damian

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Posted By: JimB

Brian, You are right. At least it does give you an idea of what cards in a set are worth relative to one another. I do wish they would put more effort into keeping it up to date on vintage issues.
JimB

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Posted By: BcD

EXAMPLE: 1914 E-145-1 Matty~
we both know it is worth 2-2.5 smr. especially in high grade. But not enough have sold at these levels to move the SMR up but a portion of the recent realized prices and that DOES make sense. One big sale does not set the standard value for the same card two moths later.SMR movement seems contingent on a series of sales at a particular level.Most of the se cards do not exist in quanities to denote and log a consistant price realized. Hope that makes sense..

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Posted By: Anson

Brian, that does make sense. However, if there aren't enough examples exchanging hands to assess a valid number, why publish anything at all? Guide or no guide, it doesn't really help anyone.

If there aren't enough of these cards exchanging hands, where did the numbers come from? Did they pull them out of their $#@?

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Posted By: Gilbert Porter

I happened to be speaking with a variety of people during the recent Sportsfest on this very topic (exploring an idea of my own for a better pricing/valuation model for sportscards). One theory that was espoused to me was that the SMR purposely understates prices - particularly for the vintage material - so that PSA can demonstrate that their graded cards sell at "better than market" prices. I will leave for you guys to determine whether you think there is any validity to this theory - I am decidedly undecided, and merely concur with you all that there is no decent pricing/valuation model currently available. As to my efforts in this area - if I succeed in what I am doing you will hear more about it at the end of the year.

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Posted By: Glenn

"One theory that was espoused to me was that the SMR purposely understates prices - particularly for the vintage material - so that PSA can demonstrate that their graded cards sell at "better than market" prices."

But the SMR is supposedly a price guide for PSA graded cards and for PSA-graded cards only, isn't it? So PSA looks bad if their graded cards sell at reliably lower or reliably higher prices than listed in the SMR.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

You guys read too much into it. The answer is they put no effort into it and prices remain the same for years and end up bearing no resemblance to actual prices.

Dav

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Posted By: will watson

i agree with Jim. i doubt PSA has enough time, or cares enough, to try to manipulate the market. they don't need to "prove" their cards sell for more than their competitors- ebay and auction houses show that.

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Posted By: Steve

Will, you agree with Jim?

heh


I too have to go along with Jim here. And even when orlando does ask for some input rarely does it go from your email (that he requests) to the SMR.

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Posted By: jay wolt

The SMR guide is not totally worthless as some suggest. Granted many vintage sets and regionals can be updated. But there is a bunch of '50's, '60's & '70's that always seem to sell in line of SMR via eBay.
Jim, I've sold you a few thousand cards and we always went by the SMR guide, if my pricing was too low, feel free to send me an additional check ...jay

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Steve,

This isn't LTS--personal attacks are not allowed here.

Dav

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Posted By: Steve

Was a joke Jim



They may not be allowed here, but i have seen my share here.

they are not allowed anywhere for that matter.

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Posted By: BCD

The trimmed card bs~

to answer your question below.The SMR tabulators must make an ASSUMPTION that certain cards even exist from stes of which nonoe are registered. Example-Tango Brand Egg card-are there several other common players known in e-92-106 sets??? Maybe! So they list values of cards assumed exist. Look at the E-94s!



Brian, that does make sense. However, if there aren't enough examples exchanging hands to assess a valid number, why publish anything at all? Guide or no guide, it doesn't really help anyone.

If there aren't enough of these cards exchanging hands, where did the numbers come from? Did they pull them out of their $#@?

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Steve,

Really!!!! There are a few people you could tell that to at LTS plus a couple of moderators.

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Posted By: warshawlaw

On this very subject. The SMR has always been a promotional device rather than an honest price guide. In its early days PSA went so far as to list non-existent cards in their best investments section and to boost their prices with the little "+" sign despite never baving graded the damned things! It was a total fraud. They still supply prices via the SWAG (Standard Wild Ass Guess) method because so many grade-card combos simply do not exist. Want to try an interesting experiment? Pick a post-war year and track sales of HOFers from a Topps or Bowman set via ebay for a while then compare the prices realized to the SMR prices. When I did it the average prices were ALL below SMR.

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Posted By: Richard Masson

When PSA first began publishing price lists, I thought it was a spoof on Alan Hagar's book. Then dealers used them to reprice their inventory, then collectors (newbies?) decided to pay these prices anyway (It's a low pop 6!-worth triple a 5). Next thing you know, people are angry because the prices are too low. Go figure.

By the way, I will pay 5x book for the PSA 8 N172 Anson in uniform.

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Posted By: Glenn

'52 Topps Mantles go for well above SMR. But I can't think of too many other exceptions.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Glenn,

Seriously!??

Lets start with almost every pre-war card in 8 or better. In post war, most psa 8 cards in the 1948-53 Bowman sets go for over book and any card that is relatively low pop goes for multiples. In 52 Topps which you cite, on;y the higher pop commons in the second series would bbe at or below smr. 1953 Topps forget it. For 55 Topps,lower pop commons routinely go for over $1,000. 1957 Topps third series are usually well over $200. I could go on a long time.

Dav

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Posted By: Glenn

Well I didn't say YOU couldn't think of too many other exceptions. And in any case the rule (as stated in the previous warshawlaw post) was only about post-war Hall of Famers. But I must acknowledge they seem more plentiful than I thought.

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Posted By: Craig Lipman

Richard ,
The SMR lists the Anson in Uni at 80k. Your offer of $400,000 would make it the 2nd highest valued card. It sure would be interesting to see it at auction again.

By the way I purchased a 19th century hofer for $2000 under the SMR and a 33 Delong hofer for under SMR in the past two months. These cards were bought on ebay so I think the price realized is market value as any dealer could have easily stepped in and bid. My point is not every prewar card is undervalued by the smr. I agree caramel cards are way undervalued but the higher grades ( 7s and 8s) are so rarely traded publicly it would be hard for an observer to fairly value them. The same is true of T204s.

Why get all worked up about the smr anyways?; Card prices are so volatile its not like tracking the stock market. Just because two registry geeks duke it out doesn't mean that your 1953 Bowman common is always going to bring 5k or whatever else you may think it's worth.