Old Judge Card Prices

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Posted By: Jay Miller 

Since Leon so eloquently voiced his pet peeve in a prior thread I thought I would vent one of mine. There seems to be a trend starting in the Old Judge market where slabbed cards are selling for multiples of comparable cards that remain untombed. Can any of you explain this situation to me? I have paid some stupid prices (at the time) in the past for cards I wanted but even I have drawn the line about paying over $600 for an EX card of a player who is not rare. The story used to justify these type of prices usually is that a particular poses is rare. This is almost always just baloney. There is no dealer in the country, except for Lew, who has any real idea which poses are scarce and no one knows that information for more than a small subset of players. Are people afraid of doctored cards and are willing to pay a premium for GAI, SGC or PSA to tell them that the card is good? My experience is that the grading services have questionable expertise in this area at best. Besides, the grading criteria they use deemphasizes qualities that are important to most Old Judge collectors. I'm sure you all have seen pink cards with bad photos that have received high grades because they have sharp corners and clean backs. I would appreciate knowing what you all think.
By the way, if anyone has questions about specific Old Judge cards email me at curl777@aol.com and I will try to help.

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Posted By: john(z28jd)

Graded old judge cards,even in low grades have been going for twice the amount they should be,and youre also right about the grading companies probably not knowing enough about these cards to make them worth that much more.
I also noticed alot of the real high grade OJ's seem to have bad angle cuts,and dont look right in the holders,whether they are trimmed or not i dont know but it is a strange occurance.
Ive been guilty of overpaying for a grade OJ but some are so hard to find,its just too hard to pass up or wait for another and that might have something to do with it

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Posted By: Jay Miller

John---If you or anyone else has specific cards you are looking for email me with your want list and I will try to help. If you have emailed me in the past it wouldn't hurt to do it again. My memory, unfortunately, is as short as other anatomical parts.

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Posted By: Julie Vognar

in his early November auction!

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Posted By: jeff s

I think it is particularly true of lower-grade cards that the slab makes all the difference. I remember being stunned at some of the prices on the GAI-graded OJs at the nat'l that SCP and Shoebox were selling, and more startled hearing how fast (at SCP, anyway) they were selling.

I suppose that, because the cards are rare, and because each pose is difficult to find, there are a decent number of people out there who will buy a card they need regardless of grade.

It's also worth noting that every pose in the set is rare. Some, of course, are rarer than others, and there are a few that seem to pop up a lot, but if you are a player collector like John or a team collector or -for whatever reason- you are looking for specific poses, they are hard to find! It's hard enough to find a Buck Ewing card, but to find a particular Ewing pose could take months or years -- not because it is uncommonly rare for an old judge card, but because of the limited population.

I say this in reference to Jay's (appropriate) frustration with dealers who think that every pose they haven't seen before (which, in most cases, means every pose they ever sell) is rare. They may be rare compared to T206s, but that doesn't mean that the Alcott w/bat at 90 degrees variation is going to be worth more than any other alcott variation.

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Posted By: Albie O'Hanian

As a buyer who does most of my buying on ebay, most of my purchases are in graded cards. There are very few sellers I trust enough to buy an ungraded card from on ebay. Plus, although I would love to have more Old Judge cards my experience in this area is limited. I feel more comfortable buying graded cards or from the few dealers I feel comfortable with. Consequently I would be willing to pay more money for a graded card. Many new collectors probably feel they are guaranteed a legitamate card with the grading companies and while veteran collectors know that this scenario is not the case it probably leads to more bidding on a given card.

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Posted By: B Hodes

I think Albie is correct about the (sometimes false) sense of security that the slabs bring to many buyers. I also think that this effect may be more pronounced with Old Judges because they are so mysterious to most collectors.

One thing that has always mystified me about Old Judge prices is their inexplicable range. I am not talking about the range between a HOFer and a common but rather among the commons. While I am not alone in only chasing Old Judge's of the era's better players who are not in the Hall of Fame, I wonder who drives up the prices of other commons ( I don't mean Brown's Champions or Spotted Ties). Surely, besides Jay of course, there can't be too many people out there chasing some sort of Old Judge set -- either by pose or by player.

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Posted By: Jay Miller

Brian--I know of at least ten people working on a set of at least one of each player so there is demand for every player in the set. With this in mind the price variations that I think you are talking about based on rarity make sense. A seperate question is how do you price unique cards. There is one non-California League card that is believed to be unique(Gibson-Athletics)and many of the California League cards are thought to be unique. There are probably another twenty players who are thought to have only a handful of cards. These cards should sell for many many multiples of common prices; Gibson should be a six figure card. However, this is all predicated on people collecting the set. The more people who collect a set the more the premium for rarity. A unique T206 card would be worth more than a unique Old Judge card since more people collect the set. Using the same line of thinking a unique Old Judge card should sell for more than a unique Kalamazoo Bats card.I think this is borne out in the marketplace. Pose scarcity is another question, however. Not that rare poses shouldn't sell for more than common ones(assuming enough people care)but I maintain that the people selling these cards claiming they have rare poses don't have a clue. It is only rare because that is the one they need to hype. That is where I have my gripe.

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Posted By: Tom

this before Jay.....but I think that it seems like so many people are getting the OJ's slabbed (including myself) that it's kind of a chicken and egg thing. In some cases, the slabbing has caused the prices to seem to go up, which causes more slabbing which seems to keep the prices going up. I think Wayne Varner and Shoebox has hit the pinnacle right now though with, like you said, GAI4 and GAI5 OJ's selling for $500 and $600. That's just ridiculous. Unfortunately, especially for you, you wind up paying that if it's someone that you really need (since you're doing the set by pose). I remember buying from Terry Knouse thinking that his prices were really high a couple years ago. Wish I could go back to that time when you could get an EX OJ 'common' for $150 to $200. Just doesn't happen anymore. EX on ebay will sell for upwards of $300 to $400 anymore. A NRMT didn't meet reserve a couple days ago North of $600 or so. Also saw an 8 on there a few days ago at $1400 plus. So.......it is a strong market.

Now...about those difficult Chicago Maroons........

Hopefully you got the overnight letter..........

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Posted By: Kevin Cummings

In a very basic sense, Old Judge cards are like any other commodity - the price will be determined by what the market will bear. If sellers slab Old Judge cards and automatically charge higher prices for them just because they are slabbed (don't they do that with every slabbed card?) and buyers continue to buy them, the prices will continue to go up. If we stopped buying them, the prices would stabilize or come down.

The problem with Old Judge cards that is not a problem with 2002 Toyota Corollas, for instance, is that most of us really don't know how rare the cards are in general and specifically at the player level. I think many collectors can gain some knowledge about which cards are more commonly seen than others (I'm certain that California Brown was not, for example, a short print) and make educated guesses. Some advanced collectors might have some more specific data and, therefore, a deeper understanding, but none of us really know exactly how many Gus Weyhings there are.

If we all knew with a high degree of certainty the exact world population of any Old Judge player (forgetting variations for this argument) prices could be accurately set and we might be more willing to wait out a purchase of a player we needed if we knew another was likely to come along.

Since that will never happen, I believe the intrinsic rarity of any 19th century item combined with the uncertainty of another item for which we are specifically searching ever showing up, leads us to buy at prices we might not otherwise pay - slab or not.

Now if someone was to put together an Old Judge population report.......

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Posted By: Jay Miller

Kevin--That is exactly why vintage collectibles are so difficult to price--they are not commodities. Commodities imply a certain uniformity. That is why commodities can trade on exchanges---there is fungibility. Different Old Judge cards have both different rarity and different condition. How much is a spotted tie of Brady worth relative to a pose of California Brown? How do you set that differential? You can say the market will do it but there are not enough transactions to determine a "market". At the end of the day it just seems like some old horse tradin.

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Posted By: Kevin Cummings

.....is that the meaning of the message gets lost!

In short, I believe that the slab, in and of itself, should not add any value to an Old Judge card.
The value of the card should be determined on its own merits.

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Posted By: Jay Miller

AMEN! On a different but related topic I have recently joined the British Cartophilic Society. I have volunteered to help them update the Old Judge listing and await word as to whether they have an interest in this offer. Should they accept the offer I will actively solicit help from those on the board who collect those little treasures.

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Posted By: John(z28jd)

I would be more than happy to help,altho i dont have a large amount of old judges,i would hope everyone who does would be willing to share the info...Tho its almost impossible,i would still love to see a population report by player

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Posted By: Jay Miller

I went to the White Plains, NY card show today and although I saw Old Judge cards on six tables none were slabbed. That was the only good news. The selection was horrible, it cost $8 to get in and one dealer in the back was selling knock-off DVDs (My Big Fat Greek Wedding-$10) while another was selling candy bars.

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Posted By: jeff s

the White Plains show has become just about worthless.

When I first moved to New York about four years ago it was okay, but I was told it had declined...two years later I stopped going altogether.

I think in all of my trips there, I got some deals on 50s cards, and a T207 Wheat. Woo hoo...

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Posted By: jay behrens

that is sad to hear. That used to be a good show

Jay