Collectors Universe releases fourth quarter and fiscal year end earnings today

[CuriousGeorge]

4:30 pm EST today

Dial 800-347-6311 a few minutes before 4:30 pm EST today or view a webcast on their site www.collectorsuniverse.com under Investor Relations: Earnings Conference Calls or for a replay dial 888-203-1112 with access code 9390521# Should be very interesting.

[Peter_Spaeth]

I haven't heard people clamoring to short CLCT recently. I am guessing their earnings will be in line, but who knows. Or if it underperforms it will be due to coins.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

I'd like to know how their guarantee fund stands.

[perezfan]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

I'd like to know how their guarantee fund stands.

It's probably fine, considering it is meaningless, they direct all refunds to the seller, and have no intent on paying out a penny.

Still not a single post here (or on BO) from one single person who was made right by PSA's "guarantee". It's just PWCC and a few various Dealers who are providing refunds.

If anyone reading this thread was provided a refund directly from PSA, please post it here, along with pertinent details.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by perezfan

It's probably fine, considering it is meaningless, they direct all refunds to the seller, and have no intent on paying out a penny.

Still not a single post here (or on BO) from one single person who was made right by PSA's "guarantee". It's just PWCC and a few various Dealers who are providing refunds.

If anyone reading this thread was provided a refund directly from PSA, please post it here, along with pertinent details.

I believe there have been a post or two on BO about PSA making good. Also Jesse, on this Board.

[jhs5120]

Originally Posted by perezfan

It's probably fine, considering it is meaningless, they direct all refunds to the seller, and have no intent on paying out a penny.

Still not a single post here (or on BO) from one single person who was made right by PSA's "guarantee". It's just PWCC and a few various Dealers who are providing refunds.

If anyone reading this thread was provided a refund directly from PSA, please post it here, along with pertinent details.

http://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=272630

There were a few posts about people receiving refunds.

Edit, Peter beat me to it

[perezfan]

Originally Posted by jhs5120

http://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=272630

There were a few posts about people receiving refunds.

Edit, Peter beat me to it

Aha.... I missed that one. Good to see they made Jesse whole.

Thanks for clarifying Peter and Jason... I stand corrected!

[jhs5120]

I'd imagine revenue is up significantly, the card business continues to grow and the coin business continues to slow.

I'm sure there will be an increase in warranty expense for the quarter. They had $728k reserved at the end of March. The only real surprise IMHO would be if the auditors decide they need to change up their warranty reserve methodology. Right now they seem to be reserving for around .02% of the total declared value of collectibles (adding $402k of warranty reserve on ~$2B of collectibles processed). For two consecutive years payments on the warranty have outpaced additions to the reserve (albeit not by much).

Right now, I doubt the warranty cost for the quarter is material. If it were, it would be interesting to see how the auditors react. Suggesting that PSA updates their methodology going forward (say .05% of declared value) would result in no meaningful impact on PSA financials, but suggesting that PSA updates their methodology and retroactively applies the change would potentially result in a significant hit. I doubt that would happen though - the declared value of trading cards is less than 10% of the declared value of coins.

Honestly, I think PSA will be fine.

[Peter_Spaeth]

To me there are two things that could significantly hurt PSA: a criminal prosecution or unambiguous revelations of corruption at a high level, possibly in a civil suit. I don't, though, think either of these is at all a likely scenario. Otherwise, with no real competition and a large part of the market entrenched in slabs and registry sets, I think they skate on.

[Scott L.]

Curious if they will be asked about the scandal by any of the analysts on the call that cover them. I imagine coverage is light.

[WhenItWasAHobby]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

To me there are two things that could significantly hurt PSA: a criminal prosecution or unambiguous revelations of corruption at a high level, possibly in a civil suit. I don't, though, think either of these is at all a likely scenario. Otherwise, with no real competition and a large part of the market entrenched in slabs and registry sets, I think they skate on.

You are very likely correct in your analysis. Unless an insider steps forth, NDA be damned, and blows the whistle on deliberate corruption, then I could see serious problems for CLCT. But that's not likely for a variety of reasons. A possible third scenario would be widespread media attention on a major scale that discredits the legitimacy of their service and in turn causes panic and/or alienation among collectors and auction sites. That too is unlikely, but still possible.

[drcy]

In the realms of possible possibility, eBay banning PWCC would be a big and hobby rattling deal. If there is a criminal investigation into fraud, that's a possibility and would be a huge deal and have an immediate huge effect.

In the scheme of things, that's what I'd be pressing for to happen.

[chalupacollects]

Originally Posted by Scott L.

Curious if they will be asked about the scandal by any of the analysts on the call that cover them. I imagine coverage is light.

There were several questions asked about PWCC, trimming etc... one fella was cut off... he hit a nerve... PSA feels that the "scandals" will not affect them... and apparently lowered the guarantee reserve for 2019/2020...

No plans on eliminating humans from the grading process...

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by chalupacollects

There were several questions asked about PWCC, trimming etc... one fella was cut off... he hit a nerve... PSA feels that the "scandals" will not affect them... and apparently lowered the guarantee reserve for 2019/2020...

No plans on eliminating humans from the grading process...

They LOWERED the reserve? LOL that is beautiful.

[CuriousGeorge]

I strongly suggest anyone who has any concerns about the current investigation listen to the replay of this call. Orlando claims any issues regarding the current investigation are no different than any they have faced at any point in the past. When questions were asked about the current scandal they were deflected and in at least one case the questioner was shut down. Record revenues, record profits, record backlog of cards submitted in the pipeline to be graded, no need for any warranty increases. To me, their complete nonchalance and dismissiveness of any concerns they may have about the scandal are so unrealistic in light of the information that has been released thus far that it’s almost hard to believe. Barely a flesh wound right Joe? I guess in time we shall see.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Poof!! Even on an analyst call. Just swat it away like it was a post on CU. LOL I love it.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by CuriousGeorge

I strongly suggest anyone who has any concerns about the current investigation listen to the replay of this call. Orlando claims any issues regarding the current investigation are no different than any they have faced at any point in the past. When questions were asked about the current scandal they were deflected and in at least one case the questioner was shut down. Record revenues, record profits, record backlog of cards submitted in the pipeline to be graded, no need for any warranty increases. To me, their complete nonchalance and dismissiveness of any concerns they may have about the scandal are so unrealistic in light of the information that has been released thus far that it’s almost hard to believe. Barely a flesh wound right Joe? I guess in time we shall see.

Is the problem still limited to "hundreds" of cards?

[chalupacollects]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Poof!! Even on an analyst call. Just swat it away like it was a post on CU. LOL I love it.

Seriously spoke like it was a minor, minor inconvenience like a spot on your tie..

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by chalupacollects

Seriously spoke like it was a minor, minor inconvenience like a spot on your tie..

If this comes down to litigation, or a criminal prosecution, Joe won't be able to control the narrative so easily as he is used to doing.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

To me there are two things that could significantly hurt PSA: a criminal prosecution or unambiguous revelations of corruption at a high level, possibly in a civil suit. I don't, though, think either of these is at all a likely scenario. Otherwise, with no real competition and a large part of the market entrenched in slabs and registry sets, I think they skate on.

Agree....

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

If this comes down to litigation, or a criminal prosecution, Joe won't be able to control the narrative so easily as he is used to doing.

Problem is it won’t....Zero Criminal Prosecution will happen to PSA....Civil Suits they could care less

No one can Claim ignorance all the information is here. It’s up to the buyer....

I harken back to a Fleetwoodmac Song....Go Your Own Way

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Problem is it won’t....Zero Criminal Prosecution will happen to PSA....Civil Suits they could care less

No one can Claim ignorance all the information is here. It’s up to the buyer....

I harken back to a Fleetwoodmac Song....Go Your Own Way

It would depend on the civil suit. If one or more heavy hitting registry guys actually care about their whacked cards and don't get satisfaction under the guarantee, they could cause some trouble for PSA. Especially if a judge were to refuse to grant a broad protective order with respect to disclosing discovery materials.

[CuriousGeorge]

Let’s just speculate for a second....

During the FBI investigation certain submitters are found to be regularly altering cards and the lists of cards submitted for grading by these card doctors are released.

The boys on BO carefully spend hours going through the list and find many with irrefutable proof of how they looked “before.” This proof is presented to PSA. For now let’s not say by whom.

PSA is then forced to either publicly deny they are the same cards or to acknowledge they are. Simultaneously wouldn’t they be forced to remove these cards from their registry sets whether they wanted to or not? If a card was removed from a registry set wouldn’t the card owner then have no use for the card and insist on having his money returned by PSA’s warranty?

I’m just sketching out a very simple narrative but can you see how easy this can be?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by CuriousGeorge

Let’s just speculate for a second....

During the FBI investigation certain submitters are found to be regularly altering cards and the lists of cards submitted for grading by these card doctors are released.

The boys on BO carefully spend hours going through the list and find many with irrefutable proof of how they looked “before.” This proof is presented to PSA. For now let’s not say by whom.

PSA is then forced to either publicly deny they are the same cards or to acknowledge they are. Simultaneously wouldn’t they be forced to remove these cards from their registry sets whether they wanted to or not? If a card was removed from a registry set wouldn’t the card owner then have no use for the card and insist on having his money returned by PSA’s warranty?

I’m just sketching out a very simple narrative but can you see how easy this can be?

The list of cards affected in the WiWAG scandal was never released by the government as I recall. I am not sure any comparable list would be released to the public here.

[CuriousGeorge]

Don’t be so sure.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by CuriousGeorge

Don’t be so sure.

I said I was not sure. I would welcome such lists. Imagine what they would do to some Registry sets like 1948 Leafs.

[CuriousGeorge]

Exactly. So you see how easy this all can be. Everyone should take a deep breath and let the process play out. If presented with irrefutable proof of five and six figure cards definitively altered and resting in PSA slabs in registry sets, I wonder how Joe is going to spin that one?

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by CuriousGeorge

Exactly. So you see how easy this all can be. Everyone should take a deep breath and let the process play out. If presented with irrefutable proof of five and six figure cards definitively altered and resting in PSA slabs in registry sets, I wonder how Joe is going to spin that one?

They will never admit any cards are bad in their holders....

I’m still waiting for that Mastro Wagner...if that isn’t irrefutable proof that a six figure plus card is definitely altered In their holder what is??

Nothing to see here move along

[CuriousGeorge]

Johnny Boy, I know you seem to feel you have all the answers and I know how desperately you want that $10M Wagner to become worthless, but unless the owner of the card has a problem with it nothing will happen. And it certainly appears as if he has no problem.

Originally Posted by Johnny630

They will never admit any cards are bad in their holders....

I’m still waiting for that Mastro Wagner...if that isn’t irrefutable proof that a six figure plus card is definitely altered In their holder what is??

Nothing to see here move along

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by CuriousGeorge

Johnny Boy, I know you seem to feel you have all the answers and I know how desperately you want that $10M Wagner to become worthless, but unless the owner of the card has a problem with it nothing will happen. And it certainly appears as if he has no problem.

Much of the value of the Wagner, IMO, now lies in its notoriety. The usual rules that would apply to discounting a card to an AUTH have no application in this unique case.

[CuriousGeorge]

Of course you are correct.

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Much of the value of the Wagner, IMO, now lies in its notoriety. The usual rules that would apply to discounting a card to an AUTH have no application in this unique case.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by CuriousGeorge

Johnny Boy, I know you seem to feel you have all the answers and I know how desperately you want that $10M Wagner to become worthless, but unless the owner of the card has a problem with it nothing will happen. And it certainly appears as if he has no problem.

I was being Facetious....of course he wouldn’t come forward he doesn’t want his card to be worthless. Why battle PSA when he knows he could get millions if he was to sell the card as is in auction.

PSA always slivers away just as the card doctors.....nothing is going to change.

[CuriousGeorge]

How do you know nothing is going to change Johnny?

Originally Posted by Johnny630

I was being Facetious....of course he wouldn’t come forward he doesn’t want his card to be worthless. Why battle PSA when he knows he could get millions if he was to sell the card as is in auction.

PSA always slivers away just as the card doctors.....nothing is going to change.

[Republicaninmass]

SHATTERED earnings

[benjulmag]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Much of the value of the Wagner, IMO, now lies in its notoriety. The usual rules that would apply to discounting a card to an AUTH have no application in this unique case.

If the Wagner "8" is re holdered as an "A", which is what it is, it would sell for a small fraction of an "8" value, precisely as was the case with the Plank "A" cut from the same sheet. No offense intended, but IMHO notoriety in that instance would mean *@#%.

[swarmee]

Originally Posted by CuriousGeorge

PSA is then forced to either publicly deny they are the same cards or to acknowledge they are. Simultaneously wouldn’t they be forced to remove these cards from their registry sets whether they wanted to or not? If a card was removed from a registry set wouldn’t the card owner then have no use for the card and insist on having his money returned by PSA’s warranty?

That's what I've been pushing for with Steve Sloan that likely got me blocked from sending him or PSA emails. I contacted one of the guys collecting 1948 Leaf that had 13 exposed cards through the PSA website and informed him of the fraud he was experiencing.

If the crowd source community wanted to, they could use the PSA Auction Prices Realized site to report to PSA all of the before and after picture posts to try and guilt PSA into removing both the BEFORE and AFTER cert numbers from their registry. Because some of those registry collectors are so slimy they steal Cert numbers from the internet of cards they don't own to improve their set GPA for the awards. PSA should be doing it anyways by registering those certs in their own "Inventory" so that if someone is still claiming the card, their site prompts them to send scans of their cards to confirm ownership. If someone still owns the "BEFORE" image, they can prove that the card considered AFTER is a different card.

[swarmee]

Originally Posted by benjulmag

If the Wagner "8" is re holder as an "A", which is what it is, it would sell for a small fraction of an "8" value, precisely as was the case with the Plank "A" cut from the same sheet. No offense intended, but IMHO notoriety in that instance would mean *@#%.

As he said in the article about Gary Moser in the NY Times, Ken Kedrick was offered $10M+ for the card even after the book outlining its trimming was published. It seems like the perfect time for PSA to call his bluff and have it reholdered as AUTH ALTERED.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by swarmee

As he said in the article about Gary Moser in the NY Times, Ken Kedrick was offered $10M+ for the card even after the book outlining its trimming was published. It seems like the perfect time for PSA to call his bluff and have it reholdered as AUTH ALTERED.

That will happen on the 13th of Never, the day after PSA admits any responsibility for the colossal damage their ineptitude or worse has done.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

If this comes down to litigation, or a criminal prosecution, Joe won't be able to control the narrative so easily as he is used to doing.

Oh, how I hope this will happen. Perhaps Jeff’s representation of PWCC could help.. if they know anything, disclosure by PWCC against PSA to mitigate could be impactful.

[MULLINS5]

Originally Posted by swarmee

As he said in the article about Gary Moser in the NY Times, Ken Kedrick was offered $10M+ for the card even after the book outlining its trimming was published. It seems like the perfect time for PSA to call his bluff and have it reholdered as AUTH ALTERED.

I doubt he was really offered that much.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Much of the value of the Wagner, IMO, now lies in its notoriety. The usual rules that would apply to discounting a card to an AUTH have no application in this unique case.

Agreed. That Wagner is worth a fortune, not because of the grade, but because it’s “that” Wagner. It’s poetic that PSA’s first graded card was altered, but that’s not the hook we should hang our hats on here. And, if I had $10mm I needed to invest, I think the Gretzky Wagner would be a phenomenal investment; but I admit I would not want it in any holder other than what it’s in (not for the grade but for the controversy, which is part of the allure).

[Peter_Spaeth]

Lolol.

[oldjudge]

That quote would probably be more impactful if the unidentified analyst was not using an unidentified language.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

That quote would probably be more impactful if the unidentified analyst was not using an unidentified language.

More likely a transcription error. Do you think nobody really told Joe about the allegations against Souza and Maxwell?

[Mark17]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

More likely a transcription error. Do you think nobody really told Joe about the allegations against Souza and Maxwell?

As a legal matter, is Orlando required to be 100% truthful on a call like this? In other words, if this thing ends up in some sort of litigation, and if there is testimony involving who knew what, and when... IF Joe was being less than truthful when stating he had no knowledge of the allegations mentioned, could he have possibly put himself in legal jeopardy?

I know that managers of simple LLCs are required to reveal any inside information they are aware of, that could negatively impact the value of the LLC.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Mark17

As a legal matter, is Orlando required to be 100% truthful on a call like this? In other words, if this thing ends up in some sort of litigation, and if there is testimony involving who knew what, and when... IF Joe was being less than truthful when stating he had no knowledge of the allegations mentioned, could he have possibly put himself in legal jeopardy?

I know that managers of simple LLCs are required to reveal any inside information they are aware of, that could negatively impact the value of the LLC.

Securities fraud suits very frequently feature statements by executives/answers to questions on analyst calls among the alleged false and misleading statements. That said, the statement/answer would have to be material, and I doubt that this particular answer could be deemed material.

Nonetheless, it's hard for me to believe PSA is not monitoring developments and that nobody told Joe that two former graders have been accused of trimming cards. Or maybe they are so arrogant they don't even monitor?

[Republicaninmass]

All these boobs shorting CLCT stock just got their pockets ripped out

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

All these boobs shorting CLCT stock just got their pockets ripped out

Now is the time to sell it...sell it quickly

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

All these boobs shorting CLCT stock just got their pockets ripped out

Indeed. The train keeps on a rollin'.

[wondo]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Now is the time to sell it...sell it quickly

Why?