Rookie of the Year Projections

[Runscott]

Thoughts?

Looking at the Mariners' James Paxton, I was checking past pitchers who won the award, and found Steve Howe in 1980: 7-9 record with 2.66 ERA and 84.2 innings pitched.

Given Howe's record, Paxton is 5-1 with 1.91 ERA and 47 innings pitched. He should get 4-5 more starts.

I guess Abreu is a lock though.

[packs]

My picks:

AL:

Pretty sure Jose Abreu takes it. But if the voters prefer to choose the real "rookie" I would think it would be a toss up between Dellin Betances and Matt Shoemaker.


NL:

Billy Hamilton or Jacob deGrom.

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by packs

My picks:

AL:

Pretty sure Jose Abreu takes it. But if the voters prefer to choose the real "rookie" I would think it would be a toss up between Dellin Betances and Matt Shoemaker.


NL:

Billy Hamilton or Jacob deGrom.

By the way, your man Adam Dunn slaughtered a Felix Hernandez pitch today, so he's continuing to be a good pick-up for the A's. They showed an interview after the game, of him describing batting against Felix. Very likable person - hopefully he does what it takes to make it to the HOF.

[clydepepper]

Originally Posted by packs

My picks:

AL:

Pretty sure Jose Abreu takes it. But if the voters prefer to choose the real "rookie" I would think it would be a toss up between Dellin Betances and Matt Shoemaker.


NL:

Billy Hamilton or Jacob deGrom.

Let's give Paxton the Rookie of the Year Award and Abreu the newly created

'Hideo Nomo' Import Award. (Chipper would be pleased)

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by clydepepper

Let's give Paxton the Rookie of the Year Award and Abreu the newly created

'Hideo Nomo' Import Award. (Chipper would be pleased)

Paxton has been amazing so far. If he achieves close to a best case scenario of five starts with 6-7 innings each, maintains his current ERA and gets 4 or 5 wins, he'll have had an incredible year. Given that the other Mariner arms are tiring, Paxton could be a major star in the post-season, with only around 80-90 innings for the year.

But I believe Abreu will still get it.

[the 'stache]

I tell you guys, Paxton is going to be a good one. If I'm a team in the American League West, I'm going to start hating to face the Mariners. King Felix is out of this world, and he's still young, only 28. Paxton is looking great. If Danny Hultzen can come back from surgery, I still think he could be a really great pitcher. But the guy that I think is going to be absolutely scary is Taijuan Walker. Once he gets his control in the Majors, look out.

This rotation would be sick

Felix Hernandez
Taijuan Walker
James Paxton
Danny Hultzen

[the 'stache]

That's a mighty nice looking card.

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by Runscott

Paxton has been amazing so far. If he achieves close to a best case scenario of five starts with 6-7 innings each, maintains his current ERA and gets 4 or 5 wins, he'll have had an incredible year. Given that the other Mariner arms are tiring, Paxton could be a major star in the post-season, with only around 80-90 innings for the year.

But I believe Abreu will still get it.

Agreed. He's been a stud. But I think he wins it only because Masahiro Tanaka got hurt. He was having a spectacular rookie season.

12-4 18 starts, 2.51 ERA. 135 K, 19 BB in 129.1 IP. 9.4 K/9 IP and a really outstanding 7.11 K:BB ratio. 1.005 WHIP.

His ERA was inflated by his last start, when it was clear during the game he was hurt. He gave up 5 earned runs in 6.2 IP. I'd say that he was also affected the start prior when he gave up 4 earned in 7 IP. Before those two starts he was 11-3 with a 2.10 ERA, 127 K in 115.2 IP. 0.951 WHIP.

That was one of the most dominating first halves of a rookie season from a pitcher in some time!

[packs]

Amongst real rookies, even with a best case rest of the season for Paxton, Dellin Betances has been a beast and to me he would be the winner.

Betances: 80 IP, 120 K, 21 BB, 1.46 ERA , 13.5 K/9

Shoemaker has been incredible too, especially for a 27 year old rookie. 14-4 and the savior of the Angels rotation. If ROY were more of an MVP type award I think Shoemaker would be the clear winner.

[Runscott]

I forgot about Tanaka, but Bill forgot to put Iwakuma in the Mariners rotation, so we're even. At the beginning of the year, Paxton was the 3rd prospect out of himself, Walker and Hultzen. And he didn't make the larger full-MLB lists. He's got a great fast ball and curve and his control is even better than last year. Just a matter now of whether or not the other teams will figure him out after a few more looks.