T206 ed walsh blue old mill sgc 30!

[CMIZ5290]

Already been discussed in a long thread from the national. I know this seller well and have done alot of deals with him in the past. I am convinced this card without a doubt is the real deal, and i am considering trying to structure a deal to purchase it. I know it's almost impossible, but i would really appreciate any thoughts or comments as to the estimated value. I have already spoken with dave, and we both agreed to post this.......thanks in advance

[ullmandds]

Some lunatic(s) will probably pay 50K+ for that thing!

[atx840]

Is it value protected via SGC? 10-20k.

[Phillies*phan]

Well, someone paid $20k for a "only known example" of a Piedmont 350. So it needs to be at least $21K.

[benchod]

Seems like outing the deal here may not work out in your favor;
i.e. Bidding war

[ullmandds]

problem is...someone like me...who has no interest in the card will give an honest answer...whereas someone who's interested...like Kevin...would obviously prefer to hear low estimates?!

[Bicem]

what does SMR say?

[cobblove]

For being a tough back and of a new color I think this will help give you an idea of value.
A regular old mil is worth about 1.25x premium.
Because it a blue I think that adds another 2x to the equation.

So what ever a SGC 30 Walsh goes for just times that by 2.5 and I think both of yall will come out with smiles on this deal.

This was a joke.

a 1of1 the only way to know is at auction I feel. Its the only one so its hard to price as nothing like it has sold

[Matthew H]

Originally Posted by Bicem

what does SMR say?

[CMIZ5290]

I should have known that posting this on net54 would be a 100%, no doubt about it, absolute waste of time..... I must admit, i was warned by a couple of people.

[Rob D.]

If that card were offered in REA or another major auction, it's realistic to think it would bring at least $40,000-$50,000.

[Jaybird]

I would definitely think north of $20K. $20-40K would be my estimate. Just depends who wants it at auction. How many high rollers want it after it hits $20K?

[g_vezina_c55]

Anyone have a picture of that card?

[sb1]

Most of the "high rollers" are not variation collectors, nor upgraders, they focus more on completion of extremely difficult sets. Many of them could care less what's on the back.

Edited to add, I have held the card and louped it front and back and feel it's legit, even after I first had reservations.

[canjond]

Originally Posted by Jaybird

I would definitely think north of $20K. $20-40K would be my estimate. Just depends who wants it at auction. How many high rollers want it after it hits $20K?

Call me crazy but I actually think the card would be worth more if another surfaced... This would give a bit of legitimacy to the card. Right now, I feel like it is hard to discount the fact that this may just be a freak because of the failure to change ink, color fading, etc. I know back collectors can pay crazy prices, but I can conceivably see this card being a $10k or less card.

[Matthew H]

Originally Posted by CMIZ5290

I should have known that posting this on net54 would be a 100%, no doubt about it, absolute waste of time..... I must admit, i was warned by a couple of people.

I don't think it's a waste of time, people who know about the set are giving you real answers. I too think it's probably around 50 K. I think that's a crazy number, and a realistic number at the same time.

[wolf441]

I can't see paying $40-50K for the card. Once you are talking that much money, you're competing against some other really nice choices. I know that I'd rather be able to say that I owned a $50K T206 Plank than a $50K T206 Old Mill Blue back.

[Bicem]

I'd put the over/under at $25k.

[sportscardpete]

Over 25k. Not sure if you were hoping to hear of something like less than 5k, but I think that card is worth over 25k.

[mrvster]

alot of great answers so far......another found would legitimize it possibly....i don't feel this is a 50 k plus card......i find brown om much more appealing , since brown om are actual printers scrap....if this was a hand cut card, i would put it at 25 k or better......if blue om were comparable to brown om and other examples were found, especially hand cut as if off a sheet the printer was experimenting with ink, then the skys the limit...


but, that is not the case with this card...

i put it at 5k-10k purely as a curiousity




.....why has it been held a secret for this long????????????

i'm not feeling this one ....through my ignorance with it... please forgive me, and in all due respect....it just doesn't" do it for me".....

only one man 's opinion, and you know what they say about those


Kevin, wish you all the luck with this card...i dont know the seller but wish him luck also....




Please let us know what the hammer is!! don't hold out

[bbcard1]

I could not rationalize it going above the cost of a Plank in similar grade, which is 30 K or so? I am sure someone else might point that it is less numerous. i would say it is less significant in my eyes, but both are pretty cool.

[g_vezina_c55]

Originally Posted by bbcard1

I could not rationalize it going above the cost of a Plank in similar grade, which is 30 K or so? I am sure someone else might point that it is less numerous. i would say it is less significant in my eyes, but both are pretty cool.

A sgc30 plank value is arround 30 to 40 k yes. But i think it is more near 40 . 30k for a sgc30 is a great deal.

[t206blogcom]

$20k-$50k? Give me a break. I wouldn't give you $50 for it.

[Matthew H]

Originally Posted by bbcard1

I could not rationalize it going above the cost of a Plank in similar grade, which is 30 K or so? I am sure someone else might point that it is less numerous. i would say it is less significant in my eyes, but both are pretty cool.

Value is in the eye of the beholder, though. The guy that might possibly spend 30-50 K on this card probably already has a Plank, but I personally can't rationalize spending more then a couple grand on the card. I was guessing much higher because I'm sure, at the national, the seller already received offers between 5 and 10 K and didn't take any of them.

[teetwoohsix]

Originally Posted by t206blogcom

$20k-$50k? Give me a break. I wouldn't give you $50 for it.

I'm still not sure how SGC could grade this being the only example known. I mean, what are they comparing it to? Especially when there are reprints with blue OM backs WITH factory #'s, and they don't say reprint.....in a recent thread there was a scan of a red OM back, factory# and didn't say reprint.

I don't know, I didn't see it in person, and am skeptical by nature-but I'd have to pass on it as well. More power to whoever buys it, let the force be with you

By the way-if it's not PB blue, what T206 blue would you compare this with? Piedmont? Uzit?

Sincerely, Clayton

I can guarantee an offer was made at nationals for 30k+ cash. They are a board member also. If they want to make it know that's up to them. So Kevin if your thinking below that I'm not sure. You never know though. Good luck on the deal.

[obcmac]

This card still blows my mind. The front looks fake...flip it over, and you have a blue background...and that convinces people that it's real? A fake looking front and a previously unknown back? And people are talking 30K on it? I think this is the moment when the cool printing freak collectors officially go insane.

If you did a simple test of the text on the front...say take text from 50-100 t206's...and mix a couple good fakes in there...like the reback/fronted impossible combinations...and most skeptical collectors rank this card as the most likely to be fake. That's based on the front...and now how does a blue back make you feel? Better?

I also dislike the 'shade' variations...red to orange (except for the t210's), black to brown...etc. So yeah, a legit blue wouldn't impress me much. But if it were candy apple green, then I'd give 10K ;-) (patiently waiting for one to appear...I'll give it a month before one is "discovered")

Mac

[bcornell]

Originally Posted by obcmac

This card still blows my mind. The front looks fake...flip it over, and you have a blue background...and that convinces people that it's real? A fake looking front and a previously unknown back? And people are talking 30K on it? I think this is the moment when the cool printing freak collectors officially go insane.

A lot of us got a close look at it at the National and I didn't hear one person say it wasn't legitimate. As far as the mania over back collecting, I'm with you.


Bill

[Leon]

I am a back collector but not necessarily of a variant color (at least at the price level of the T206 color variations). I would guess this card to be 25k-40k in auction and 30k is probably close to the mark. Just a guess on my part though.

[obcmac]

Originally Posted by bcornell

A lot of us got a close look at it at the National and I didn't hear one person say it wasn't legitimate. As far as the mania over back collecting, I'm with you.


Bill

That astounds me really...don't know how to link the thread/pic of it or I would. The font on it is BLACK, it has artificially rounded corners, the color looks off...and it has a blue old mill back. Now tell me again why you would think it's real??? What I look for on fake t206's...font color/style, unrealistic wear, coloring,...and maybe a back that is known to exist. The Walsh fails all of these tests. I'm not saying it's a terrible fake...but I would say it's a fake on the front alone. 100 times out 100, I'd call it a fake. Then add a blue old mill back??? I need to get into the card printing business...

I think that something so unique requires an extra burden of proof. This card fails a normal test that I do on my $10-$15 t206's. No history behind the card, fails the most basic tests, looks amazingly similar to blue old mill repro's that are out there...and people want to say it's real?

Mac

[Jaybird]

Originally Posted by obcmac

That astounds me really...don't know how to link the thread/pic of it or I would. The font on it is BLACK, it has artificially rounded corners, the color looks off...and it has a blue old mill back. Now tell me again why you would think it's real??? What I look for on fake t206's...font color/style, unrealistic wear, coloring,...and maybe a back that is known to exist. The Walsh fails all of these tests. I'm not saying it's a terrible fake...but I would say it's a fake on the front alone. 100 times out 100, I'd call it a fake. Then add a blue old mill back??? I need to get into the card printing business...

I think that something so unique requires an extra burden of proof. This card fails a normal test that I do on my $10-$15 t206's. No history behind the card, fails the most basic tests, looks amazingly similar to blue old mill repro's that are out there...and people want to say it's real?

Mac

Have you held it in your hand?

[irishdenny]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

problem is...someone like me...who has no interest in the card will give an honest answer...whereas someone who's interested...like Kevin...would obviously prefer to hear low estimates?!

Peter, I think your 1st post was an honest one, Really!

[Exhibitman]

Unless you've held a card in your hand and examined it in person it is simply impossible to give an educated opinion on whether it is a counterfeit. The skill level of the people on this board who've spoken up and at SGC who've seen the card in person is about as high as you can hope for in this hobby and if all of them are confident that the card is a genuine T206, then it is either the greatest forgery of all time--which I find it hard to believe would be anything but a Wagner--or genuine. I don't find that that inconceivable that in all of the thousands of sheets run for this set with dozens of backs in various colors that someone somewhere in the sequence ran a sheet with the wrong ink.

As for what it is and what it is worth, it is not a variation needed for a master set [which I define as an intended change by the mfg], it is an error card. It is worth whatever someone will pay for it. My SWAG is about $5,000-$10,000 but I could see a couple of well-heeled collectors beat each others' brains out for it and push it substantially higher.

I'd have taken the $30K in cash [provided it was actually cash] at the natty and gone on a spending spree...

[obcmac]

Originally Posted by Jaybird

Have you held it in your hand?

Not yet...I think it's common to think a card is real, then hold it and think it's fake...rarer to say a card is fake, then hold it and think it's real.

I stole this scan from the old post on the card. It's a better young reprint with the blue old mill back. This card was sold as a fake...with a blue old mill back...and it still looks better than the walsh. Does anybody think the Walsh looks better than the young?

[atx840]

[Matthew H]

Now that I see it again, I think the dealer should've took that 30 K.

[g_vezina_c55]

I didn t hold the card in my hand so it is hard to make my opinion. And i also have 100% confidence in SGC .

For the price i am not a back expert so i have no idea of how much this card can bring at auction but it is extremely interresting to see it.

[ullmandds]

Obviously that Pic Chris posted is blown out(white from flash)...but what's up with the seemingly disappearing border on upper 1/3 of the rt side and also seen in a similar spot on the left side.

[teetwoohsix]

I've been staring at the lettering in the words "Base Ball Subjects" and "Large Assortment" for awhile now, and looking at the back of the known Young blue OM reprint, and looking at the same words on the back of this Walsh blue OM, and am noticing something similar- squiggly lines on the same letters (i.e. the "E" in "Base" and the "E" in "Subjects").... the "A's" the "T's" and the "B's".......maybe it's just my eyes though.

Sincerely, Clayton

*edit to add,,,may not of explained what I meant well enough-I'm talking about uniformity and characteristics(sp?) of the same letters of the same sizes

[steve B]

Originally Posted by obcmac

Not yet...I think it's common to think a card is real, then hold it and think it's fake...rarer to say a card is fake, then hold it and think it's real.

I stole this scan from the old post on the card. It's a better young reprint with the blue old mill back. This card was sold as a fake...with a blue old mill back...and it still looks better than the walsh. Does anybody think the Walsh looks better than the young?

Yes. The print quality is very different.

While the color of the name and team can be a red flag, black or very dark brown is not a solid indicator of a fake, especially on a computer monitor where so many things affect the displayed color.

Steve B

[packs]

I still think its fake. The black lettering, the known reprinted back color, the weird wear and the fact that these blue reprints have been around for at least 20 years which is the same time the owner has said they've owned the card are all red flags to me. Then again SGC is the best no doubt. I would not make an offer on the card but that's just me.

Edited to add that even the seemingly one of one freak printing errors like ghost prints and cards printed with only yellow and brown ink or cards with huge splotches across their fronts and even cards with crazy over printed backs all appear in multiple examples of cards from this set.

[frohme]

I put a lot of faith in the board members and experts that have seen and held the card and deemed it legit. Everyone of you has more experience than I do in cards in general and T206 in particular.

That said ... while its hard to make a call from only seeing the posted images, my gut reaction from the front only was "it doesn't look right". Can't precisely explain why, but so be it - I'd pass on it as anything more than a curiosity.

--
Mike

[jujudrum]

Mike, i agree with Your second point, though i am also one who has not seen this card in person.

However, over the course of 4+ decades, i've seen and owned more than my fair share of T206's, and based upon the scan alone, there is something that just doesn't seem right about this card.

Hopefully my impression is incorrect.

[Exhibitman]

I could not make a judgment off an atrocious photo like that.

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I could not make a judgment off an atrocious photo like that.

Next time I will get some professional equiptment for pics then.

For all you Nay Sayers I can say probably 100% of you have not even seen more than a pic. I have personally held the card raw, louped it, and hit it with a black light. Unless someone recreated the lithograpy spot on I will stand behind SGC and everyone else that handled the card. All that have seen it say its good. That solidifies it more than the guys looking at a computer screen saying no.

[packs]

I think people have a bigger issue with the lack of a reasonable explanation for how such a card could have been made in a sole individual printing. As I said every printing anomaly, even the most extreme of them, seem to have at least one other example except this card.

[teetwoohsix]

Originally Posted by Pup6913

Next time I will get some professional equiptment for pics then.

For all you Nay Sayers I can say probably 100% of you have not even seen more than a pic. I have personally held the card raw, louped it, and hit it with a black light. Unless someone recreated the lithograpy spot on I will stand behind SGC and everyone else that handled the card. All that have seen it say its good. That solidifies it more than the guys looking at a computer screen saying no.

I guess I'm a Nay Sayer so I feel compelled to respond. I have not seen the card in person & have never attempted to discredit anyone who has. Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, mine is just different than others-and I am no "expert" by any means- but I have learned enough over the past 4-5 years to have hesitations about this card.

I guess people get annoyed that EVERYONE doesn't just accept the card because the majority already has-especially after SGC gives it their stamp of approval. In most cases, I would be on board with this scenario. My gut is holding me back- I don't know what else to say. A good friend from this board saw the card at the National and he also said it looked real. I HIGHLY value his opinion- but I am still skeptical.

This may sound stupid-but- did anyone who held the raw card "smell" it?
Just curious. And, by the way- card doctors know how to get around the "black light" and the "loupe" by now-ask Kevin S. (he responded about this card in the other thread).

I mean no disrespect to ANYONE who has seen the card in person and believes it to be real, I just want to be clear on that.

Sincerely, Clayton

[teetwoohsix]

Originally Posted by packs

I think people have a bigger issue with the lack of a reasonable explanation for how such a card could have been made in a sole individual printing. As I said every printing anomaly, even the most extreme of them, seem to have at least one other example except this card.

+1 Yes

Sincerely, Clayton

[NYHighlanderFan]

Maybe I missed this in a previous thread. But if an original regular Old Mill T206 card was placed directly in the hot sun, back side up for a long period does the black ink turn blue from the UV? I know black ballpoint kinda fades to a dark purple after a while. How about setting it under some sort of artificial light for a very long period of time? Just some crazy thoughts...considering sunlight will fade the paint right off an automobile.

By saying you need more than one for proof you are saying all single example cards are discredited. The hobby has left no stone unturned looking for the Tango Eggs Cobb and finally one surfaced after Several years of heavy debate and discussion. So that card is fake also till another surfaces?

Yes I smelled the card. Sounds weird but the simple fact I use a wrap around loupe the card(s) are always extremely close to my face. You also can't deni the fact that the card has the floral lithography characteristics. The simple fact that by SGC slabbing this card would destroy their reputation if it came out to be fake is a pretty big issue as well as some of the most respected names in the hobby staking their reps on this as well. It's hard to deni the facts but as always when the herd goes right there is always those few that stray right.