Black Swamp Find - PSA E98 Population Report

[Leon]

So we can have a view of what is being discussed, and by popular demand, here is the PSA Population report for E98s.





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[t206hound]

If my calculations are correct, 50% of the PSA population is 7 or higher (including those with qualifiers).

[barrysloate]

I assume there are at least multiples of each of the 30 cards, colors aside? In other words, how many complete sets can be made from the find? It seems that the distribution is uneven.

[Matthew H]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

I assume there are at least multiples of each of the 30 cards, colors aside? In other words, how many complete sets can be made from the find? It seems that the distribution is uneven.

They found 28 different, no complete set. Only one Matty, Jennings, and Tinker (I may be off here) and no Lajoie or Walsh.

[Jaybird]

Looks to me that the magic number is 22. if you look at the players PSA 6 and above and look at the multiples, 22 keeps popping up.

Looks like Mathewson might not be there in high grade.

[Matthew H]

Originally Posted by Jaybird

Looks to me that the magic number is 22. if you look at the players PSA 6 and above and look at the multiples, 22 keeps popping up.

Looks like Mathewson might not be there in high grade.

Heritage:

"Of the 30 players from the E98 series the collection offered 25 players in duplicate, a trio represented by a single example and two players (Lajoie and Walsh) mysteriously not represented."

I was guessing which cards were represented by a single copy.

[E93]

This will probably produce crazy registry competition for nice examples of the ones not included in the find.
JimB

[Rob D.]

No Lajoies. That's a shame.

[barrysloate]

Thanks Matthew. Looks like there will be tons of Near Sets- 25 cards or so- but no more complete sets than before. But the number of collectors who can upgrade an existing set will be limitless.

[barrysloate]

The pricing will be all over the board. The PSA 10 Wagner will surely set a new record for a caramel card and will be well into six figures. But if you can settle for a Wagner in a 7 it will be so easy to find and very affordable. And what about the commons where there are 20-40 of each one? They won't be too expensive either. Man, this is a fascinating find.

[Matthew H]

Originally Posted by Rob D.

No Lajoies. That's a shame.

Maybe, since they were in Ohio, the Lajoie cards were given away to kids.

[scooter729]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

The pricing will be all over the board. The PSA 10 Wagner will surely set a new record for a caramel card and will be well into six figures. But if you can settle for a Wagner in a 7 it will be so easy to find and very affordable. And what about the commons where there are 20-40 of each one? They won't be too expensive either. Man, this is a fascinating find.

For the ones with 20-40 of each, it might be something similar to the Tango Eggs cards, where you see NM cards going for $500 for the common cards, but much higher for a player where less cards were found.

Obviously I'm not sure about it at all, but super curious to see how this pans out....

[Jaybird]

Originally Posted by scooter729

For the ones with 20-40 of each, it might be something similar to the Tango Eggs cards, where you see NM cards going for $500 for the common cards, but much higher for a player where less cards were found.

Obviously I'm not sure about it at all, but super curious to see how this pans out....

I was thinking the same thing. Reminding me of Bescher and Jennings from the Tango set.

[barrysloate]

Yes- the Jennings and Bescher Tango Eggs was the first thing that came to mind. But in this case, 20-25 cards out of 30 are like the Jennings and Bescher. Before this find finding a high grade E98 common for a type set was a challenge. You might come across a 5 or 6, but a 7 would be really tough. Now you will have 700 to choose from. From that perspective high grade commons may be cheaper than T206 in a similar grade.

But what about the Ty Cobbs graded a 9? Those won't be cheap. Yet one has think that 46 Wagners are going to cause a big price drop. Very difficult to assess value here. This is going to be volatile group of cards. Still, maybe the most unusual find in hobby history.

[pcoz]

I have two Wagner 4's in both Orange & Blue. I wonder what those values are now and will be later. It's debatable, but many believe in valuing cards you look at demand then rarity. I do think the other colors will draw attention after this high end group is sold.

[4815162342]

There have been a few awesome finds over the past few years, whether it was the T207 Red Cross Lowdermilk that walked onto the Antiques Roadshow, or the Just So Ewing found nailed inside the wall of a house, or now this. The hobby continues to provide excitement. But it must stink to be tbob.

[ullmandds]

It seems to me the cards that were hardly present in this find will become even more valuable and expensive... whereas the more common cards will depreciate a la tango eggs beschers!!

[Bosox Blair]

I'm holding out for the Brown Swamp find of Gem Mint E107s....

Cheers,
Blair

[robw1959]

Pete, who graded your orange E98 Wagner? There is only one of those in the PSA pop report and that is a PSA 2.5
--Rob

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by pcoz

I have two Wagner 4's in both Orange & Blue. I wonder what those values are now and will be later. It's debatable, but many believe in valuing cards you look at demand then rarity. I do think the other colors will draw attention after this high end group is sold.

Value is directly proportional to demand over supply in a dynamic setting, with these values subject to nearly constant change. However, many overlook the fact that the supply portion of the equation is not the total number in existence at any given time, but the number that are or are likely to become available in a given, reasonable period of time. Pure collectors, such as most of the members of this board, tend to purchase and hold for years, decades, quarter and half-centuries, as opposed to speculators and pure investors, who, in looking for the quick and profitable flip, tend to hold for only as short a time as necessary, thereby increasing the available supply for the defined reasonable period of time. It was for this reason that the most prolific writer in the coin collecting field, Q. David Bowers, deemed the collector "king."

In my view, prices may drop for the short term, but will not take too long to rise again, as most of these gems are likely to be put away in short order and removed from the marketplace for many years.

Best wishes to all--interesting post!

Larry

[ScottFandango]

Originally Posted by Matthew H

Heritage:

"Of the 30 players from the E98 series the collection offered 25 players in duplicate, a trio represented by a single example and two players (Lajoie and Walsh) mysteriously not represented."

I was guessing which cards were represented by a single copy.

this find really messed up this set....glAD IM NOT A COLLECTOR IF THIS SET

[ScottFandango]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

It seems to me the cards that were hardly present in this find will become even more valuable and expensive... whereas the more common cards will depreciate a la tango eggs beschers!!

THERE ARE FEWER Bescher E90-1 than Tango....

Steve Soloway completed the e90-1 set minus one card....The Bescher!

[pcoz]

Originally Posted by robw1959

Pete, who graded your orange E98 Wagner? There is only one of those in the PSA pop report and that is a PSA 2.5
--Rob

Here are my orange & blue Wagners....

[E93]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

The pricing will be all over the board. The PSA 10 Wagner will surely set a new record for a caramel card and will be well into six figures.

The PSA 10 black swamp Wagner sold for about 250k. A PSA 9 E93 Cobb sold for 274k privately about five years ago. So the Wagner has not set a record yet.
JimB

[DeanH3]

Originally Posted by pcoz

Here are my orange & blue Wagners....

Fantastic cards Pete!

[pcoz]

Thanks Dean!

[T206Collector]

Can someone look at the PSA and SGC pop reports now? Looks like Heritage is potentially having some graded by SGC now to keep the perception of a market flood lower. Am I right about that?

Update: found them, but how can the PSA pop have gone down since 2012?

SGC
http://www.sgccard.com/PopulationRep...px?setid=16834

PSA
https://www.psacard.com/pop/baseball...8-set-30/36067

[swarmee]

The pop report would go down if they were crossed over to SGC or cracked out and the flips returned to PSA.

[bn2cardz]

I do know that the PSA report increased by at least one when I crossed my SGC to PSA.