Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?

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Posted By: barrysloate

Looks like those cards sold for well below expectations.

In my just concluded auction the PSA 7/7.5 T206's all sold for less than I expected. Something is happening in this area.

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Posted By: Charlie Barokas

T206's

In my opinion, these cards sold cheaply because most were graded over 10 years ago and looked low-end for the grade. Before I am attacked by those that own PSA cards from 10 years ago. I should qualify the statment to add, not every card graded 10 years ago is a slider but many of the high-end cards from that era were reviewed and upgraded. Therefore, it is natural overtime to see only the mid to slider cards remaining in old-holders. Also, the standard for grading T206's has changed. Many of the PSA 8's that Steve Novella represented on ebay had centering issues, mostly top to bottom. The market treated those cards like high-end 7's rather than 8's. It is a positive to see many choosing not to only buy the holder blindly.

Check out SCP's last auction, T206 commons (graded very recently)in PSA 7's & 8's sold much stronger. Centered mid-pop (recently graded) T206's are still $2,000 give or take.

CB

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Posted By: Lee Behrens

I think many of these cards not only had centering problems but measuring problems. I hate to even look at T206 PSA auctions of 7 or above too often I see cards that seem to have questionable measurements.

Lee

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Posted By: Charlie Barokas

Lee,

Did you give your username and password to your brother?

CB

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Posted By: Charlie Barokas

Lee or Jay,

If you care, measuring is the least affective way to ascertain successful trim jobs (any person with scissors can cut a T206 in half). A quality trimmer is most likely looking for an oversized card to cut down to the correct 2 5/8 measurement (top to bottom).

There are many T206's that measure less than 2 5/8 (top to bottom) and are completely original.

CB

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

I think most of us predicted that the high pops would sell and only the occasional low pop card would sell -- which is exactly what happened. I don't think that anything that occurred really changed the landscape of the price structure of high grade T206s.

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Posted By: Lee Behrens

Charlie, Did I mention trimming, NO. But I question the appearance of the cards measurements. Is it a good possibilty that the cards have been trimmed, yes. Are all trimmers smart enough to find oversized cards? If you can knowingly get cards past graders even if they are short, would you trim to clean up corners. If you so not think that there is some preferential treatment to some by PSA than you are really blind to what is going on. If you want to turn a blind eye to the shortness of the cards, go spend your money on them and be happy. I for one will not. You guys can defend this all you want but I know you want to get the best bang for your buck and getting a higher grade on a question card is no way of getting more money.

As far as T206 cards being short, when did this happen I have been around these cards for 25 years and handled at least 2000 of them and never seen any size difference. Make me as ignorant. There sure seems to be more of them in highgrade holders than in low grade, now why is this?

This is my Guiheen mini, not graded trimmed, but SML, minimum size not met.



Charlie, so you want me to give jay my name and password? It sure would be nice then the rest of you can continue to hear his rantings other than me.

Lee

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Posted By: Lee Behrens

Jeff it did show that the market on high grade cards has fallen. As Barry stated it seems par for the course for everything but the scarce stuff.

Lee

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Posted By: Cobby33

In any event, it was a market-defining event, as predicted - maybe not in the same predicted direction, but the premise was correct.

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

All it takes is a couple of Registry guys battling it out for 10 high grade cards in a set for the world to think prices are going through the roof. Once the buying stops, card prices come back to earth.

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Posted By: Charlie Barokas

Lee,

I counted about forty non-sequiturs in your last two posts? What does preferential treatment have to do with the size of T206's? 2000 T206's in 25 years? There are over 500 cards in the set. Crandall's got 2000 T206's in PSA 8. I think you might want to check out another 2000 before you draw any meaningful size conclusions. T206's as with most pre-war baseball cards come in many sizes. You are wrong to suggest that because a card is short in the holder that it must be altered. When was the last time you saw any high-grade PSA card that you thought was not altered? Why don't you just come out and say that every high-grade PSA card is altered and then you don't have to render your opinion redundantly everytime somebody is kind enough to show some of their beautifully unaltered high-grade PSA cards.

Respectfully,

CB

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Posted By: Lee Behrens

Charlie, about half of them I do not have a question with. You keep putting words in my posts, I have written that I said they were trimmed. My conclusion is that many of them appear to be short thus I in my mind I say I say "Why are these short and why are so many high grade PSA T206's short?", I want nothing to do them those cards. Gee Charlie even PRO has some cards that are not altered.

Just consider my knowledge and expertise no where in your class in your eyes. I don't claim to be the creme de la creme of T206's but I have been around long enough to have clue about what to shy away from. Your cute little comments about my 2000 cards in 25 years, just is another class statement that ever one loves on the board. I have handled that many because I need to turn these cards to be able to buy more. Gee isn't that what you do.

You can have all your high grade PSA cards and be happy with them that is your choice I choice to have nothing to do with them even if I could afford them.

Why bring Jim Crandall into this he has nothing to do with you. I am sure if I was able to get together with Jim he would have no problem with showing me his collection and I would have no problem questioning and of them if I feel they warrant it.

Lee

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Posted By: Charlie Barokas

Lee,

I have no problem with you personally. But your flippant comments regarding most/all high-grade cards that you see have to be altered is tired.

You seem to think this is a class thing? If it is then have an equal amount of respect for high-grade cards as you would like for off to mid-grade.

I am not a high-grade collector but I see the value and importance and beauty of both high and mid/off grade cards.

You can be passionate about what you collect without being dispassionate for what others collect.

Respectfully,

CB

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Posted By: Sean BH

Here is what I read from Lee:
"Charlie, about half of them I do not have a question with"

Charlie:
"...your flippant comments regarding most/all high-grade cards that you see have to be altered is tired."

I think Lee didn't say most/all.

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Posted By: Charlie Barokas

Sean,

Fair point. I guess I was not referring to that post. But rather to the reactions from the Behrens boys over the last couple of years every time somebody posts a high-grade card.

Do a search on "Marshall Fogel". Read the responses every time he was kind enough to display some of his collection.

Once again nothing personal, I wish Jay the best and enjoyed sparring with him but I do think high-grade cards get an unfair shake on this board.

CB

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Posted By: leon

In your best professional estimation what percentage of high end PSA (8 and above) pre-war cards are in holders that have issues of being altered?

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Posted By: Sean BH

I understand that there are size differences in all T206 cards, but to me it's a bit interesting that far more high grade (7 and above) are on the shorter side.

Maybe they're trimmed? Maybe since they're a bit shorter they were protected by the larger cards in the stack/collection?

**Edited to add - I think high grade cards do get an unfair shake on this board. Partially I guess since there values are so much higher they are under greater scrutiny (like many things in the world that carry a premium).

Sean Bh

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Posted By: Lee Behrens

Charlie,

Nice to see you blow my comments out of proportion, you do realize that it has been a few years since I even chimed in the subject and I still feel the same way now as I did than, because I have seen no evidence to sway my thoughts on the matter. Please read the whole post when replying, your responses reflect what you thought I wrote and not what was written, as Sean has pointed out.

I always love when you get responses such as your in situations that bring it to light far beyond what it should get. The people will make decisions for themselves. You make Jay and I out to be they great influenatial force. If that's the way you feel great, but each person makes up his/her's own mind.


I would like to hear your answer to Leon's question, also.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Leon,

About twice as many low-mid garde cards have been altered vs high grade.

Actually the keen eyes of Mike Baker reviewed all of my cards and thus none of mine have been altered.

In all seriousness, I think Charlie's comments are ridiculous--noone is not bidding on these cards because they think they are high end 7s or trimmed. My last big sale of PSA 8s was over $100,000 in PSA 8 cards and I sold them sight unseen.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Jim- regarding your comment that more low and mid-grade cards have been altered than high grade, where did you get your statistics?

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Posted By: T206Collector

<<My last big sale of PSA 8s was over $100,000 in PSA 8 cards and I sold them sight unseen.>>

Pre-war? Because I'd agree with you that PSA 8 1960's Topps or later don't need to be seen to be confirmed as untrimmed. Pre-war on the other hand would be a risky venture unseen.

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Posted By: Cobby33

Barry-
Probably the same source that predicted that the sale of those high-grade cards would be epic.

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Posted By: Charlie Barokas

Lee,

Once again not trying to get you fired up, just taking the other side of your "1/2 of all high-grade cards are altered" comment. In fact, that is very optimistic of you, I thought you thought they were all bad.

Leon,

I cannot say how many are trimmed in the holder. I can say that there have been a few large finds of high-grade t206's, so it is probably not as uncommon as people think to see original 8's. The last SCP auction was a great example of that. The T206's were from a find in "New York". Most were found over-sized, with beveled edges and believe it or not they had sharp corners.

Jim,

I have heard your collection is awesome. My point was more to the fact, that overtime alot of the high-grade examples graded in the 1990's made there way into higher holders, GAI 8.5's or SGC 92's. A collection that has sat for 10 years could have many high-end examples. And I agree Mike Baker has an amazing eye and my utmost respect.

CB

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Posted By: JinCrandell

I meant to say I sold over $100,000 worth of T206 psa 8s sight unseen.

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Posted By: Al C.risafulli

Wow.

I would say that anyone who will pay $100,000 sight unseen for ANYTHING that you can't live in, either A) has a LOT of money, or B) has a screw loose. I can't fathom having enough cash that I would lay out six figures without knowing what I'm getting, regardless of WHO gave it a seal of approval.

I'm all for high-grade collecting, but I can't help but be judgemental against someone who would throw that much money around in such an irresponsible way.

That said, good for you, Jim - I'm glad you got to be the beneficiary.

-Al

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Posted By: Frank Wakefield

I don't understand this.

It's my impression that some of the cards sold, and some did not.

Did the market get "defined" or "redefined"? And if so, how?

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Posted By: PAS

Like Jim I am of the opinion that card alteration is not limited to high end cards. There is just as much incentive, or at least enough incentive, to turn a 2 into a 4 or 5, or a 3 into a 5 or 6, as there is to turn a 6 or 7 into an 8.

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Frank, Steve Novella put a bunch of high end T206s out on ebay at ridiculously high prices in an attempt to get some of the top Registry guys to bite; just a couple sold. The more reasonably priced cards were sold.

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Posted By: cmoking

IMO, the market gets defined every week with the slew of card sales through auction houses, ebay and direct sales. These T206s were really no different.

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Posted By: barrysloate

And I am finding that sale prices are based almost entirely on who is bidding. That is why it's not unusual to see price fluctuations from one auction to another.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Jeff,

Ridiculous? I disagree--these are pop 1 psa 8s in the most popular prewar set that exists. Hopefully the seller can hold out--if they remain pop 1s or 2s price in my opinion can only go higher.

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Posted By: MVSNYC

jim, i also love PSA 8's, but the simple fact is that none of the big set reg guys bit at the 1/1- 8's priced at $10,000 (Don L, Don S., Scott I.)...but as i expected, they went after some of the 1/2 & 1/3 pieces they needed at $3K & $5K...

the bottomline is 8's are soft now...this "big event" just confirms that for me. i was buying PSA 8's 2 years ago at $2500-3500...now those same cards are in the $1200-1800 range.

for those out there who buy as an investment, the lessen is buy low, sell high, i guess.

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Well, they were ridiculous prices for the reasons Michael said: the high registry guys ignored them. Jim, as you know, for the few guys we're talking about price is usually no object for a card they want. That they passed on these cards due to the out of this universe prices does speak for itself.

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Posted By: barrysloate

That's why I haven't bought into the notion that PSA 8 material can only go up.

Sure, there is always a demand for quality. But in the case of set registry cards, the prices realized are often way out of proportion to their real value. If two guys want to fight it out head to head and set a world's record for a pop 1 or 2, that is an extremely unreliable way to gauge the market.

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Posted By: Frank Wakefield

Thank you Jeff, Barry, Jim and all...

I've got it, I think. Novella's auctions define the market as one that has only a handful of folks willing to pay big bucks for PSA 8 T206s, and that the market price for such high grade cards is below where most of these cards were priced. It also shows that there are more PSA 8 T206s out there than there are folks willing to pay 10k for them, I'd think.

The auctions (since there were several, it wasn't just a sale of one card) were an opportunity to see how many buyers were out there for that kind of money. And I see that that DOES define where the market is currently for these cards.

Thank you, guys.

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

I'd love to see what would happen if these cards were put out without the artificial reserve; a few might actually sell at those prices in the heat of a real auction. At least we would know the true value of low pop, high grade T206 commons.

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Posted By: T206Collector

...but I will restate that no one is saying lower grade cards don't get altered. But there is no incentive to trim a card with a wrinkle because it will still have the wrinkls. A T206 card with sharp corners and a wrinkle is still a 3. Similarly, with a 3 or 4 with rounded corners and a wrinkle, pressing the wrinkle out is still going to keep you at 3 or 4 depending on the corner rounding.

However, you can take a 4, 5, 6 or 7 with rounded corners and no creases and make that baby an 8 if you can microtrim it well enough.

It is not that there is no incentive to alter lower grade cards, or that it doesn't happen -- the point is that you can jump many grades (FROM 4 TO 8!) if you know how to artfully trim a card with rounded corners and make the corners sharp. That is a huge jump with just one kind of alteration that we all know takes place.

Finally, if you include in your definition of "altered" removing glue and gunk from the back of cards by soaking, or erasing pencil marks with art erasers, then yes, there are a TON of low grade altered cards in the market. But what most of us mean we say that PSA 8 pre-war cards have a higher risk factor, we are saying that there may have been microtrimming done -- no one is microtrimming creased 3's. Moreover, PSA and SGC encapsulate the soaked and erased cards, but they are not supposed to encapsulate the trimmed ones.

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Posted By: MVSNYC

looks like steve is being smarter this week and starting his HOF PSA 7's at faily resonable starting bids...should be some nice action on these cards.

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Anyone notice how soft the prices were for Steve Novella's T206 PSA 7 auctions tonight? Many were bought at discount prices by other dealers just for resale purposes.

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Posted By: Eric Brehm

The prices realized weren't too bad. But maybe there were too many cards turned loose on the market at once. There are people who can afford $1,000+ high grade T206 HOFers but maybe they have a limit on how many they can buy at a time. I did notice also that some of the buyers were dealers so we may see some of these back on the market shortly.

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Posted By: Wesley

Prices on the PSA 7 HOFers were very soft. Many were sold to dealers so we will see some of those cards again soon.

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Posted By: barrysloate

The PSA 7 T206's in my last auction were likewise soft. Looks like a trend, not an aberration.

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Posted By: Eric Brehm

All of the cards in the auction went for more than SMR value but less than double SMR; that is about what T206's have been going for lately. About 2/3 of the cards were in my opinion a bit weak for the grade (centering, etc.). So I don't think the results were particularly 'soft'. We didn't see any huge battles over any particular cards, but as I said before maybe that is partly because so many cards of the same type hit the market at the same time, giving buyers lots of choices. Barry your last auction had one PSA 7 T206 in it, plus a couple of GAI 7's; that probably isn't enough data to establish a 'trend'. I don't think the sky is falling.

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Posted By: Joe D.

T cards appear to be softening -

but I don't see E cards softening... actually it seems they are doing quite the opposite.



The big name players seem to be holding up and moving forward as well.



I don't think the hobby / card values are softening... just certain cards moving in and out of favor.


At this point... I think I would prefer a softening (as I am pretty much done selling and will look to start buying again)... but I am not going to hold my breath.



(This is just my general feeling as a hobby participant - I have no hard numbers to back it up)

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Some of the stars went for over 20 percent less than what they have previously.

And the fact that so many were purchased by dealers really does underscore the lack of collector interest in my mind.

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Posted By: MVSNYC

i have an explaination for these "soft" prices...

Don Spence & Michael Wachs (Little Fella) were clawing and battling to complete their sets in as many PSA 7's (or higher) that they could obtain, over the last 2 years or so, and the prices of 7's were going crazy, commons especially...they both are near completion (Michael has a second set that he is almost done with as well)...so the prices have chilled...

Don L. & Scott I. do NOT collect 7's...only 8's & higher...so they usually are not a factor at that level.

my 2 cents.

now that i'm not collecting 7's anymore, it's just our friend Jeff L. who is the big dawg chasing 7's hi jeff!

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Posted By: barrysloate

Eric- I didn't intend to use the term "soft" to mean the sky was falling.

It was just a simple observation that the 7's are not as strong as they might have been say a year ago. Michael pointed out a plausible explanation for it.

I know I had a small sample but when you are running an auction and looking at bids from the inside out, you recognize which lots are being fought over and which ones don't seem to be getting as much attention as anticpated.

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Posted By: Eric Brehm

Barry -- fair enough. I'm sure with all your experience in the hobby you have a good feel for what is going on.

The only trend I see is that T206's are generally selling for somewhat less this year than they did last year. Maybe that has something to do with certain well-heeled individuals completing their sets, I don't know. About a year ago some of the nicer cards were selling for double or even triple book; SMR subsequently made an upward adjustment in their estimates and now the range seems to be more between book and double book. Last night's auction results fell into that range and that is what I would expect to see in the near future. There will always be plenty of exceptions above or below that depending on who is involved, the quality within grade of the particular cards for sale, etc.

By the way Scott Ireland did buy three of the PSA 7's last night, so I guess he was a factor in those cases.

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Posted By: Joe D.

I like it!

Does that mean we can refer to Jeff as 'Big Dawg' when we get together?


"Pass the dinner rolls please, Big Dawg."



We are gonna need a name for Barry. Maybe "Consigliere".

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Posted By: MVSNYC

my new name for barry is:

"the brooklyn crusher"

p.s. Eric-

let me rephrase my statement...

scott ireland USUALLY adds 8's & 9's to his set, i guess if he sees a 7 that will fill a hole in the meantime, then he'll get it...