PSA Population Report- How Accurate?

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Posted By: Marc S.

If you believe in the 'free market', if you will, the PSA population report loses some of its value [as well as the SGC report, etc.]. After all, although it is a guide as to the relative rarity of certain cards over others, the absolute population should not have a huge impact on the relative demand side of the equation.

If you have a T-206 card in PSA 8 with a population report of seven - the market should, to some extent, bid on the card irrespective of population. If there are only four or five examples, instead of seven, the number of collectors who want/need that card to fill a hole doesn't change. If four of the five examples are already spoken for on Registry sets, or what not, there is only one example available in the public for sale.

At the end of the day, population reports are a good starting point for the relative rarity of a card. But the true test of value, as is always the case, is what someone is willing to pay for it. And if you have a handful of deep pocket collectors who need the card for an upgrade, and there has not been an example in the public for a few years, they are going to pay what it takes to win the card, independent of what the population report may say...

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Posted By: barrysloate

Good point Marc, and of course the market is the final determinant of what a card is worth. However, most people who sink substantial money into anything want as much information about that product as possible, and they want it to be accurate. In this case the pop report is as critical a piece of information as any, yet there is a distinct possibility it is not accurate at all.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

I still think that for high grade cards, that the pop reports are broadly accurate. I have probably resubmitted less than a tenth of 1% of all the psa cards I have and none of them were psa 8s or better. Usually it was a card that came back as altered and I didn't agree. Saying that, my experience has been that for people with a sharp eye that the rate of bumps has been pretty high.

My recommendation for buying vintage cards would be to look at the smr, then look at the pop and then check vintagecardprices.com(I think thats the name) for where the card has traded in recent sales). After all that is done you also have to figure how many well-heeled collectors are completing the set. In football I try to consider whether MOSH or Shopping Lucy will go after the card. In baseball I have found that it is a good idea to just step back when guys like Louchios and Spence are building their sets. Recently 1959 Topps low pops have gone for amazing prices as several collectors battle over the low pop cards.

It does make it easier if you are working on a lot of sets so you can back away from the hot ones.

Jim

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Posted By: Frank Evanov

I never let population reports influence my bidding, unless of course it is a population one of one.

I too have cracked out many PSA 8's and submitted them multiple times in search of a 9. The price difference can be in the thousands, so I think it's well worth it.

Frank