1951 Toleteros Gibson on Leland's

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Posted By: Hal Lewis

How can the prices be "insane" when you so logically and precisely explained why the Gibson prices are completely justified??!!

If the free market dictates a price... then by definition it can't really be insane...

unless the majority of card collectors who make up the "free market" are insane!!



Although... if you read this board long enough... you might end up believing that EVERYONE is insane.

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Posted By: leon

Rumor has it that more of the Gibson cards are being found....which would hurt the prices a little bit....No matter what we say value ALWAYS is determined by supply vs demand.....

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Posted By: BlackSoxFan

Hal -
You make some excellent points. They are certainly valid and well considered. Let me also state that I know my knowledge of any of these sets is FAR inferior to that of some who post on the board.

I think the 1949 Leaf Ruth falls closely to the Gibby. However, there are some key differences. I will also add that I think the 35k is 'bogus' as well. Yes, I know an item is worth what someone is willing to pay for it. That doesn't mean it is a well arrived at decision. Nonetheless, let me explain my points as to the differences and rationale behind my point:

1. Time of Issue/Presence in The set:
Ruth died that year. The card was clearly issued as a marketing tool/tribute to someone that transcended all aspects of the game and some aspects of society. Tribute cards have been produced by numerous companies any number of times, as such I don't feel that the "Ruth" card is misplaced in the set. I think THE Lajoie card is much more unusual as it was 'thrown' in after the set was issued. I do not believe that Gibson (although he has grown in lore) falls into this category.

Back in the 1950's, (although someone alive then could certainly speak to this better than I) I do not think Gibson had much of a following to the 'general' card/baseball fan. He was certainly known in particular circles; but, as an extension of this fact, there are many collectors/fans/hobbyists who have never heard of Gibson today. I seriously doubt the same can be said for Ruth. Gibby died in '47. Toly's were certainly issued before '51 so why the wait?

I think these points explain to some extent why Ruth was included in the Leaf set. Gibson has no place at all in the Toleteros set. From what I understand, he did not play in Cuba except for a winter ball league in 1938 (or close to that). I don't think noone else in the set was dead at the time of issue (Although I'm not sure about that). So why is Gibson in the set in the first place? If Topps had produced a 1978 Gibson card in its' regular set, do you think it would have the same value if it had the same fate as the T206 Wagner (especially if this Toleteros didn't exist)?

2. Place w/i the set/value to set:
The 50-51's have no other premium cards in the set. You have some key cards which those pursuing the set will pay more for, and perhaps a great deal for, but the market for Cuban baseball cards does not touch on the market for 48-49 Leaf cards or 1933 Goudey's or any other issue that might have a 'major' tribute card in it. A collector is likely to have interest in a DiMaggio or Robinson '48-49 Leaf even if they don't collect the set. You might find a grade junky willing to drop some dough on one of the other guys in the Toleteros. The Leaf has its' own set of stars. The leaf also has a great deal of provenance and mystique w/i the hobby. Other great players exist in the Leaf set. It was the first issue for the company and contains "true" rookie cards of some great players. What can really be said about the Toleteros set?

3. Misconception of Rarity/Value
I still have yet to understand why, for the most part, people seem to equate rarity to value. The two often operate independent of one and other. Let's say my parents had opened a print shop in 1953, caught wind of Henry Aaron, and produced a set of his Jacksonville Team. Now lets say they printed up 2 complete sets but for whatever reason they never 'went to market'.... I think you see where i'm going with this. Just b/c something is printed and there aren't a lot of them, does not mean it is valuable. Granted, I will cede the concept of 'eye-of-the-beholder', but I still just don't get why this particular card is so valuable.



Regards,

Black Sox Fan

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Posted By: craig

I'd be cautious before dropping big bucks on the the Toleteros Gibson.
For the longest time I believe Ryan had the highest graded, an sgc 80. There were a couple of sgc 50s known. Now in the past few months Lelands turns up an sgc 88 and a psa 7. Wonder how many more high grade Toleteros are out there.
I think this auction will be telling as I expect this psa 7 to sell for equal or less than the sgc 50 recently did.

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Posted By: Hal Lewis

Craig:

Leland's has informed me that this PSA 7 was once slabbed in an SGC holder...

so this could account for why it SEEMS like there are more of these out there than there really are.

I asked Leland's to have SGC REMOVE the old card from their Pop report... but it has not yet been removed.

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Posted By: craig

Hey Hal,
I agree pop reports are misleading particularly given crossovers and resubmissions.
Please don't be offended I'm not taking a shot at your sgc 88 Gibson.
I just agree with Leon that as the known examples increase in number I expect the price to be negatively impacted especially the mid to lower grade examples.

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Posted By: Al Crisafulli

"Insane" meaning "really high", not "insane" meaning "ridiculous".

Sorry for the slang.

Then, you wrote:

"unless the majority of card collectors who make up the "free market" are insane!!"

Of course I can only speak for myself, but knowing a handful of people in the hobby, this might be a safe assumption to make as well.

-Al

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Posted By: Hal Lewis

Craig: I wasn't offended at all. You are absolutely right in that more cards = more supply = lower prices.

I was just pointing out what I had been told by Leland's in regards to why there is now a PSA 7 that "suddenly" appeared.

Turns out, it has existed all along... but in a different holder.

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Posted By: will watson

i find it absolutely hilarious that Hal defended his Honus advertising card (or whatever it is) as being Wagner's only true rookie using the exact same logic he's now using to discredit the Gibson postcard

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Posted By: Hal Lewis

Wrong, Will.

I am of the belief that the Gibson postcard was made for Gibson PERSONALLY to use and hopefully to order MORE from the photographer. The only name to appear on the card is that of the photographer. The postcard is not an advertisement for anyone or anything except the photographer himself.

The Reccius Wagner card was NOT made for Wagner by any stretch of the imagination. Nor does it in any way publicize the photography studio who took the picture. The card clearly advertises for a product, and is clearly meant to be kept by the consumer and used to promote the product. It was NOT meant to be given away or mailed away again by the consumer.

Two totally different items.

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Posted By: davidcycleback

Hal, I hear Cuba and Venezuela have government warehouses filled with Latin
American baseball cards. From what I've heard, Castro and Hugo Chavez
have given secret orders that if either is assasinated by the CIA, the US
market will be immediately flooded with Toleteros and other Negro League
cards.

There's a similar rumor about warehouses of original Jean Shrimpton
photos in London to be used in case Mr. Bean is assasinated, but the details
are a bit more sketchy on this one.

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Posted By: will watson

Hal, you have absolutely no proof of any of your claims. until there is solid evidence, nothing you're saying is anything more than speculation. and its speculation that always benefits your investment and collection. you've contradicted yourself on several occasions, including this one, the Just So Young, and Mordecai Brown Allegheny arguments in the past. your rookie card "rules" only apply to cards you don't own. funny.

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Posted By: Hal Lewis

I have no proof of any of my claims???

What the heck are you talking about???

LOOK at the Gibson postcard for yourself. Front and back. The ONLY thing printed anywhere is the name of the photographer.

LOOK at the Reccius Wagner card. No photographer named, but the ADVERTISER is prominently named.

Those are not "claims" -- they are facts.

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

So the Gibson PSA 7 sold for 23K last night -- has any card ever fallen in value as fast as this one?

It would seem that whoever bought it didn't so much get a STEAL as the last ones who paid multiple big bucks for the cards were ROBBED.

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Posted By: Hal Lewis

The PSA 7 (that was once in an SGC 84 slab) card sold for $27,000 total.

The highest graded 1951 Gibson is not one but TWO grades higher (86, 88) than this one was...

so the expected price for an 88 would be about $54,000.


BUT...

because the 88 card is the ONLY one of its kind known to exist in any grade higher than an 84...

people pay a big premium for this fact.


$70,000 compared to $54,000 is not that much of a premium to pay for the "best known" example of any card.



Therefore, I don't know how you can make the conclusions you make... especially since I own the 88 and can tell you for a fact that I wouldn't sell it right now even if someone offered me more than I paid for it.

On the other hand, I am not stupid... so I admit that the entrance into the market of an SGC 92 or 96 of this card might very well drive the value of mine down.

Or, it might not, since people might just end up having to pay MORE than $70,000 to own such a card.... especially since I would be bidding on it.



But the best news of all is that I am a collector and quite frankly don't care if one of my cards drops 15% in value or gains 15% in value. They aren't going anywhere forever, so what does it really matter to me?

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Posted By: Peter_Spaeth

I think until the dust settles on how many of these cards there actually are, or how many Leland's has uncovered (and others have heard the same rumor mentioned by Leon), it is very difficult to know where values will end up. EDITED TO ADD Is anyone publicly acknowledging that they purchased the PSA 7 by the way?

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Posted By: Joe P.

As of this moment:

It is now Official!

Anyone into portfolios and stocks that have experienced a slightly softened market in their investments, will as of this moment officially be classified as COLLECTORS! ---

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Posted By: Bottom of the Ninth

As long as one "entity" controls the market it is impossible to know what the true value is of the card. Let's not forget this thread http://www.network54.com/Forum/153652/thread/1127851084/last-1128335780/The+Josh+Gibson+on+Ebay Without implicating anyone, it would appear that the final value of recent examples have not gone without some kind of manipulation. Who knows if the PSA 7 really sold at the final hammer price.

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Posted By: Josh Evans

First I want to thank everyone who bid last night. The auction was great success and we look forward to the action tonight.

If you want to know how many Josh Gibson’s there are why don’t you just ask me?
Lelands had a total of five. There was one 8 ($70k), one 7 (sold last night) and the rest are lower grade (4 or less). The higher grades are really impossible because of the backs.
There are about 5-10 in other hands (closer to the bottom number than the top I believe).

Whether that is a lot of cards is a matter of opinion. It depends upon demand I suppose. In the end I believe people will realize how great this card is. The only known card of arguably the greatest to ever play the game is something special. Please don’t tell me about it being a tribute card because in my opinion that is a little silly (we’re not talking about a 1973 Topps Babe Ruth here).

There are a lot of people that love this card. There are also a lot that don’t (which is great, making it controversial). Some may not like it because this is a new thing and they don’t understand it (fair). The Latin collectors (who understand it best of all) love it universally which is the best meter.

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Posted By: BlackSoxFan

Josh -
Not to pick a fight, but out of curiousity...what would you define this card as? Thank god we don't have to argue about whether or not it is a card. It was produced after his playing career and after he passed away. Not to mention, he seems arbitrarily placed in the set. Nobody has educated me as to the rationale behind his inclusion in the set. Once again, this is not to "spark" an argument from people that have nothing better to do. How could you not call this a Tribute card?

Regards,

Black Sox Fan

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Hal, you seem a bit defensive. Clearly you are from the school that if you own a stock, the price of which is cut in half, your net worth isn't reduced until you actually sell the stock. Also, there is at least one other assertion you made in your last post which I disagree with.

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Posted By: Hal Lewis

This is clearly not a "Tribute" card.

It is clearly an "Homage" or "Memorial" card!!



(Hey, I can joke, since it's my "Medal of Honor" card)

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Posted By: Hal Lewis

Jeff:

I am from the school of thought that says:


If you NEED the money, then you had better INVEST it wisely.

But, if you have some extra money that you will NEVER need, then you can spend it however you want and not worry about it. You can collect acorns with it if you like.



Believe me, baseball cards have NOTHING to do with my retirement, my nest egg, my portfolio, my life insurance, etc. Likewise, spending on baseball cards in no way affects my ability to tithe to my church or give to charities.

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Posted By: Cat

I am not sure you can make an argument of the long term value of the card dropping. Together with Hal's argument of the premium paid for the best known example is the known glut of high end cards appearing on the market at once. It appears that prices have been driven down... I would guess VERY temporarily and not specific to this card... but more specific to Lelands auction following so many other auctions.

As a comparison to the stock market, one time, as a relative youngster, I asked my grandfather why our GE stock dropped significantly after a moderate "crash." Afterall, I told him, GE is a GOOD company. He mumbled to me: "when they raid the brothel, they take the Piano Player too."



Edited to correct typos unless otherwise noted.

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Posted By: Peter_Spaeth

I thought this was a thread about the Gibson card, not personal wealth.

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Posted By: Hal Lewis

Peter:

Please. My thread was not about "personal wealth" any more than was already common knowledge. I don't think anyone thinks that I am using counterfeit money to put together my collection.

It was only (once again) to clarify that I am a "collector" and not an "investor"... regardless of what some people want to believe.

This is a hobby for me and a LOT of other people. Nothing more.


Unfortunately, it is the people who "need" card values to keep going up that seem to be the most bitter and resentful on this board.

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Posted By: Bottom of the Ninth

Peter,

It is about the Gibson card. Hal has already told everyone numerous times that he never speaks about money issues. Stop reading into the thread.

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Posted By: leon

I'm gonna have to put all 3 of you into a time out corner

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Posted By: BlackSoxFan

I've posted 3 times in the post, ALL ABOUT THE CARD...funny thing is... everyone seems to talk about everything else but the card.

Regards,

Black Sox Fan

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Hal, just curious: in your last post, why does the word "need" to be in quotations?

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Posted By: identify7

Cards which are issued after a player's career has ended are all grouped together (well, in my mind, anyway). I do not differentiate between those issued 5, 10, 25 yrs., etc. after his career. Heck, they usually all portray a picture of an active player.

The hobby though does differentiate these issuances, as evidenced by prices associated with numerous post career examples of Ruth, Jackson and others.

This status makes as much sense to me as false rookie (FROOKIE) cards do. I wonder if this fascination has staying power.

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Posted By: Peter_Spaeth

Hal whatever your intent, a statement to the effect that all the money I spend on cards is just play money is going to be construed as a statement about your personal financial situation, and surely you must see that. I for one am more interested in your opinions on the merits of the Gibson card.

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Posted By: BlackSoxFan

THANK YOU GIL ...

Interesting thought. This card has for me is the same as the Playball Jackson card. Many collectors think of that card when they think of a jackson baseball card. It came out 20 years after he stopped playing. I would have no problem with the Gibson card running between 500-3000 for most examples (as the jackson does) and getting up into the 20k range for the highest known example.

Regards,

Black Sox Fan

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Posted By: jay behrens

One of my favorite quotes about the stock market I believe came from Sam Walton when asked what it felt like to lose a $1 billion in one day. He told the reporter to ask him that question when he lit a billion dollars in cash on fire.

Jay

I've just reached Upper Lower Class. I am now officially a babe magnet for poor chicks.

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Posted By: identify7

All the money I spend on cards is just play money.

I do not see the above statement as testimony regarding my net worth, nor my disposable income.

IMHO Hal is being criticized for being open regarding his collection, acquisitions, ponderances, policies, strategies, and more. And in my opinion, we are all lucky that so many of the members of this Board can afford so many different nice cards, and that they openly share them with us. Hal is not alone in this. There are numerous participants here who acquire more value in cards within a month than I obtain in a year.

But that is ok too: because no one really cares whether I do not have much money, or whether I choose to spend it on other things. Unlax, enjoy, it is good.

It is only cards.

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Posted By: warshawlaw

Too bad it was Jim Gilliam

But seriously, I prefer the PC to the Toleteros for two reasons: (1) it was made, issued, whatever, during Gibson's career and (2) it is real photo. I just think it looks nicer. I also think Hal has a great card (sticker, whatever) in the Toleteros Gibson and if he is happy with it, WTF, leave him alone. Finally, it also seems to me that after 30 years of doing this, I have yet to regret buying a single vintage card; I have many, many regrets about the ones I've sold. Seeing that N150 Sullivan with all the miscutting and faded image fetch over $1,100 yesterday in Lelands made me sorry I traded off my SGC 50. Until I looked at my 1917 Zeenut Frank Chance again. Ah, the stuff dreams are made of...

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Posted By: Peter_Spaeth

To me, the Toleteros has the look and feel of a baseball card while the postcard does not. I think it can be distinguished from the 48L Ruth and 40PB Jackson on the basis that they had many cards issued during their career but Gibson did not have any (unless you count the postcard). EDITED TO FIX TYPO

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Posted By: Hal Lewis

Anybody know how the Toleteros were issued?

Were they in cigarette packs??

Certainly the presence of the Gibson card in the set could be explained by the company's desire to sell a LOT of cigarettes while people "chase" the legendary player's card.

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Posted By: Chad

It just is. (The Toleteros are cards, not stickers. You had to use glue to put them in an album, just like you would with '87 Topps.) The greatest catcher of all time, and very possibly the greatest player. He hit .370 with power after he had gained 70 pounds and was shooting heroin every night. And that Toleteros is all we've got. One of the top ten cards in the hobby, easily. IMHO of course.

--Chad

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Posted By: BlackSoxFan

I could not even begin to imagine calling this card one of the hobby's 10 most important cards issued. It's a Tribute card. As i said, I could issue a pretty nice set of Negro League baseball cards today with my printer and some spare time. Even if i did so with the intention of making them honest an representation of a "Baseball Card" it does not make them valuable. Even if I produced 10,000 10 card sets and managed to only produce 1 Gibson ... they still aren't valuable. Rarity does not equal value. I wouldn't pay more for the Toly than I would any other HOF card from the early 50's.

Regards,

Black Sox Fan

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Posted By: Andy Baran

My understanding is that they were issued in small packs of cards. They were not issued with any tobacco or candy products. Also, they were issued in PUERTO RICO, not Cuba as mentioned in an earlier post. Also, they are cards, not stickers. There was an album issued with them, but you had to GLUE them into the album yourself. There was never any adhesive issued with the cards. There are lots of latin american cards incorrectly labelled as stickers in the price guides.

For what it is worth, I believe that Gibson was issued for the sole reason that collectors in Puerto Rico wanted a card of him. Surely the producers of the set knew that it had been a number of years since he played on the island, and that he had passed away several years before the cards were issued. There are 2 earlier Toleteros sets, and neither of them have a Gibson card.

I personally do not have interest in the Gibson card (at least not at today's prices) due to it's timing, but I completely understand why so many collectors want one, and why they are willing to pay high prices for them.

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Posted By: Chad

I happen to consider it one of the top ten cards in the hobby. Yes, it was created after his playing days, but it was created because the people who saw him play for years wanted a card of him. The card was created and sold within Gibson's millieu and, if it came several years too late, it just makes the issue of the card more bittersweet, and, for me, interesting. Personally, I'm not all that interested in the Blacksox, but to each their own.

--Chad

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Posted By: identify7

Heroin every night is fine. Just don't take steroids.

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Posted By: Peter_Spaeth

Do people consider the 1969 Topps Mantle a "tribute" card? It was issued after his last season, and indeed notes his retirement.

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Posted By: BlackSoxFan

Chad - I'm not sure why you took a jab at the Black Sox and my personal collecting habbits, especially since I did not attack you or your habbits. One has nothing to do with the other. Why people try and pick fights is beyond me. Back on point ... How do you consider a card produced after a person dies to be in his 'milieu'? The guy was dead. I cannot imagine the card getting much more out of Gibson's element than that. I am curious to hear your response. I do have one request to make, if you cannot keep it in the spirit of the discussion, then feel free to keep your opinion to yourself.

Regards,

Black Sox Fan

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Posted By: Hal Lewis

I have an interesting question:

Instead of being produced in Puerto Rico... what if this card had been issued by LEAF in 1949* (along with the Paige card) and was exactly as scarce today as the Paige card is?

*This would still be after Gibson's death in 1947.



Worth less than the Toleteros card is now?


Worth more than the Toleteros card is now?


No difference to any of you?

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Posted By: Mark

I think Jeff might have been comparing the sale price of the PSA 7 Gibson to that of the SGC 4 Gibson that ended on 10/2/05 on eBay (rather than to the SGC 8). I think even Hal would agree that $27k for the PSA 7 is unexpectly low considering that the SGC 4 sold for $25.6k.

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Posted By: Chad

I think phrases such as "I can't imagine" come off as more condescending than you intend. If you don't appreciate the Gibson card as much as I, or others do, that's fine. There are a lot of cards people go gaga for here that I don't have any particular interest in, but I can usually see where they're coming from and would certainly never tell them I can't imagine the value they place on it.

As for the Gibson: Look, we're not talking about a Fleer Greats of the Game refractor or a Helmar brewing card. It was a card released in a place Gibson had recently played to sate the demand of fans who had recently seen him play. For them, it was a living card. I'm not arguing that the card is not a trubute card, I'm arguing that it doesn't matter, that there even is a tribute card of him is, in fact, remarkable. He was that good. He was that much a giant to those who saw him play. To me, that's a freakin great card.

--Chad

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Posted By: BlackSoxFan

Chad -
As you clearly cannot stay on topic i have nothing left to say to you. I still can't imagine putting the gibson card in the top-10 and you love it. Great, done & let us move on.

Hal -
I think that's an interesting question. I'm not sure if you are comparing it to the Page card or not. Regardless, I put a great deal more value on the Page than I do the Toly. I can't imagine the "value" of a Josh Gibson card being much higher than this. All things considered, I would have to say that it would be relatively the same. I would even think it might go a tad bit higher as many people in the hobby have may have never heard of the card because of its' rare issue.

Regards,

Black Sox Fan

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Posted By: Peter_Spaeth

I don't think there is any question that all else equal, it would be worth more as part of a mainstream issue.