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  #1  
Old 02-15-2011, 09:53 AM
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David Atkatz David Atkatz is offline
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Originally Posted by barrysloate View Post
David- I've always respected your knowledge in this hobby, and know you are an expert when it comes to Yankees memorabilia. And I know you put alot of time and effort into getting that knowledge.

But it's hard for me to look at the autograph hobby as anything but a very dangerous place to hang out. I never did collect autographs, and was never crazy about selling them. And I found this article truly frightening.
Thanks very much for the kind words, Barry.
It's only frightening, though, if you rely on third party authenticators.
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  #2  
Old 02-15-2011, 10:26 AM
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I have to add my 2 cents. I have been collecting autographs for 25 years getting most of mine form the source - in person - so I know what I got. I do sell at times and found that if you have a JSA certification, your profit opportunity is greater. While I tell people I got the autograph myself, that is not good enough since there crooks on ebay that say the same thing. So, I bring some every now and then to Sports Shows and get stickers on them. I have found they do get some wrong. But again, it is only their opinion - I know what right or wrong (since I get the myself). Any expert in any field can occasionly get it wrong - just need to be right more times than wrong . But I just wanted to say - "it is what it is". If you are collecting autographs (just like anything else), rely on your own knowledge - learn and be your own expert. You will enjoy the hobby more.

-Ray
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  #3  
Old 02-15-2011, 10:44 AM
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Default Jsa

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Cards on the other hand can be bleached, trimmed, glue removed, paper added
If you know what you are looking for these are easy to spot in almost all cases. Hell I cant even tell you if I signed something I change my signing so much. to claim an autographs authenticity is easier to determine than cards almost makes me pi$$ my pants laughing.

Also i would much rather a company reject good stuff as bad than grade bad stuff as good.
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Old 02-15-2011, 10:49 AM
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My two cents...Every collecting genre has their "trusted-experts". Whether it be cards, coins, stamps or comics. A place of trust. While it's wonderful to go the AuctionAlert way and stand up and say "if you trust a third party authenticator, you are a fool", but what would happen if "the-big-two" went down? What would that mean for the hobby as all these "anti-two" companies and crooked authenticators would remain? Certain uncertainty.

If you go through a reputable auction catalog that has been authenticated "by-the-big-two", the smartest people in the business will probably shake his/her head at certain items saying "how can that be passed?", but a large majority of the items in the catalog will be authenticated with the correct decision.

The only problem is that the item/s you are most offended by will sell for $75,000, while if it was authenticated by a "pass-anything-authenticator", it would have only brought $800, giving too much power to the reputable authenticator. Mathewson ball, anyone?

Autographs are unlike any collecting genre as all you need to begin your business is a pen and blank piece of paper and that's it, and people have absolutely ruined the joy for many (including myself who stopped collecting ten years ago) because it's so simple to make a decent living being a thief as the government is too busy with other things.

It's all about opinions, but can there ever be a perfect authenticating firm? No. An authenticating firm that can get it right even 90% of the time? Doubt it. Will there always be doubters and will "good items fail" and "bad items pass"? Of course.

In closing...the people who educate themselves have always had the advantage in anything in life and if you have chosen to live and breath this business (as many do and have and I have), you know what is going on.

DanC
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Old 02-15-2011, 11:09 AM
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David- Ideally, every autograph collector should study the field in detail and become his own expert in determining authenticity. But in the collecting world not everybody wants to do this. Some prefer to pay an expert a fee to authenticate for them. That's why, for example, people hire a broker to sell their home rather than do it themselves; they don't want to have to deal with all the legal hurdles and want the professional to take care of it for them.

But if it turns out that the experts are not so good at what they do, it's going to drive many collectors out of the hobby. That's just the nature of the beast.
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  #6  
Old 02-15-2011, 12:30 PM
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Default Authentication errors

The article is not just pointing out authentication errors--no one expects 100% accuracy--but the ONE-SIDEDNESS of one authenticator's errors. Every authenticator has an error rate, and if you are really conducting analyses these errors should be randomly distributed. The whole point of the article is that the errors here are not randomly distributed, but distorted by bias (everything from one source is good, everything from another source is bad).

I would bet you will find similar biases in card grading. I have never seen a grading population report, but I would bet it does not fit a normal (i.e., bell curve) distribution. My hunch is that large, favored customers cause grade inflation at the highest grades.

The question for anyone buying anything (and particularly autographs, because the rate of fraud is higher) is this: can you survive your mistakes?
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Old 02-15-2011, 12:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sphere and ash View Post
I would bet you will find similar biases in card grading. I have never seen a grading population report, but I would bet it does not fit a normal (i.e., bell curve) distribution. My hunch is that large, favored customers cause grade inflation at the highest grades.
No truer statement could be made, imo. I bet if I went to get the Gretzky/McNall T206 Wagner graded it would come back without a number
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  #8  
Old 02-15-2011, 12:37 PM
tinkereversandme tinkereversandme is offline
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Well put Dan and Barry! It's no different than any field -housing, medical, insurance, our leaders and the political system- and we come to depend on the expertise of those who went through the channels (and don't these guys just compare signatures for a living?) and if we find out that they are anything but experts, that's when the issues start and opinions begin.

AA tested Spence and Spence failed and showed how ignorant his outfit really is. Did AA test PSA/DNA and if AA did, did they pass and this wasn't mentioned? And if JSA and PSA/DNA went down, would there be another company courageous enough to be experts and what would become of all these items in collections with their certificates if judged a second time to be suspect? This is all a shame and yet another black eye for the hobby and you can count me as a former collector as well.

Regards,

Larry
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  #9  
Old 02-15-2011, 03:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by barrysloate View Post
But if it turns out that the experts are not so good at what they do, it's going to drive many collectors out of the hobby. That's just the nature of the beast.
Barry, when I was a young child, and would complain about what my mother served for dinner, she would say in her droll Jewish sarcastic way, "Good. More for me." She wasn't going to fight with me--this is dinner. Take it or leave it.

I feel the same way about the "collectors" you speak of. If they're not willing to educate themselves, it's fine with me if they find something else to acquire--and I mean acquire rather than collect.

Fewer people to fight with come auction time.

Of course, I'm a collector, and not a dealer ;-)
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Old 02-15-2011, 03:17 PM
barrysloate barrysloate is offline
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There are plenty of collectors who don't educate themselves. This is a hobby known for impulsive buying.

Last edited by barrysloate; 02-15-2011 at 03:17 PM.
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  #11  
Old 02-15-2011, 05:59 PM
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It is unrealistic to suggest that there is no place for third party experts in a collecting field. If everyone had to be an expert before starting a collection there'd be about 10 collectors in the world because the vast majority of people simply would not devote the time and resources to learning in advance of buying that first item. As is the case with many things in life, many people do not have the time to become expert-level at autographs but still would like to own an item signed by a childhood hero or other meaningful figure, so there is a place for an authenticator in the collecting world.

There is no way that an authenticator will get it right every time--no human ever does. What I take away from the article as the troubling conclusion--if true--is that JSA did not fairly analyze the items in question.

As for false negatives and false positives, I am more comfortable with an expert who says he can't tell from time to time because autographs ain't manufactured items--they vary widely depending on the situation. I've shown these before but it bears repeating here: I got the first of these Lewis autographs in person, a friend got the second one at a different event:





I seriously doubt that an authenticator could deem them both genuine but they are.
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